What are your expectations in the standings for the 2022/23 CBJ?

[CBJWerenski8]

We've reached the peak of summer threads. With the dust settling (probably) on player additions, the only thing left is to determine a few roster spots between young guys.

As the title says, what are your expectations for the team this year?

Also, what would be deemed a "successful" season in your minds?

I would say it was largely believed that last season was in general a successful one, given the expectations and youth of that roster. I don't think many people expected us to make the playoffs, and I think some people thought we'd be at the top of the lottery. We weren't (with our own pick at least), and a lot of young guys showed offensive growth.

Now with Gaudreau here and Laine locked in. Werenski and Elvis' big boy contracts are now kicking in, and a few prospects banging on the door trying to make the team. The expectations are raised although the youth remains.

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[CBJWerenski8]

For me, my expectations is to make a push for the playoffs. They don't have to make it, although it would be nice to see.

I want us to grow on the defensive side of the ice. I think this roster can score, up and down the lineup, they have youth, speed, and ability probably only rivaled by the 2019 post deadline CBJ team. Keeping the puck out of the net is the issue, and if they're able to do that and get Elvis to a 2.60 GAA or around there, they should be in business. But in order for that to happen, he has to be better himself, and the team needs to play better defense in front of him.

Can they stand up to physicality? Last year they buckled in those games. They need to grow some snarl and they need to dictate more physicality in order to grow in that aspect. Gudbranson and Olivier are a step in that direction, but two guys that low in the lineup won't change things themselves. It has to come from within and with growth.

Finally, can the special teams improve? 24th on the PP and 20th on the PK won't get it done. Having a bad PP is kind of a staple of the CBJ for years now, but the PK has been able to mitigate damage the other way. Last year, the PK was as bad as the PP and it hurt the Jackets. If we want to cut into the 19 point gap to get from a middling team to a playoff team, both areas need to improve. Would have to think Gaudreau helps a lot, but one guy isn't superman. If we can get our PP to around 15, and get our PK in the top 10, we should be in good shape.

 

[majormajor]

I'd say middle of the pack and in reach of the playoffs for most of the year. I'd guess around 85-94 points, but the playoff bar in the East is probably going to be about 100 points, so we shouldn't be very close.

Finally, can the special teams improve? 24th on the PP and 20th on the PK won't get it done. Having a bad PP is kind of a staple of the CBJ for years now, but the PK has been able to mitigate damage the other way. Last year, the PK was as bad as the PP and it hurt the Jackets. If we want to cut into the 19 point gap to get from a middling team to a playoff team, both areas need to improve. Would have to think Gaudreau helps a lot, but one guy isn't superman. If we can get our PP to around 15, and get our PK in the top 10, we should be in good shape.

I'll be disappointed if we can't get our PP up to the top 10-12. We have too much weaponry to accept anything less.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

I'll be disappointed if we can't get our PP up to the top 10-12. We have too much weaponry to accept anything less.

We’ve had a lot of talent over the last 5-6 years and outside of the streak year our PP has been middling at best.

 

[stevo61]

We’ve had a lot of talent over the last 5-6 years and outside of the streak year our PP has been middling at best.

We also had a coach who believed playing on the PP was a privilege you earn vs putting the players with the best PP skills on the ice

 

[CBJWerenski8]

We also had a coach who believed playing on the PP was a privilege you earn vs putting the players with the best PP skills on the ice

He might have said that, but that’s not how he actually coached. How many times did you see Panarin, Duchene, Werenski, Jones, etc on the bench for the PP? Not many. The only exceptions were Laine and dubois, who both got benched prior to PPs. I don’t recall seeing third or fourth line “heart” players on the PP.

 

[majormajor]

We also had a coach who believed playing on the PP was a privilege you earn vs putting the players with the best PP skills on the ice

He might have said that, but that’s not how he actually coached. How many times did you see Panarin, Duchene, Werenski, Jones, etc on the bench for the PP? Not many. The only exceptions were Laine and dubois, who both got benched prior to PPs. I don’t recall seeing third or fourth line “heart” players on the PP.

As I recall, the issue wasn't putting totally unqualified guys on the PP, it was just the amount of turnover on the two units. Torts was shuffling guys back and forth every few games.

