What are the odds that McDavid becomes a member of the Big 5?

[The Panther]

Of course, the sad truth is, outside of those years where he was as good as anybody not named Bobby Orr, he's been just good.

See, I'd say that's taking it too far. He was great, sure, full marks. But he was never that good.

 

[wetcoast]

It's not particularly small right now

McDavid
Hart: 1, 1, 3, 5, 5
Points: 1, 1, 1, 2, 2
AS: 1, 1, 1, 1, 3, 13

Crosby
Hart: 1, 3, 6
Points: 1, 2, 3, 6
AS: 1, 2, 3, 3, 5, 5

That's through 6 years, sure Crosby has had some injuries but McDavid is comfortably ahead

The Olympics can't do anything for Crosby to help against McDavid. McDavid should've gotten his chance in 2018 but greed ruined that

And the playoff edge can't be hung on McDavid, outside of 2017 & 2020 where we made the playoffs there was almost nothing more he could possibly do, he's playing 23 minutes a game and without him, on the ice we're dead in the water.

All of this is true but if both players had for whatever reason both stopped playing at this comparable point in their careers which one would you take in all time draft?

I think a lot of people here and heck in sports overall place a premium on winning, rightly or wrongly.

 

[Professor What]

See, I'd say that's taking it too far. He was great, sure, full marks. But he was never that good.

I hardly think it's taking things too far. He led the league in assists. Only Orr and Harry Cameron, back in the days that they barely knew what an assist was had ever done that as a defenseman. He tied (I know) and broke (I think) Denis Potvin's NHL record for the most consecutive seasons by a defenseman leading his team in scoring. He was the first defenseman since Paul Coffey to finish top five in the league in scoring. He dragged a team that possibly wasn't even a playoff caliber team to within one double overtime goal of the Stanley Cup Finals. Compare him to the guys at the top of the list for defensemen, and he did everything he did in Ottawa with a very poor supporting cast. Yeah, his best years were up there with anyone else at the position other than Orr. There just weren't nearly enough of them to get him near the top of the list career wise. Outside of those four years, like I said, he's just good. In those four years, he's phenomenal.

 

[Big Phil]

Just doing a little checking here, but how many players in NHL history have had more assists than the #3 leading scorer in an NHL season? McDavid for sure in 2021 over Marchand (69 points).

Now, obviously Gretzky runs away with this. He had more assists in a season three times than the next player had points, and tied another time, and this was just the #2 guy we are talking about.

But who else had as many or more assists than the #3 guy had points other than Gretzky? I can't find a time Lemieux did this. 1989 is the closest that I can see for him, and this was the #6 scorer (Coffey) that he had more assists than.

All I could find was Orr in 1970. 87 assists, higher than the #3 scorer's points (Mikita, 86). Not even in 1971 when he had 102. 4 players had more points (including him) although they were all Bruins.

Maybe someone else has done this perhaps? Not Howe either. Not even close with Sid. Actually Thornton is closer to him in this regards which makes sense, he was always a pass-first player.

So I guess you have to tip your hand to the 2021 season. Having that stat and still finishing 2nd in goals. Wow. I hope he has a heck of an encore in 2022. But I think looking back historically this is pretty significant.

 

[The Pale King]

Crosby always made you squint a bit in this discussion. McDavid doesn't.

But it's really only a big five if McDavid (or whoever) has some sort of argument over one of the big four. Otherwise he's just the no. five, less part of the "Big Five".

 

[Big Phil]

Crosby always made you squint a bit in this discussion. McDavid doesn't.

But it's really only a big five if McDavid (or whoever) has some sort of argument over one of the big four. Otherwise he's just the no. five, less part of the "Big Five".

What do you mean by squint? You mean you are trying to hard to compare Crosby to McDavid?

