Speculation: What are the chances Larsson starts the season in Rochester?

[VanekFanatic26]

I think the chances of Larsson making the roster are pretty slim, and that's due to all the players who would need to clear waivers. Since Larsson is exempt from waivers, I don't see the Sabres making a priority for him to stay on the roster unless he has an absolutely awesome camp.

Furthermore, as I mentioned before, lots of players are no longer eligible for waivers. Luke Adam is the most notable player who is no longer eligible to be sent down with a waiver exemption, and I think he could be a surprise make for the roster as a 3rd line center.

I think we get a top six of Gionta, Ennis, Hodgson, Stafford, Reinhart, and Foligno.

In the bottom six, I think you may have Stewart, Kaleta, Girgensons, Flynn, McCormick, DesLauriers, with Torrey Mitchell and Luke Adam being your extra forwards, and Matt Ellis and Johan Larsson being sent down.

I think it's worth noting that Foligno and Stewart will probably switch roles throughout the year between the second and the third line, with neither of them really standing out. I think you'll see Mitchell and Adam rotating in with the bottom six pretty frequently, as well.

 

[VanekFanatic26]

I think the odds are in Larsson's favor that he's on the team next year. I really don't see any need for him to be in the AHL. While we did add quite a few forwards, given where the team is at, I have to think if Larsson is ready they'll make room for him to play where he needs to.

The only problem is Larsson is pretty much the only forward who will be on the cusp of making the team that's still exempt from waivers.

 

[NEcoli]

I think the chances of Larsson making the roster are pretty slim, and that's due to all the players who would need to clear waivers. Since Larsson is exempt from waivers, I don't see the Sabres making a priority for him to stay on the roster unless he has an absolutely awesome camp.

Furthermore, as I mentioned before, lots of players are no longer eligible for waivers. Luke Adam is the most notable player who is no longer eligible to be sent down with a waiver exemption, and I think he could be a surprise make for the roster as a 3rd line center.

I think we get a top six of Gionta, Ennis, Hodgson, Stafford, Reinhart, and Foligno.

In the bottom six, I think you may have Stewart, Kaleta, Girgensons, Flynn, McCormick, DesLauriers, with Torrey Mitchell and Luke Adam being your extra forwards, and Matt Ellis and Johan Larsson being sent down.

I think it's worth noting that Foligno and Stewart will probably switch roles throughout the year between the second and the third line, with neither of them really standing out. I think you'll see Mitchell and Adam rotating in with the bottom six pretty frequently, as well.

I completely forgot about Adam. I could see a team picking him up if he hits the waiver wire.

 

[Rhett4]

I completely forgot about Adam. I could see a team picking him up if he hits the waiver wire.

Adam cleared waivers last year. It's highly unlikely he gets claimed. He's definitely going down to Rochester, where he'll carve out a nice AHL career and get the occasional brief call up.

 

[Yatzhee]

I don't think thats going to be an issue any time soon. If anything a decision will be made on Larsson soon because after this season he loses his waiver exemption.

I believe he starts out in Rochester, but I am with sba on a couple of points. More moves are coming in my opinion. We've collected a ton of assets these past 2 years and signed some leadership guys. Slots on the big club are getting filled and judging by both Gorges and Gionta's deals, for at least another 2 seasons. I don't see Reinhart up this year unless they plan on sticking him with one of the leadership guys to show him the ropes at the NHL level, and there is no rush given those players contract lengths.
Larsson could be moved in a trade, or, Murray could make a move from here to the dead line and Larsson can fill that slot that is vacated with a move, but once again, I have to tell ya, I see a great deal of assets that are going to be vying for a roster spot in the next 12 to 14 months. Moves are coming for sure, and with Moulson, Gionta and Gorges most likely not going anywhere, I see those assets collected being the ones on the move, including Larsson as a possibility.

 

[mgeise]

Adam cleared waivers last year. It's highly unlikely he gets claimed. He's definitely going down to Rochester, where he'll carve out a nice AHL career and get the occasional brief call up.

I agree. If he doesn't make this team, what other forward corps would be in need of Luke Adam? I don't think he's done anything to become more valuable after the end of camp last year - he didn't do anything at the NHL level yet again. At this point in his career he looks like he'll be a Keith Aucoin-type.

 

[mgeise]

I think he starts the season in the AHL. We know our top nine at this point, and then I expect the last five forwards to be McCormick, Mitchell, Flynn, Kaleta, and Deslauriers (more due to the fact that he cannot clear waivers to go to Rochester). If Reinhart isn't in Buffalo to start the season or returns after his nine game audition, there is a spot for Larsson here.

