What We Have Learned

[orcatown]

The 2021 season, such as it was has, told us a few things about the club that either confirmed or altered expectations we had going into it. Some of these IMO are:

1. The team was worse than expected. Right now, we are probably the worse team in Canada and I doubt few would have seen Ottawa surpassing us as the season went on. Just a dreadful commentary on seven years into the Benning regime.

2. The euphoria created by the Canucks playoff run last year was misplaced. Canucks returned with a thud to earth helping to reveal, once again, that some late season success is no indication of future success nor is it of any importance in leading to future success (like our wins now will have no impact on what we do next year)

3. Letting Markstrom walk and retaining Demko now looks like the right move. Demko has demonstrated he is a bona vide NHL starter with some nice upside. Markstrom was mostly good in Calgary but his age and salary makes him a second choice to Demko

4. Schmidt did not live up to expectations. I doubt he was never more than adequate. He has very limited offense and while decent in his end was not a game changer for the team. Based on this, he is paid too much, given the present salary restrictions. In the end, Tanev at the cheaper price, is looking the better choice. When you consider Tanev’s benefit to Hughes and his greater mobility, you probably have to concede a mistake was made here. That is also supported by the fact that we wouldn’t have had to give up a 3rd if we had just retained Tanev. Also Tanev had better health than Schmidt this season and never missed a game.

5. Hughes experienced more trouble in his own zone than was expected. Fears about his ability to handle size around his net and deep in his end absolutely surfaced. Fact he was a huge minus player has to be factored into any future contract.

6. Holtby was less consistent than expected. Had some good moments but also very poor at times. Expectation that he would be an automatic for the ED have diminished and he looks like a salary problem and possible buy out as team moves ahead. Now seems like the team could have paid less and got similar goal-tending from a much less expensive player (which would have supplied money toward retaining someone like Tanev or Toffoli)

7. Virtanen regressed more than most expected. Even people like me, who felt Virtanen should have been moved or just let go at his asking price, thought he would be better than he was. His off-ice problems, which I guess some might have expected, were a lot more severe than almost anyone could have predicted.

8. Boeser confirmed that he is a streaky player who needs service to be at his best.

9. Pettersson had a much worse season than expected. Even before the wrist problem, he was laboring and not the same player as he was the season before. Scoring was well off. His injury might have confirmed to some that he might be, given his slender build, prone to injuries.

10. Elder’s decline, especially on offense, was anticipated and was realized.

11. Myers confirmed he is overpaid and one more bad signing.

12. Sutter confirmed that he is too banged up to contribute on a steady basis.

13. Hamonic confirmed the expectations of most people that he would be serviceable NHL d-man. However, the idea that he could replace Tanev was not achieved.

14. Hoglander over met the expectations of almost everyone. I, like many, had him headed to Utica and thought the only reason he might stay is because we were so weak in the top 6. Fact he turned out to being close to our top forward was a huge surprise.

15. Vesey came in with some hoping he could help but he mostly floundered.

16. Some had Gaudette as an improving third line center heading into the season but he miserably failed at that and didn’t do much better on the wing. Few could have predicted he’d be shipped out for a fringe NHLer and the Canucks would have to moved down in the draft to do make the deal.

17. There was hope among some that Rathbone would be NHL ready. He wasn’t although he stuck on the taxi squad for awhile. Late season he showed enough to again have the expectation that he might be ready by next year.

18. Some had Joulevi breaking into the lineup as full timer but he never really came close to achieving that. Those that saw Joulevi as already a bust now seem closer to the truth.

19. Heading into the season Gadjovich was pretty much written off as a prospect but a good season in Utica has created improved expectations. Whether that is warranted is open to question. Also play of Woo, Podkolzin, Costmar, Lockwood and, to and extend, Focht has increased expectations for them.

20. Think it would have been pretty unanimous that Green would have gotten a contract by now. Fact he hasn’t might indicate changes ahead and maybe an attempt by management to pin the blame for this rag tag season on him when the true fault lies obviously elsewhere.

21. Hopes that some of the older RFA signings might contribute went unfulfilled. However, late season play of Graovac and play of Bailey, before injury, did help to rekindle some muted hopes here.

22. Hope that somehow the Eriksson contract could be unloaded (always a forlorn one) were, of course, proven illusionary and even the hope showed naivety of Canuck management.

23. Pursuit of OEL was proven to be an awful idea given the very mediocre (-17) season he had. His contract straight up for Eriksson's, right now, would be terrible deal for the Canucks moving ahead.