 

[daver]

At some point in the future, it may become apparent that the three players in NHL history who put up video game numbers during the time the league expanded it's size four times over were maybe not as far ahead of the pack as their numbers indicated. If by the year 2070, after multiple "next ones" have come and gone, and noone has gotten close to a 200 point season/significantly ahead of the pack like Wayne and Mario, one has to question how much they benefitted from the era in which they played.

I don't have Howe quite on the same offensive level as Wayne and Mario given his lack of multiple seasons at the 52/53 level but his longevity and all around game put him in the Big 4, especially since he was the Big 1 until Orr. Crosby has an argument to be viewed as closer to Howe offensively, particularly in length of prime, than any other player, along with a superior 2-way game than Wayne and Mario but obviously injuries ruined any chance to broach the topic. He still could "Brady" his way into making things interesting though.

McDavid, so far, seems to be exclusively an offensive weapon and is used as such, and has the potential to make as strong a case as anybody that he close to Wayne and Mario is regular season offensive dominance. Whether this can be translated into team success remains to be seen.

Crosby was on track for the Big 5 after his second season, and was making tracks again midway into his 6th season. McDavid has certainly made things interesting with a fuller 6th season, albeit with some obvious caveats.

 

[wetcoast]

In Karlsson's case, I think that when he won two Norrises and could have very easily had two more, there was every reason to think that he could have ended up among the existing top five defensemen, turning that into a group of six. Of course, the sad truth is, outside of those years where he was as good as anybody not named Bobby Orr, he's been just good. That being said, breaking into that top group of defensemen and breaking into the big four aren't the same thing at all.

Karlsson won both of those Norris trophies by extremely slim margins and easily could have lost both as well.

He was an elite offensive Dman in an ideal setting to score points, let’s not exaggerate some mythical Orr comes here.

As for the decade of the 10s his legacy doesn’t really stand out from guys like Doughty or Keith.

 

[TANK200]

Just doing a little checking here, but how many players in NHL history have had more assists than the #3 leading scorer in an NHL season? McDavid for sure in 2021 over Marchand (69 points).

Now, obviously Gretzky runs away with this. He had more assists in a season three times than the next player had points, and tied another time, and this was just the #2 guy we are talking about.

But who else had as many or more assists than the #3 guy had points other than Gretzky? I can't find a time Lemieux did this. 1989 is the closest that I can see for him, and this was the #6 scorer (Coffey) that he had more assists than.

All I could find was Orr in 1970. 87 assists, higher than the #3 scorer's points (Mikita, 86). Not even in 1971 when he had 102. 4 players had more points (including him) although they were all Bruins.

Maybe someone else has done this perhaps? Not Howe either. Not even close with Sid. Actually Thornton is closer to him in this regards which makes sense, he was always a pass-first player.

So I guess you have to tip your hand to the 2021 season. Having that stat and still finishing 2nd in goals. Wow. I hope he has a heck of an encore in 2022. But I think looking back historically this is pretty significant.

Bill Cowley in 1940-41 as well.

 

[Professor What]

Karlsson won both of those Norris trophies by extremely slim margins and easily could have lost both as well.

He was an elite offensive Dman in an ideal setting to score points, let’s not exaggerate some mythical Orr comes here.

As for the decade of the 10s his legacy doesn’t really stand out from guys like Doughty or Keith.

He also lost a Norris after a historic season - a case when historic should actually be used. Ostensibly it was because he didn't play enough defense. The next year, he played a far more defense oriented style because a new coach required it, while having very little reduction to his offense, and he lost took a guy that didn't play defense. Voters and Karlsson were an odd relationship to say the least.

And an ideal situation? There's nothing ideal about having to carry a team on your back. Take Karlsson off of those teams, and the Senators wouldn't have had much of an offense. He actually does stand out. Any potential competition in that decade had a heck of a lot more to work with.