I think there's still some offensive upside to squeeze out of Larsson, which playing on the #1 line down in Rochester can help him to reach. We'll see injuries and forwards moved out via trade, so he'll be in Buffalo full-time by the trade deadline, hopefully after putting up some offensive numbers down in Rochester.

 

[Rhett4]

I believe he starts out in Rochester, but I am with sba on a couple of points. More moves are coming in my opinion. We've collected a ton of assets these past 2 years and signed some leadership guys. Slots on the big club are getting filled and judging by both Gorges and Gionta's deals, for at least another 2 seasons. I don't see Reinhart up this year unless they plan on sticking him with one of the leadership guys to show him the ropes at the NHL level, and there is no rush given those players contract lengths.
Larsson could be moved in a trade, or, Murray could make a move from here to the dead line and Larsson can fill that slot that is vacated with a move, but once again, I have to tell ya, I see a great deal of assets that are going to be vying for a roster spot in the next 12 to 14 months. Moves are coming for sure, and with Moulson, Gionta and Gorges most likely not going anywhere, I see those assets collected being the ones on the move, including Larsson as a possibility.

This team was worst in the league last year. You don't suddenly start shipping out prospects just as they become NHL ready because there are too many bodies. There will be many opportunities in the coming years for guys to force their way into this lineup. If Larsson looks to be a third-line staple, there will be a spot in the lineup for him moving forward. If for whatever reason he doesn't pan out, then I see him being moved. This team hasn't collected a bunch of prospects these last few years not to give them a fair shot to prove they can be a part of the future.

The only way good, young assets get moved before getting their shot would be part of a package to bring a quality young player here (ala Evander Kane). In the case of Larsson, he's not going to be much help in landing a fish that big.

I think the kid gets a lot of time in Buffalo this year to prove himself, and based on the 20-odd times I watched him in Rochester last year, I think he'll do just that. Someone earlier mentioned him being a pesky version of Hecht, and while not entirely accurate, there are many similarities. An annual 40-point LW/C that can move between the top and bottom six and between positions is a good asset to have. (Edmonton would kill to have quality depth to play with their top-tier talent.)

 

[mgeise]

This team was worst in the league last year. You don't suddenly start shipping out prospects just as they become NHL ready because there are too many bodies. There will be many opportunities in the coming years for guys to force their way into this lineup. If Larsson looks to be a third-line staple, there will be a spot in the lineup for him moving forward. If for whatever reason he doesn't pan out, then I see him being moved. This team hasn't collected a bunch of prospects these last few years not to give them a fair shot to prove they can be a part of the future.

Exactly. Another great thing about the roster than Murray has assembled is the future flexibility. Stafford, Stewart, Mitchell, and Kaleta are all UFAs after the season; if any combination of Larsson, Grigorenko, and Armia force their way up here, there are spots available for them.

Most of the assets that this team has will be years away from truly competing for roster spots. Compher, Fasching, Baptiste, Possler, Bailey, Carrier, Lemieux, Karabacek, Cornel, Hurley, NYI 1st, St. Louis 1st, etc. are all far away from reaching the NHL and are still unknown quantities at this point. The only guys that are truly knocking on the door are Larsson, Grigorenko, Armia, Reinhart (though it looks like he'll make the team to start this year), and our first rounder next year.

It's not like there's a logjam on D, either. Gorges is the only entrenched left side defenseman, so there are spots for Zadorov and McCabe when they are ready. There isn't anyone on the right side blocking Pysyk and Ristolainen, either.

 

[VaporTrail]

It's really impossible to tell at this point.

If we opt Reinhart back to the WHL, then there is pretty much a spot open if we slide Hodgson back to center.

And then there could be other moves, injuries, etc that could change things very quickly. Hell Ennis could hold out. We honestly don't know.

dream scenario for me....Reinhart back to juniors....And Ennis holds out.

Would have to think Larsson makes the squad then.

 

[Corto]

dream scenario for me....Reinhart back to juniors....And Ennis holds out.

I wouldn't mind that. I just don't think Ennis will turn out to be a winner at NHL level.
I could be wrong of course, but that's my gut feeling.

Anyway, regardless of where he starts, I hope they give Larsson some good chances to establish himself at NHL level. IMO, he's ready to do that after getting some good looks in last season.

 

[Rhett4]

dream scenario for me....Reinhart back to juniors....And Ennis holds out.

Would have to think Larsson makes the squad then.

