TSN: What's holding up Kopitar's new contract? (MOD WARNING) post #205

[Captain Mittens*]

Bottom Line: DOMINANT playoff player, No #1 center playing 20 minutes a night vs. other team's top line in EVERY situation. Kings not even a playoff team w/o him. He's going to get paid and might even get a NMC.

Better start learning to live with it.

And in reference to Cap prediction....shine your Crystal Ball, it's a bit foggy.

But not as foggy as the windows on Face Wash's 1986 Dihatsu Charade

 

[SettlementRichie10]

Lombardi already screwed the Kings long term with the Brown and Gaborik deals. No reason not to throw more gasoline on the fire with Kopitar's deal.

 

[KINGS17]

Bottom Line: DOMINANT playoff player, No #1 center playing 20 minutes a night vs. other team's top line in EVERY situation. Kings not even a playoff team w/o him. He's going to get paid and might even get a NMC.

Better start learning to live with it.

And in reference to Cap prediction....shine your Crystal Ball, it's a bit foggy.

My cap "prediction" is not foggy. It is based on the economic facts that exist today. The Canadian economy and it's dollar are negatively effected by the drop in oil prices. A disproportionate amount of NHL revenue comes from the Candian teams in Canadian dollars which is then converted to U.S. dollars to calculate the salary cap. The cap is not going up by a significant amount anytime soon.

Kopitar was a key member of both cup teams. He was not DOMINANT. He was very, very good. DOMINANT is Michael Jordan in the NBA playoffs.

He may get paid, and he may get an NMC. I don't see anything other than assertive statements on your part as to why that would be a good idea going forward for a player on the wrong side of 30 years of age. I see plenty of reasoning from damacles on why it's a bad idea.

 

[damacles1156]

My cap "prediction" is not foggy. It is based on the economic facts that exist today. The Canadian economy and it's dollar are negatively effected by the drop in oil prices. A disproportionate amount of NHL revenue comes from the Candian teams in Canadian dollars which is then converted to U.S. dollars to calculate the salary cap. The cap is not going up by a significant amount anytime soon.

Kopitar was a key member of both cup teams. He was not DOMINANT. He was very, very good. DOMINANT is Michael Jordan in the NBA playoffs.

He may get paid, and he may get an NMC. I don't see anything other than assertive statements on your part as to why that would be a good idea going forward for a player on the wrong side of 30 years of age. I see plenty of reasoning from damacles on why it's a bad idea.

In this stagnant Cap era; it's not a good idea to hand ANY player at age 29/30+ a high dollar, 6-8 year contract.

I wouldn't even pay Crosby top dollar at his age, it will sink your team.

Chicago is lucky that, Toews and Kane just turned 27 this season, and that Kane is the best player in the league (better than Crosby, my opinion).

You think Calgary is enjoying that Six year/6.75 million deal they just handed Mark Giordano, he has been one of the worst Defenders they have this season(big reason their defense sucks). Calgary has to pay Sean Monahan, coming up real fast.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Which is fine, it's not my money, it's just frustrating watching Lombardi continue to sign these type of contracts. They end up hamstringing the Kings. To Lombardi's credit, he has signed some great deals.

Muzzin's contract is a steal.

But I don't see why this is shocking to anyone. If I have time later, I'm going to go back and dig some quotes from previous contract signing threads and cup winning threads, where the general consensus is "**** it, give him whatever he wants, we won, it's okay to suck in 5 years." Guess what? We're approaching the 4th year, and it's starting to suck.

Vets get paid, end of story. Chicago has gone through a great purge and has gotten creative to stay good through it. Deano is having the same challenge. It could be worse, we could be St. Louis, Minnesota, or any other number of teams who are setting money on fire on lesser, losing players.

Forest, trees etc.

And to be clear, I'm not saying that it's 'ok' that these sort of deals get handed out like candy, I don't think anyone is saying that really, but if you don't pay your core players, someone else will. Whether Kopitar gets paid by us or not, let's be frank, unless we work some Chicago magic and Mersch becomes Lucic, Lucic takes a paycut to stay, guys that need raises are okay with cuts, and some other prospect bursts onto the scene as a cheap top pairing defenseman, this is the start of our team's decline. No shame in it, just need people to stop pretending that we're going to sign Kopitar for 5x3 so we can sign other players and stay competitive.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

My cap "prediction" is not foggy. It is based on the economic facts that exist today. The Canadian economy and it's dollar are negatively effected by the drop in oil prices. A disproportionate amount of NHL revenue comes from the Candian teams in Canadian dollars which is then converted to U.S. dollars to calculate the salary cap. The cap is not going up by a significant amount anytime soon.

