The Hart is very much a most points/narrative award.
Drai just won it last season and some of the narrative there that helped his case was the 7 games McDavid missed, how he kept the Oilers afloat, and of course had 13 more points in those 7 overall games.
This season is different.
McDavid hasn’t won it for a few seasons despite being the best player in the league since he won his first (missing the playoffs and missing games last year are huge reasons why he is Hart-less since 2017-2018).
That helps going into the season. Add to the fact that he’s led the scoring race for most of the season and he’s of course ahead of Drai, there will be little support for Drai as a finalist. Perhaps enough votes for top 5, but I just don’t see enough to be a finalist, particularly if Crosby plays as well as he has been for the remainder of the season.
McDavid will be the deserving winner. Drai’s level of play over the last 2.5 seasons would see him win it outright every year and at least be a finalist otherwise, but narrative wise will see Kane, Crosby, and possibly Barkov finish with more votes. And of course there will be votes cast for MacKinnon which could bump Drai out of the top 5.
Drai has an uphill battle from here on out where he can continue to be the second best player in the league, but see lesser players win the awards because only McDavid being out will let people give him credit.