I wouldn't mind that. I just don't think Ennis will turn out to be a winner at NHL level.
I could be wrong of course, but that's my gut feeling.

Anyway, regardless of where he starts, I hope they give Larsson some good chances to establish himself at NHL level. IMO, he's ready to do that after getting some good looks in last season.

Did I enter bizarro world? In what way would Ennis holding out be good for the Sabres in either the short-term or the long-term?

 

[mgeise]

dream scenario for me....Reinhart back to juniors....And Ennis holds out.

Would have to think Larsson makes the squad then.

In what way is Ennis holding out good for the Sabres? Isn't it in everybody's best interest to get him locked up to a reasonable (and tradeable) deal? If prospects mature and make him expendable or if some team comes and makes Murray a fantastic offer for him, that's one thing. But why would we want him to hold out?

 

[Sabretip]

1) Reinhart makes the team

2) the foliowing is the top 6

Mouslon/Ennis/Stafford
Hodgson/Girgs/Stewart


That leaves 10 more forwards; Reinhart, Gionta, Foligno, Deslaurier, Flynn, Mitchell, McCormick, Kaleta, Larsson and Ellis looking to fill the last 8 spots on the roster (6 bottom six spots and the 2 extra forwards).

From the sounds of it, I think it's safe to say that Reinhart may be ready to play on one of the top two lines - and with vets like Moulson and Gionta to tutor him on the ice, it makes sense. Girgensons has the makings of a solid checking forward but more in the 3rd line role than in an offensive top 6 position IMO.

Obviously this can change between now and camp. But assuming things stay as they are, what are the chances Larsson is one of the two (I'm assuming Elis is going back) that ends up in Rochester to start the season?

This thought about Larsson popped into my head because he is still exempt from waivers. Whereas other young guys battling for spots like Deslaurier and Flynn are not. Obviously those two and someone like Kaleta could get sent down instead.

To me, Larsson should be in Buffalo - even if it means Deslaurier and Flynn get demoted. He combines the physical grit and pestiness of Deslaurier with the skating and penalty-killing of Flynn, plus he showed to be pretty capable on face-offs.

My 4th line is set.

Deslaurier-McCormick-Kaleta


I'm sending Ellis and Mitchell down to Rochester (Or traded in Mitchells case)

3rd line i have ..

Foligno -Reinhart- Stewart

Gionta would be in top six.

I'd have Flynn as a extra forward.

I'd keep Larsson in Rochester to start anyways.

Moulson-Reinhart-Gionta
Hodgson-Ennis-Stafford
Foligno-Girgensons-Stewart
McCormick-Larsson-Kaleta

 

[Namejs]

From the sounds of it, I think it's safe to say that Reinhart may be ready to play on one of the top two lines - and with vets like Moulson and Gionta to tutor him on the ice, it makes sense. Girgensons has the makings of a solid checking forward but more in the 3rd line role than in an offensive top 6 position IMO.

To me, Larsson should be in Buffalo - even if it means Deslaurier and Flynn get demoted. He combines the physical grit and pestiness of Deslaurier with the skating and penalty-killing of Flynn, plus he showed to be pretty capable on face-offs.

Moulson-Reinhart-Gionta
Hodgson-Ennis-Stafford
Foligno-Girgensons-Stewart
McCormick-Larsson-Kaleta

It's definitely not 'safe' to say that Reinhart will play on one of the top lines. It's just a guess at this point, even though I do agree with it.

Reinhart could easily be limited to <10 games in the NHL this season, depending on how he does in the camp and in his first few games. That is a possibility as well.

Also - Girgensons doesn't fit the mold of a bona fide checking forward. On a scale from Linus Omark (1) to Steve Ott (10), Girgs is probably a 7 or an 8. Foligno is likely a 10.

And it is not a great idea to put all the big guys on the same line. That line would be quite pointless offensively and the top line would get destroyed physically. Nolan prefers a more balanced approach.

As for Larsson, he's a good, effective bottom 6 player and I hope he does make the team, but it doesn't seem too likely.

 

[Yatzhee]

This team was worst in the league last year. You don't suddenly start shipping out prospects just as they become NHL ready because there are too many bodies. There will be many opportunities in the coming years for guys to force their way into this lineup. If Larsson looks to be a third-line staple, there will be a spot in the lineup for him moving forward. If for whatever reason he doesn't pan out, then I see him being moved. This team hasn't collected a bunch of prospects these last few years not to give them a fair shot to prove they can be a part of the future.

The only way good, young assets get moved before getting their shot would be part of a package to bring a quality young player here (ala Evander Kane). In the case of Larsson, he's not going to be much help in landing a fish that big.

