What “Common Wisdom” Do You Doubt or Disagree With?

[x Tame Impala]

Wait a moment - did you just say it's a "statistical lie" to say a thing can happen, because that thing actually happened only once in a sample size of 12 instances? It seems to me that you inadvertently proved that anything can indeed happen. Because it did.

Semantics and/or poor word choice on my part. It’s a statistical rarity that doesn’t happen nearly enough to justify the “anything can happen if you make it in” mantra

 

[Ratatoskr]

Semantics and/or poor word choice on my part. It’s a statistical rarity that doesn’t happen nearly enough to justify the “anything can happen if you make it in” mantra

Thank you for the clarification.

I would disagree with you and claim that the Stanley Cup playoffs are sufficiently unpredictable, and upsets frequent enough, to justify saying that "anything can happen".

Here's the regular season results of all SC winners since the lockout:

2019 St. Louis - 3rd in the Division, 5th in the conference
2018 Washington - Won Division, 3rd in the conference
2017 Pittsburgh - 2nd in the Division, 2nd in the conference
2016 Pittsburgh - 2nd in the Division, 2nd in the conference
2015 Chicago - 3rd in the Division, 4th in the conference
2014 L.A. - 3rd in the Division, 6th in the conference
2013 Chicago - 1st in the conference, President's Trophy
2012 L.A. - 8th in the conference
2011 Boston - 3rd in the conference
2010 Chicago - 2nd in the conference
2009 Pittsburgh - 4th in the conference
2008 Detroit - 1st in the conference, President's Trophy
2007 Anaheim - 2nd in the conference
2006 Carolina - 2nd in the conference

Are better regular season teams more likely to do well in the playoffs? Well, obviously. But are the regular season results of the subsequent SC champions diverse enough for the "anything can happen" shorthand to be permissible? Yes, IMHO.

 

[x Tame Impala]

Thank you for the clarification.

I would disagree with you and claim that the Stanley Cup playoffs are sufficiently unpredictable, and upsets frequent enough, to justify saying that "anything can happen".

Here's the regular season results of all SC winners since the lockout:

2019 St. Louis - 3rd in the Division, 5th in the conference
2018 Washington - Won Division, 3rd in the conference
2017 Pittsburgh - 2nd in the Division, 2nd in the conference
2016 Pittsburgh - 2nd in the Division, 2nd in the conference
2015 Chicago - 3rd in the Division, 4th in the conference
2014 L.A. - 3rd in the Division, 6th in the conference
2013 Chicago - 1st in the conference, President's Trophy
2012 L.A. - 8th in the conference
2011 Boston - 3rd in the conference
2010 Chicago - 2nd in the conference
2009 Pittsburgh - 4th in the conference
2008 Detroit - 1st in the conference, President's Trophy
2007 Anaheim - 2nd in the conference
2006 Carolina - 2nd in the conference

Are better regular season teams more likely to do well in the playoffs? Well, obviously. But are the regular season results of the subsequent SC champions diverse enough for the "anything can happen" shorthand to be permissible? Yes, IMHO.

No. A #7 or #8 seed, which is a wild card seed in today's format i.e. teams that squeak into the playofs, has made it to the Stanley Cup finals 3 times if you go all the way back to the 05 lockout and won it once. The #8 Oilers lost to the #2 Canes, the #7 Flyers lost to the #2 Hawks, and the #8 Kings beat the #6 Devils.

So in 14 Stanley Cup Finals matchups featuring 28 teams, there's been a #7/#8 seed playing in the series 3/28 times and we've seen a winner once in 14 years. If you like those odds then more power to you but I think it's total hyperbole for fans, players and especially GM's making trade deadline decisions to think that just because you make it in you have a real shot. It almost never happens.

 

[Ratatoskr]

No. A #7 or #8 seed, which is a wild card seed in today's format i.e. teams that squeak into the playofs, has made it to the Stanley Cup finals 3 times if you go all the way back to the 05 lockout and won it once. The #8 Oilers lost to the #2 Canes, the #7 Flyers lost to the #2 Hawks, and the #8 Kings beat the #6 Devils.

So in 14 Stanley Cup Finals matchups featuring 28 teams, there's been a #7/#8 seed playing in the series 3/28 times and we've seen a winner once in 14 years. If you like those odds then more power to you but I think it's total hyperbole for fans, players and especially GM's making trade deadline decisions to think that just because you make it in you have a real shot. It almost never happens.

Well, this is a matter of personal perception that will not resolved argumentively, But I would indeed consider 1/14 or 3/28 to be decent odds. In fact, if I were to design the perfect sports league from scratch, I would aim for borderline playoff teams going all the way to be an unlikely but not ultra-rare, once-in-a-lifetime type occurrence - which we pretty much do have.

 

[x Tame Impala]

Well, this is a matter of personal perception that will not resolved argumentively, But I would indeed consider 1/14 or 3/28 to be decent odds. In fact, if I were to design the perfect sports league from scratch, I would aim for borderline playoff teams going all the way to be an unlikely but not ultra-rare, once-in-a-lifetime type occurrence - which we pretty much do have.

To each their own