Value of: What's fair, and who gets the most? (Laine, Rantanen, Marner)

[RockyMtnRedhawk]

This thread will be gold. Leafs fans trying to explain how Marner is better than Rantanen but will get paid less to help their cap.

 

[seanlinden]

This thread will be gold. Leafs fans trying to explain how Marner is better than Rantanen but will get paid less to help their cap.

I'm a Leaf fan.

Goals this year: Rantanen 17, Marner 13
Assists this year: Rantanen 45, Marner 40
Even strength points this year: Rantanen 41, Marner 38

Goals last year: Rantanen 29, Marner 22
Assists last year: Rantanen 55, Marner 47
Even strength points last year: Rantanen 49, Marner 42

Sure, you can argue that if Marner had Tavares as a linemate last year like Rantanen had MacKinnon, he'd have had better production, but even this year, Rantanen has shown that he's better.

 

[Mickey Marner]

For all the talk of $10m+ for any of these players... ask yourself this...

If Nikita Kucherov, giving up 7 UFA years, having a 39 goal, 100 point season signed for $9.5m over the exact same period of time... while also having proven himself the year prior with 40 goals & 85 points in 74 games, why are any of these guys getting substantially more?

The ONLY guy you can make a case for is Rantanen, given that he had 29 goals and 84 points last year, but he still doesn't score like Kucherov does.



Kane was paid based on what he HAD done (in winning multiple cups), and look at where Chicago is now, partially because of those deals.

The negotiation for Marner should be very simple -- do you believe you're a better / more valuable player than Nikita Kucherov right now? He's not... and unlikely to be at any point in the next 3-4 years. So pay him somewhere between $9m and $9.5m, accounting for the fact that if the Leafs want to have any hope of winning, that road goes directly through Tampa Bay.



All that being said, philosophically, we've seen the paradigm shift with players wanting to get their big bucks guaranteed on their 2nd deals, taking them to a point where they'll be 29-30 on their next negotiation. The league is continiously getting younger, at 29-30, you're often looking at players potentially past their prime.

You can certainly make the case that if you remove all uncertainty about future CBAs, these guys would be better off to sign 5 year deals that take them to 26-27 and then go the way of John Tavares this summer.... but if the alternative is an 8 year deal at $9.5m ($76m) or 5 year deal at $7.2m ($36m -- assume you value those 3 final UFA years at $13m), then that's a ton of guaranteed money to leave on the table; especially if you believe the PA will be successful at reducing escrow.

People on here don't understand NHL market economics. I've had to explain to people on multiple occasions that imaginary contracts will not be referenced during a contract negotiation. They see the two worst teams in the league pay Draisaitl and Eichel well above their RFA bracket and assume that's the new norm. It's just like after the Hall-Larsson swap when every team's middling defensemen was worth a star forward.

 

[mashedpotato]

This thread will be gold. Leafs fans trying to explain how Marner is better than Rantanen but will get paid less to help their cap.

As long as Marner is paid less, that's all we care about - we don't need to explain why he's better....

 

[kdog82]

Rantanen 11 x 8
Marner 10.75 x 8
Laine 11 x 8

 

[Lenerdosy]

This is because of a concept in Finance/Economics called the time value of money. Because of interest/investments money today is worth more than money in the future.

Of course. Why not get as much ASAP and be able to invest it at 10%+ as opposed to waiting to get money year after year. If I could with my job sign a 5 year working contract and get most upfront I would in a heartbeat to invest it and make more money than waiting the week to week.

Honestly I think all 3 might be looking at about 10 mill per. I know Rantanen has come out guns a blazing this year but if someone might drop off cost wise I think it might be him. You pay for guys to put the puck in the net and Laine does that and Marner is so freaking dynamic.

 

[Liferleafer]

This thread will be gold. Leafs fans trying to explain how Marner is better than Rantanen but will get paid less to help their cap.

We don't care if Rantanen is better....we care that Marner makes less. Rantanen is out producing Marner....why would we argue?

 

[joe dirte]

I don't want to talk about this subject.

Arizona fan?

 

[mondo3]

Would Brett Hull be a good comparable for Laine in terms of type/quality of player? If so, perhaps his percentage of the cap would be a good measure

 

[joe dirte]

How is Marner not matching Tavares' deal?

RFA.

 

[CobraAcesS]

Arizona fan?

No, but I see you lol

 

[Brockon]

People on here don't understand NHL market economics. I've had to explain to people on multiple occasions that imaginary contracts will not be referenced during a contract negotiation. They see the two worst teams in the league pay Draisaitl and Eichel well above their RFA bracket and assume that's the new norm. It's just like after the Hall-Larsson swap when every team's middling defensemen was worth a star forward.

Well... This post aged well.

I came back to see how bad my predictions were, on page 4 - to see most of them were responding to people assuming Marner would get an AAV with 7 or 8 as the first digit.

I'd assumed max term would also be in play to get 10x8.

But for you to state that others don't understand the market, that Eichel and Draisaitl were outliers and others can't grasp that... That's gold after Marner just signed for a ridiculous 10.89x6.

My god watching Dubas attempt to navigate under the cap next summer and not decimate his defence is going to be fascinating! I can't wait to see what he does with 40.5M tied up in Matthews, Marner, Tavares and Nylander over 4 more seasons with 1 Dman signed beyond 2019-20.

 

[Mickey Marner]

Well... This post aged well.

