What are the odds that McDavid becomes a member of the Big 5?

[Boxscore]

In order for McDavid to be considered the 5th greatest player in NHL history, he'd need to stay healthy and win at least 2 Cups (with the Connies) while bagging about 4 more Harts and 7 more Art Rosses.

 

[bobholly39]

oof zero pts through two games. en route to a kucherov-esque humiliation?

not that it hurt kuch too much in the long run. kid will have his day too i’m sure

By Kucherov's 2019 playoff run - he had had 3 extremely solid playoff runs already (2015, 2016, 2018) - 4, 3 and 3 round efforts. And he bounced back following year in 2020, obviously with cup/leading in playoff points.

McDavid already had his 'team disappointment' last year when they lost to the 23rd best team in Chicago in 4 games. Granted McDavid himself did good - but it was still a very disappointing loss.

So if he doesn't get going these playoffs and they're out in round 1 - he'll be in a way worst position than Kucherov was after 2019. Not a good look so far. Still - 2 games only, still enough time to turn it around

 

[Big Phil]

He's got to have playoff success. It is crucial. It is early, but being blanked by the Winnipeg Jets in the first two games doesn't look good. Granted he can turn it on a dime, but there isn't a player in the top 10 in history (or more) who have poor resumes in the playoffs.

 

[VanIslander]

Bourque was a 15-time Norris trophy finalist (let that sink in - he played against incredible competition);

Hasek was a 6-time Vezina, 2-time Hart and epic World Cup MVP.

Everything McDavid has done puts him in a lower tier, at best marginal top-10 all time, certainly in the conversation for top 15.

I know some think him better than Jagr, Crosby and Richard. I don't. The thing is: NONE of those are top-5 all time, hence the absurdity/fandom of this thread.

 

[sr edler]

oof zero pts through two games.

vadim, doesn't this scenario kinda remind us of the 1992–93 Winnipeg Jets?

Selänne, as we know, went on a crazy goal scoring/point scoring spree down the regular season stretch that year, and ended up with an iconic regular season, registering at least a point in all of his last 17 games, chasing the ghost of Mogilny. He had 34 points in those last 17 games, a 2 point per game average.

In the following playoffs though, 1st round against Vancouver, Selänne was held off the scoresheet in 3 out of 6 games. He did have a hattrick in one of the games though, which made his stats (6 points in 6 games, still way below his regular season output, but not bad for the playoffs) look respectable, but for much of that series he was a relative non-factor, and a big physical Vancouver team won 4 games to 2.

In 7 games against Vancouver during the 1992–93 regular season Selänne had had 4 points (and a –8 rating), so the writing was already kinda on the wall there, right? Before even going into said playoffs. In the regular season Selänne had straight out dummied teams like San Jose, Edmonton and Minnesota.

McDavid this past season had a stretch against Toronto where he went without a point for three straight games. Against Toronto overall he had 10 points in 9 games, which is very good, but hardly close to his overall output.

Similarly Montreal, during the first half of the 2020–21 season, had the Oils number, with just 2 points in 5 games for McDavid. Then down the stretch, with McDavid on his Selänne tear, facing Montreal with Jake Allen & Cayden Primeau standing in and guarding the nets instead of Carey Price, McDavid did dummy also the Canadiens, the same way he consistently had dummied Ottawa, Vancouver and Calgary.

I wouldn't be surprised if McDavid, in one of these upcoming playoff games against the Winnipeg Jets, scores a hattrick much like 1992–93 Selänne. But I also wouldn't be surprised if his team eventually gets bounced, much like the 92–93 Winnipeg Jets.

 

[ozzie]

This day an age, I think even 1 Cup would go a long way. Especially if he continues to build on is regular season accolades. Those points and awards will be indisputable. At this point in time, he could enter the top 10 easily, even if he ends up a bit like Marcel Dionne or Dan Marino, at least Marino got to a Superbowl (if i recall). Not sure just making the cup finals will be enough to edge him into the top 5.

