What are the odds that McDavid becomes a member of the Big 5?

The Panther

Registered User
Mar 25, 2014
19,219
15,794
Tokyo, Japan
This stat doesn't necessarily have anything to do with 'Big 5' application, but McDavid ended up with 105 points on 183 Edmonton goals for the season. That's 57.4% of the club's total scores that McDavid went onto the score-sheet for.

I believe that's the highest percentage all time, just a shade over Mario/Pittsburgh in 1988-89 (though Mario might have still held first if not missing a few games).

I kind-of predicted this was going to happen a year or two ago, because we're in a phase now where PP-scoring is really dominant. The Oilers these days often have McDavid and Draisaitl out for most or all of the PP, and it just took a peak-level season from the top talent for the elusive 57% rate to be matched. (Draisaitl was already at 49.3% last season.)
 

BenchBrawl

Registered User
Jul 26, 2010
30,880
13,671
For all I know, Connor is nothing but a class act. I'm happy someone is burning the league again, and he's a great ambassador for the sport : hope he goes on a multiple seasons massive run of obliterating the league, winning multiple Stanley Cups along the way.
 

Troubadour

Registered User
Feb 23, 2018
1,157
842
"But that does very little for his Big 5 case." Was making a case for him after two seasons as a reminder.

"He also failed to win the Calder in his rookie year." Wayne failed to win the Calder too despite tying with Dionne for the Art Ross.*

* awaits irony of the nuance you are undoubtedly going to provide knowing full well that likely no other 18 year old rookie in NHL history wins the Calder against OV in 05/06.

The nuance is, Gretzky, unlike Sid, was not eligible. That's a whole lot of nuance you're missing out on there, Daver.
 

Fourier

Registered User
Dec 29, 2006
25,612
19,903
Waterloo Ontario
Mario was almost a full year older than Crosby and couldn't manage better than 10th in his rookie season and his 2nd season was, according to you, less valuable because he was 5th in ES points. Oh but I see now that PP points do have more value when Mario scores them.

Full marks to Wayne for his T1st as an 18/19 year old with a year of pro under his belt. I wouldn't say his season was anything special, maybe he reached 110-115 points if he played in 05/06. (Look forward to another name drop in your response).

In full agreement that Crosby needed to improve on his 2nd season like Wayne and Mario also did and I have said that like McDavid, Crosby was likely more NHL-ready than their phenom predecessors like Mario and hit the ground running.

I am not sure you are objective in your viewpoint if you think the first, and only, athlete in NA sports history to win a scoring championship as a teenager wasn't historical. Especially one that had the best pre-draft junior career in CHL history.
I take it you didn't watch the Oilers much in Gretzky's first year if you think his season was nothing special. 137 points on an expansion team dragging around B.J. MacDonald and Brett Callaghan is something no other player in my time could have done. How do you think Crosby's 2006-2007 season would have gone if the next best forwards on the team were Michelle Oulette and Colby Armstrong and the best offensive defenseman was Rob Scuderi?
 
  • Like
Reactions: Sentinel

Big Phil

Registered User
Nov 2, 2003
31,703
4,146
At some point in the future, it may become apparent that the three players in NHL history who put up video game numbers during the time the league expanded it's size four times over were maybe not as far ahead of the pack as their numbers indicated. If by the year 2070, after multiple "next ones" have come and gone, and noone has gotten close to a 200 point season/significantly ahead of the pack like Wayne and Mario, one has to question how much they benefitted from the era in which they played.

I don't have Howe quite on the same offensive level as Wayne and Mario given his lack of multiple seasons at the 52/53 level but his longevity and all around game put him in the Big 4, especially since he was the Big 1 until Orr. Crosby has an argument to be viewed as closer to Howe offensively, particularly in length of prime, than any other player, along with a superior 2-way game than Wayne and Mario but obviously injuries ruined any chance to broach the topic. He still could "Brady" his way into making things interesting though.

McDavid, so far, seems to be exclusively an offensive weapon and is used as such, and has the potential to make as strong a case as anybody that he close to Wayne and Mario is regular season offensive dominance. Whether this can be translated into team success remains to be seen.

Crosby was on track for the Big 5 after his second season, and was making tracks again midway into his 6th season. McDavid has certainly made things interesting with a fuller 6th season, albeit with some obvious caveats.

I think if by the year 2070 no one comes close to the 200 point level then wouldn't it be more of a good thing for Gretzky and Lemieux instead of a "Well, it must mean their era had something do to with it?" Almost everyone who watched them play will be dead by 2070, so basically you are going to have to look at it the same way we look at Babe Ruth today. Because no one is alive that can remember him play either...................who isn't 100 years old anyway. Isn't it a good thing that even to this day, while a couple of people passed Ruth in home runs that both players needed significantly more at-bats/late career performance enhancing drugs in order to do it? Even more so if you count plate appearances and not just at-bats.

