What probability do you feel Ovechkin has to catch Gretzky now?

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Confused Turnip

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Nov 29, 2019
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He said that he will only play for Washington as a matter of principle. I think they are waiting for the deal to happen after the expansion draft for Seattle.
This. The reason nobody's panicking or talking about the Ovi contract as much as you'd expect them to is because I think a lot of people understand this. The Ovi-Washington relationship is pretty unique even for a superstar, Ovi has 100% confidence the Caps will sign him back and the Caps have 100% confidence Ovi won't go to another NHL team. In that situation it makes a lot of sense not to have Ovechkin under contract during the expansion draft. But they can't really say it out loud.
 
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ALLCAPSALLTHETIME

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Oct 10, 2009
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Gretzky is pretty clearly the greatest playmaker, biggest superstar, and maybe the best overall hockey player in history. That's pretty close to being beyond dispute, though some would say Howe and Orr have claim to being best-overall.

What is in dispute is Gretzky's claim to being the top goal scorer -- and that isn't really a new argument. Even during his prime, a lot of people felt Mike Bossy or Mario Lemieux was the better pure scorer. Across the course of a full career, both Howe and Jagr accumulated larger totals if we give them some margin for factors beyond their control (schedule length, leaguewide scoring rates).

Gretzky simply has the raw figure that nobody has beaten, 892. It's a bit like Joe Malone holding the single-game goal scoring record for over 100 years. It would take a freak event for anyone to ever score 7 goals in a game again, but it wasn't a freak event when it happened... Malone scored 7 only three weeks after Newsy Lalonde scored 6, and then Malone came back and scored 6 again only six weeks later, which was only three days after Cy Denneny scored 6. The raw record of 7 is somewhat meaningless as a result. 892 has a similar quality, being heavily reliant on playing during an era of 8-6 scoreboards.

There's no way Ovechkin will ever be the same level of star or overall player as Gretzky. But as rational-thinking people, we can look at the circumstances of his 724 against Gretzky's 892 -- what those numbers actually signify -- and make a reasonable conclusion that the 724 is actually the more impressive historical feat. And we can hope that Ovechkin hangs around to set the raw record, Marleau'ing it if necessary, so we don't have to have this conversation for generations to come.

Good post. :thumbu:

Gretzky had 894 goals, btw.
 
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JasonRoseEh

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Oct 23, 2018
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"As a goal scoring player, Ovechkin literally does everything better. Everything"

What does this mean, exactly?
Shoots harder and better, skates much faster, is stronger and a more versatile goal scorer as evidenced by his heatmap throughout his career.
 

JasonRoseEh

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Oct 23, 2018
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But we ARE NOT TALKING IN TERMS OF CAREER! We are talking how many goals would Gretzky score in today's league, if he had a time machine. And that would be a lot.

Everything else you say is a speculation and are rightfully laughed out of every serious historic discussion.

I think he would get his 200 points and 80+ goals, just like he did back then. You don't, and that's OK: neither of us can prove it. But what's UNDISPUTED is where Gretzky was WRT Jagr and Sakic, and where Jagr and Sakic are WRT Ovechkin. Now you can have the last word, I don't care.
Then you're fooling yourself. If no one has even sniffed 70 in the modern era there's zero chance Gretzky comes in and comes close, zero chance.
 
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JasonRoseEh

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Except for last seasons rocket winner Pastrnak, who happens to be a bit shorter than Gretzky (182 vs 183 cm)?
48 on arguably the best line in hockey and he's only come close to that one year. He would have hit 50 sure but this 70-80 goal talk from Gretzky in the modern era of hockey is truly embarrassing. Pasta is also listed as the same height and is a bigger man overall.
 
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JasonRoseEh

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Oct 23, 2018
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Just to highlight how hard to do this I will summarize with these numbers:

Last time 48 goals were scored - 1 year ago
Last time 51 goals were scored - 2 years ago
53 goals - 6 years ago
60 goals - 9 years ago (once in 13 years)
65 goals - 13 years ago (once in 27 years)
76 goals - 28 years ago
86 goals - 30 years ago
87 goals - 37 years ago
92 goals - 39 years ago
Gretzky would pot 80 in the modern NHL no problem though man....
 

S E P H

Cloud IX
Mar 5, 2010
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Sadly I don't think so, but he's had some of the worst aspects to happen to a player chasing a record like that including an entire lockout, half of a lockout, a pandemic to close off last one-forth of a season, and the same pandemic reducing the travels and schedule even more. Gretzky got pretty much all the free time to play the way he wanted in the era of stand-up goalers.
 
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HurricaneFanatic

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Jan 16, 2020
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48 on arguably the best line in hockey and he's only come close to that one year. He would have hit 50 sure but this 70-80 goal talk from Gretzky in the modern era of hockey is truly embarrassing. Pasta is also listed as the same height and is a bigger man overall.
Maybe not 70-80, but PRIME Wayne Gretzky was the greatest goal scorer ever so him getting a few goals in the 60s i wouldn't doubt. Yes, he was that good. The problem for Wayne is his goal scoring prime was extremely short compared to guys like Ovi who's goal scoring prowless lasted much longer.
 