I came back to see how bad my predictions were, on page 4 - to see most of them were responding to people assuming Marner would get an AAV with 7 or 8 as the first digit.

I'd assumed max term would also be in play to get 10x8.

But for you to state that others don't understand the market, that Eichel and Draisaitl were outliers and others can't grasp that... That's gold after Marner just signed for a ridiculous 10.89x6.

My god watching Dubas attempt to navigate under the cap next summer and not decimate his defence is going to be fascinating! I can't wait to see what he does with 40.5M tied up in Matthews, Marner, Tavares and Nylander over 4 more seasons with 1 Dman signed beyond 2019-20.

Flattered, of course, that posts I made 9 months ago may bring meaning to your life.

 

[NoName]

Well... This post aged well.

My god watching Dubas attempt to navigate under the cap next summer and not decimate his defence is going to be fascinating! I can't wait to see what he does with 40.5M tied up in Matthews, Marner, Tavares and Nylander over 4 more seasons with 1 Dman signed beyond 2019-20.

I mean, the answer seems obvious. You let Ceci walk once his awful $4.5 million contract expires and you use that extra money to resign Barrie. Muzzin is the only blue-liner of any value they lose next season, but his loss can be mostly offset by having Dermott slot into 2nd pairing LHD and have Sandin and/ or Liljegren come up on the third pairing.

Problem navigated. Actually without much difficulty. Not going to say I like the Matthews or Marner AAV, but when your two best superstars in their early 20s are your teams only “bad” contracts heading into 2020 you aren’t doing to badly.

 

[Leaf Fans]

This thread will be gold. Leafs fans trying to explain how Marner is better than Rantanen but will get paid less to help their cap.

No it won't. It will be other fans saying how the Leafs overpaid and how the other players sign for less. We have our players signed, and don't care what other players negotiate for. It is irrelevant.

 

[SotasicA]

My god watching Dubas attempt to navigate under the cap next summer and not decimate his defence is going to be fascinating! I can't wait to see what he does with 40.5M tied up in Matthews, Marner, Tavares and Nylander over 4 more seasons with 1 Dman signed beyond 2019-20.

OMG armageddon

Toronto 2020

 

[v4karuna]

Rantanen - 12 x 6
Laine - 6 x 3
Point - 12.49 x 6

I think that's fair value.

 

[inthe6ix]

I mean, the answer seems obvious. You let Ceci walk once his awful $4.5 million contract expires and you use that extra money to resign Barrie. Muzzin is the only blue-liner of any value they lose next season, but his loss can be mostly offset by having Dermott slot into 2nd pairing LHD and have Sandin and/ or Liljegren come up on the third pairing.

Problem navigated. Actually without much difficulty. Not going to say I like the Matthews or Marner AAV, but when your two best superstars in their early 20s are your teams only “bad” contracts heading into 2020 you aren’t doing to badly.

All people criticizing our FWD signings and complaining about our D next season just fail to grasp the above statements every time.

Once presented, crickets......

 

[sparxx87]

This thread will be gold. Leafs fans trying to explain how Marner is better than Rantanen but will get paid less to help their cap.

Weird. I live in Toronto and the consensus among those I’ve spoken to is exactly the opposite.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

I mean, the answer seems obvious. You let Ceci walk once his awful $4.5 million contract expires and you use that extra money to resign Barrie. Muzzin is the only blue-liner of any value they lose next season, but his loss can be mostly offset by having Dermott slot into 2nd pairing LHD and have Sandin and/ or Liljegren come up on the third pairing.

Problem navigated. Actually without much difficulty. Not going to say I like the Matthews or Marner AAV, but when your two best superstars in their early 20s are your teams only “bad” contracts heading into 2020 you aren’t doing to badly.

You're not signing Barrie for 7M

 

[sparxx87]

You're not signing Barrie for 7M

That’ll be a blessing in disguise. Barrie isn’t worth 7.

 

[yeaher]

That’ll be a blessing in disguise. Barrie isn’t worth 7.

I'd say he is, but given that he is a defensive liability, he isn't much more than that. I think he will get more though. If he was defensively as good as Pietrangelo, he'd be looking at McDavid money considering what he brings to the table offensively, conversely if he wasn't as good offensively one could argue he would be in the AHL.

 

[Foxtail]

I'm a Leaf fan.

Goals this year: Rantanen 17, Marner 13
Assists this year: Rantanen 45, Marner 40
Even strength points this year: Rantanen 41, Marner 38

Goals last year: Rantanen 29, Marner 22
Assists last year: Rantanen 55, Marner 47
Even strength points last year: Rantanen 49, Marner 42

Sure, you can argue that if Marner had Tavares as a linemate last year like Rantanen had MacKinnon, he'd have had better production, but even this year, Rantanen has shown that he's better.

Rantanen is better by all accounts and by all the media in hockey but he only played with MacKinnon half of the year last year or his numbers would have been a lot higher.

Having said that $9.125 in Colorado is equal to 10.8 in Toronto and Sakic will ot overpay so I'd expect something around 6×9

 

[robertocarlos]

Not Laine.

 

[NoName]

You're not signing Barrie for 7M

That would be what the Leafs could offer, assuming the cap doesn’t go up one iota. If it goes up even a modest amount, say $1million (which is likely) then we are talking $8 million.

Again, not arguing things won’t be tight; Toronto is having to let Muzzin walk in this scenario, but the whole idea that Toronto’s blueline is utterly screwed at the end of the year just doesn’t hold water.