Prediction Contest: What will Kyle Dubas' first "Moneyball" type move and who is untouchable?

therealkoho

Him/Leaf/fan
Jul 10, 2009
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the Prior
Only 6 more years...


yes, he definitely had a rough season, but all the while dealing with a high ankle sprain and a broken bone in his foot that didn't completely heel(punny no?)....his mobility was impacted in a negative fashion and his type of game relies on his ability to move and out-skate people

...and i'll bet you and the other naysayers will wanna forget the bad things you are saying about him now....Zaitsev may never ever be Borje Salming but the guy is a solid blueliner. in two years he may be the biggest bargain on the team
 

The CyNick

Freedom of Speech!
Sep 17, 2009
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And there you go again. Just the other day you again repeated this nonsense about how there are only about a dozen #1 Dmen in the league and the rest are "interchangeable". Now you're going on about "second pair" guys and "3rd pairing" guys but according to you, there all interchangeable so those labels make zero sense. You can't even stay consistent with the nonsense you spew and insist is accurate.

You're hilarious dude! :laugh::laugh:

I don't know if "I'm going on" about anything. Just stating that Rielly currently gets top 4 minutes and doesnt put up good defensive numbers in that role. So the only place left to go is 3rd pair minutes.

My feeling on Morgan actually proves my theory about interchangeable D men. Most guys in the league don't stand out, so they could be out almost anywhere in the lineup.

Also I would recommend holding off posting comments that only serve to increase hostilities. Best to just make your point without trying to hurl insults at other posters. We're all just here sharing our opinions, friend.
 

Brock Radunske

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Aug 8, 2012
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yes, he definitely had a rough season, but all the while dealing with a high ankle sprain and a broken bone in his foot that didn't completely heel(punny no?)....his mobility was impacted in a negative fashion and his type of game relies on his ability to move and out-skate people

...and i'll bet you and the other naysayers will wanna forget the bad things you are saying about him now....Zaitsev may never ever be Borje Salming but the guy is a solid blueliner. in two years he may be the biggest bargain on the team

I agree with your assessment on his physical talents but he doesn't seem like he processes the game at a high level. I know he's new to the NHL and hopefully he proves me wrong but I see him as a #5 on a good team and it's tough to pay a guy like that 4.5 mil for 7.
But like I said, I'd love to eat crow on this
 
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ottomaddox

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Oct 31, 2017
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I think it's a great time to re-visit this thread and the "Moneyball" concept.

When you consider how venerated Dubas was when he arrived as an Assistant.
Many fans bought into the notion that using analytics, and possession numbers would build great teams.

The whole idea of "Moneyball" is a complete failure when you consider the salaries of the Toronto Maple Leafs' Rising Stars.

You can blame Babcock all you want about his systems, but does this stick checking/soft team have what it takes to be successful (even in the regular season)? You can't blame Babcock for managing the cap. That's all on Dubas. I think there's a lot of improvement to go around and sooner or later Dubas is going to have to get some help.

Was "Moneyball" all it was cracked up to be?
 

ryno23

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Feb 5, 2010
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moneyball was one of the biggest farces in sports history. They took a book someone wrote and turned it into a move starring Brad Pitt and now people think Moneyball was successful

What the book or movie never told you was while the A's sought to find inequalities in the system by getting guys like Hattberg and salvages David Justice cause the Yankees didn't want him anymore and the A's got the Yanks to paydown his salary but the biggest thing never mentioned was they had 3 aces plus an elite closer.

They had Mulder, Zito and Hudson to lead the rotation and Koch as a big time closer. Those guys pitched 7 innings a night and not 5-6 innings like guys now. They also acquired Ted Lilly to give them 4 great starters.

So they did it by pitching not by having guys with good advance stats.

Leafs are similar that they have their Zito, Mulder, Hudson and Koch in Matthews, Tavares, Marner and Andersen. Problem is you can't build the rest of the roster with advance stats guys. You need guys with heart and soul guys who will pay the price to win to show all how it is done.

Leafs has success in the playoffs in the late 90's and early 2000's not cause of Sundin but because they had Gary Roberts leading by example, Darcy Tucker putting his body on the line.
 