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MacMacandBarbie

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Dec 9, 2019
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Gretzky is pretty clearly the greatest playmaker, biggest superstar, and maybe the best overall hockey player in history. That's pretty close to being beyond dispute, though some would say Howe and Orr have claim to being best-overall.

What is in dispute is Gretzky's claim to being the top goal scorer -- and that isn't really a new argument. Even during his prime, a lot of people felt Mike Bossy or Mario Lemieux was the better pure scorer. Across the course of a full career, both Howe and Jagr accumulated larger totals if we give them some margin for factors beyond their control (schedule length, leaguewide scoring rates).

Gretzky simply has the raw figure that nobody has beaten, 892. It's a bit like Joe Malone holding the single-game goal scoring record for over 100 years. It would take a freak event for anyone to ever score 7 goals in a game again, but it wasn't a freak event when it happened... Malone scored 7 only three weeks after Newsy Lalonde scored 6, and then Malone came back and scored 6 again only six weeks later, which was only three days after Cy Denneny scored 6. The raw record of 7 is somewhat meaningless as a result. 892 has a similar quality, being heavily reliant on playing during an era of 8-6 scoreboards.

There's no way Ovechkin will ever be the same level of star or overall player as Gretzky. But as rational-thinking people, we can look at the circumstances of his 724 against Gretzky's 892 -- what those numbers actually signify -- and make a reasonable conclusion that the 724 is actually the more impressive historical feat. And we can hope that Ovechkin hangs around to set the raw record, Marleau'ing it if necessary, so we don't have to have this conversation for generations to come.

Extremely well said. Fantastic post all around.
 

MacMacandBarbie

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Dec 9, 2019
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I have to explain who Wayne Gretzky is to people regularly. I want to agree with you because I optimistically throw it out there a lot but I'm learning to accept that it's 2021 and people aren't going out of their way to learn about hockey history. It was that big when it was happening, sure, but right now you're honestly about as likely to get people to know either just since one is at least actively on television.

If ESPN treats Ovechkin chasing Gretzky like the Bonds HR chase and give it the same SportsCenter time and history lessons, that could do a lot, but it won't be until it gets closer.

Wow, is this serious? This is honestly hard to believe.
 

Fantomas

Registered User
Aug 7, 2012
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Gretzky is pretty clearly the greatest playmaker, biggest superstar, and maybe the best overall hockey player in history. That's pretty close to being beyond dispute, though some would say Howe and Orr have claim to being best-overall.

What is in dispute is Gretzky's claim to being the top goal scorer -- and that isn't really a new argument. Even during his prime, a lot of people felt Mike Bossy or Mario Lemieux was the better pure scorer. Across the course of a full career, both Howe and Jagr accumulated larger totals if we give them some margin for factors beyond their control (schedule length, leaguewide scoring rates).

Gretzky simply has the raw figure that nobody has beaten, 892. It's a bit like Joe Malone holding the single-game goal scoring record for over 100 years. It would take a freak event for anyone to ever score 7 goals in a game again, but it wasn't a freak event when it happened... Malone scored 7 only three weeks after Newsy Lalonde scored 6, and then Malone came back and scored 6 again only six weeks later, which was only three days after Cy Denneny scored 6. The raw record of 7 is somewhat meaningless as a result. 892 has a similar quality, being heavily reliant on playing during an era of 8-6 scoreboards.

There's no way Ovechkin will ever be the same level of star or overall player as Gretzky. But as rational-thinking people, we can look at the circumstances of his 724 against Gretzky's 892 -- what those numbers actually signify -- and make a reasonable conclusion that the 724 is actually the more impressive historical feat. And we can hope that Ovechkin hangs around to set the raw record, Marleau'ing it if necessary, so we don't have to have this conversation for generations to come.

Howe's scoring total is also more impressive than Gretzky's, considering the circumstances.
 

Sinistril

Registered User
Oct 26, 2008
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Wow, is this serious? This is honestly hard to believe.
There are places where you have to explain what ice hockey is to people, so he might live in one of those places. Otherwise, I do not believe even a passive fan doesn't know who Gretzky is. Hell, I have never watched a soccer game or football game in my life and know the all time greats in those sports.
 
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MacMacandBarbie

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Dec 9, 2019
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Howe scored over 800 goals
- in a low scoring context
- in shorter seasons
- despite playing in the WHA for years

I don't like to shit on an era from the past and compare it to another era, but you have to consider the fact that most of the good athletes and the "farm" that teams would normally have wasn't there due to the world war.
 

MacMacandBarbie

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Dec 9, 2019
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Gordie Howe played his first season one year after world war 2. How many quality hockey players during that time period would have went to the show but went off to war instead? How did this affect 2nd and 3rd line players, etc?
 
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