But let's not lose sight of the fact that I'm only talking about four seasons at an ultra elite level. I'm not saying that he's in Lidstrom or Harvey's territory and should have seven Norrises. I'm not saying he was a long term contender like Bourque was for two decades. I'm not saying that you can take a quarter century of history and argue that he's its greatest player like Shore. I'm saying those particular years were all-time great level. Yes, there was something very special about those years. But he's an extreme example of a ridiculous peak without long term performance to match it. That context of what I'm saying seems to be getting ignored.

 

[Troubadour]

Crosby was on track for the Big 5 after his second season, and was making tracks again midway into his 6th season. McDavid has certainly made things interesting with a fuller 6th season, albeit with some obvious caveats.

After his second season? After outscoring Thornton by six points? After getting outscored at ES by Thornton, Iginla, Lecavaliere, St. Louis, Heatley, Vanek, Briere, Tanguay and Olli, I repeat, Olli Jokinen?

In the words of John McEnroe, "you can't be serious!"

Big 5 would take a lasting dominance, or a shorter but otherworldly peak, and, ideally, both.

Sid had neither. At his best, he was dominant, but not that dominant. And he was extremely good for a long time, but rarely had you thinking "wow, this rivals Mario, Gretzky, Orr, Howe!"

It was more like, yeah, he probably is better than Sakic ever was after all.

 

[daver]

After his second season? After outscoring Thornton by six points? After getting outscored at ES by Thornton, Iginla, Lecavaliere, St. Louis, Heatley, Vanek, Briere, Tanguay and Olli, I repeat, Olli Jokinen?

In the words of John McEnroe, "you can't be serious!"

Big 5 would take a lasting dominance, or a shorter but otherworldly peak, and, ideally, both.

Sid had neither. At his best, he was dominant, but not that dominant. And he was extremely good for a long time, but rarely had you thinking "wow, this rivals Mario, Gretzky, Orr, Howe!"

It was more like, yeah, he probably is better than Sakic ever was after all.

Neither Wayne, Howe or Mario had won an Art Ross as a teenager, and this was after having 2nd best season as an 18 year old in NHL history, arguably the best if you consider Wayne turned 19 midway through his first NHL season. He was absolutely in their tier as a prospect and through their first two seasons. If not for injuries, possibly could have had an Art Ross resume that would have approached Howe's, save for his 52/53 season. He is certainly viewed as being a better 2-way player than Wayne and Mario, and could conceivably surpass all of them with his playoff/international tournament resume.

As for ES points counting more than PP points, Crosby has hardly been as reliant on PP points as a certain member of the Big 4 has. It actually can be easily argued that Crosby, at his peak, was as good of an ES scorer as a certain member of the Big 4.

 

[Troubadour]

Neither Wayne, Howe or Mario had won an Art Ross as a teenager. He was absolutely in their tier as a prospect and through their first two seasons.

I dunno Daver. Gretzky won the Hart in his very first NHL season and co-led the scoring race having played fewer games than Dionne, also led the league in ES points, and the only thing preventing Lemieux from winning an Art in his second year was Gretzky himself.

Let's not forget Crosby was lucky to have been born as he was, which meant he was a teen for the first two full NHL seasons of his career, which in itself increases the likelihood of winning anything as a teen so selective fans of your ilk can gush over it.

But the most important thing as I see it is that being on track for Big 4 or Big 5 after mere two seasons probably requires something slightly more extraordinary than beating Joe Thornton for the Art in year two. Although it was a great season, it provided more questions than answers. Like, can he improve on it? Because we knew it wasn't quite enough. For Big 5.

If the certain someone you so elegantly hint at happens to be Lemieux, we shouldn't forget he blew Sid out of the water at PP to a much more convincing extent than Sid may have an edge over Lemieux at ES, if he has, any, at all.

 

[psycat]

I would say there is a slim chance he will be ranked clear 5th of all time once all is said and done, obviously I would bet against it since there has been a lot of great players, with great careers and longveity. The ship for making it a big 5 might already have sailed, a partial fraud season where he might have equaled say Jagrs best season if it was a full season(but obviously not since he only faced same handful of teams) or a couple of relatively weak scoring titles is simply not enough to make it a big 5.