Trapper

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Nov 21, 2013
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moneyball was one of the biggest farces in sports history. They took a book someone wrote and turned it into a move starring Brad Pitt and now people think Moneyball was successful

What the book or movie never told you was while the A's sought to find inequalities in the system by getting guys like Hattberg and salvages David Justice cause the Yankees didn't want him anymore and the A's got the Yanks to paydown his salary but the biggest thing never mentioned was they had 3 aces plus an elite closer.

They had Mulder, Zito and Hudson to lead the rotation and Koch as a big time closer. Those guys pitched 7 innings a night and not 5-6 innings like guys now. They also acquired Ted Lilly to give them 4 great starters.

So they did it by pitching not by having guys with good advance stats.

Leafs are similar that they have their Zito, Mulder, Hudson and Koch in Matthews, Tavares, Marner and Andersen. Problem is you can't build the rest of the roster with advance stats guys. You need guys with heart and soul guys who will pay the price to win to show all how it is done.

Leafs has success in the playoffs in the late 90's and early 2000's not cause of Sundin but because they had Gary Roberts leading by example, Darcy Tucker putting his body on the line.
To my knowledge Moneyball never won a championship (unlike the Hollywood version) and the team isn't some kind of powerhouse today.
 

ottomaddox

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Oct 31, 2017
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moneyball was one of the biggest farces in sports history. They took a book someone wrote and turned it into a move starring Brad Pitt and now people think Moneyball was successful

What the book or movie never told you was while the A's sought to find inequalities in the system by getting guys like Hattberg and salvages David Justice cause the Yankees didn't want him anymore and the A's got the Yanks to paydown his salary but the biggest thing never mentioned was they had 3 aces plus an elite closer.

They had Mulder, Zito and Hudson to lead the rotation and Koch as a big time closer. Those guys pitched 7 innings a night and not 5-6 innings like guys now. They also acquired Ted Lilly to give them 4 great starters.

So they did it by pitching not by having guys with good advance stats.

Leafs are similar that they have their Zito, Mulder, Hudson and Koch in Matthews, Tavares, Marner and Andersen. Problem is you can't build the rest of the roster with advance stats guys. You need guys with heart and soul guys who will pay the price to win to show all how it is done.

Leafs has success in the playoffs in the late 90's and early 2000's not cause of Sundin but because they had Gary Roberts leading by example, Darcy Tucker putting his body on the line.

I tried to explain to the Moneyball people what kind of personale TOR used to win with. For some reason no one wants to learn from history. They only want to believe that a newer more idealistic way of doing things is the only solution.
 

Menzinger

Kessel4LadyByng
Apr 24, 2014
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I think it's a great time to re-visit this thread and the "Moneyball" concept.

When you consider how venerated Dubas was when he arrived as an Assistant.
Many fans bought into the notion that using analytics, and possession numbers would build great teams.

The whole idea of "Moneyball" is a complete failure when you consider the salaries of the Toronto Maple Leafs' Rising Stars.

You can blame Babcock all you want about his systems, but does this stick checking/soft team have what it takes to be successful (even in the regular season)? You can't blame Babcock for managing the cap. That's all on Dubas. I think there's a lot of improvement to go around and sooner or later Dubas is going to have to get some help.

Was "Moneyball" all it was cracked up to be?

I dont really understand what youre trying to argue here...

Star player salaries dont have anything to do with "moneyball".....

The broader imoact of this approach is to look for undervalued players - which seemingly has worked well. Ie Kerfoot, Ennis, ect to help fill out the roster.
 
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ottomaddox

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I dont really understand what youre trying to argue here...

Star player salaries dont have anything to do with "moneyball".....

The broader imoact of this approach is to look for undervalued players - which seemingly has worked well. Ie Kerfoot, Ennis, ect to help fill out the roster.

Ok let's just pretend that the movie and it's theme doesn't exist at all.

Petan, Ceci, Ennis, Spezza, Kerfoot, Sparks Barrie, Shore, Gravel, Hutch, Mikheyev, etc.

(Feel free to add more)


Are the fruits of Dubas' labour?!
 
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Menzinger

Kessel4LadyByng
Apr 24, 2014
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Ok let's just pretend that the movie and it's theme doesn't exist at all.

Petan, Ceci, Ennis, Spezza, Kerfoot, Sparks Barrie, Shore, Gravel, Hutch, Mikheyev, etc.