Unfortunately the top 5, requires championships, at least based on the current top 4 or 5 players. They all have multiple cups. I don't even think Olympic gold, Canada/World cup of hockey or World championships will get him there.

1 Cup or bust, it was enough to justify Ovechkin's career. Skill, talent and points, he probably could be the second or third highest when all is said and done.

 

[JackSlater]

How McDavid plays in the playoffs is more important, but it will always be held against him if he never wins a Stanley Cup. Given how Edmonton has run its franchise before and after his arrival I can't blame him really, but you never know how things will look in a few years. Eventually one of the very best players ever is going to come along and never win a Stanley Cup. Bourque avoided it, Ovechkin avoided it, McDavid has likely over a decade to avoid it.

 

[K Fleur]

Bourque was a 15-time Norris trophy finalist (let that sink in - he played against incredible competition);

Hasek was a 6-time Vezina, 2-time Hart and epic World Cup MVP.

Everything McDavid has done puts him in a lower tier, at best marginal top-10 all time, certainly in the conversation for top 15.

I know some think him better than Jagr, Crosby and Richard. I don't. The thing is: NONE of those are top-5 all time, hence the absurdity/fandom of this thread.

Not one of these players had a trophy case as impressive as McDavid’s at age 24.

That you yourself are already willing to already put McDavid in the conversation for top 15 all time(6 seasons into his career) but at the same time find this thread premise absurd is quite strange.

 

[vadim sharifijanov]

vadim, doesn't this scenario kinda remind us of the 1992–93 Winnipeg Jets?

Selänne, as we know, went on a crazy goal scoring/point scoring spree down the regular season stretch that year, and ended up with an iconic regular season, registering at least a point in all of his last 17 games, chasing the ghost of Mogilny. He had 34 points in those last 17 games, a 2 point per game average.

In the following playoffs though, 1st round against Vancouver, Selänne was held off the scoresheet in 3 out of 6 games. He did have a hattrick in one of the games though, which made his stats (6 points in 6 games, still way below his regular season output, but not bad for the playoffs) look respectable, but for much of that series he was a relative non-factor, and a big physical Vancouver team won 4 games to 2.

In 7 games against Vancouver during the 1992–93 regular season Selänne had had 4 points (and a –8 rating), so the writing was already kinda on the wall there, right? Before even going into said playoffs. In the regular season Selänne had straight out dummied teams like San Jose, Edmonton and Minnesota.

McDavid this past season had a stretch against Toronto where he went without a point for three straight games. Against Toronto overall he had 10 points in 9 games, which is very good, but hardly close to his overall output.

Similarly Montreal, during the first half of the 2020–21 season, had the Oils number, with just 2 points in 5 games for McDavid. Then down the stretch, with McDavid on his Selänne tear, facing Montreal with Jake Allen & Cayden Primeau standing in and guarding the nets instead of Carey Price, McDavid did dummy also the Canadiens, the same way he consistently had dummied Ottawa, Vancouver and Calgary.

I wouldn't be surprised if McDavid, in one of these upcoming playoff games against the Winnipeg Jets, scores a hattrick much like 1992–93 Selänne. But I also wouldn't be surprised if his team eventually gets bounced, much like the 92–93 Winnipeg Jets.

the analogy, i feel that. winnipeg as a bigger, more experienced, deeper team like the 93 canucks, absolutely.

but rookie selanne in the same sentence as current mcdavid, that’s... very flattering to selanne

 

[sr edler]

but rookie selanne in the same sentence as current mcdavid, that’s... very flattering to selanne

They are similar stylistically though. Young Selänne (who was still 22–23 as a rookie, so similar age to McD now) could really fly. He was not called the Finnish Flash for nothing. And, he was a bit of an opportunistic player too, Jets version Selänne, who would often play a run and gun-ish north–south type of game. I haven't case studied McDavid this season, but I was just over at the main board, and someone there claimed/pointed out he's most often the first Oil forward blowing out of the d-zone, as a C, which makes me see potato-filmed flashbacks from the 90s in my head of Selänne (McDavid) and Zhamnov (Draisaitl) doing the same thing.

