Prediction Contest: What will Kyle Dubas' first "Moneyball" type move and who is untouchable?

[Buds17]

I'm going to say it again, because it bears repeating; if the Leafs wanted to increase their ability to play physical, they should probably have a look at guys like Korhskov, Marchment and Engvall. But they were all sent down; why exactly? It's not Dubas who decides who is in the main lineup, unless you think Mike is being overridden from above...

I expect Babcock would have final say on the lineup. I also expect Dubas would have final say on who is on the team, and thus potentially available to be in that lineup. I imagine they also collaborate with each other on both matters to an extent, which I'd say is well and fine for any coach and GM to do.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

At some point next summer 1 or 2 of Kappy, AJ and Willy may have to be moved to upgrade the defense. We will see how they do this year and then decisions will be made. But I think this year we will see this group get 1 more chance in playoffs. If they drop out to Boston again then changes will be made. Likely Babs too. Paying him off is like dropping a dime for the Leafs.

 

[Gabriel426]

At some point next summer 1 or 2 of Kappy, AJ and Willy may have to be moved to upgrade the defense. We will see how they do this year and then decisions will be made. But I think this year we will see this group get 1 more chance in playoffs. If they drop out to Boston again then changes will be made. Likely Babs too. Paying him off is like dropping a dime for the Leafs.

think Marner will ask for a trade if he continues to slide.

 

[Nineteen67]

Rielly and Tavares are untouchable. That's about it.

Well, Rielly has touched anyone in his own end this year.

 

[Nineteen67]

At some point next summer 1 or 2 of Kappy, AJ and Willy may have to be moved to upgrade the defense. We will see how they do this year and then decisions will be made. But I think this year we will see this group get 1 more chance in playoffs. If they drop out to Boston again then changes will be made. Likely Babs too. Paying him off is like dropping a dime for the Leafs.

Nylander is useless the way he’s played since he signed the contract.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

think Marner will ask for a trade if he continues to slide.

Mitch like JT always wanted to be Leafs as kids. They are going nowhere. Willy and Matty that is another question. I like the way Willy plays but next season who knows. and Matty is on another level in terms of skill. I think it Depends on playoffs and development of Lily and Sandin and Dermott. We need 2 of those guys to be in our top 4. Put with Rielly and Muzzy. But if only 1 gets there then we need another top 4 and that means someone has to go in a trade. Willy makes most sense because of CAP and we have Bracco with Marlies. Lots of variables here but we are trading cAP dollars for next 5 years.

 

[Gabriel426]

Mitch like JT always wanted to be Leafs as kids. They are going nowhere. Willy and Matty that is another question. I like the way Willy plays but next season who knows. and Matty is on another level in terms of skill. I think it Depends on playoffs and development of Lily and Sandin and Dermott. We need 2 of those guys to be in our top 4. Put with Rielly and Muzzy. But if only 1 gets there then we need another top 4 and that means someone has to go in a trade. Willy makes most sense because of CAP and we have Bracco with Marlies. Lots of variables here but we are trading cAP dollars for next 5 years.

To me AJ is as good as gone as I don’t think he a dime of a dozen player.
If I have to choose between trading Mitch and Willie, I will choose Mitch bc he will bring in a much better player than Willie can. Also Mitch is a better player than Willie but he is not 3.93mil better than Willie.
To me it works out keeping Mitch and a ELC or minimum deal vet/player or Willie and a player at 4.6mil cap hit.

 

[mapleleaf979]

Willy makes most sense because of CAP and we have Bracco with Marlies.

Bracco isnt ready. I doubt he ever will be. His skating is suspect, he lacks any speed to give him space at the NHL level. His compete level is poor. He has no puck hunger, he floats and waits for line-mates to work for him and give him the puck. Aside from PP2 at the NHL level, a slowed down setting and more space, Bracco can use his vision and make plays. Bracco is a long shot to make the NHL, unless speed and compete drastically change.

 

[hullsy47]

think Marner will ask for a trade if he continues to slide.

He can ask all he wants how many teams would want him
Leafs wont take crappy contracts back

 

[Menzinger]

That’s the thing that bother me the most about Dubas, market inefficiencies. As I don’t think you can apply that to hockey due to the lack of movement among players.
Baseball is different bc there are a lot of movement of players(from top to bottom) and there are always late bloomers in baseball but rarely the case with hockey.

Theres not a direct comparison to be made, but there are definitely certain types of players overlooked.

A like like Ennis wouldnt typically be considered for a 4th line role on a lot pf teams because hes not.the typical "energy line" guy, but imo Leafs got gr eas at value from him lasy season. Then we can look at the draft a guy like nick Robertson likely wouldnt have never been drafted in the top 2-3 rounds by some teams due to his size, and while its obviously still early days in his development id say hes got a fair amount of promise

 

[Menzinger]

This kind of ignores what has been a pretty damn good job of compiling guys to fill out the roster. That's quite a bit harder than stars. We have a lot of guys we can bring in in a heartbeat to replace guys we will lose due to not being able to pay them.