Tried to cover some bases here but feel free to add others

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[Joe Rogan]

These bullshit late game efforts cost us Matthews, Zegras and now Clarke. But I guess we'll just have to wait and see

 

[SeawaterOnIce]

Team had 6 wins in their final 17 games in the 2019-2020 season before the "playoffs" happened in which the Canucks lucked out facing a junk Wild team with Fiala as their best forward and an injured Suter. Then they got absolutely dominated (posession wise) by Vegas and the Blues but lucked out having 2 goalies hit their stride.

The 2020 "playoffs" saw 2 12th place teams fluke their way into winning a round. That whole thing was a total farce and the games looked like shit until the conference finals. I think many people developed unrealistic expectations after that.

 

[DFAC]

Lots of disappointments this season, not many positives aside from Hoglander and Demko.

Seems like its just the same thing over and over again which is why so many fans (myself included) have become so apathetic with this team. We're all numb.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

Good analysis other than the gratuitous Benning apologists comment imo.
Even bad teams have some bright spots and while some were listed I think, Boeser, for example took a pretty big step this year. His play without EP in the lineup really solidified him as a top line player. Streaky? Yes. As are most goal scorers but his playmaking was also very good.
A season to forget even before Covid hit. But some good stories there as well.

 

[DCantheDDad]

Lots of disappointments this season, not many positives aside from Hoglander and Demko.

Seems like its just the same thing over and over again which is why so many fans (myself included) have become so apathetic with this team. We're all numb.

It's the numbness combined with the fact there is no realistic hope for a contending team in the near future. Like honestly, how do they get out from under their inefficient contracts and compete with the core that currently exists? Like, what is my incentive to tune in to more of this pain?

 

[Svencouver]

The fact that everyone kinda struggled told me less about them and more about the coach that was unable to turn his roster into success

 

[Svencouver]

I think this team does have a lot of high end potential and I think their success last year was earned. I also think that it was a very fragile success; and what we should be aspiring to is the consistent dominance of a true contender.

I also think that this team was, absolutely, pretty f***ed by circumstance this year. COVID destroyed a team that was already pretty bruised and really just nothing went their way. But they were already struggling before that in a way that was a clear step back from last season and a step in the wrong direction even at our best and healthiest.

I'm not too down on this teams prospects going forward - where we're at is a crossroads. A very pivotal point in the trajectory of this core and this franchise. Benning had already done a LOT of damage to this team and its timeline. We could have contended this year if it weren't for his mishandling of things. A fundamental change from the top-down to the way this franchise is run and managed at every level needs to be made this instant with no hesitation, and a return made to the intelligent, savvy, forward thinking management of Gillis and Gilman that brought us from another struggling core to two presidents trophies and potentially the best team to never win the cup. We can be the Sabres or we can choose to be the Lightning, and I hope the Aquillinis recognize the value of making the right choice and strip away the franchise from Francesco before he drives it into the dirt any further.

 

[J Corso]

This points out how unrealistic most peoples expectations are.

Holtby was exactly as consistent as I expected him to be. He sucked for the last few years, expecting anything other than continued suckage was unrealistic. It was pointed out at the beginning of the season that Schmidt was paid like a top 10 defenseman and unlikely to provide large value based on that.

And many of us pointed out that our "magic playoff run" was a completely covid based miracle. Covid stopped the season before we could fall out of the playoffs, it allowed us to get healthy and it caused us to play a Minnesota team that sold at the deadline unaware it was going to let them in and they weren't allowed to use Kaprizoff. And finally it ravaged the health of a St. Louis team. Because everything was private last year we still don't know how badly they were infected.

@forty47seven pointed out the Canucks were dead last for getting points from the Canadian teams last year, even worse than Ottawa here in post 145 : Speculation: - What do you think about the whole canadian division No one seemed to pay any attention to it.

I guess its the definition of being a fan to be overly optimistic, but in my few years of following this team I've already learned that's a stupid thing to do. This team will always quickly drag you back to reality.

 

[Bubbles]

Not mentioned:

Despite Benning's best attempt at ruining his career, Michael DiPietro has persevered, and has excelled. He only played 4 games this year but was named to the WC team by Luongo, which is indication of how much other smart people think of him.

 

[bandwagonesque]

These bullshit late game efforts cost us Matthews, Zegras and now Clarke. But I guess we'll just have to wait and see

The team has a worse points percentage since returning from COVID than they did in the rest of the season.

 

[F A N]

A lot of things came together in a bad way for the Canucks this season starting with losing Toffoli, the schedule, Holtby's play to start the year (with Demko not being a whole lot better), Petey's injury, and COVID. As we have seen from this group in past years, once the wheels fall off it really falls off. The schedule is so tight that a bad stretch can really move you down the standings. The Flames, for example, has gone 6-4-0 in their past 10, Ottawa 7-2. I am hoping the Canucks don't continue to pick up points in meaningless games.

