Value of: What's fair, and who gets the most? (Laine, Rantanen, Marner)

[wc17]

Yeah UFA years are very valuable to NHL players so the more years you're buying up the dollar amount rises for these precious years.

And with a 6 year deal (at ALOT of money), they become UFA at 28 instead of 30 and can cash out again.

Its win/win I think for both player and team...I think of it when it comes to my Leafs and I do think Marner and Matthews will likely sign 5-6 year deals at a little less to help out with cap concerns when they're looking at making real runs right now and in the next 3-4 years with Tavares.

And to all the Leaf haters...I'm not saying "a little less" as in a discount...I'm saying a little less cause theyll be giving up less UFA years.

 

[HockeyDBspecialist]

Laine is worth a lot more in my book, he is a pure Goal scorer in the same tier as Ovechkin at his age.

Goal scorer > play maker

 

[FelixPotvin29]

I’d take that easily for the Leafs heck 10 years not 5-6

Well the incentive for Marner is not giving away to many UFA years

 

[The3rd]

All 3 will fall into the 8.5 range IMO

 

[Sergei Shirokov]

Can't see any of them getting a number lower than 10. I bet the Leafs are hoping though.

 

[Lempo]

>Laine possible at 7.5per for a 2-3 yr bridge contract.
>Rantanen gets 8 million minimum per for a short-ish 5-6yr contract.
>Marner? That one's gonna hurt. I definitely see something like 9.75 per for 8years, 78mil total happen and that's with Toronto putting in a lot of bonuses in there to protect it from the upcoming lockout which will be a big sweetener.

No one is taking a 3-year bridge that ends in 2022 if/when there's the possible lockout season looming in 2022-23. NHL and NHLPA have until September 2019 to opt out from the CBA (for it to end in 2020), the guys really need to be signed before that.

 

[Wingsfan 4 life]

I reallly don't see ony of the three taking a bridge deal. 5 year deals are the least, IMO.

What interests me is if the Mackininnon and Scheifele cap hits(and cap %) come into play. And who eventually signs first.

 

[WTFMAN99]

Keep in mind that Nylander wanted a long term deal because of the next CBA and the uncertainty that comes with it. Will large signing bonuses be allowed?

If you're Matthews and offered 8 years 10.5M and 80-90% of the contract is signing bonuses, that is guaranteed money.

 

[Brockon]

Leafs cant worry about the cap too much. Time is critical. Marner is a LOT more attractive as an rfa than Nylander was.

Offer sheers WILL be a very real looming threat this july 1st for some unsigned players much moreso than any year prior.

Imo he might only be #4 on the list though behind matthews ranta and barzal of most sought rfas but itll be close. I might also be forgetting some more - lots of rfas this year.

Barzal is a 2020 RFA eligible to sign an extension on July 1st 2019. He can't be offer sheeted this summer. But, you'd better believe his agent is drooling at the thought of what kind of precedents are about to be set for his comparables when he starts to negotiate on Barzal's next contract.

I can't see Marner getting under 10x8. Kucherov was brought up earlier as a UFA comparable, but I personally think that you're about to see a Kane contract for 10.5 over 8 for Marner, with Kapanen on his way out the door if the leafs insist on keeping Nylander due to cap implications. Kane is a very similar player to Marner stylistically and role wise for his team (PPQB, play making wizard).

Kane's totals were in his first 3 seasons.
21-51-72 in 82 GP
25-45-70 in 80 GP
30-58-88 in 82 GP

Marner by comparison went
19-42-61 in 77 GP
22-47-69 in 82 GP
13-40-53 in 39 GP so far. With 43 games to go. A PPG pace lands him just shy of 100 points, does anyone bet against him getting there?

Those first 2 seasons look eerily similar. The league has changed, so there's no way Marner is bridged like Kane was, but I can see that 10.5x8 being great value if Marner is a career PPG player moving forward. This is why I think he gets over 11x8, unless he leaves money on the table to leave Dubas a little wiggle room to build a team to compete.

Rantanen should be firing his agent if he gets less than 10x8 as well. Though his growth looks more Draisaitl-esque over seasons 1&2, he's continued to grow, but he's also being fed by an incredibly talented center. He should make a hair less than Marner who showed tremendous growth in his 2nd season with Kadri as his predominant center after spending time in the bottom 6... Given a better center, guess who blew up too?