Irrelevant if he beats Crosby or not to me since Crosby is vastly overrated in my opinion, still an all time great but on the low end of top 20(simply lacks the peak) for me.

 

[authentic]

Just doing a little checking here, but how many players in NHL history have had more assists than the #3 leading scorer in an NHL season? McDavid for sure in 2021 over Marchand (69 points).

Now, obviously Gretzky runs away with this. He had more assists in a season three times than the next player had points, and tied another time, and this was just the #2 guy we are talking about.

But who else had as many or more assists than the #3 guy had points other than Gretzky? I can't find a time Lemieux did this. 1989 is the closest that I can see for him, and this was the #6 scorer (Coffey) that he had more assists than.

All I could find was Orr in 1970. 87 assists, higher than the #3 scorer's points (Mikita, 86). Not even in 1971 when he had 102. 4 players had more points (including him) although they were all Bruins.

Maybe someone else has done this perhaps? Not Howe either. Not even close with Sid. Actually Thornton is closer to him in this regards which makes sense, he was always a pass-first player.

So I guess you have to tip your hand to the 2021 season. Having that stat and still finishing 2nd in goals. Wow. I hope he has a heck of an encore in 2022. But I think looking back historically this is pretty significant.

This is exactly what people have been saying, regardless of these divisions he's absolutely dominating to an extent Crosby or Ovechkin never came close to, and the scoring in the North division is roughly the average of all 4 divisions and no higher than the full regular season last year. I think he probably has a little boost this season, but nothing that would see him not still be the most dominant point producer since one of Lemieux's seasons.

 

[authentic]

At some point in the future, it may become apparent that the three players in NHL history who put up video game numbers during the time the league expanded it's size four times over were maybe not as far ahead of the pack as their numbers indicated. If by the year 2070, after multiple "next ones" have come and gone, and noone has gotten close to a 200 point season/significantly ahead of the pack like Wayne and Mario, one has to question how much they benefitted from the era in which they played.

I don't have Howe quite on the same offensive level as Wayne and Mario given his lack of multiple seasons at the 52/53 level but his longevity and all around game put him in the Big 4, especially since he was the Big 1 until Orr. Crosby has an argument to be viewed as closer to Howe offensively, particularly in length of prime, than any other player, along with a superior 2-way game than Wayne and Mario but obviously injuries ruined any chance to broach the topic. He still could "Brady" his way into making things interesting though.

McDavid, so far, seems to be exclusively an offensive weapon and is used as such, and has the potential to make as strong a case as anybody that he close to Wayne and Mario is regular season offensive dominance. Whether this can be translated into team success remains to be seen.

Crosby was on track for the Big 5 after his second season, and was making tracks again midway into his 6th season. McDavid has certainly made things interesting with a fuller 6th season, albeit with some obvious caveats.

I don't think there's any doubt the eras helped with their dominance, but yes the big 4 would likely still be the big 4 anyway.

 

[authentic]

He also lost a Norris after a historic season - a case when historic should actually be used. Ostensibly it was because he didn't play enough defense. The next year, he played a far more defense oriented style because a new coach required it, while having very little reduction to his offense, and he lost took a guy that didn't play defense. Voters and Karlsson were an odd relationship to say the least.

And an ideal situation? There's nothing ideal about having to carry a team on your back. Take Karlsson off of those teams, and the Senators wouldn't have had much of an offense. He actually does stand out. Any potential competition in that decade had a heck of a lot more to work with.

But let's not lose sight of the fact that I'm only talking about four seasons at an ultra elite level. I'm not saying that he's in Lidstrom or Harvey's territory and should have seven Norrises. I'm not saying he was a long term contender like Bourque was for two decades. I'm not saying that you can take a quarter century of history and argue that he's its greatest player like Shore. I'm saying those particular years were all-time great level. Yes, there was something very special about those years. But he's an extreme example of a ridiculous peak without long term performance to match it. That context of what I'm saying seems to be getting ignored.