Ruth - 714 home runs in 8399 ABs
Aaron - 755 home runs in 12364 ABs
Bonds - 762 home runs in 9847 ABs

I mean, if there are daunting records that are still impressive after 100 years isn't there a reason for it? And this is factoring in that the game of baseball from a statistical level hasn't changed a heck of a lot from Ruth's to the current day. There is a reason Ruth was dominating the home run race for more or less a decade, even after teams starting figuring out the long ball was worth it.

Same with Gretzky and Lemieux, I think people look at their video game numbers and try to justify a way that it isn't possible for this to happen today. I think it is possible. I just think both were better than McDavid. Put it this way, Lemieux comes back from cancer in 1993, he is 12 points or so behind Pat Lafontaine for the scoring lead and racks up 56 points in the final 20 games and beats Lafontaine by 12. And it isn't as if Lafontaine didn't still put up good numbers at the end either. Lemieux was simply just that good, that's why the Penguins had that 17 game winning streak at that time which has never even been tied despite the advent of shootout wins and such.

I think there are times when a player is simply just that good. Whether it is just raw God-given talent or just unreal hockey sense there is always one guy that can do something better than anyone else. And remember to always fall back on how they dominated their peers. Gretzky did this for a decade, so if people say, "Well it was their era" just look at the Stastny/Bossy/Kurri/Trottier/Dionne/Hawerchuk numbers and see just how far behind those great players were.


This is exactly what people have been saying, regardless of these divisions he's absolutely dominating to an extent Crosby or Ovechkin never came close to, and the scoring in the North division is roughly the average of all 4 divisions and no higher than the full regular season last year. I think he probably has a little boost this season, but nothing that would see him not still be the most dominant point producer since one of Lemieux's seasons.

It will be exciting to find out.

Bill Cowley in 1940-41 as well.

Oh wow, no kidding. Okay, I'd have lost that bet that Cowley is the only player outside of Orr and Gretzky to have more assists than the #3 scorer had points. He does strangely get overlooked by everyone - including myself - when thinking about the greats. Honestly, he should truly be discussed among the great centres in history a lot more often.

After his second season? After outscoring Thornton by six points? After getting outscored at ES by Thornton, Iginla, Lecavaliere, St. Louis, Heatley, Vanek, Briere, Tanguay and Olli, I repeat, Olli Jokinen?

In the words of John McEnroe, "you can't be serious!"

Big 5 would take a lasting dominance, or a shorter but otherworldly peak, and, ideally, both.

Sid had neither. At his best, he was dominant, but not that dominant. And he was extremely good for a long time, but rarely had you thinking "wow, this rivals Mario, Gretzky, Orr, Howe!"

It was more like, yeah, he probably is better than Sakic ever was after all.

I agree, and disagree. I think he is right when he says there was plenty of excitement surrounding Sid in 2007. This is a 19 year old kid beating the field in the NHL. I can remember his 6 point game against Philly that season where he overtook the scoring lead in December or so and never looked back. I was thinking "Wow, he's the best player in the NHL". It was a weird season for Crosby in regards to power play points vs. even strength points, but still, 120 points is 120 points. If he scored 61 PP vs. 59 ES then that's fine. It was just the one season where he did this. But there definitely was some excitement surrounding it. I can remember it vividly. I remember sort of comparing him with Gretzky and Mario's first two seasons. I didn't think he quite reached Gretzky's first two years, but there was a decent argument Crosby had at least as good of a first two years in the NHL as Mario. It is a moot point anyway, because at the end of the day both Mario and Wayne hit a level of superstardom (Gretzky 3rd season, Mario 4th) that Sid never was parallel with. So you are right in a way where Crosby is the type that has just been great for a long time but lacks the super greatness of the big 4 (hey, who doesn't?) Him being aligned with Beliveau at the end of his career - or like you said clearly above Sakic - is more like it. But those first two seasons...............I think he's right, you were wondering just where he was going to take his game to.
 

daver

Registered User
Apr 4, 2003
25,953
5,832
Visit site
I take it you didn't watch the Oilers much in Gretzky's first year if you think his season was nothing special. 137 points on an expansion team dragging around B.J. MacDonald and Brett Callaghan is something no other player in my time could have done. How do you think Crosby's 2006-2007 season would have gone if the next best forwards on the team were Michelle Oulette and Colby Armstrong and the best offensive defenseman was Rob Scuderi?

Are you saying we should handicap Wayne and Crosby's best seasons based on teammates?
 

Fourier

Registered User
Dec 29, 2006
25,612
19,903
Waterloo Ontario
Are you saying we should handicap Wayne and Crosby's best seasons based on teammates?
Not at all. What I am saying is that you indicated his season was nothing speciaal. Having watched every home game he played that year live I am saying you don't know what you are talking about.
 

Sentinel

Registered User
May 26, 2009
12,848
4,688
New Jersey
www.vvinenglish.com
For all I know, Connor is nothing but a class act. I'm happy someone is burning the league again, and he's a great ambassador for the sport : hope he goes on a multiple seasons massive run of obliterating the league, winning multiple Stanley Cups along the way.
I don't think he is a good ambassador for the sport at all. He has all the personality of a frozen robotic fish.
 

