....by watching him.
A guy in his mold needs to be shutting down the opposition with his skating and reach, providing physicality and mean at the same time. If he is not consistently playing sound defence and is instead giving up good chances against due to mistakes then he is not ready.
One of Roy's common phrases regarding players recalled or who is going to get recalled is how he says he'll "talk to Dean to see who has been playing well/working hard". If the AHL coach isn't giving a good review of Siemens' play, then there is basically no chance that Roy will recall him.
Ok. But since his performance is very qualitative and not as quantitative, this could be somewhat problematic. Much of what you're describing speaks to playing with passion. If he becomes buried by the mundaneness and rigmarole, his play could reflect that he's detached or lacking passion. Whereas if they brought him to the big club, that could change instantly. And while he might struggle, he could also clean up a lot of issues stemming from being somewhat detached at Lake Erie. I'm not saying that's where it's at now but it could be if he's buried in the muck at Lake Erie too long. It's great for the Avs to say he has to earn his way to the big club, but it also benefits the Avs more if he contributes at the big club and letting him languish at LE too long could easily backfire.
I think a big issue is whether he can back up his physical style at the next level. In other words, is he physically mature enogh to play his style and in turn, have the confidence to play his style. It's a grown mans league. His style of play requires him to be physically ready.
And why is so much faith being put in Dean. Who's to say he doesn't play politics and act out of self interest. There are times when there are incongruities between what's best for Dean and what's best for the Avs. But the bottom line is guys haven't been developing at LE. Is it drafting or is this on the program at LE?
And at the other end of that, what of Roy's reluctance to play younger guys? I don't think this but I've seen this comment. And the bigger issue is whether the players at LE feel this.
Ever hear of the Hawthorne Effect? There was a study at some suburban Chicago factory in the 20s or 30s. They wanted to see what would happen to productivity when they dimmed the lights in the factory. They expected the productivity to go down, but instead, it increased. And they would continue dimming the lights and the productivity continued to go up with each change. There are different interpretations for this but one of the more popular ones (and one I share) is that people perform better when they know others are paying attention. And this is why I think it could be a problem being buried at Lake Erie.
Someone mentioned a change of scenery earlier. I think that's probably more true in Siemens case than most.