Oh i really like how Dubas has approached the types of depth guys hes broughtt in. Just that the point i was getting at is its not the same philosophy which led to the whole "money ball" approach.

A better compsrison is what the Red Sox dis in 2004 - being able to mix together star players/big spending with also looking at undervalued guys to fill out the other parts of their lineup

 

[Gabriel426]

Theres not a direct comparison to be made, but there are definitely certain types of players overlooked.

A like like Ennis wouldnt typically be considered for a 4th line role on a lot pf teams because hes not.the typical "energy line" guy, but imo Leafs got gr eas at value from him lasy season. Then we can look at the draft a guy like nick Robertson likely wouldnt have never been drafted in the top 2-3 rounds by some teams due to his size, and while its obviously still early days in his development id say hes got a fair amount of promise

looking at undervalue players is what GMs should be doing all the time. Ennis is a good example And I am sure some can say the same about Shore too. Or Winnik a few yrs ago. However, these players are not World beaters, they are good value due to their 700-950K contract, if they are sign at 1.5-2.5mil, their value is meh.
If say Dubas can sign a castoff that’s ends up with 40 goals like Karlsson in Vegas, that’s kudos to Dubas. Off all the free wallet, Zai, Rosen, Borgman, Oz and Soup. Only Soup seems to be one that have good potential but if Soup next contract is at 3-4mil, then he explodes to become a better player, kudos to Dubas but if he remains a 3-4mil player, that’s just okay.
Do you see my point?
What Masai done with Spicy P and FVV, that’s gold. Dubas have not done that yet.

 

[Gabriel426]

He can ask all he wants how many teams would want him
Leafs wont take crappy contracts back

I actually think a lot of teams will ask for Marner if he is available.
just throwing it out here, Nucks sends Boeser and Loui to Leafs for Marner. Or Kings trade Kopitar for Marner. Or Devils sends Subban for Marner.

 

[ottomaddox]

Have any of you actually watched Moneyball? That movie wasn't even about spreadsheets, it was about finding different ways to win. The whole point was about them buying runs on base, not guys who can hit home runs, because the market paid the big hitters more than they were worth in terms of contributing to wins for a small market team. It's not a good movie or story, but at least get it right.

If you're going to get into histrionics about Dubas "playing moneyball", the equivalent would be stacking the team with guys who deny/gain zone entries instead of focusing on big point producers. That's not what's happening considering how weak our zone entry/denial has been this year.

At least know something about the movies you use to complain about problems that don't exist. It would be like me assuming you want a GM who's entire hockey knowledge is having watched Slapshot once and insisting he's going to stack the team full of Christian Hansons. Difference is, I don't need a strawman to tell you why abandoning speed and skill is stupid.

I think you're the only one that hasn't seen the movie "Moneyball". Right from the beginning The A's lose their star players to free agency (teams in major markets who offer them a lot of money). The owner of the A's tells Billy Bean that there's not going to be any money to sign high priced free agents.

So although they concentrated on getting on base, it was implied that they had to do it on a shoe string budget. So yes, spreadsheets was part of the story.

No one person in this thread wants a dichotomy here. It's not "skill/speed is not working. Let's trade them all for players who are masters at staged fighting"!

I think many people want what the leafs are lacking. They don't want to just punt speed and skill altogether.

 

[killer1980]

I imagine they also collaborate with each other on both matters to an extent, which I'd say is well and fine for any coach and GM to do.

I suspect Babcock thinks Dubas is a punk kid that doesn't know anything and Dubas thinks Babcock is an old fogy who time has passed by. I would doubt they talk at all.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Bracco isnt ready. I doubt he ever will be. His skating is suspect, he lacks any speed to give him space at the NHL level. His compete level is poor. He has no puck hunger, he floats and waits for line-mates to work for him and give him the puck. Aside from PP2 at the NHL level, a slowed down setting and more space, Bracco can use his vision and make plays. Bracco is a long shot to make the NHL, unless speed and compete drastically change.

His straight line up rink down rink skating is not NHL quality but his lateral edge work skating in either end of ice down low is perfectly fine. But he is making significant progress every year on his speed. If he stops progressing I agree he is likely done. But so far he has shown improvement every year. and his vision and hands are already top 50 in NHL. Between Mitch and him you can't tell the difference and some say Bracco is better. I don't see it as a long shot but agree if he can't keep up in the up down game he becomes a huge liability on ice.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

To me AJ is as good as gone as I don’t think he a dime of a dozen player.
If I have to choose between trading Mitch and Willie, I will choose Mitch bc he will bring in a much better player than Willie can. Also Mitch is a better player than Willie but he is not 3.93mil better than Willie.
To me it works out keeping Mitch and a ELC or minimum deal vet/player or Willie and a player at 4.6mil cap hit.

