News Article: What happened?

[CH25]

He's right that these are legitimate, nagging problems with the coach.

He's wrong that these issues are what led to the historic collapse.

I disagree. This collapse wouldn't have happened with a competent coaching staff.

 

[Bourne Endeavor]

I agree with his criticisms, but he draws a straight line between those criticisms and the collapse, which is wrong.

You can dump all over Therrien for driving in 3rd gear on the highway, but that's a different issue than the tire blow out that left the team waiting for a tow truck.

We have disagreed on this before, however I maintain even if we had Holtby, we would be struggling to win games. Would we be in this monumental a freefall? No. But we wouldn't be good either. Therrien's system is so utterly reliant on Carey Price, you're essentially demanding any goalie who replaces him to replicate his performance. Regardless, we're little more than a pretender with Price.

 

[Mathletic]

The point was not the quantity but the actual use of those players. Don't tell me you're ok with how the habs have been handling both Galchenyuk and Beaulieu ?

yes, quantity is a big part of his point:

Ever since the 2005 NHL lockout, the trend around the league has been towards youth and taking advantage of players on entry-level contract to provide scoring depth.

Like I said in the other thread. What's the problem with Beaulieu's use? Compare his use and his progress to other dmen drafted in his draft class (or previous as he was a late b-day draft pick). How's that so bad compared to players who were judged of similar value?

Because we've done nothing to develop the prospects we have. Every team you listed either has acquired, drafted or developed their kids while we simply stagnate with washed up veterans in lofty roles. When Pavelski continued to progress, San Jose ultimately bent over backwards to properly accommodate his growth. They recognized Thornton is in the twilight of his career and moved on. Conversely, we are still playing Desharnais on the first line despite it being an objective fact he's inferior to both Plekanec and Galchenyuk. Furthermore, we may well have ruined the latter's development by forcing him onto the wing for the majority of his NHL career.

The Canucks-- notoriously against playing young kids-- iced a roster with more players under 22 than they have in almost two decades. They, too, recognized the necessity in development and have since began focusing on a dedicated youth movement. Meanwhile, we, yet again, rotate Weise onto the top line in lieu of Andrighetto. A few seasons back, Therrien played Murray and Bouillon with Subban. That is utterly absurd.

Tampa? Really? Are you just willfully neglecting almost every important piece of their roster is under 30?

well ok, if being under 30 is your threshold for being young then the Habs rely on youngsters too. Subban, Max, Price and so on are all under 30 too. Who am I missing on Tampa who's under 24 and be an important part of their team outside of Kucherov and Namestnikov?

 

[Lshap]

Therrien's coaching has most certainly exacerbated the length and depth of the collapse, thus there is most certainly a straight line between the two.

I agree Therrien defaulting back to his chronic mistakes made things worse. But IMO the catalyst for this crapshow was league-worst goaltending. Not just the absence of Price, but the absence of NHL-ready goalies whose historically bad performances were directly responsible for historically bad results. The SV%, the High-Danger SV%, the awful rebounds, the lack of puck handling... wow.

That said, the last month the whole team has played like crap. Hard to say if they've turned on Therrien, on each other, or simply no longer give a damn. But when a team stops executing even basic fundamentals, the coach usually has to go.

 

[Winter Eclipse]

yes, quantity is a big part of his point:
well ok, if being under 30 is your threshold for being young then the Habs rely on youngsters too. Subban, Max, Price and so on are all under 30 too. Who am I missing on Tampa who's under 24 and be an important part of their team outside of Kucherov and Namestnikov?

Again, what criteria did you use to determine who qualifies as an "important part" of a team when you compiled your original list?

 

[Bourne Endeavor]

I disagree. This collapse wouldn't have happened with a competent coaching staff.

Case in point, Carolina is a worse team by a country mile, yet they are significantly better. Why? Competent coaching.

 

[Winter Eclipse]

I agree Therrien defaulting back to his chronic mistakes made things worse. But IMO the catalyst for this crapshow was league-worst goaltending. Not just the absence of Price, but the absence of NHL-ready goalies whose historically bad performances were directly responsible for historically bad results. The SV%, the High-Danger SV%, the awful rebounds, the lack of puck handling... wow.

That said, the last month the whole team has played like crap. Hard to say if they've turned on Therrien, on each other, or simply no longer give a damn. But when a team stops executing even basic fundamentals, the coach usually has to go.

