Prospect Info: Whats the deal with Duncan Siemens?

[Iracundia]

At this point being a solid #5, physical best type I'd be happy with. Like a Gudas type.

I was thinking the same and it wouldn't surprise me at all if DS followed the same development timeframe also.

 

[S E P H]

If he could just stay healthy. It's tough enough to develop as a hockey player, let alone when you can't stay in the lineup consistently. 83 games in the AHL despite the fact that it feels like he's been down there for 3 years.

I honestly felt that he needed to have a full, healthy season this year and maybe see a late-season callup before maybe making the jump next year as a 5 or 6 guy for Colorado.

Looks like that timeline will be pushed back even further now.

Agreed with this and I would NOT call him injury prone yet as well. He got some freak injures like a knee (which almost every player gets once in his career), which he recovered nicely from (IE his play at camp last fall) and a wrist injury. Those are non preventable injures that just happens to players. Remember that Stastny broke his forearm and bruised his foot blocking shots during one of the rebuilding seasons. **** happens and that does not make Siemens a bust.

He needs playing time and I thought he was having a decent season up til his wrist. Just unfortunate timing, but it sounds like he should be back soon (or some time this season). Lets hope Lake Erie makes the post season, because even if they get swept, more playing time will only help players like Hishon, Pickard, Agozzino, Sgarbossa, Schumacher, Corbett, Siemens, etc. *If Avs plan to keep these guys*

 

[R S]

Agreed with this and I would NOT call him injury prone yet as well. He got some freak injures like a knee (which almost every player gets once in his career), which he recovered nicely from (IE his play at camp last fall) and a wrist injury. Those are non preventable injures that just happens to players. Remember that Stastny broke his forearm and bruised his foot blocking shots during one of the rebuilding seasons. **** happens and that does not make Siemens a bust.

He needs playing time and I thought he was having a decent season up til his wrist. Just unfortunate timing, but it sounds like he should be back soon (or some time this season). Lets hope Lake Erie makes the post season, because even if they get swept, more playing time will only help players like Hishon, Pickard, Agozzino, Sgarbossa, Schumacher, Corbett, Siemens, etc. *If Avs plan to keep these guys*

He had knee injuries issues in junior too so that one is a concern for me. Especially considering it directly impacts his skating, his one main attribute that is potentially NHL-level.

 

[The Kingslayer]

Really rooting for him to make the bigs same with Hishon

 

[umdieecke*]

If they're not expecting big offense from him, how will they know when he's "ready"? It seems problematic in that there may never be that "perfect" time. With him, I'm a little concerned he might flame out playing in the AHL too long with mgt waiting for the perfect time that doesn't exist. It's possible to spend too much time at the kids end of the pool.

 

[tigervixxxen]

He's played like 80 AHL games, I don't think we are to that point yet.

 

[umdieecke*]

It's easy to say that but it doesn't really answer the question. Using games played is also somewhat skewed.

 

[R S]

If they're not expecting big offense from him, how will they know when he's "ready"? It seems problematic in that there may never be that "perfect" time. With him, I'm a little concerned he might flame out playing in the AHL too long with mgt waiting for the perfect time that doesn't exist. It's possible to spend too much time at the kids end of the pool.

....by watching him.

A guy in his mold needs to be shutting down the opposition with his skating and reach, providing physicality and mean at the same time. If he is not consistently playing sound defence and is instead giving up good chances against due to mistakes then he is not ready.

One of Roy's common phrases regarding players recalled or who is going to get recalled is how he says he'll "talk to Dean to see who has been playing well/working hard". If the AHL coach isn't giving a good review of Siemens' play, then there is basically no chance that Roy will recall him.

 

[Joe Sakic]

If he hasn't cracked this team's D core by next season or the one after that I'll likely be labeling him a bust.

 

[Bonzai12]

folks are way too spoiled with Duch, ROR, Lando and Mac going to the NHL right away.

Thats not sustainable or healthy long term.

 

[tigervixxxen]

Yeah let's forget about the fast track or first round pick expectations or any thoughts that he might need a change of scenery. He's a good player and he's still young and inexperienced. Can we just leave it at that? Why does everyone need a label or judgement? It's like a constant running ticker of value placed on each player, if he's not more valuable today than the day he was drafted then he's a bust. He's the type of player we need more of, not less. Just leave him be.

Roy doesn't play young defensemen anyway. He didn't last year and he isn't this year. Redmond barely earned his trust. Everyone wants him called up so bad well he would be most likely sitting around just like Elliott is doing.

 

[niwotsblessing]

Yeah let's forget about the fast track or first round pick expectations or any thoughts that he might need a change of scenery. He's a good player and he's still young and inexperienced. Can we just leave it at that? Why does everyone need a label or judgement? It's like a constant running ticker of value placed on each player, if he's not more valuable today than the day he was drafted then he's a bust. He's the type of player we need more of, not less. Just leave him be.

Roy doesn't play young defensemen anyway. He didn't last year and he isn't this year. Redmond barely earned his trust. Everyone wants him called up so bad well he would be most likely sitting around just like Elliott is doing.

Great post. I am hoping that when we deal Hejda at the deadline Siemens may some NHL time, if he's healthy.

 

[umdieecke*]

....by watching him.

A guy in his mold needs to be shutting down the opposition with his skating and reach, providing physicality and mean at the same time. If he is not consistently playing sound defence and is instead giving up good chances against due to mistakes then he is not ready.

One of Roy's common phrases regarding players recalled or who is going to get recalled is how he says he'll "talk to Dean to see who has been playing well/working hard". If the AHL coach isn't giving a good review of Siemens' play, then there is basically no chance that Roy will recall him.