It will all come down to the CAP. This is part I don't like. It should come down to the hockey not the CAP. But life in a regulated hard CAP world is tricky.

 

[Lightsol]

I expect Babcock would have final say on the lineup. I also expect Dubas would have final say on who is on the team, and thus potentially available to be in that lineup. I imagine they also collaborate with each other on both matters to an extent, which I'd say is well and fine for any coach and GM to do.

I agree that they both collaborate. I just know that if I were to bring up the options out of the blue, someone would try to claim it's Dubas and only Dubas pushing the physical options to the minors, and I wanted to head that off by pointing out that Babcock has a lot of say over his own lineup.

 

[Martin Skoula]

I think you're the only one that hasn't seen the movie "Moneyball". Right from the beginning The A's lose their star players to free agency (teams in major markets who offer them a lot of money). The owner of the A's tells Billy Bean that there's not going to be any money to sign high priced free agents.

So although they concentrated on getting on base, it was implied that they had to do it on a shoe string budget. So yes, spreadsheets was part of the story.

No one person in this thread wants a dichotomy here. It's not "skill/speed is not working. Let's trade them all for players who are masters at staged fighting"!

I think many people want what the leafs are lacking. They don't want to just punt speed and skill altogether.

So how is what the Leafs are doing in any way Moneyball? People keep trying to use that movie as some sort of a dig at management when it's not even close to what's happening. We're not buying runs, we bought stars.

Nobody is against bringing in a Tkachuk, I agree.

 

[Menzinger]

I agree that they both collaborate. I just know that if I were to bring up the options out of the blue, someone would try to claim it's Dubas and only Dubas pushing the physical options to the minors, and I wanted to head that off by pointing out that Babcock has a lot of say over his own lineup.

Babcock banished Matt Martin to the pressbox less than 1.5 years into his contract.

The idea that hes demanding these bruisers in the lineup doesnt hold up to scrutiny (and im hardly a huge fan of Babs at this point....)

 

[killer1980]

Agreed.

Dubas doubled down to try to win this year and it really doesn't seem to be transpiring.

Every move that this management team has made confirms that they really don't understand the game one iota.

 

[ottomaddox]

So how is what the Leafs are doing in any way Moneyball? People keep trying to use that movie as some sort of a dig at management when it's not even close to what's happening. We're not buying runs, we bought stars.

Nobody is against bringing in a Tkachuk, I agree.

It doesn't. We've already covered that in this thread. Some fans, media, etc. have interpreted "Moneyball" pretty wildly. My interpretation of that phenomena (when Dubas was hired as an assistant) was that fans / media expected a technological/idealistic/newer approach to managing hockey.

Whether you believe the movie parallels Dubas or not, we are still left with our current situation: a team that is limping. A team that has not showed up to some of their bigger competition. A team that seems intimidated by physical play. Not too mention that the cap situation has handcuffed TOR's ability to do anything for the time being.

Perhaps some people are pushing agendas harder in this thread, but current team has played enough games to make fans question everyone (Shanny, Players, Babcock included).

 

[HamiltonNHL]

Every move that this management team has made confirms that they really don't understand the game one iota.

It's the parity era and it's just luck anyway.

The Me First RFAs have made watching the team less fun. The Leafs don't feel as tight a team as some of the others. I'm also tired of Babcock. His potty mouth on the bench is ineffective. The refs don't like the Leafs. I often see why. Hockey is a fun game, i'm going to play more and watch less this year.

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

Oh i really like how Dubas has approached the types of depth guys hes broughtt in. Just that the point i was getting at is its not the same philosophy which led to the whole "money ball" approach.

A better compsrison is what the Red Sox dis in 2004 - being able to mix together star players/big spending with also looking at undervalued guys to fill out the other parts of their lineup

Sure. I'm just getting at the notion that to me his advanced stats background and "moneyballing" (for lack of a better term) are seen in the "filling out the roster/farm" signings, where to me, he has done an excellent job. Really that's the most important part to us hopefully maintaining longer term success, along with drafting, where we have also done quite well.

 

[killer1980]

Sure. I'm just getting at the notion that to me his advanced stats background and "moneyballing" (for lack of a better term) are seen in the "filling out the roster/farm" signings, where to me, he has done an excellent job. Really that's the most important part to us hopefully maintaining longer term success, along with drafting, where we have also done quite well.

Really!!! How are you gonna feel when we just squeak into the playoffs and make a quick exit over the next 5 years. Or, better yet, don't make them at all. Dubas has destroyed this team by filling it up with self-entitled wimps.