Staniowski

Registered User
Jan 13, 2018
3,517
3,078
The Maritimes
Just doing a little checking here, but how many players in NHL history have had more assists than the #3 leading scorer in an NHL season? McDavid for sure in 2021 over Marchand (69 points).

Now, obviously Gretzky runs away with this. He had more assists in a season three times than the next player had points, and tied another time, and this was just the #2 guy we are talking about.

But who else had as many or more assists than the #3 guy had points other than Gretzky? I can't find a time Lemieux did this. 1989 is the closest that I can see for him, and this was the #6 scorer (Coffey) that he had more assists than.

All I could find was Orr in 1970. 87 assists, higher than the #3 scorer's points (Mikita, 86). Not even in 1971 when he had 102. 4 players had more points (including him) although they were all Bruins.

Maybe someone else has done this perhaps? Not Howe either. Not even close with Sid. Actually Thornton is closer to him in this regards which makes sense, he was always a pass-first player.

So I guess you have to tip your hand to the 2021 season. Having that stat and still finishing 2nd in goals. Wow. I hope he has a heck of an encore in 2022. But I think looking back historically this is pretty significant.
Re: McDavid having more assists than the 3rd leading scorer has points....

We should note that this is only the case because McDavid played every game and several of the best scorers missed a significant number of games.

In particular, probably the 3 best scorers (other than McDavid and Draisaitl) are MacKinnon, Panarin and Kucherov....they missed 8 games, 14, and (all) 56, respectively.

Some of the other guys missed games too.
 

Staniowski

Registered User
Jan 13, 2018
3,517
3,078
The Maritimes
For all I know, Connor is nothing but a class act. I'm happy someone is burning the league again, and he's a great ambassador for the sport : hope he goes on a multiple seasons massive run of obliterating the league, winning multiple Stanley Cups along the way.
I agree that it would be great for hockey if McDavid went on a major tear over the next few seasons.
 

BenchBrawl

Registered User
Jul 26, 2010
30,880
13,671
I don't think he is a good ambassador for the sport at all. He has all the personality of a frozen robotic fish.

Crosby is one of the greatest ambassadors in hockey history, and he's not exuberant. Wild extroverts are not a good fit to be the main face of hockey IMO. They are better off as peripheric personas, like Roenick. Not the top guy like a Crosby or Béliveau or Howe or Gretzky. Not sure how exuberant Bobby Hull was as a public personality in his prime, could be the exception, him or Esposito (who was not really the #1 guy anyway since Orr was there, but close, like Ovechkin with Crosby).
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: wetcoast

Sentinel

Registered User
May 26, 2009
12,848
4,688
New Jersey
www.vvinenglish.com
Crosby is one of the greatest ambassadors in hockey history, and he's not exuberant. Wild extroverts are not a good fit to be the main face of hockey IMO. They are better off as peripheric personas, like Roenick. Not the top guy like a Crosby or Béliveau or Howe or Gretzky. Not sure how exuberant Bobby Hull was as a public personality in his prime, could be the exception, him or Esposito (who was not really the #1 guy anyway since Orr was there, but close, like Ovechkin with Crosby).
Esposito and Ovechkin are much better ambassadors for hockey than all others you listed.
 

The Panther

Registered User
Mar 25, 2014
19,219
15,794
Tokyo, Japan
Yes, McDavid is, like, the most exciting player I've ever seen but his personality (on camera) is about as appealing as a septic tank. Crosby is much the same, but at least he's sometimes honest in his pronouncements and he seems to have "hidden layers", like you wonder what he's doing in his summers. McDavid's charisma-appeal is a big, fat, zero.

But maybe this will change.
 

Big Phil

Registered User
Nov 2, 2003
31,703
4,146
Re: McDavid having more assists than the 3rd leading scorer has points....

We should note that this is only the case because McDavid played every game and several of the best scorers missed a significant number of games.

In particular, probably the 3 best scorers (other than McDavid and Draisaitl) are MacKinnon, Panarin and Kucherov....they missed 8 games, 14, and (all) 56, respectively.

Some of the other guys missed games too.

I think in every NHL year you're going to get that. I still say it will be interesting to see what he does next year.

Yes, McDavid is, like, the most exciting player I've ever seen but his personality (on camera) is about as appealing as a septic tank. Crosby is much the same, but at least he's sometimes honest in his pronouncements and he seems to have "hidden layers", like you wonder what he's doing in his summers. McDavid's charisma-appeal is a big, fat, zero.

But maybe this will change.

Tom Brady is considered "boring" as well. Doesn't matter to me. You can be vanilla, a true fan will appreciate your impact on the sport regardless.
 

vadim sharifijanov

Registered User
Oct 10, 2007
28,784
16,233
oof zero pts through two games. en route to a kucherov-esque humiliation?

not that it hurt kuch too much in the long run. kid will have his day too i’m sure
 

Ad

Upcoming events

Ad

Ad