What's your Carlson walk away number?

[Ridley Simon]

8x9.5m is fine with you?

Yep.

 

[artilector]

Couple questions about Carlson. I've only watched him here and there so don't have a full body of work to go from. Everytime I watched him he always seemed reliable defensively and good offensively. Maybe a case of only seen him good.

Would you consider him a 200 foot player or an offensive defenseman?

OEL just got 8 x 8 and is a pure one dimensional defender from everything I have seen of him. Seen him a lot more than Carlson. Maybe a case of just seeing him bad.

I would have thought based off the cap going up to 80 mill approximately and his age + being a 2 way defensemen that can play in every situation... He gets 9 minimum. Maybe even 10.

Is he not a true #1 solid two way right shooting defenseman?

At ES, I see Carlson as a decent but unremarkable top-pair guy, great as a #3 on a good team. And then perhaps his all-situation usability bumps him into solid top-pair value.

 

[islandersdynasty]

Salary cap to increase by $4 million in 2018-19. Might be enough to re-sign Carlson.

NHL salary cap expected to fall between $79.5 and $80 million in 2018-19

 

[Rolo]

Question for you guys..

If Carlson stays, do you think his production dips back to sub 40pts, or will he continue to be a 60+pt player?

He should only be worth 8M+ if he's putting up big offensive numbers like he did this year.

 

[artilector]

Question for you guys..

If Carlson stays, do you think his production dips back to sub 40pts, or will he continue to be a 60+pt player?

He should only be worth 8M+ if he's putting up big offensive numbers like he did this year.

I don't think it really matters if he'll put up 40 or 60 pts, I don't think that's gonna be a significant factor in Caps' decision-making -- they know what he brings. A lot of that variance is due to how the team performs overall, IMO.

If I had to bet, I'd say he scores 50+ next year. The PP should continue to operate fine, and the top-6 got better, which should mean more points for everybody.

 

[HTFN]

Question for you guys..

If Carlson stays, do you think his production dips back to sub 40pts, or will he continue to be a 60+pt player?

He should only be worth 8M+ if he's putting up big offensive numbers like he did this year.

what do you mean "back to sub 40 points", anyway?

even prior to this season Carlson looked like a lock for 50 points in a healthy season.

 

[BobRouse]

Disagree. You're the guy advocating for more youth. Young guys are cheap. You pay the vets to provide the framework and build around that with cheaper young players.

This hurts my brain. I need a tall glass of milk with an orange slice in it

 

[Calicaps]

This hurts my brain. I need a tall glass of milk with an orange slice in it

 

[RandyHolt]

I think someone may offer him 10. All seem fine here at 8. Whats 2M for a team without a 10M winger?

 

[HunterSThompson]

I think someone may offer him 10. All seem fine here at 8. Whats 2M for a team without a 10M winger?

The extra year affords the caps the ability to offer a bit less and still offer the same amount of money. 10x7 is equal to 8.75x8 in guaranteed money. anything more than 8 for 8 years offered by the Caps, he might be foolish not to accept.

 

[Calicaps]

I think someone may offer him 10. All seem fine here at 8. Whats 2M for a team without a 10M winger?

7x10 = 70
8x8.5 = 68

At that point, the question is, does another 2M mean more to him than another year plus continuity and the chance to repeat as SC champs?

EDIT: or what HunterST said. And also, as some others have pointed out, the Caps could structure his deal so he makes ~10M per for the first few years anyway.

 

[RandyHolt]

I think we are closer to 7.8 than 8.5

Guys under contract preach, back to back.

UFAs may say something different. Including, my work is done here, I want a new challenge, or, pay me. That new baby may make him say something different though, and think its key to retaining him.

FWIW I penciled Carlson in for 5M in his 8th year, when calculating the expected total monies he will need to leave on the table to stay here. Probably more like 10M, factoring inflation. That 8th year may be guaranteed, but it may also make him underpaid compared to his peers.

Jersey is damn close to the island.

 

[Hivemind]

Front-loading the deal is something that every team can do (save the handful that don't have the cash to afford it, but they're not going to be players for Carlson anyway). It doesn't give the Capitals any particularly advantage.

 

[BiPolar Caps]

What Victor Hedman got, 7.85 x 8.

 

[Calicaps]

FWIW I penciled Carlson in for 5M in his 8th year, when calculating the expected total monies he will need to leave on the table to stay here. Probably more like 10M, factoring inflation.

You think he’d get ~10M from someone at age 36?

Front-loading the deal is something that every team can do (save the handful that don't have the cash to afford it, but they're not going to be players for Carlson anyway). It doesn't give the Capitals any particularly advantage.

I know. I just mean he doesn’t have to wait to get his money despite the lower AAV.

 

[HunterSThompson]

What Victor Hedman got, 7.85 x 8.

Tough to demand more than that, though they do have the no state income tax deal that benefits him.

If Carlson accepted that, he would roughly get paid only $3,581,562 for home games before federal income tax. Hedman would get $3,925,000. a difference of $343,438 per year or $2,747,504 over the life of the contract.

So 7.85x8 roughly equals 8.19x8 for the take home money to be the same.

 

[Empty Goal Net]

Front-loading the deal seems the smart way to go, as long as a team can afford the cash payout in earlier years. Benefits for the team include 1) facilitating the movement of the player in the later years if performance wanes (cap hit remains the same but cash payout for the receiving team is less than the hit), and 2) making the deal more attractive to the player since he's getting more money in real terms.

Assuming a 4 percent rate of inflation over the next 7 years, $8m in 2025 dollars (year 8) is a little less than $6.1m in 2018 dollars. A salary of $9.5m in 2018 becomes over $12.5m in 2025. A player is much better off with more $ in the early years of a deal.

 

[RandyHolt]

You think he’d get ~10M from someone at age 36?

I know. I just mean he doesn’t have to wait to get his money despite the lower AAV.

Inflation certainly points to closer to 10 than 5. Heck Orpik got 5.5 for age 38, 4 years ago, and was never the player Carlson is. We are talking a full decade later. I doubt salaries drop.

It's never far from my memory bank that Stevens getting 1M was too much. His contract would have been a steal just 3 years later, as contracts exploded.

 

[peterthegreat12]

Lebrun just tweeted out that there is still a lot of work to get done for Carlsons contract. I hope BMac isn't playing hardball, that strategy could backfire quickly as Carlson can start talking to other teams tomorrow.

 

[hockeykicker]

Lebrun just tweeted out that there is still a lot of work to get done for Carlsons contract. I hope BMac isn't playing hardball, that strategy could backfire quickly as Carlson can start talking to other teams tomorrow.

except gmbm himself said the deal was close and done in 24 hours

 

[peterthegreat12]

except gmbm himself said the deal was close and done in 24 hours

Lebrun just talked to GMBM, things do change in negotiations. Think what you want.

 

[895]

Apparently John Tavares has scheduled meetings with 5 teams.

As far as we know Carlson hasn't right? Good sign for us.

 

[895]

Came in under almost everyone's walk away number.

So I guess that has to be called a win.

 

[Calicaps]

Came in under almost everyone's walk away number.

So I guess that has to be called a win.

Works for me. Closing the thread.