The bolded is my point. Regardless of the magnitude of the direct connection between the collapse and Therrien, the fact is that a direct connection does indeed exist.

 

[jfm133]

I disagree. This collapse wouldn't have happened with a competent coaching staff.

You can only collapse with a Condon at 0.875 since Price reinjury.

 

[Mad Brills*]

Didn't he abandon a new system 10 games in?

 

[CH25]

yes, quantity is a big part of his point:

Ever since the 2005 NHL lockout, the trend around the league has been towards youth and taking advantage of players on entry-level contract to provide scoring depth.

Like I said in the other thread. What's the problem with Beaulieu's use? Compare his use and his progress to other dmen drafted in his draft class (or previous as he was a late b-day draft pick). How's that so bad compared to players who were judged of similar value?

I'm not that big into advanced stats as I prefer to put more weight in the eye test. In Beaulieu's case both the eye test and the advanced stats show a clear wrongdoing in his usage. Wasn't the graph presented in the article not clear enough ?

 

[Winter Eclipse]

You can only collapse with a Condon at 0.875 since Price reinjury.

Condon's been at 0.875 for December, January, and February, has he?

 

[Lshap]

We have disagreed on this before, however I maintain even if we had Holtby, we would be struggling to win games. Would we be in this monumental a freefall? No. But we wouldn't be good either. Therrien's system is so utterly reliant on Carey Price, you're essentially demanding any goalie who replaces him to replicate his performance. Regardless, we're little more than a pretender with Price.

This is from WarOnIce. It's the goalies SV% from High-Danger areas. This is where most goals are scored, and what separates great from good from bad goaltending. As you can see, Montreal has spent 90% of the season handicapped by possibly the worst goalie combo in its history. The stats are from December until now (when the collapse began):

Now obviously some of these high-danger chances happened because our D screwed up. But every team gives up high-danger chances. If dmen didn't screw up, every game in the league would be decided by a score of 1-0. The difference is that every other team's goalies have been able to compensate for their dmen's mistakes much better, and make saves that OUR goalies consistently let into the net.

 

[Habsawce]

Pretty good read. He's not wrong.

Didn't say he was wrong, was just surprised. If you've ever followed him on twitter it's embarrassing. I've had to unfollow him and I'm a pretty big homer for the Habs.

 

[Mathletic]

I'm not that big into advanced stats as I prefer to put more weight in the eye test. In Beaulieu's case both the eye test and the advanced stats show a clear wrongdoing in his usage. Wasn't the graph presented in the article not clear enough ?

the stats he points out are completely ridiculous. He only points out offensive stats. It's quite obvious that Beaulieu will get better numbers in those areas. What you want to look at bare minimum are the CORSI% not simply the CORSI for stats. Not to mention that he doesn't even mention quality of competition and zone starts. Something people always talk about when they refer to "advanced" stats.

 

[Lshap]

Condon's been at 0.875 for December, January, and February, has he?

Not quite. Condon's SV% in December alone was about .875, but is around .890 for the combined three months.

 

[Winter Eclipse]

The difference is that every other team's goalies have been able to compensate for their dmen's mistakes much better, and make saves that OUR goalies consistently let into the net.

That's not the only option though. Other team's forwards have been able to compensate for dmen and goalie mistakes much better by actually scoring goals.

And the "good goaltending gives the forwards more confidence" is a chicken-and-the-egg scenario, since one could easily argue that having anything more than a razor thin margin of error might help the goalies relax and play better.

Finally, the graph you posted doesn't indicate how many high-danger shots our tenders are facing per night...I'd wager it's quite a bit higher than others on that list.

 

[Rapala]

Didn't he abandon a new system 10 games in?

No he started making questionable moves against Washington.
We were playing a strong game in our most important match of the year
We put our fourth line our against Ovie late in the second they scored with less than a minute
left in the second and the team just sagged. We were never the same after that IMO.
Therrien started in with his fiddling in earnest not long after and we just caved in stages...

 

[CH25]

the stats he points out are completely ridiculous. He only points out offensive stats. It's quite obvious that Beaulieu will get better numbers in those areas. What you want to look at bare minimum are the CORSI% not simply the CORSI for stats. Not to mention that he doesn't even mention quality of competition and zone starts. Something people always talk about when they refer to "advanced" stats.