 

[vadim sharifijanov]

They are similar stylistically though. Young Selänne (who was still 22–23 as a rookie, so similar age to McD now) could really fly. He was not called the Finnish Flash for nothing. And, he was a bit of an opportunistic player too, Jets version Selänne, who would often play a run and gun-ish north–south type of game. I haven't case studied McDavid this season, but I was just over at the main board, and someone there claimed/pointed out he's most often the first Oil forward blowing out of the d-zone, as a C, which makes me see potato-filmed flashbacks from the 90s in my head of Selänne (McDavid) and Zhamnov (Draisaitl) doing the same thing.

my feel, mostly from watching him destroy the canucks thisbyear, is he is so much more than waiting for housley outlets and exploding down the wing. the stats seem to back that up, with him having more assists than any non-linemate has pts.

i just looked it up, selanne had just turned 22 when his rookie year started (july birthday). mcdavid turned 24 on his first game of the season (jan birthday). i thought it was closer too, but then there’s also the weirdness of the COVID schedule.

anyway i feel you. i just think mcdavid just put up a very very special year, eclipsing those end to end hart/ross years we recently saw from kane, kuch, even malkin.

that said, i also spent the week watching the nba play in instead of the playoffs so i haven’t actually seen a minute of that series yet.

 

[Troubadour]

Is the gap between regular season and playoff hockey intensity bigger now than in the DPE?

 

[VanIslander]

Not one of these players had a trophy case as impressive as McDavid’s at age 24.

At age 24?

Robitaille was a 5-time all star by age 24, then petered down.

Johnny Bower was five times top 5 in wins (4-time Stanley Cip champion) beginning at age 36/37.

Age means squat.

Projections? Project **** , like a monkey in a zoo, flinging dung, angry at being encaged.

 

[wetcoast]

In order for McDavid to be considered the 5th greatest player in NHL history, he'd need to stay healthy and win at least 2 Cups (with the Connies) while bagging about 4 more Harts and 7 more Art Rosses.

So numerically he would need way more (relatively speaking) Harts and Art Ross trophies than Mario to make it a big 5?

Heck even Mr Hockey only has 6 Art Ross trophies and that was in a 6 team league.

I really wonder at times if people are even aware of the facts (of the other big 4) before they shoot off numbers like above?

To be fair that's part of the mythical status of the Big 4 though in that the story becomes even greater than the actual facts of each of the 4 players.

That's why guys like McDavid and Crosby have to compete with the story and not just the facts of the other 4 guys in the Big 4.

 

[Pominville Knows]

So numerically he would need way more (relatively speaking) Harts and Art Ross trophies than Mario to make it a big 5?

Heck even Mr Hockey only has 6 Art Ross trophies and that was in a 6 team league.

I really wonder at times if people are even aware of the facts (of the other big 4) before they shoot off numbers like above?

To be fair that's part of the mythical status of the Big 4 though in that the story becomes even greater than the actual facts of each of the 4 players.

That's why guys like McDavid and Crosby have to compete with the story and not just the facts of the other 4 guys in the Big 4.

Why bring up Crosby for? He's failed to join them by now.
But yeah, McDavid. I guess it all depends in how dominant of a scoring race winner he'll be in the future. But against Lemieux through; question is just how dominant it would take.
The thing with 66 is that he's in the Big 4 due to peak and not consistency.

 

[wetcoast]

He's got to have playoff success. It is crucial. It is early, but being blanked by the Winnipeg Jets in the first two games doesn't look good. Granted he can turn it on a dime, but there isn't a player in the top 10 in history (or more) who have poor resumes in the playoffs.

People are also forgetting that McDavid is also only 24 years old and his team is only in the playoffs for the 3rd time here.

His resume, given his age and supporting cast is hardly even poor at this point and no doubt it will get much better.