I saw Karlsson pretty much front row in 2016 and his skill level was shockingly good in comparison to players like the Sedins', Hossa, Kopitar, Backstrom, etc. He absolulely was one of the best defensemen ever at his peak, even if it was mostly because of his offense. His offense was just that good.

 

[authentic]

I would say there is a slim chance he will be ranked clear 5th of all time once all is said and done, obviously I would bet against it since there has been a lot of great players, with great careers and longveity. The ship for making it a big 5 might already have sailed, a partial fraud season where he might have equaled say Jagrs best season if it was a full season(but obviously not since he only faced same handful of teams) or a couple of relatively weak scoring titles is simply not enough to make it a big 5.

Irrelevant if he beats Crosby or not to me since Crosby is vastly overrated in my opinion, still an all time great but on the low end of top 20(simply lacks the peak) for me.

He's more dominant than any of Jagr's best seasons though, divisions or not. He has twice the points of the 18th leading scorer, further ahead of 2nd and 3rd than anyone since 1987. More assists than the 3rd leading point scorer. You really believe that can all be chalked up to the divisions?

 

[daver]

I dunno Daver. Gretzky won the Hart in his very first NHL season and co-led the scoring race having played fewer games than Dionne, also led the league in ES points, and the only thing preventing Lemieux from winning an Art in his second year was Gretzky himself.

Let's not forget Crosby was lucky to have been born as he was, which meant he was a teen for the first two full NHL seasons of his career, which in itself increases the likelihood of winning anything as a teen so selective fans of your ilk can gush over it.

But the most important thing as I see it is that being on track for Big 4 or Big 5 after mere two seasons probably requires something slightly more extraordinary than beating Joe Thornton for the Art in year two. Although it was a great season, it provided more questions than answers. Like, can he improve on it? Because we knew it wasn't quite enough. For Big 5.

If the certain someone you so elegantly hint at happens to be Lemieux, we shouldn't forget he blew Sid out of the water at PP to a much more convincing extent than Sid may have an edge over Lemieux at ES, if he has, any, at all.

Mario was almost a full year older than Crosby and couldn't manage better than 10th in his rookie season and his 2nd season was, according to you, less valuable because he was 5th in ES points. Oh but I see now that PP points do have more value when Mario scores them.

Full marks to Wayne for his T1st as an 18/19 year old with a year of pro under his belt. I wouldn't say his season was anything special, maybe he reached 110-115 points if he played in 05/06. (Look forward to another name drop in your response).

In full agreement that Crosby needed to improve on his 2nd season like Wayne and Mario also did and I have said that like McDavid, Crosby was likely more NHL-ready than their phenom predecessors like Mario and hit the ground running.

I am not sure you are objective in your viewpoint if you think the first, and only, athlete in NA sports history to win a scoring championship as a teenager wasn't historical. Especially one that had the best pre-draft junior career in CHL history.

 

[daver]

He's more dominant than any of Jagr's best seasons though, divisions or not. He has twice the points of the 18th leading scorer, further ahead of 2nd and 3rd than anyone since 1987. More assists than the 3rd leading point scorer. You really believe that can all be chalked up to the divisions?

If he had did it before, or does it again, it will go down as one of the best post Wayne/Mario seasons. Simply too far from normal this year to treat it at face value.

 

[authentic]

If he had did it before, or does it again, it will go down as one of the best post Wayne/Mario seasons. Simply too far from normal this year to treat it at face value.

He's right in his prime now, I don't see any reason why he won't. Time will tell.

 

[Troubadour]

Mario was almost a full year older than Crosby and couldn't manage better than 10th in his rookie season and his 2nd season was, according to you, less valuable because he was 5th in ES points. Oh but I see now that PP points do have more value when Mario scores them.

