Speculation: What’s wrong with this team?

[KW]

I think if there are some players that don't fit the identity, then they need to be shipped out. I believe in Zito and Maurice's direction. We need to become harder to play against and have different ways we can score in the playoffs. Playoff hockey is tighter, more physical, more grinding. They need to get used to playing that way to have success in the postseason.

I agree … except I don’t think they’re playing tighter, more physical, more grinding playoff hockey. Maybe they think they are and the coach thinks they at least will, eventually, but I don’t see it happening yet.

 

[austropanther]

I think if there are some players that don't fit the identity, then they need to be shipped out. I believe in Zito and Maurice's direction. We need to become harder to play against and have different ways we can score in the playoffs. Playoff hockey is tighter, more physical, more grinding. They need to get used to playing that way to have success in the postseason.

I agree with your assessment that it is the GM's job to find the right guys for the system the coach wants to play, and that this team needs to learn to add intensity once the POs start. But does it make sense to you that we should change our record breaking team of last year just so they fit better into PoMo's system?

It was not necessarely our playing style/system that cost us against TB, even though our ES scoring dried up against the best defensive team in the league and the best goalie. It was our special teams and giving up backbreaking goals at the worst time that broke our backs, plus inexperience.

 

[Dread Clawz]

Dont see it like you, the Beginning and coming into a Season is always important and eastern conference is getting tough our own Division, is for me current the toughest you can play or face.
Buffalo infront of us 3 Games less +21 Detroit after 2 years good rebuild getting stronger and stronger, stability is amost. To get into the PO we must beat everyone infront of us from the current standing.
And lets say today they can proof how good they are back to back against metropolitan Division Leader, will definetly show another .500% results.

But to proof your system works in the PO you must reach the PO and this start sorry middle of the Season nearly doesnt show me anything we will reach that Point. With the current System cause the adjustment took to long.
"In our best Time and winning regular Season Trophies" we adjusted in 15-25 Games that window you have otherwise you run against Windmill, till the end of the Season.

Also yesterday PK work baddest PP Team in the NHL scores twice against us in PP. Adjustments or still in process?
I asked me on the 2nd Goal from Montreal how should one Defender handle two Forwards infront of the own Net. Only cause the 2nd Defensman jumped out on the Forward on the Board Side. Maybe bad play from the Player or when it was the new System something, someone could explain me better. For my Person 2on1 infront net is always a lost.

For my personal opinion i was also against Giroux trade, since it was this last year chance trade. No one needed, we had enough offensive Power. And there was other option then Chiarot on the market for a trade. What also brought up new defensive pairings near the end of the Season. That thing i will not or never understand. Well working defensive Pairings is hard to get and need years to figure each other perfect out and before you wanna climb a difficult Mountain you switch your climbing Partner.
But yes that was terrible trades, Giroux maybe with his personal PO preformance not. But the bigger result is, we have cap Issue, that problem was known before could happen and you have nothing to work with it now.
And for bigger contracts you need atleast a 2nd round pick for heavy heavy duties a 1st in return.
And next Season wont be better then this Season, 1 Million Cap raise at maximum.

We are already 2,2 Million over the Cap 8,3 Million on LTIR, 2 RFA next Season, mostly you loose 6 UFA Players to about cap situation, oh that would include loosing Gudas next Season. I hope we have something up next Season to take his place.

The overall cap Situation and only have 1 Year more before the thing going really worse. I dont know.
23-24 running our contracts, Reinhardt, Montour, Forsling. Lundell and Lustorainen RFA years.
The Problem is not the MainCore is 26-27, the main Problem will be how much talent you can hold year after year while the Cap is stock and you dont have space to work with or anything else to work with. no 1st round Pick for 23,24,25 is heavy no one knowed what happend but no its a slap in the face. with steady cap and already reaching the max cap, you will loose skilled and expierenced player year after year after year. about the Cap Issue and thats why you have current a window.
Dont see where the bigger talents are coming from Minor or depth player come from the Minor.
Sorry this both trades maybe doesnt looked like a mess in the past. But the future doesnt look bright when you face year over year bigger problems, in the Cap department and reach enough Players.