Personally, I think the Canucks are in a better position in over the next 2-3 years than the Flames and Habs. It's hard to say for Ottawa as they are early on in their rebuild and there's a lot that has to go right for them to move up the standings.

I think what's clear is that the Canucks do need another top 6 forward (ideally 2 more), the defense needs to continue to be remade, our last offseason was a disaster, and we need to get rid of our overpaid players while not spending our cap space inefficiently.

 

[krutovsdonut]

it was an annus horribilus.

the clear bright spots were hoglander and podkholzin.

the progression of other prospects but one was also encouraging but mostly took place in an ahl with no veterans. rathbone leads a group of guys who look to be ready or close, but several may regress next season in a normal ahl. juolevi is a flat out mystery to me what happened. it was not on the ice. i assume he is persona non grata for reasons and gone.

the team freaked out when marky beat them early and never fully recovered their composure. they were clearly angry about toffoli, marky and tanev. combine that with adjustment problems and fragile confidence and the season was over 10 games in. a big part of it is that green could not find a way to make schmidt a 1d. either his play in vegas was a mirage, or green failed at making the key transition from tanev to another guy. watching the games you get the feeling green clearly prefers the way myers and hamonic play hockey.

i do think the bad historic record against canadian teams played a part. they needed to believe they could beat a bunch of teams that have historically had their number, and they did not believe it enough. it's potentially a different season if they get to feast on the california teams.

the parade of veteran injuries was absolutely brutal. whatever you think of those players, they weren't playing, and the replacement fill ins were not better.

it's a measure of how bad things have been that virtanen's situation hardly has any media traction,

i remain worred about pettersson's change of agent as my primary concern this season. why are he and hughes allied and what does it mean for the future?

bottom line, they are not this bad, but they are not good either. they are riddled with issues, headaches and problems. management and coaching seems checked out. it's pretty obvious an axe is looming.

 

[Canucks LB]

These bullshit late game efforts cost us Matthews, Zegras and now Clarke. But I guess we'll just have to wait and see

This is not even Remotely True.
Zegras, For sure.
But nobody knows the Ceiling for these kids, Pod can be just as good, If not better.
What I like about Zegras is that he is a Center.
Nobody knows where Brandt Clarke is gonna go, he can slip to 7th, or be picked in the top 3.
Matthews? Why because of the Lottery Balls? Everything would be different if the Canucks picked in that spot, That's not how it works lol
Just typing 1 extra thing, or writing down 1 extra letter, would change the lottery position completely.

 

[Hit the post]

Still no administrative executive hired. Instead we have the guy spending most of his time doing amateur scouting leaving all the other duties of being a GM to the legendary Weisbrod.

Who cares about the cap? Who cares about contracts?

Lol at bringing in Courtnall. What experience does he exactly have in the office?

 

[Burke's Evil Spirit]

4. Schmidt did not live up to expectations. I doubt he was never more than adequate. He has very limited offense and while decent in his end was not a game changer for the team. Based on this, he is paid too much, given the present salary restrictions. In the end, Tanev at the cheaper price, is looking the better choice. When you consider Tanev’s benefit to Hughes and his greater mobility, you probably have to concede a mistake was made here. That is also supported by the fact that we wouldn’t have had to give up a 3rd if we had just retained Tanev. Also Tanev had better health than Schmidt this season and never missed a game.

This is a really good breakdown but I'm going to push back on this a bit.

Someone else pointed out that Schmidt went from looking like an all-star in Vegas last year to looking just okay for us. Meanwhile Tanev had a decent year for us last year and looks like an all-star in Calgary.

It makes sense to me that a rush-joining, passing d-man like Schmidt doesn't look as effective under whatever bunker mentality system Green was going with these days. With a new coach, with a new system maybe focused a bit more on possession, I'd like to see what Schmidt can do.

I also think Edler, at this point, is a replacement-level player and Schmidt has had to carry him to a degree (in tough minutes) that is affecting his game.

 

[Hit the post]

This is a really good breakdown but I'm going to push back on this a bit.

Someone else pointed out that Schmidt went from looking like an all-star in Vegas last year to looking just okay for us. Meanwhile Tanev had a decent year for us last year and looks like an all-star in Calgary.

It makes sense to me that a rush-joining, passing d-man like Schmidt doesn't look as effective under whatever bunker mentality system Green was going with these days. With a new coach, with a new system maybe focused a bit more on possession, I'd like to see what Schmidt can do.