Kopitar was a key member of both cup teams. He was not DOMINANT. He was very, very good. DOMINANT is Michael Jordan in the NBA playoffs.

He may get paid, and he may get an NMC. I don't see anything other than assertive statements on your part as to why that would be a good idea going forward for a player on the wrong side of 30 years of age. I see plenty of reasoning from damacles on why it's a bad idea.

He was flat-out dominant in 2012, as dominant as anyone that year. He was absolutely dominant in 2014, beating Malkin's pace from his crazy playoff year, until the Chicago series, and still finished on top of scoring. Let's not rewrite history to diminish what he did. There are no Michael Jordans in the NHL playoffs (that aren't goalies), don't need the red herrings. Teams game planned around Kopitar enough that Chicago put TWO Selke candidates up against his line, never mind facing the murderer's row of matchups and defensemen all playoffs and coming up positive on every matchup (while at least blackholing Toews, Hossa).

 

[damacles1156]

But I don't see why this is shocking to anyone. If I have time later, I'm going to go back and dig some quotes from previous contract signing threads and cup winning threads, where the general consensus is "**** it, give him whatever he wants, we won, it's okay to suck in 5 years." Guess what? We're approaching the 4th year, and it's starting to suck.

Vets get paid, end of story. Chicago has gone through a great purge and has gotten creative to stay good through it. Deano is having the same challenge. It could be worse, we could be St. Louis, Minnesota, or any other number of teams who are setting money on fire on lesser, losing players.

Forest, trees etc.

And to be clear, I'm not saying that it's 'ok' that these sort of deals get handed out like candy, I don't think anyone is saying that really, but if you don't pay your core players, someone else will. Whether Kopitar gets paid by us or not, let's be frank, unless we work some Chicago magic and Mersch becomes Lucic, Lucic takes a paycut to stay, guys that need raises are okay with cuts, and some other prospect bursts onto the scene as a cheap top pairing defenseman, this is the start of our team's decline. No shame in it, just need people to stop pretending that we're going to sign Kopitar for 5x3 so we can sign other players and stay competitive.

It's not shocking to me, it's frustrating and dumb.

I can't wait till the GM's put more restraints on themselves in the next CBA with lower contract lengths.

 

[KINGS17]

He was flat-out dominant in 2012, as dominant as anyone that year. He was absolutely dominant in 2014, beating Malkin's pace from his crazy playoff year, until the Chicago series, and still finished on top of scoring. Let's not rewrite history to diminish what he did. There are no Michael Jordans in the NHL playoffs (that aren't goalies), don't need the red herrings. Teams game planned around Kopitar enough that Chicago put TWO Selke candidates up against his line, never mind facing the murderer's row of matchups and defensemen all playoffs and coming up positive on every matchup (while at least blackholing Toews, Hossa).

I am not re-writing any history. I said Kopitar was very, very good, and he was, but that is not dominant. Did he win the Conn Smythe?

The bottom line is that RIGHT NOW, the way Kopitar is playing, are the Kings cup contenders? I have my doubts. If you understand that the Pacific Division is probably the worst in the NHL, and that being in 1st really means very little at this point in the season, then I think you get a clearer picture of where the Kings are in terms of cup contention this season.

If Kopitar's offensive game doesn't improve dramatically, it is going to be very tough for this team to win it all again this season. If the Kings aren't going to win cups with Kopitar's current level of play, what's the point in paying him $80M for the next 8 years, starting next year?

 

[Omni Owl]

but not as foggy as the windows on face wash's 1986 dihatsu charade

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[Raccoon Jesus]

I am not re-writing any history. I said Kopitar was very, very good, and he was, but that is not dominant. Did he win the Conn Smythe?

The bottom line is that RIGHT NOW, the way Kopitar is playing, are the Kings cup contenders? I have my doubts. If you understand that the Pacific Division is probably the worst in the NHL, and that being in 1st really means very little at this point in the season, then I think you get a clearer picture of where the Kings are in terms of cup contention this season.

If Kopitar's offensive game doesn't improve dramatically, it is going to be very tough for this team to win it all again this season. If the Kings aren't going to win cups with Kopitar's current level of play, what's the point in paying him $80M for the next 8 years, starting next year?

Oh lord. Now you're holding the Conn Smythes against him when he could have won either won? That's like holding the Norris Trophy against Drew.