The definition of insanity is repeating the same mistakes over and over again and expecting different results. We lost to Tampa 2 years in a row playing the same style. So you really think we would finally do it the 3rd time, this season with a lesser roster? We had to change the way we play. There's no point getting to the playoffs if your game is not built to win in the playoffs.

Our cap situation is fine for next season. I'm not particularly concerned if we lose Gudas or not. He's a 3rd pairing guy who declines a little bit each year.

In 23-24 we can run something like:

Swaggy- Barky-Tkachuk
Duke-Lundell-Reinhart
Luosty-Bennett- X (1.75 )
Lombo-Staal-Cousins
Deni/Hepo (1.1 M)

X can be White or another free agent.

Forsling-Ek
Gavrikov/Graves/Mayfield(5 M)-Montour
Mahura (1.2M)- Braun/Van Riemsdyk (1.5)
Kiersted

That roster is under 83.5 M, and it's good enough to make the playoffs.

For 24-25, first of all the cap should be going up several million that season. But even if it doesn't, Bob will be gone. Either by buyout or trade. So we will have no problem re-signing anyone as Bob leaving frees up several million. The only internal FA who will get a significant raise is Lundell that year. Reino, Monty, and Bennett aren't going to get significant raises on what they are making now. We could also let Duke go and replace him with Samoskevich or Sourdif if they are ready by then.

Also, further down the line, I don't think it's unreasonable to expect 3 or 4 NHLers out of this group:

Nause
Ludvig
Alscher
Jansson
Kinnunen
Gildon
Benning
Hutsko
Vilmanis
Davies
Arnsby
Devine

 

[Dread Clawz]

I agree … except I don’t think they’re playing tighter, more physical, more grinding playoff hockey. Maybe they think they are and the coach thinks they at least will, eventually, but I don’t see it happening yet.

They were a little bit earlier in the season. They played pretty well last night. It's gonna be a process.

 

[Dread Clawz]

I agree with your assessment that it is the GM's job to find the right guys for the system the coach wants to play, and that this team needs to learn to add intensity once the POs start. But does it make sense to you that we should change our record breaking team of last year just so they fit better into PoMo's system?

It was not necessarely our playing style/system that cost us against TB, even though our ES scoring dried up against the best defensive team in the league and the best goalie. It was our special teams and giving up backbreaking goals at the worst time that broke our backs, plus inexperience.

Yes it makes sense to me, because our regular season record didn't help us in the playoffs. We barely got by Washington, and we got totally curbstomped by Tampa. Regular season is one thing, the playoffs are something else entirely.

Giving up goals at the worst times in the playoffs is a sign that you are not playing the right style in the playoffs. You can't keep lamenting that if only you didn't give up critical goals at critical times in the playoffs, things might have been different, for 5 or so years in a row. Nobody is going to care. Something had to change. It wasn't just lack of goals either, we barely generated any quality chances against Tampa. They didn't let us get to the net front, and on the other side of the ice they scored most of their goals right in front of our net. I agree that our special teams didn't help though.

 

[austropanther]

Yes it makes sense to me, because our regular season record didn't help us in the playoffs. We barely got by Washington, and we got totally curbstomped by Tampa. Regular season is one thing, the playoffs are something else entirely.

Giving up goals at the worst times in the playoffs is a sign that you are not playing the right style in the playoffs. You can't keep lamenting that if only you didn't give up critical goals at critical times in the playoffs, things might have been different, for 5 or so years in a row. Nobody is going to care. Something had to change. It wasn't just lack of goals either, we barely generated any quality chances against Tampa. They didn't let us get to the net front, and on the other side of the ice they scored most of their goals right in front of our net. I agree that our special teams didn't help though.