(Feel free to add more)


Are the fruits of Dubas' labour?!

The problem is your trying to claim that a movie about a totally different sport, team (ie a budget one) and professional league is seemingly what Dubas trying to copy. Which doesnt seem to be true for multiple reasons.

But we see Dubas not wanting to overspend money on depth guys like Marleau when he can get go out and find comparbale players like Mikheyev for a fraction of the cost and have an equal or greater on ice impact. And i dont really see what the problem is with this....
 

rumman

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Sep 10, 2008
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Ok let's just pretend that the movie and it's theme doesn't exist at all.

Petan, Ceci, Ennis, Spezza, Kerfoot, Sparks Barrie, Shore, Gravel, Hutch, Mikheyev, etc.

(Feel free to add more)


Are the fruits of Dubas' labour?!
I'm starting to think that for each problem Dubas solves he creates a problem of equal concern.
 
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Pilky01

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personally I don't think Dubas is interested in solving the lack of physicality on this team. He's nowhere near ready to admit his thought process on this subject is flawed, at least that's my take.

Yeah we are kind of f***ed here because the GM is more personally invested in proving his management philosophy correct than in building a winning team.

Dubas will drag the roster down with him out of pure obstinance.
 

Pilky01

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moneyball was one of the biggest farces in sports history. They took a book someone wrote and turned it into a move starring Brad Pitt and now people think Moneyball was successful

Having been a Blue Jays fan during the JP Riccardi era I was never able to take "Moneyball" seriously.


Leafs are similar that they have their Zito, Mulder, Hudson and Koch in Matthews, Tavares, Marner and Andersen. Problem is you can't build the rest of the roster with advance stats guys. You need guys with heart and soul guys who will pay the price to win to show all how it is done.

Leafs has success in the playoffs in the late 90's and early 2000's not cause of Sundin but because they had Gary Roberts leading by example, Darcy Tucker putting his body on the line.

This is 1000% correct. Mats was great. But those teams were led by Roberts, Tucker, and of course Cujo.

Hell they won multiple rounds on the strength of Gary Roberts and Alyn McCauley while Mats was out injured.
 
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4thline

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personally I don't think Dubas is interested in solving the lack of physicality on this team. He's nowhere near ready to admit his thought process on this subject is flawed, at least that's my take.

Hyman and Dermott back in the lineup will go a long way in terms of personnel, but the bigger issue is how players play - not what players play.

Moore, Timashov, Kerfoot- these are all smallish skill players that surface level "need more hits" analysis would say need to be replaced, but all three are quite feisty and hard to play against. We need more intensity from the players getting the minutes, not a designated thumper. We saw it in the playoffs last year.


IMO the real area of concern was in his strategic thinking, and it's two fold. Tactically I think Dubas has made good moves, and that we have the personnel to win. If you're judging solely on the mandate of tap-dancing around the cap and ice the best team possible while not jettisoning any of the young players he did a phenomenal job.

But that's the wrong mandate. Are we 3+ 1st round picks better than if we kept Marleau, got 16th overall from Colorado instead of Barrie, traded Kap and AJ, and signed Hutton/Sekera/Shattenkirk? No. I think Dubas was too married to keeping Kap/AJ, and was either coerced away from or too scared to roll the dice on letting the on paper roster suffer for a year to better the franchise long term.
 
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Pilky01

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But that's the wrong mandate. Are we 3+ 1st round picks better than if we kept Marleau, got 16th overall from Colorado instead of Barrie, traded Kap and AJ, and signed Hutton/Sekera/Shattenkirk? No. I think Dubas was too married to keeping Kap/AJ, and was either coerced away from or too scared to roll the dice on letting the on paper roster suffer for a year to better the franchise long term.

This is a big one. Dubas manages from a position of fear. He is afraid to let players walk or to trade them away because if they succeed elsewhere then the media will blame him.

He has put all of his chips (figuratively and literally) on the Leafs "homegrown" talent and is terrified of expanding beyond that narrow viewpoint.

He has zero imagination and is managing the team out of fear of losing players instead of endeavor to improve the roster.

Hes like a kid playing EA NHL who refuses to move his sentimental favourite.
 