I think the kid gets a lot of time in Buffalo this year to prove himself, and based on the 20-odd times I watched him in Rochester last year, I think he'll do just that. Someone earlier mentioned him being a pesky version of Hecht, and while not entirely accurate, there are many similarities. An annual 40-point LW/C that can move between the top and bottom six and between positions is a good asset to have. (Edmonton would kill to have quality depth to play with their top-tier talent.)

I'm not advocating that he will be moved, nor his worth alone achieves a big net gain in return, merely that it's a possibility.

As to your point about not moving these kids, your wrong, dead wrong. These kids are assets my friend, and the pipe line doesn't magically stop getting filled because we've assembled them, the draft, dead line and other moves throughout the seasons come every year. It's a simple matter of mathematics, we do not have enough space for all of the available talent that is jockeying in to position in the next 12 to 14 months, moves are coming, don't be fooled to think other wise.

We will have that period of time to see who is what and where in their development process, but the end goal is to better the product on the ice with the big club, it is not to see how many components we can hang on to.

 

[Der Jaeger]

I'm not advocating that he will be moved, nor his worth alone achieves a big net gain in return, merely that it's a possibility.

As to your point about not moving these kids, your wrong, dead wrong. These kids are assets my friend, and the pipe line doesn't magically stop getting filled because we've assembled them, the draft, dead line and other moves throughout the seasons come every year. It's a simple matter of mathematics, we do not have enough space for all of the available talent that is jockeying in to position in the next 12 to 14 months, moves are coming, don't be fooled to think other wise.

We will have that period of time to see who is what and where in their development process, but the end goal is to better the product on the ice with the big club, it is not to see how many components we can hang on to.

How about letting the prospect develop and compete for spots instead of shipping them out prematurely? And all the prospects aren't going to pan out. No need to shape the 14 forward spots.

 

[Yatzhee]

How about letting the prospect develop and compete for spots instead of shipping them out prematurely? And all the prospects aren't going to pan out. No need to shape the 14 forward spots.

Let's review what we do know, so you can see where my line of thought is coming from.

1. Murray has stated a rebuild need not take 4 years.
2. The collection of assets through the trades and drafts have brought a wealth of potential to the Sabres talent pile line. From high school on up to the big clubs roster itself you will see youth doing what youth does, develop. And that development is on going.
3. The amount of talent amassed far out numbers the amount of available slots with the big club, some will end up no more than AHL roster talent, but as the next draft approaches it is more than obvious the Buffalo Sabres have some very good NHL caliber talent through out it's organizational depth, from juniors on. Not all will be with the big club in the end.
4. The 12 to 14 month window I am looking at is based on the talent that was garnered early on in the tear down process, many of those players are coming in to their own in the AHL and/or the big club. I don't believe it's unreasonable for Nolan to see who has hunger and who doesn't for those players that have had time to develop in the pro's for a bit. Remember, there is more youth continuing to develop and grow, both in age as well as experience within the game itself.
5. Which brings me to Larsson, I personally see nothing special he brings to the club that dictates he has shown the hunger I speak of. He does "Ok" in the AHL, but I'll error on the side of caution and say "Ok" doesn't get it done with this organization knowing what we know on the amassed talent that is progressing.
6. Does he fill a need? For now, sure. I would imagine that 12 to 14 month window I speak on is plenty of time for Murray/Nolan and company to assess whether he has progressed further or whether he's not going to cut it on an NHL roster.
7. Is Larsson a unique talent? Not at all, but, he has the ability to be added to a trade package that may push a deal through and bring in something we do need. It's plausible if he doesn't quite make the grade for the Sabres roster, another team could see him as an addition to their AHL roster and he may want to move on if he can't crack the line up here.

As I said early on, it's not that I'm stating he should or will get moved, but Larsson is on the bubble as far as I can tell given his amount of time to show something. Let's see how he does this season, either in the A or with the big club, but if a trade is there where he's a component, I don't hesitate if I'm Murray. So far, as I said, from what I've seen, there are players coming up that may show more hunger than what I've seen from Larsson so far.

Of course, this is just an opinion of mine, but hey, like I said, some players we've collected are getting moved most likely, there is no logical reason to hang on to every player we've collected if it is in an attempt to better the team over all and that is what I see Murray and Co. doing, attempting to better the team over all.

 

[Revelate]

Girgensons has the makings of a solid checking forward but more in the 3rd line role than in an offensive top 6 position IMO.