Completely disagree. Nothing had to change for a team that finally after 20 years of misery plays hockey that matters. It was there only real PO experience for christ's sake. This team might never win a SC. But I want them to be a lock for the POs - right now they are as far as possible from that playingwise, but the last year's team was. We finally won a series. The positive trend was there - where is it now? First period against CAR and we are completely manhandled again, lucky to be only trailing by one... can't see much of this new PO style success hockey yet at all.

To be fair: not all is on PoMo

 

[Dr Beinfest]

The cost around the league for Chiarot was a 1st. It is what it is.

You cannot possibly have any information to back this statement up. We paid a 1st and we were in first place. Presumably that means it’s a potentially late first round pick. I highly doubt anyone else was offering a 1st.

 

[ShootIt]

This jekyll and Hyde performances are getting old.
Especially with a relatively healthy roster.

Add in Knight not showing any sign of improvement and we got an exciting team to watch.

 

[Dread Clawz]

Completely disagree. Nothing had to change for a team that finally after 20 years of misery plays hockey that matters. It was there only real PO experience for christ's sake. This team might never win a SC. But I want them to be a lock for the POs - right now they are as far as possible from that playingwise, but the last year's team was. We finally won a series. The positive trend was there - where is it now? First period against CAR and we are completely manhandled again, lucky to be only trailing by one... can't see much of this new PO style success hockey yet at all.

To be fair: not all is on PoMo

I'm not good with just making the playoffs. I need hope that we can win a Cup one day. I mean we waited 20 years(since 2000) for a team that just makes the playoffs and wins a round every other year? Nah, not me. Yeah, they sucked tonight, but Carolina is a top team and it was the tail of a b2b. It's not an excuse, but it happens sometimes. They looked like they were catching onto Maurice's systems earlier in the year, just have to hope with everyone healthy they can find some consistency before it's too late.

 

[Dread Clawz]

You cannot possibly have any information to back this statement up. We paid a 1st and we were in first place. Presumably that means it’s a potentially late first round pick. I highly doubt anyone else was offering a 1st.

That was the smoke around the league, and it's not like Zito paid a 1st just for the hell of it. Up until those 2 trades, he was usually the one robbing other GMs in trades, so I don't think he turned into a pumpkin overnight. The 2021 playoffs earned Chiarot several additional millions. He was in high demand.

 

[Dr Beinfest]

That was the smoke around the league, and it's not like Zito paid a 1st just for the hell of it. Up until those 2 trades, he was usually the one robbing other GMs in trades, so I don't think he turned into a pumpkin overnight. The 2021 playoffs earned Chiarot several additional millions. He was in high demand.

Ok and the point still stands. Montreal acquired a what was presumably a very late first round pick, and if they accepted that, it’s unlikely that presumably earlier picks were offered. Further, you have no evidence that any other first round picks were offered.

 

[Dread Clawz]

Ok and the point still stands. Montreal acquired a what was presumably a very late first round pick, and if they accepted that, it’s unlikely that presumably earlier picks were offered. Further, you have no evidence that any other first round picks were offered.

Or maybe they were, but they only offered protected 1sts. Maybe we were the only team offering an unprotected 1st. Nobody knows either way.

 

[Dr Beinfest]

Or maybe they were, but they only offered protected 1sts. Maybe we were the only team offering an unprotected 1st. Nobody knows either way.

Ok maybe yes. In the absence of evidence, you can’t go out there making claims that that was the going rate. In most cases, the best offer wins. It can be assumed that any offer was equal to or lesser than a late first. You can’t really evaluate the mode of thought from Montreal, just the same way I can’t say the other offers were a 2nd and B-rate prospect. So I don’t know why you’re seemingly defending the trade as what any other GM would have done - “the going rate.” We do in fact know it was a terrible deal and it was questioned immediately when it happened.

 

[Dread Clawz]

Ok maybe yes. In the absence of evidence, you can’t go out there making claims that that was the going rate. In most cases, the best offer wins. It can be assumed that any offer was equal to or lesser than a late first. You can’t really evaluate the mode of thought from Montreal, just the same way I can’t say the other offers were a 2nd and B-rate prospect. So I don’t know why you’re seemingly defending the trade as what any other GM would have done - “the going rate.” We do in fact know it was a terrible deal and it was questioned immediately when it happened.