McDavid might have a big donut through 2 games this year but the eye test and advanced stats both show us that it's a circumstance of small sample and luck going on here as well.

 

[wetcoast]

Why bring up Crosby for? He's failed to join them by now.
But yeah, McDavid. I guess it all depends in how dominant of a scoring race winner he'll be in the future. But against Lemieux through; question is just how dominant it would take.
The thing with 66 is that he's in the Big 4 due to peak and not consistency.

I bring up Crosby because he still has a career that might end up looking better than Mario's when it's all said and done.

 

[wetcoast]

At age 24?

Robitaille was a 5-time all star by age 24, then petered down.

Johnny Bower was five times top 5 in wins (4-time Stanley Cip champion) beginning at age 36/37.

Age means squat.

Projections? Project **** , like a monkey in a zoo, flinging dung, angry at being encaged.

Do you mean Luc Robitaille who was NEVER is the conversation of top 10 player in the world at any point in his career?

I always have a hard time judging goalies by why in the world would you bring up Johnny Bower?

Part of the Big 4 is the impact they had from day 1 in the NHL at a very young age (Howe being the slight exception)

 

[Dingo]

How McDavid plays in the playoffs is more important, but it will always be held against him if he never wins a Stanley Cup. Given how Edmonton has run its franchise before and after his arrival I can't blame him really, but you never know how things will look in a few years. Eventually one of the very best players ever is going to come along and never win a Stanley Cup. Bourque avoided it, Ovechkin avoided it, McDavid has likely over a decade to avoid it.

ya. personally, i will never hold team failure over a player. most will, though. SO far, McD has not been a good playoff producer himself. that i will hold against him.

 

[Czech Your Math]

Is the gap between regular season and playoff hockey intensity bigger now than in the DPE?

I'm not sure, but I think DPE regular season hockey was much more similar to playoff hockey in terms of obstruction, swallowing the whistle (not that there were far fewer penalties called, but they let a ton of stuff go uncalled), etc.

 

[JackSlater]

ya. personally, i will never hold team failure over a player. most will, though. SO far, McD has not been a good playoff producer himself. that i will hold against him.

That's pretty reasonable. He has to be accountable for his own play.

 

[authentic]

Is the gap between regular season and playoff hockey intensity bigger now than in the DPE?

It definitely feels that way. Hockey today is pretty tame physically compared to back then in the regular season, but the playoffs today almost seem like a different league from the regular season entirely, especially with no 3 on 3 OT.

 

[Dingo]

I'm not sure, but I think DPE regular season hockey was much more similar to playoff hockey in terms of obstruction, swallowing the whistle (not that there were far fewer penalties called, but they let a ton of stuff go uncalled), etc.

id be interested in a year by year ratio of playoff scoring:reg season scoring.

my guess would be the DPE shows the least difference

 

[Professor What]

Bourque was a 15-time Norris trophy finalist (let that sink in - he played against incredible competition);

Hasek was a 6-time Vezina, 2-time Hart and epic World Cup MVP.

Everything McDavid has done puts him in a lower tier, at best marginal top-10 all time, certainly in the conversation for top 15.

I know some think him better than Jagr, Crosby and Richard. I don't. The thing is: NONE of those are top-5 all time, hence the absurdity/fandom of this thread.

Whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa. Twisting my intentions much?

Not once did I even vaguely suggest that McDavid is top five, top ten, or top fifteen. He's not within miles of any of that right now. He has a long way to go to catch any of the guys you mentioned, and I've never remotely suggested otherwise. The whole point of the thread was asking if people thought he could get there and what they thought his chances were. So to say that the thread is fandom is ridiculous. I asked a question and nothing more.

If you don't think he's going to get there and you think he doesn't have a chance, that's fine. Tell us why. That's the whole point of the thread. But don't dance all around the original post and everything I've said and pretend that I've said something I didn't.

 

[VanIslander]

Many think McDavid is the next Crosby....

You now indicate you don't. K.