Pacific sucking or not, Kings are 8th overall in the league. The Pacific being terrible here is overstated because we've been better outside the division than in it, and just because we're leading it, that doesn't mean we're terrible as well. For all the gloom and doom here you would think we're winning the division but out of the playoffs otherwise. Kopitar and Gaborik are starting to warm up which is apparent to anyone watching them, and this team is on the verge of good things; I don't think you can arbitrarily take contender status away from them simply because you don't like the division and because Kopitar isn't scoring enough for you yet (or, actually, he is, but you don't like his shooting percentage).

I don't disagree with your last point, and again, I don't think many are actually disagreeing with it. The point is, and always has been, the alternative finds this team circling the drain immediately instead of a few years from now. Like I said, go back to threads from a few years ago and realize the sentiment set us up for exactly this, so people being surprised at our current situation is silly.

 

[damacles1156]

Oh lord. Now you're holding the Conn Smythes against him when he could have won either won? That's like holding the Norris Trophy against Drew.

Pacific sucking or not, Kings are 8th overall in the league. The Pacific being terrible here is overstated because we've been better outside the division than in it, and just because we're leading it, that doesn't mean we're terrible as well. For all the gloom and doom here you would think we're winning the division but out of the playoffs otherwise. Kopitar and Gaborik are starting to warm up which is apparent to anyone watching them, and this team is on the verge of good things; I don't think you can arbitrarily take contender status away from them simply because you don't like the division and because Kopitar isn't scoring enough for you yet (or, actually, he is, but you don't like his shooting percentage).

I don't disagree with your last point, and again, I don't think many are actually disagreeing with it. The point is, and always has been, the alternative finds this team circling the drain immediately instead of a few years from now. Like I said, go back to threads from a few years ago and realize the sentiment set us up for exactly this, so people being surprised at our current situation is silly.

If you ask me, Dustin Brown was dominant in 2012 playoffs. Quick deserved that Smythe.

But that is the best Hockey Brown ever played in his life, DOMINANT nightly, he changed games nightly, with his scoring/speed/hitting. He played so well, most of us couldn't believe it was Brown.

Also wouldn't say Gabo is heating up, his metrics are still terrible, he is still a bad forward, on a dominant possession team. Gabo is old folks, it's time to accept it.

Kopitar is getting back to normal with all his metrics, good sign.

 

[KINGS17]

Oh lord. Now you're holding the Conn Smythes against him when he could have won either won? That's like holding the Norris Trophy against Drew.

Pacific sucking or not, Kings are 8th overall in the league. The Pacific being terrible here is overstated because we've been better outside the division than in it, and just because we're leading it, that doesn't mean we're terrible as well. For all the gloom and doom here you would think we're winning the division but out of the playoffs otherwise. Kopitar and Gaborik are starting to warm up which is apparent to anyone watching them, and this team is on the verge of good things; I don't think you can arbitrarily take contender status away from them simply because you don't like the division and because Kopitar isn't scoring enough for you yet (or, actually, he is, but you don't like his shooting percentage).

I don't disagree with your last point, and again, I don't think many are actually disagreeing with it. The point is, and always has been, the alternative finds this team circling the drain immediately instead of a few years from now. Like I said, go back to threads from a few years ago and realize the sentiment set us up for exactly this, so people being surprised at our current situation is silly.

Is Kopitar going to shoot 20% all season? Geez, I guess you just don't want to see the larger sample size that is the last 100 or so games. Wow, look out he has scored some goals over the last 4 or 5 games. He is ready to be 2012-Kopitar again.

The alternatives are:

1. Kopitar comes to his senses and signs a reasonable contract.

2. Dean trades him for a player like Galchenyuk, and the Kings start something new and fresh.

Also, while Jeff Carter is not a prototypical 1C, one could easily argue that over the last 100 games, he has been a better and more rounded player than Kopitar. I appreciate that you don't disagree with the last point I made in the previous post, but you seem to be counting on Kopitar and Gaborik catching lightning in a bottle.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Is Kopitar going to shoot 20% all season? Geez, I guess you just don't want to see the larger sample size that is the last 100 or so games. Wow, look out he has scored some goals over the last 4 or 5 games. He is ready to be 2012-Kopitar again.

The alternatives are:

1. Kopitar comes to his senses and signs a reasonable contract.

2. Dean trades him for a player like Galchenyuk, and the Kings start something new and fresh.

Also, while Jeff Carter is not a prototypical 1C, one could easily argue that over the last 100 games, he has been a better and more rounded player than Kopitar. I appreciate that you don't disagree with the last point I made in the previous post, but you seem to be counting on Kopitar and Gaborik catching lightning in a bottle.

So you're admitting 2012 Kopitar was dominant

Of course not, but I'm talking about things beyond shooting and scoring, too, like going hard to the net and carrying possession for the entire line. But then again, I'm talking to the guy who figured a 5 goal 80 assist season would be a failure because goals.