In any case we've never had anything like Gaudreau + Laine at the same time.

 

[CBJx614]

Voted nearly miss, but could see the team squeaking in. There's just so many unknowns variables.

The obvious, how well do Laine and Gaudreau mesh?

Does Silly slump or take the next step?

Does KJ get a chance to make the main roster? If so how big of an impact does he make? Center or wing?

Same could be said of Bemstrom, Marchenko, Foudy and Chinakov.

How far along is the D from last season? Mainly Boqvist, Peeke and Bean.

Which Gudbranson do we see?

If the D is improved, how well does Elvis perform? Or does he get shell shocked again?

 

[Sdrawkcab321]

Barely get in. First round exit. Unless we get a big surprise from Kent Johnson or sillinger I don’t see how we get past anyone.

 

[EspenK]

I see 8 teams I expect to finish behind the Jackets.

I think Buffalo, Ottawa & Detroit could finish ahead of the CBJ.

My most likely outcome is another 12th place finish.

I don't see a playoff push but if everything clicks and another team (Vancouver, LA, Boston,)has an off year we could be close.

Vegas is another team that could really struggle .

CBJ could struggle if Elvis is injured or has a bad year.

Youth, especially on D, and the overall defensive weakness will be what prevents a serious playoff push.

 

[koteka]

My guess is we draft 9-14. We might be “in the hunt” for a wildcard spot for much of the season, but not really likely to get in the playoffs, and then we could trade a guy or two at the deadline and play more youth down the stretch to fall back a little.

 

[NotTooWideArena]

I suspect Merzlikins will rediscover his form, and Gudbranson will help stabilize the young defense. I think the offense is clearly improved and could be dramatically so if Johnson can play effectively for most of the season.

A lot depends on how well the youngsters develop (coaching staff - we're looking at YOU!).

I won't be stunned if they miss the playoffs. I might be stunned if they made much of run. Unless there's huge regression or a major personnel blow-up (a la PLD), it should be a fun season.

 

[Jovavic]

I'm thinking around 90 points if the defense is like last year, playoffs if they get the GAA down a little bit.

 

[5th Line Fanatic]

I voted "narrowly miss". If things go reasonably well I think we could be looking at 90-95 points, which would be about a 10-15% improvement. Is 95 points enough to get in? It wouldn't have been enough last year.

Most of the season results, like all seasons, will depend on health. If we get better than average luck with injuries, I could see us sneaking in. If we get worse than average luck, I could see us middle of the pack. Last year we were about middle of the road on Man Games Lost.

The biggest question in my opinion is Elvis. Does being a year removed from the Kivi tragedy help him bounce back? Let's hope so because we can't afford to pay $5m/per for a backup.

I'm most interested in watching the kids, power play, and the defense develop. If at the end of the season we can look back on those three things and say they improved, then this will be a successful season in my opinion.

 

[tunnelvision]

Deep run 1%
Playoffs 20%
Narrow miss 30%
Middle of the pack 40%
Bottom-10 finish 9%

I'd give those probabilities for each outcome. With a top-4 D we never acquired I would be more optimistic of playoff chances. I have faith in Z, Gavy and Blanks if they all stay healthy but then there are guys known for having glaring weaknesses that cause me a lot of doubt. I don't know if Gud and Peeke can move the puck well enough with the minutes they're probably going to get. Are Bo and Bean going to be any stronger and competitive this year? Not to mention the goalies and forwards who need to step up defensively as well.

 

[JacketFanInFL]

Worst defense in the league last year was barely addressed. Won't have any issues scoring, but I see a lot of odd man rush goals against, again. Going to be a finesse team that gets pushed around, that is reliant on a counter-attack.

I'm not all-that-convinced on this staff's ability to develop, as well. This season hinges on the development of a lot of players.

 

[LJ7]

I voted narrowly miss. Our offense was only 14th best last season. Sounds wild but it has a fair bit of room to improve and is slated to do so. The defense won't be that much better but adding Gaudreau and an extra year of development and system familiarity from everyone should help win the possession war more often which would lower GA. If Johnson is ready and will be good then Gaudreau, Voracek and Johnson all spread through the lineup on 3 different lines could be a lot for other teams to handle, or could stack up a true "top 6" with Laine thrown in.