While I agree about this in the future, i don't think it's the way it has to be now. Girgs is capable of playing "top 6" minutes without hurting his development. It may not be the best way for the team to win, but that's not really what this season is about. I like the idea of Reinhart on a sheltered third line.

Agreed on Larsson too, but not sure if it will happen.

 

[Revelate]

5. Which brings me to Larsson, I personally see nothing special he brings to the club that dictates he has shown the hunger I speak of. He does "Ok" in the AHL, but I'll error on the side of caution and say "Ok" doesn't get it done with this organization knowing what we know on the amassed talent that is progressing.
6. Does he fill a need? For now, sure. I would imagine that 12 to 14 month window I speak on is plenty of time for Murray/Nolan and company to assess whether he has progressed further or whether he's not going to cut it on an NHL roster.
7. Is Larsson a unique talent? Not at all, but, he has the ability to be added to a trade package that may push a deal through and bring in something we do need. It's plausible if he doesn't quite make the grade for the Sabres roster, another team could see him as an addition to their AHL roster and he may want to move on if he can't crack the line up here.

As I said early on, it's not that I'm stating he should or will get moved, but Larsson is on the bubble as far as I can tell given his amount of time to show something. Let's see how he does this season, either in the A or with the big club, but if a trade is there where he's a component, I don't hesitate if I'm Murray. So far, as I said, from what I've seen, there are players coming up that may show more hunger than what I've seen from Larsson so far.

I don't have a problem with you logic necessarily, but I disagree with your assessment of Larsson. "Hunger" is one of his best attributes IMO. Also, i do think he will be a unique talent. Ask St. Louis how easy it was to replace Sobotka when he was out. I think he has that ability. It's a possession league now and few prospects in our system have the ability to keep the puck in the zone like Larsson. I do agree that it's approaching a put-up or shutup year for him. He's getting old for a prospect.

 

[VanekFanatic26]

I agree. If he doesn't make this team, what other forward corps would be in need of Luke Adam? I don't think he's done anything to become more valuable after the end of camp last year - he didn't do anything at the NHL level yet again. At this point in his career he looks like he'll be a Keith Aucoin-type.

Not a whole lot you can do when you're averaging 12.7 TOI per 60 minutes. Limited time on ice and amount of games leads to a small sample size, but in 12 games in the NHL last year, Adam had just one goal, but was a +6.2 in Corsi Rel. The book on him in Rochester is that he's completely reformed his game to be a better two-way player, and his possession stats from last year show that.

 

[VanekFanatic26]

It's definitely not 'safe' to say that Reinhart will play on one of the top lines. It's just a guess at this point, even though I do agree with it.

Reinhart could easily be limited to <10 games in the NHL this season, depending on how he does in the camp and in his first few games. That is a possibility as well.

Also - Girgensons doesn't fit the mold of a bona fide checking forward. On a scale from Linus Omark (1) to Steve Ott (10), Girgs is probably a 7 or an 8. Foligno is likely a 10.

And it is not a great idea to put all the big guys on the same line. That line would be quite pointless offensively and the top line would get destroyed physically. Nolan prefers a more balanced approach.

As for Larsson, he's a good, effective bottom 6 player and I hope he does make the team, but it doesn't seem too likely.

If we know Nolan, Reinhart definitely won't be starting out in the top 6.

 

[Shoey]

I think Zemgus Girgensons projects to be a top 6 player.

Ted Nolan gave the kid basically no powerplay time last year, all 22 of his points came at 5 on 5 or short handed. For a 19 year old in the NHL this is absolutely fantastic production considering the black hole that is the Buffalo Sabres from a possession and quality of teammate point of view. I think if Zemgus was on a better team and received powerplay time that his numbers would have easily eclipsed 40 points last season and been a Calder trophy finalist.

Kid's pretty good you guys.

 

[Zman5778]

I think Zemgus Girgensons projects to be a top 6 player.

Ted Nolan gave the kid basically no powerplay time last year, all 22 of his points came at 5 on 5 or short handed. For a 19 year old in the NHL this is absolutely fantastic production considering the black hole that is the Buffalo Sabres from a possession and quality of teammate point of view. I think if Zemgus was on a better team and received powerplay time that his numbers would have easily eclipsed 40 points last season and been a Calder trophy finalist.

Kid's pretty good you guys.

Sometimes I forget that the kid just turned 20 and has a couple years of development left......

 

[VanekFanatic26]

Can we take a moment to talk about how our eventually center lineup could be McDavid, Reinhart, Girgensons, Larsson? Holy ****.

Also, if Larsson's ceiling is 3rd line, I think that's OK.