LOL at number 2, like Montreal would do that. You keep throwing out these unrealistic trade scenarios and hoping for the best. I'm just pointing out reality. The Kings starting something "new and fresh" means a LOT more moves than simply Kopitar, and may as well dismantle at that point because we're not running around with a bunch of blue chip prospects. Go look at the haul for UFA Kovalchuk and see what we can get for Kopitar.

I don't disagree in general on Jeff Carter, but if he's our #1, he's then seeing Toews/Hossa instead of Kopitar, and you're counting on GALCHENYUK--who even friggin Montreal doesn't trust at center--to be your #2. I'm sorry, but Kopitar moves, just start dismantling the team now. I'm not counting on them catching 'lightning in a bottle', but you're conveniently forgetting Kopitar's slow start followed by PPG last year, in a year when he was clearly off--I'm simply believing what I see, and that's improved play. Unfortunately, we can't 'fix' those around him, they have to play well too...

Edit: and none of this addresses the contract. The point is, he's not going to get a 5x5 or anything like that if we're all honest with ourselves. He is going to be overpaid for his years of service. I'm fine with that at this point because we're going to be terrible and hampered by the cap in a year or two anyway, so may as well contend hard for the year or two we still can. That's all I'm saying. If we want to tear it all apart, fine, but DL has given absolutely ZERO signal of doing that (though we've been getting younger slowly/subtly, look at our D).

 

[Ron*]

But I don't see why this is shocking to anyone. If I have time later, I'm going to go back and dig some quotes from previous contract signing threads and cup winning threads, where the general consensus is "**** it, give him whatever he wants, we won, it's okay to suck in 5 years." Guess what? We're approaching the 4th year, and it's starting to suck.

Vets get paid, end of story. Chicago has gone through a great purge and has gotten creative to stay good through it. Deano is having the same challenge. It could be worse, we could be St. Louis, Minnesota, or any other number of teams who are setting money on fire on lesser, losing players.

Forest, trees etc.

And to be clear, I'm not saying that it's 'ok' that these sort of deals get handed out like candy, I don't think anyone is saying that really, but if you don't pay your core players, someone else will. Whether Kopitar gets paid by us or not, let's be frank, unless we work some Chicago magic and Mersch becomes Lucic, Lucic takes a paycut to stay, guys that need raises are okay with cuts, and some other prospect bursts onto the scene as a cheap top pairing defenseman, this is the start of our team's decline. No shame in it, just need people to stop pretending that we're going to sign Kopitar for 5x3 so we can sign other players and stay competitive.

I don't think 1st place in the Pacific and 8th place overall and clearly STILL contending for the Cup is "starting to suck."

 

[Ron*]

It's not shocking to me, it's frustrating and dumb.

I can't wait till the GM's put more restraints on themselves in the next CBA with lower contract lengths.

Go root for ANA if you want that kind of "GM restraint." They have an internal cap. Now, that is one team that is really going to suck bad in a couple of seasons.

 

[KINGS17]

So you're admitting 2012 Kopitar was dominant

Of course not, but I'm talking about things beyond shooting and scoring, too, like going hard to the net and carrying possession for the entire line. But then again, I'm talking to the guy who figured a 5 goal 80 assist season would be a failure because goals.

LOL at number 2, like Montreal would do that. You keep throwing out these unrealistic trade scenarios and hoping for the best. I'm just pointing out reality. The Kings starting something "new and fresh" means a LOT more moves than simply Kopitar, and may as well dismantle at that point because we're not running around with a bunch of blue chip prospects. Go look at the haul for UFA Kovalchuk and see what we can get for Kopitar.

I don't disagree in general on Jeff Carter, but if he's our #1, he's then seeing Toews/Hossa instead of Kopitar, and you're counting on GALCHENYUK--who even friggin Montreal doesn't trust at center--to be your #2. I'm sorry, but Kopitar moves, just start dismantling the team now. I'm not counting on them catching 'lightning in a bottle', but you're conveniently forgetting Kopitar's slow start followed by PPG last year, in a year when he was clearly off--I'm simply believing what I see, and that's improved play. Unfortunately, we can't 'fix' those around him, they have to play well too...

Edit: and none of this addresses the contract. The point is, he's not going to get a 5x5 or anything like that if we're all honest with ourselves. He is going to be overpaid for his years of service. I'm fine with that at this point because we're going to be terrible and hampered by the cap in a year or two anyway, so may as well contend hard for the year or two we still can. That's all I'm saying. If we want to tear it all apart, fine, but DL has given absolutely ZERO signal of doing that (though we've been getting younger slowly/subtly, look at our D).