Laine needs to pick up his scoring rates to make a similar AAV to either of Rantanen or Marner.

 

[Brockon]

all will take team discounts.

Marner 7
Rant - 6.5
Laine 7.5

That's highly doubtful. I can't see any of them getting an AAV beginning with a 7, taking a team discount. Even if everyone buys into the take less so there's more left to build a team around you philosophy - an AAV beginning in an 8 is wishful thinking.

That you think the highest paid guy takes under 8 isn't realistic, look at recent contracts... This isn't the 2014-15 salary era, contracts continue to bloat year over year and the Draisaitl, McDavid & Eichel contracts ruined any chance of those numbers you're projecting coming through.

Get ready for the next lockout in 2020-21, where something will be done about the inflation rates of contracts, but be prepared to see contracts continue to bloat for the elite players.

 

[Brockon]

Laine is worth a lot more in my book, he is a pure Goal scorer in the same tier as Ovechkin at his age.

Goal scorer > play maker

Ovechkin put up more rounded and more impressive numbers compared to the league in his first 3 seasons before signing his deal. Ovi was

52-54-106 in 81 GP in 2005-06,
3rd in points, T-3rd in goals

46-46-92 in 82 GP in 2006-07
13th in points, 4th in goals

65-47-112 in 82 GP 2007-08
1st in points & goals.

Laine by comparison is
36-28-64 in 73 GP in 2016-17
7th in goals, outside top 20 in points

44-26-70 in 82 GP in 2017-18
2nd in goals, outside top 20 in points

24-7-31 in 38 GP in 2018-19
T-4th in goals, outside top 20 in points

Laine doesn't compare to Ovi at the same age, relative to his peers at the time. Goal scoring may involve a premium, but being outside the top 20 scorers compared to what appear to be top 5 locks this season is going to lower the price of the contract.

I'd be surprised if Laine doesn't sign the cheapest deal of these 3 RFAs, as he plays a lesser role on his team and provides less impact. That said, I'll be shocked if he gets less than Draisaitl's 8.5 AAV. I'd think in the 9-10 range.

 

[MNRube]

Laine might not deserve it, but he will not make less than these guys. That shot is going to sell a lot of tickets and jerseys. A rare type player whose value cant be measured just by traditional scoring.

 

[Zhamnov5GoalGame]

I'd assume that most teams would be hesitant to sign 5 or 6 year deals.
That's only 1 or 2 years of UFA.
Team control is a big deal.
Lockout protection will be key as well.

I assume that 2 year bridges or 7 - 8 year contracts are what we'll see.

Something that could delay all of these signings is everyone waiting for someone else to go first.
Kyle Connor is another big consideration for the Jets.
It's impossible to know where Laine will end this season.
A well timed NOVA streak or a cold spell could be a big swing in the numbers for his deal.

In a perfect world Laine signs before he really breaks out.
Of course that is a risk as well if the over pay now assuming certain levels of improvement.

 

[ANDI P IS CUTE]

the salary structure has changed from paying big cash to players who have proven it, to now paying players based on potential.

 

[Dan Kelly]

Laine is worth a lot more in my book, he is a pure Goal scorer in the same tier as Ovechkin at his age.

Goal scorer > play maker

yup, i'd always try to sign the goal scorer as they are in relatively short supply in the NHL.

 

[The Kingslayer]

10.5 million Marner
9.5 million Rantanen
9 million Laine

If MArner gets a mill more than Rantanen then Mikko needs to fire his agent.

 

[FanTheFlames]

I can see
Rantanen 10.5 x 8
Laine 10 x 8
Marner 9.5-9.75 x 8

-Rantanen will get the most because he is one of two big names on colorado.
-Laine will get second most because he is the next Ovi and carries huge value.
-Marner should get Rantanen money, but won't because toronto wont pay quite as much due the the fact they have 3 other hugely payed forwards and will need to save whatever they can.