Well, 5th in ES points is still higher than Sid was in his second year. So if we pretend to be going by my logic, a little consistence wouldn't hurt.

I'm not sure what you're seeing now. Of course if a player A is 8 out of 10 at ES, a player B 8.1 (such is the difference in Sid's imaginary favor, just for the sake of my little demonstration) but player A is 11 out of 10 at PP while player B about 8.5, I'll take player A despite the obvious fact ES points are much harder to come by. It's called nuance.

In reality, not even you are anywhere close to belief Sid at his best was half the ES player Mario was. It's just that Mario was a phenomenal PP player which may send less focused minds into a bit of haze. Hm?

Yeah, Sid had a lot of hype. The onset of social media helped that too. But that does very little for his Big 5 case. He also failed to win the Calder in his rookie year. What I'm trying to say, unless a hockey player really is doing something otherworldly in his first two years, it's very daring to even suggest he's on track to HHoF, let alone making it Big 5. Sid was great. That's all.

 

[daver]

Well, 5th in ES points is still higher than Sid was in his second year. So if we pretend to be going by my logic, a little consistence wouldn't hurt.

So ES points is or is not the cat's meow? If it is, why is Mario in the Big Four if he has less career ES points than Stevie Y and considerably less per game than Wayne.

NHL Stats

Let me guess, you will throw out a points and PPG argument for Mario over Stevie Y. but ignore that for Crosby.

Honestly, you seem hell bent on seeing the glass half empty for Crosby for some reason.

 

[daver]

Well, 5th in ES points is still higher than Sid was in his second year. So if we pretend to be going by my logic, a little consistence wouldn't hurt.

I'm not sure what you're seeing now. Of course if a player A is 8 out of 10 at ES, a player B 8.1 (such is the difference in Sid's imaginary favor, just for the sake of my little demonstration) but player A is 11 out of 10 at PP while player B about 8.5, I'll take player A despite the obvious fact ES points are much harder to come by. It's called nuance.

In reality, not even you are anywhere close to belief Sid at his best was half the ES player Mario was. It's just that Mario was a phenomenal PP player which may send less focused minds into a bit of haze. Hm?

Yeah, Sid had a lot of hype. The onset of social media helped that too. But that does very little for his Big 5 case. He also failed to win the Calder in his rookie year. What I'm trying to say, unless a hockey player really is doing something otherworldly in his first two years, it's very daring to even suggest he's on track to HHoF, let alone making it Big 5. Sid was great. That's all.

"But that does very little for his Big 5 case." Was making a case for him after two seasons as a reminder.

"He also failed to win the Calder in his rookie year." Wayne failed to win the Calder too despite tying with Dionne for the Art Ross.*

* awaits irony of the nuance you are undoubtedly going to provide knowing full well that likely no other 18 year old rookie in NHL history wins the Calder against OV in 05/06.

 

[ResilientBeast]

Well, 5th in ES points is still higher than Sid was in his second year. So if we pretend to be going by my logic, a little consistence wouldn't hurt.

I'm not sure what you're seeing now. Of course if a player A is 8 out of 10 at ES, a player B 8.1 (such is the difference in Sid's imaginary favor, just for the sake of my little demonstration) but player A is 11 out of 10 at PP while player B about 8.5, I'll take player A despite the obvious fact ES points are much harder to come by. It's called nuance.

In reality, not even you are anywhere close to belief Sid at his best was half the ES player Mario was. It's just that Mario was a phenomenal PP player which may send less focused minds into a bit of haze. Hm?

Yeah, Sid had a lot of hype. The onset of social media helped that too. But that does very little for his Big 5 case. He also failed to win the Calder in his rookie year. What I'm trying to say, unless a hockey player really is doing something otherworldly in his first two years, it's very daring to even suggest he's on track to HHoF, let alone making it Big 5. Sid was great. That's all.

"Failed to win the calder"

Suffered a rough hit that shattered his collarbone meaning he didn't play more than like 50% of the season lol