You're conveniently forgetting that PPG over a small sample size doesn't mean much. He hasn't been consistently good in the offensive zone for around 100+ games.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

You're conveniently forgetting that PPG over a small sample size doesn't mean much. He hasn't been consistently good in the offensive zone for around 100+ games.

It was like 60 games. After November last year IIRC. You're right but the only point was that you're talking about him like he's dead.

 

[damacles1156]

Go root for ANA if you want that kind of "GM restraint." They have an internal cap. Now, that is one team that is really going to suck bad in a couple of seasons.

The Ducks internal cap hasn't prevented them from doing anything, other than signing ludicrous contracts.

The Ducks problems are development, they haven't developed a Goalie in forever, also Cam Fowler is still their best defender(that's not a good thing). The Ducks resigned their two biggest UFA in Getz/Perry to reasonable contracts, even with money restraints.

If I was the Ducks GM, I would trade Getz/Perry after this season. Both will be 31, and they still are productive players. That would free up a ton of cap space going forward. You would get big pieces coming back (draft Picks/young players) Start your core over, Get ahead of the curve. Some of trades might be help in the Goalie/Defender department, things the Ducks lack tremendously.

The Ducks are not a cup contender with Perry/Getz entering their 30's(They are also not going to get there, with 16 million tied up in those two). The NHL is this day and age, is a young mans game.

 

[KINGS17]

It was like 60 games. After November last year IIRC. You're right but the only point was that you're talking about him like he's dead.

He's not dead, just not worth $72M+ over 8 years. He isn't the player he once was, and I don't think playing the way that Kopitar has been playing that he is the 1C of a Stanley Cup team right now.

If the Kings are going to compete for cups over the next few seasons, Kopitar has to sign at an AAV that will allow Dean to get him some help. He may have to move Brown and retain some salary in that trade. How will he do that if a few million in cap space is tied up in Kopitar's contract that shouldn't be tied up there?

What does the trend in Kopitar's play tell you Brad? Has Kopitar been "the guy" for the last 100 games? He had 16 goals last season. His shots were way down. His shots are only slightly better this season, but he is shooting 20%. Think that will last?

 

[KINGS17]

Go root for ANA if you want that kind of "GM restraint." They have an internal cap. Now, that is one team that is really going to suck bad in a couple of seasons.

Not sure what this has to do with damacles point regarding limiting the term on all contracts.

 

[damacles1156]

Not sure what this has to do with damacles point regarding limiting the term on all contracts.

See my post above #68 what do you think ?

Eight years is too long, when the majority of your players hit UFA at ages 27-29. That was the GM's (own)argument in the last CBA. They compromised, and they are paying for it.

 

[KINGS17]

The Ducks internal cap hasn't prevented them from doing anything, other than signing ludicrous contracts.

The Ducks problems are development, they haven't developed a Goalie in forever, also Cam Fowler is still their best defender(that's not a good thing). The Ducks resigned their two biggest UFA in Getz/Perry to reasonable contracts, even with money restraints.

If I was the Ducks GM, I would trade Getz/Perry after this season. Both will be 31, and they still are productive players. That would free up a ton of cap space going forward. You would get big pieces coming back (draft Picks/young players) Start your core over, Get ahead of the curve. Some of trades might be help in the Goalie/Defender department, things the Ducks lack tremendously.

The Ducks are not a cup contender with Perry/Getz entering their 30's(They are also not going to get there, with 16 million tied up in those two). The NHL is this day and age, is a young mans game.

I don't think that it's that radical an idea. The Ducks don't have the right mix and Getzlaf and Perry are only getting older.

Montreal, Nashville, maybe the NYI are all teams that would have interest in one of those two players.

 

[damacles1156]

Slighty off topic,

But aren't the New England Patriots notorious for getting rid of 29+ year old players, due raises ? With obvious exceptions (Brady). I know NFL teams can't wait to rid themselves of Running Backs that hit 28/29 years old.

 

[Trolfoli]

The issue here is replacing Kopitar. I don't see any centers out there obtainable at a reasonable price that come close to matching Kopitar.

Moving Kopitar by the deadline, in a year Lombardi doesn't have a 1st round pick and the Kings are near/at the top of the division is going to be hard to justify. That's the kind of move that goes bad and costs people their jobs.

 

[johnjm22]

Is Kopitar going to shoot 20% all season? Geez, I guess you just don't want to see the larger sample size that is the last 100 or so games.

Those shooting stats aren't telling the whole story. Kopitar is shooting a lot right now. It's just that an abnormally large portion of his shots are missing the net so they're not factored into the shooting % stat.