 

[Scott Stevens]

I can see
Rantanen 10.5 x 8
Laine 10 x 8
Marner 9.5-9.75 x 8

-Rantanen will get the most because he is one of two big names on colorado.
-Laine will get second most because he is the next Ovi and carries huge value.
-Marner should get Rantanen money, but won't because toronto wont pay quite as much due the the fact they have 3 other hugely payed forwards and will need to save whatever they can.

Why will Marner capitulate?

Nylander didn’t.

He counts $6.96m now where really, what should a playoff ghost make?

Marner is a beauty and he’s gonna get his.

 

[ER89]

I don't want to talk about this subject.

First thing leafs, avs and jets fans can agree on.

Edit: only thing....

 

[phillyjabroni]

Can't really understand the logic of valuing Mikko Rantanen at a 12 - 12.56 CH%. This year has been sported by a very high PDO (103.39) and poor expected results don't exactly pair well with "sustainability". Numbers will either fall over time or Rantanen will continue to have inflated numbers relative to his underlying metrics.

 

[phillyjabroni]

For what it's worth, here is what I would peg their contracts at:

Patrick Laine - $10,292,000 x 8 years
Mitch Marner - $7,636,000 x 6 years
Mikko Rantanen - $7,470,000 x 6 years

 

[Balthazar]

For what it's worth, here is what I would peg their contracts at:

Patrick Laine - $10,292,000 x 8 years
Mitch Marner - $7,636,000 x 6 years
Mikko Rantanen - $7,470,000 x 6 years

Crazy that the worst player gets the most money but I'm ok with that as an AVS fan.

 

[sheed36]

For what it's worth, here is what I would peg their contracts at:

Patrick Laine - $10,292,000 x 8 years
Mitch Marner - $7,636,000 x 6 years
Mikko Rantanen - $7,470,000 x 6 years

If the agents for Rantanen and Marner presented these numbers to Sakic and Dubas they would want these contracts signed ASAP before both agents sobered up. Laine would be smiling like a butchers dog though.

 

[phillyjabroni]

If the agents for Rantanen and Marner presented these numbers to Sakic and Dubas they would want these contracts signed ASAP before both agents sobered up. Laine would be smiling like a butchers dog though.

I don't think that Marner is better than Gaudreau and Marner's figure identical in cap hit percentage to him.

Rantanen is overrated. I pegged him between Gaudreau and Pastrnak for cap hit percentage.

 

[seanlinden]

For all the talk of $10m+ for any of these players... ask yourself this...

If Nikita Kucherov, giving up 7 UFA years, having a 39 goal, 100 point season signed for $9.5m over the exact same period of time... while also having proven himself the year prior with 40 goals & 85 points in 74 games, why are any of these guys getting substantially more?

The ONLY guy you can make a case for is Rantanen, given that he had 29 goals and 84 points last year, but he still doesn't score like Kucherov does.

I can't see Marner getting under 10x8. Kucherov was brought up earlier as a UFA comparable, but I personally think that you're about to see a Kane contract for 10.5 over 8 for Marner, with Kapanen on his way out the door if the leafs insist on keeping Nylander due to cap implications. Kane is a very similar player to Marner stylistically and role wise for his team (PPQB, play making wizard).

Kane was paid based on what he HAD done (in winning multiple cups), and look at where Chicago is now, partially because of those deals.

The negotiation for Marner should be very simple -- do you believe you're a better / more valuable player than Nikita Kucherov right now? He's not... and unlikely to be at any point in the next 3-4 years. So pay him somewhere between $9m and $9.5m, accounting for the fact that if the Leafs want to have any hope of winning, that road goes directly through Tampa Bay.



All that being said, philosophically, we've seen the paradigm shift with players wanting to get their big bucks guaranteed on their 2nd deals, taking them to a point where they'll be 29-30 on their next negotiation. The league is continiously getting younger, at 29-30, you're often looking at players potentially past their prime.

You can certainly make the case that if you remove all uncertainty about future CBAs, these guys would be better off to sign 5 year deals that take them to 26-27 and then go the way of John Tavares this summer.... but if the alternative is an 8 year deal at $9.5m ($76m) or 5 year deal at $7.2m ($36m -- assume you value those 3 final UFA years at $13m), then that's a ton of guaranteed money to leave on the table; especially if you believe the PA will be successful at reducing escrow.