Ok. But since his performance is very qualitative and not as quantitative, this could be somewhat problematic. Much of what you're describing speaks to playing with passion. If he becomes buried by the mundaneness and rigmarole, his play could reflect that he's detached or lacking passion. Whereas if they brought him to the big club, that could change instantly. And while he might struggle, he could also clean up a lot of issues stemming from being somewhat detached at Lake Erie. I'm not saying that's where it's at now but it could be if he's buried in the muck at Lake Erie too long. It's great for the Avs to say he has to earn his way to the big club, but it also benefits the Avs more if he contributes at the big club and letting him languish at LE too long could easily backfire.

I think a big issue is whether he can back up his physical style at the next level. In other words, is he physically mature enogh to play his style and in turn, have the confidence to play his style. It's a grown mans league. His style of play requires him to be physically ready.

And why is so much faith being put in Dean. Who's to say he doesn't play politics and act out of self interest. There are times when there are incongruities between what's best for Dean and what's best for the Avs. But the bottom line is guys haven't been developing at LE. Is it drafting or is this on the program at LE?

And at the other end of that, what of Roy's reluctance to play younger guys? I don't think this but I've seen this comment. And the bigger issue is whether the players at LE feel this.

Ever hear of the Hawthorne Effect? There was a study at some suburban Chicago factory in the 20s or 30s. They wanted to see what would happen to productivity when they dimmed the lights in the factory. They expected the productivity to go down, but instead, it increased. And they would continue dimming the lights and the productivity continued to go up with each change. There are different interpretations for this but one of the more popular ones (and one I share) is that people perform better when they know others are paying attention. And this is why I think it could be a problem being buried at Lake Erie.

Someone mentioned a change of scenery earlier. I think that's probably more true in Siemens case than most.

 

[AnimalMother73]

quantitative measures for a player like him indicating he's ready:

average time on ice
+/-
turn overs
hits
short handed time
zone starts

basically if he's used as the primary D in all critical defensive situations he's ready...he's not that player yet for LEM

 

[tigervixxxen]

Lake Erie does not operate as a separate entity, it's run by the Avs. The only thing where they might have different interests is they have season ticket holders to satisfy and they have to try to win too. I wish they'd play young players more but it's also not just a practice squad for the Avs. When they are told to play certain players they do it. I'm sure inserting a rusty Reto Berra and playing him 5 games in a row was the last thing Dean wanted to do but he did it.

Siemens us not languishing, he's learning. He's played only 80 AHL games and he needs more. He is not being oppressed or held hostage there. Everyone needs to let the memory of Shattenkirk go where all of a sudden he was fabulous at the NHL level after not playing well in the AHL. That's not going to happen again. A 21 year old in his second pro season does not need a change of scenery. He's not going to be playing for any other NHL club either.

There are hints that he might be back next week. So why don't you all buy AHL live and see for yourself then if you are so sure this is a huge problem.

 

[Orwell1984]

Ok. But since his performance is very qualitative and not as quantitative, this could be somewhat problematic. Much of what you're describing speaks to playing with passion. If he becomes buried by the mundaneness and rigmarole, his play could reflect that he's detached or lacking passion. Whereas if they brought him to the big club, that could change instantly. And while he might struggle, he could also clean up a lot of issues stemming from being somewhat detached at Lake Erie. I'm not saying that's where it's at now but it could be if he's buried in the muck at Lake Erie too long. It's great for the Avs to say he has to earn his way to the big club, but it also benefits the Avs more if he contributes at the big club and letting him languish at LE too long could easily backfire.

I think a big issue is whether he can back up his physical style at the next level. In other words, is he physically mature enogh to play his style and in turn, have the confidence to play his style. It's a grown mans league. His style of play requires him to be physically ready.

And why is so much faith being put in Dean. Who's to say he doesn't play politics and act out of self interest. There are times when there are incongruities between what's best for Dean and what's best for the Avs. But the bottom line is guys haven't been developing at LE. Is it drafting or is this on the program at LE?

And at the other end of that, what of Roy's reluctance to play younger guys? I don't think this but I've seen this comment. And the bigger issue is whether the players at LE feel this.

Ever hear of the Hawthorne Effect? There was a study at some suburban Chicago factory in the 20s or 30s. They wanted to see what would happen to productivity when they dimmed the lights in the factory. They expected the productivity to go down, but instead, it increased. And they would continue dimming the lights and the productivity continued to go up with each change. There are different interpretations for this but one of the more popular ones (and one I share) is that people perform better when they know others are paying attention. And this is why I think it could be a problem being buried at Lake Erie.

Someone mentioned a change of scenery earlier. I think that's probably more true in Siemens case than most.

Very well put sir. I think you hit the nail on the head. I don't know Dunc but the players I know are truly disheartened and quite cynical about the lack of teaching that goes on in "Deans' Dungeon"

 

[Foppa2118]

With how many little complaints we've heard about Chynoweth, and Roy putting such a high priority on development, and keeping guys like Duncan and Hishon an others in the minors so they can develop, and his own personal belief in "teaching" players and not really screaming at them, why the hell have they not replaced him yet?

Bringing in a new experienced voice to run the forwards and PP in Colorado, and then offering the HC job in Erie to Army should be one of their first moves in the offseason IMO. Army's good with the players, they all like him, and he knows Roy systems as well as anyone at this point. He'll be able to implement them down in Erie just like Patrick wants.

He's been a head coach at the AHL level before, and had many years experience as a head coach at the college level with Providence. Not sure if Army will want to take it, but to me it's kinda a no brainer move from the Avs persepctive