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Gabriel426

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Jun 30, 2015
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Moneyball is a concept, it is a different way of looking and solving a problem/issue. Like all concepts and methods, you have to look at something with different views to get a better understanding.

Anyhow, I think Dubas need to make tough decision if the team continues to under perform.
 

4thline

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Jul 18, 2014
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This is a big one. Dubas manages from a position of fear. He is afraid to let players walk or to trade them away because if they succeed elsewhere then the media will blame him.

He has put all of his chips (figuratively and literally) on the Leafs "homegrown" talent and is terrified to expanding beyond that narrow viewpoint.

He has zero imagination and is managing the team out of fear of losing players instead of endeavor to improve the roster.

Hes like a kid playing EA NHL who refuses to move his sentimental favourite.

With regard to home grown talent, I don't think fear is the reason. I think he genuinely believes in these players and their top end potential, and means to win with them. I don't think he's scared to go beyond that, instead that he genuinely thinks it's the best course. I even think it's defensible with Nylander (potential to be special), and borderline with Kapanen, not so with AJ.

I do wonder about board interference saying no to a planned set back year though. It was a lay up, and offered a big developmental opportunity to the big 3.
 

ottomaddox

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The problem is your trying to claim that a movie about a totally different sport, team (ie a budget one) and professional league is seemingly what Dubas trying to copy. Which doesnt seem to be true for multiple reasons.

But we see Dubas not wanting to overspend money on depth guys like Marleau when he can get go out and find comparbale players like Mikheyev for a fraction of the cost and have an equal or greater on ice impact. And i dont really see what the problem is with this....

Despite your extreme example (Marleau at 6.25 million vs Mikheyev 940K), you probably don't need a whole analytics department to see that almost every team has this phenomena. Every organization has someone who is paid less and performing more. Sometimes by design and sometimes by chance.

I'm sorry, but you can't just deny what we went through at the time of Dubas hiring: Leaf fans bringing to light the merits of analytics, newspaper articles on how innovative Dubas is, and this notion that Dubas was going to go with speed/skill as a recipe for success.

Perhaps HF, the fans, and media were mislead, but it doesn't mean it didn't happen.
 

IPS

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Sep 28, 2017
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This is a big one. Dubas manages from a position of fear. He is afraid to let players walk or to trade them away because if they succeed elsewhere then the media will blame him.

He has put all of his chips (figuratively and literally) on the Leafs "homegrown" talent and is terrified to expanding beyond that narrow viewpoint.

He has zero imagination and is managing the team out of fear of losing players instead of endeavor to improve the roster.

Hes like a kid playing EA NHL who refuses to move his sentimental favourite.

Unfortunately I have to agree with this.

I truly believe that the biggest hurdle to a coaching change is Dubas being terrified of a new coach not finding instant success with the roster and having all of the media and fans turn their negative attention towards him.

I mean the guy has invested A TON into this season between the Marner contract (him holding out meant he was sitting the year), the Kadri trade with Barrie, Muzzin, etc... and he honestly doesn't seem to be willing to make a high-risk move. Seems like he's sitting in his office hoping and praying that the extreme lack of effort/hard work plaguing this team is going to magically solve itself.
 
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Mess

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Moneyball is a concept, it is a different way of looking and solving a problem/issue. Like all concepts and methods, you have to look at something with different views to get a better understanding.

Anyhow, I think Dubas need to make tough decision if the team continues to under perform.

Speaking of looking, a person playing Moneyball are making decisions by using analytics to manage your transactions and decisions based on the stats, however the irony of that is you don't even need the eye-test and even watch games to make decisions simply take the data from the games results, focus on ones that you believe impacts the outcome and act accordingly.

The primary source should be viewing and accessing what happens on the ice and how the game is played and Moneyball a distant secondary option to support your viewing conclusions.
 

Lightsol

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Aug 2, 2005
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I truly believe that the biggest hurdle to a coaching change is Dubas being terrified of a new coach not finding instant success with the roster and having all of the media and fans turn their negative attention towards him.

I can't really blame him for being nervous about pulling the trigger, on either a big move or a coaching change. Because let's face it, there's a group in Toronto who really didn't like his hiring in the first place, and the group includes some of the biggest loud-mouths in Toronto (hello, Steve!). And if this goes wrong, I think his JOB's on the line, considering the assets he's already invested into the team this year...
 

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