I also think Edler, at this point, is a replacement-level player and Schmidt has had to carry him to a degree (in tough minutes) that is affecting his game.

I've mentioned this before but exactly WHO on our blue line is better than just not being a liability on the ice? Once you get beyond Schmidt, you have to start thinking REALLY hard. Harmonic is ok but at this point in his career, not somebody you want handling tough defensive minutes in other than a depth situation.

You can say this also to our forwards.

But after 7 years, Benning needs more time.

 

[Pastor Of Muppetz]

I think the Canucks have some great building blocks moving forward, and am fully expecting a rebound next year...A few thoughts..
-Schmidt was playing very well when the Canucks were clawing their way back up the standings in March, very underwhelming since the covid break.
-Hamonic , since his return has been a good player for the Canucks, hope we re sign him.
-Holtby, after a brutal start ..really pulled himself together around the covid break, and was outstanding in those two games against the division leading Leafs..He usually gets the 'gassed' version of the Canucks, as he usually gets the second game of a b2b, where the team doesnt show up..

All in all, a real frustrating year, and the whole covid thing was the cherry on top..Having said that, the worst part of the season was the first 3 weeks, with a relatively healthy roster..

 

[4Twenty]

This is a really good breakdown but I'm going to push back on this a bit.

Someone else pointed out that Schmidt went from looking like an all-star in Vegas last year to looking just okay for us. Meanwhile Tanev had a decent year for us last year and looks like an all-star in Calgary.

It makes sense to me that a rush-joining, passing d-man like Schmidt doesn't look as effective under whatever bunker mentality system Green was going with these days. With a new coach, with a new system maybe focused a bit more on possession, I'd like to see what Schmidt can do.

I also think Edler, at this point, is a replacement-level player and Schmidt has had to carry him to a degree (in tough minutes) that is affecting his game.

But Travis' "system" preaches for the defense to leave the zone and jump into the rush. That's why they're so exposed at the back all the time. It's why opposing coaches called the canucks the most aggressive team....because lots of times the defensman without the puck is ahead of the forwards.

 

[Pastor Of Muppetz]

This is not even Remotely True.
Zegras, For sure.
But nobody knows the Ceiling for these kids, Pod can be just as good, If not better.
What I like about Zegras is that he is a Center.
Nobody knows where Brandt Clarke is gonna go, he can slip to 7th, or be picked in the top 3.
Matthews? Why because of the Lottery Balls? Everything would be different if the Canucks picked in that spot, That's not how it works lol
Just typing 1 extra thing, or writing down 1 extra letter, would change the lottery position completely.

Canucks wiped out a quarter of their lottery odds last night, after Boeser scores...A very Canuck thing to happen..

 

[Burke's Evil Spirit]

But Travis' "system" preaches for the defense to leave the zone and jump into the rush. That's why they're so exposed at the back all the time. It's why opposing coaches called the canucks the most aggressive team....because lots of times the defensman without the puck is ahead of the forwards.

I feel like that's true for everyone other than the Schmidt-Edler pairing which got buried by Green as the shutdown pairing and didn't really spend a lot of time on the attack.

 

[Canucks LB]

Canucks wiped out a quarter of their lottery odds last night, after Boeser scores...A very Canuck thing to happen..

That I agree with

 

[Andy Dufresne]

It's the numbness combined with the fact there is no realistic hope for a contending team in the near future. Like honestly, how do they get out from under their inefficient contracts and compete with the core that currently exists? Like, what is my incentive to tune in to more of this pain?

Honestly, we get out from the vast majority of our terrible contracts/cap hits by waiting 1 year. Doesn't make our future full of roses and sunshine, but at least we don't have many shit contracts on the books after that. Of course if Benning is still gm, then we still have a problem.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

9. Pettersson had a much worse season than expected. Even before the wrist problem, he was laboring and not the same player as he was the season before. Scoring was well off. His injury might have confirmed to some that he might be, given his slender build, prone to injuries.

Petey had a very slow start to the year. 2 points in the first 8 games. After that he put up 19pts in 18 games. Not sure what more can be expected from him ? He's been sorely missed.

 

[4Twenty]

Petey had a very slow start to the year. 2 points in the first 8 games. After that he put up 19pts in 18 games. Not sure what more can be expected from him ? He's been sorely missed.

Pettersson was fine. He hit like double the posts of the next guy in his limited season. He was very good after the slow start. He's not giving any discount up for it either. The stats over 3 seasons are elite.

Better PPG than Auston Matthews' first 3 seasons.