That's a good point. His benching is still completely unjustified though. Since Emelin and Beaulieu play two completely different styles he should have compared Beaulieu to Gilbert instead. I don't think there's any legitimate argument to justify playing Gilbert over Beaulieu. He's simply a more effective player. The team is currently dead in the water. Benching and limiting young players like Beaulieu and Galchenyuk just doesn't make sense going forward. Are they forgetting Gilbert is a UFA ?

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

I agree with his criticisms, but he draws a straight line between those criticisms and the collapse, which is wrong.

You can dump all over Therrien for driving in 3rd gear on the highway, but that's a different issue than the tire blow out that left the team waiting for a tow truck.

The margin between winning and losing can be very thin. How many more games do we win if he double shifts our best guys, plays Galchenyuk the right way, has a good PP?

I think we'd have struggled regardless but I don't think we go off the cliff the way we have if we had a coach who knew what he was doing. And the point that always gets overlooked is how poorly he's developed younger players. I look at Eller and I'll always wonder what kind of career he would've had and how much it hurt us...

 

[Mathletic]

and some other points

There’s a clip from the Canadiens’ self-produced behind the scenes television show “24CH” from two seasons ago where Therrien angrily tells his team that they’re being too fancy by trying to cycle the puck down low. He said they needed to go wide when breaking in off the rush, shoot from bad angles, and crash the net for rebounds. He finished by saying “We’re a grinding team, accept it”, which is an odd strategy to push on one of the NHL’s smallest rosters.

guess what, Phil Jackson said the exact same thing to his star filled Chicago Bulls in the 90's. That's just what coaches do.

...

s a result, they have trouble generating high danger scoring chances.

hm ok, let's look at war-on-ice for high danger scoring stats

http://war-on-ice.com/teamtable.html

hm ok, 12th overall in the league ahead of Washington, St. Louis, Rangers, Anaheim and so on.

...

Carey Price has papered over the faults in Therrien’s system for years, but without him in net, the problems are there for all to see.

yeah right, Canadiens are getting average goaltending to the rest of the league now. Great comparable.

 

[Lshap]

That's not the only option though. Other team's forwards have been able to compensate for dmen and goalie mistakes much better by actually scoring goals.

And the "good goaltending gives the forwards more confidence" is a chicken-and-the-egg scenario, since one could easily argue that having anything more than a razor thin margin of error might help the goalies relax and play better.

Finally, the graph you posted doesn't indicate how many high-danger shots our tenders are facing per night...I'd wager it's quite a bit higher than others on that list.

Habs high-danger chances AGAINST: 13th lowest (slightly better than mid-pack)

High-danger chances FOR: 10th most (better than I expected, tbh)

+/- high-danger differential: 9th best (again, better than expected)

http://war-on-ice.com/teamtable.html

(filters: Team Strengths: All / Columns to display: High-Danger Chances)

 

[Lshap]

The margin between winning and losing can be very thin. How many more games do we win if he double shifts our best guys, plays Galchenyuk the right way, has a good PP?

I think we'd have struggled regardless but I don't think we go off the cliff the way we have if we had a coach who knew what he was doing. And the point that always gets overlooked is how poorly he's developed younger players. I look at Eller and I'll always wonder what kind of career he would've had and how much it hurt us...

Sure, I agree it's hard to defend Therrien's anti-logic approach to lines and player usage. In general there's no question his stubbornness hurt us. But if we're talking just the last three months I'll politely say it's tougher to buy that something he's done for three years had such a sudden, dramatic, historic effect.

 

[Winter Eclipse]

guess what, Phil Jackson said the exact same thing to his star filled Chicago Bulls in the 90's. That's just what coaches do.

What's the actual quote? Where are you citing it from?

 

[Winter Eclipse]

Sure, I agree it's hard to defend Therrien's anti-logic approach to lines and player usage. In general there's no question his stubbornness hurt us. But if we're talking just the last three months I'll politely say it's tougher to buy that something he's done for three years had such a sudden, dramatic, historic effect.

That's not at all the argument, though.

 

[Winter Eclipse]

the stats he points out are completely ridiculous. He only points out offensive stats. It's quite obvious that Beaulieu will get better numbers in those areas. What you want to look at bare minimum are the CORSI% not simply the CORSI for stats. Not to mention that he doesn't even mention quality of competition and zone starts. Something people always talk about when they refer to "advanced" stats.

To be fair, those are two statistics you yourself argued against during the 2014-2015 season.