The powerplay has to be good though. With this type of team they need to be able to make teams pay for committing penalties. We could see the old high level powerplay serving as an "enforcer" trope if the PP is actually high level. If we get a top 8ish powerplay I could very reasonably see a push for a playoff spot. There will be nights where the opponent just can't keep up the scoring pace. I truly believe that you can outscore your problems in the regular season.

All of that said many east teams improved on paper and few got worse. Florida got worse, and there's arguments for literally every other east team that they at least stayed just about the same or improved.

 

[MissADD]

I think they make a push for the playoffs, but narrowly miss them in the end. I'd rather finish middle of the back this year, but higher up in the back just because I think Nyquist is a guy they could trade and get something decent for him at the deadline, but if they are in the playoff hunt, he doesn't get dealt. I think they goal for this year is just to take the next step forward, mainly on defense, If they happens, then they should prob be in the playoff hunt, but that isn't a given because of other factors they can't control

 

[LJ7]

I think they make a push for the playoffs, but narrowly miss them in the end. I'd rather finish middle of the back this year, but higher up in the back just because I think Nyquist is a guy they could trade and get something decent for him at the deadline, but if they are in the playoff hunt, he doesn't get dealt. I think they goal for this year is just to take the next step forward, mainly on defense, If they happens, then they should prob be in the playoff hunt, but that isn't a given because of other factors they can't control

I don't think the return for Nyquist would be enough for me to want that outcome. I want the team to win as many games as possible and I'm not afraid of it being "too early" in the long term process.

 

[Jovavic]

Depending on alot of things, but maybe if the defense shows in the first month that it isn't up to snuff that Jarmo ends up moving Nyquist with a Bean/Boqvist to upgrade the top 4. Of course, this is dependant on the young forwards forcing their hands and making Nyquist redundant.

I also think both wild cards will be from the Atlantic so we'd need to finish third in the Metro to get in, which seems unlikely.

 

[GoJackets1]

Firmly a bubble team. But on the uptrend.

As with all bubble teams, they could make it if injury/puck luck is there, and miss it if not.

 

[LoneFunyan]

For me, it comes down to two things:
1. Lots of uncertainty and "needs improvement" in our line up. About half of our offense, 2/3 of our defense and 100% of our goaltending fall into the "what kind of player is this guy for real" and/or "he needs to show us that he can sustain that". That doesn't feel like the equation for a playoff contender to me.
2. Who do we beat into the playoffs? We're competing for 1 of no more than 3 actual available spots against something like 8 teams.

I think that's too many unknowns in an environment that is going to be very fraught right from the get go.

Improvement will have to happen in real time on the ice and our early season schedule looks pretty rough. We could be 3-9 by Nov 5 and at that point, the hole could already be too deep.

 

[DoingItCoolKiwi]

Middle of the standing or narrowly missing playoffs depending on the goaltending. 2024 is the playoff year, I think

 

[Tecmo]

I decided to vote for "just miss the playoffs" based on the team's lack of depth. Johnny Hockey, Laine, and young talent leaves me excited for this team but give it a couple of seasons before the big payoff happens.

 

[Xoggz22]

I voted playoff/exit. I think they are right on the edge so I won't be completely disappointed if they narrowly miss but I think there are only 2 teams in the Metro that I, personally, would guarantee a spot in the playoffs - Carolina and the NY Rangers. I think the remaining teams all have question marks and that's why I thinking playoffs.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying PIT and WSH are going to suck but there is as good a chance as ever that they will actually take a step backwards, especially with any injuries to their high end players. I think CBJ finishes somewhere between 3 and 6 in the Metro. Going to score a lot of goals and I'm hoping that Elvis' last 13 games (where they ran him out pretty much every game to end the year) is more what we can expect (2.55 GAA and 92.6 SV%). That alone would result in a reduction of ~32 goals from Elvis over his ~60 games. Not insignificant. while 0.926 may be asking for too much, somewhere north of 0.915 should be expected. If the team defense knocks down the shots against, that will also help.

anyway, I'm optimistic of a step forward and still scoring a LOT of goals even with no Bjorkstrand. We'll see but I stick with my playoff vote.