Nobody knows what is offered by other teams in any trade. We can only always assume the winning GM made the best yet reasonable offer. If he was pushed into offering an unprotected 1st, then we can only assume that other teams were also offering a lot.

Some pundits really liked the deal for Florida too.

 

[Dr Beinfest]

Nobody knows what is offered by other teams in any trade. We can only always assume the winning GM made the best yet reasonable offer. If he was pushed into offering an unprotected 1st, then we can only assume that other teams were also offering a lot.

Some pundits really liked the deal for Florida too.

Pushed? No, you’re literally saying we can make assumptions that becuase he paid a price, others were willing to. You’re assuming he was pressured. You’re making all sorts of assumptions. In the absence of evidence, you can’t make any statement whatsoever about another offer even existing, let alone go out there and say he was pressured.

As for “some pundits,” that sounds a heck of a lot like some reach to anonymous authority. There’s a whole thread of opinions going back and forth. Confirmed Trade: - [FLA/MTL] Ben Chiarot (50%) for 2023 1st round pick, 2022 4th round pick, and Ty Smilanic

The immediate response from most fans was either a) overpayment but good for Florida or b) lol Florida is dumb. And yes, I value equally the overall opinion of HFBoards from some random pundit who is right or wrong just as frequently as this forum is as a whole.

 

[Dread Clawz]

Pushed? No, you’re literally saying we can make assumptions that becuase he paid a price, others were willing to. You’re assuming he was pressured. You’re making all sorts of assumptions. In the absence of evidence, you can’t make any statement whatsoever about another offer even existing, let alone go out there and say he was pressured.

As for “some pundits,” that sounds a heck of a lot like some reach to anonymous authority. There’s a whole thread of opinions going back and forth. Confirmed Trade: - [FLA/MTL] Ben Chiarot (50%) for 2023 1st round pick, 2022 4th round pick, and Ty Smilanic

The immediate response from most fans was either a) overpayment but good for Florida or b) lol Florida is dumb. And yes, I value equally the overall opinion of HFBoards from some random pundit who is right or wrong just as frequently as this forum is as a whole.

Your assumption that there were no other offers and Zito gave Montreal an unprotected 1st just for the heck of it is just as valid as my assumption that Zito had to beat out other good offers.

The weight I give to HF posters' opinions, especially on the trade forums, wouldn't hold down the papers on my desk right now. At least pundits on TV are around the game and might have some info that most others don't.

 

[scholl]

I agree with your assessment that it is the GM's job to find the right guys for the system the coach wants to play, and that this team needs to learn to add intensity once the POs start. But does it make sense to you that we should change our record breaking team of last year just so they fit better into PoMo's system?

It was not necessarely our playing style/system that cost us against TB, even though our ES scoring dried up against the best defensive team in the league and the best goalie. It was our special teams and giving up backbreaking goals at the worst time that broke our backs, plus inexperience.

Exactly. Coach should fit the Florida style, not the other way around. Any competent coach can adjust his playbook to tighter, tougher playoff hockey. The biggest problem last season was that the team was often behind early in the game. In playoffs they couldn't do what they did in the regular season and score bunch of goals in third periods. As you mentioned, the team was inexperienced, maybe even nervous and made some massive mistakes.

 

[Dr Beinfest]

Your assumption that there were no other offers and Zito gave Montreal an unprotected 1st just for the heck of it is just as valid as my assumption that Zito had to beat out other good offers.

The weight I give to HF posters' opinions, especially on the trade forums, wouldn't hold down the papers on my desk right now. At least pundits on TV are around the game and might have some info that most others don't.

What posts are you reading? Where did you infer that was my assumption? I have clearly and repeatedly stated that in the absence of evidence, you can’t just go making random assumptions up. I did say you can safely assume the best offer was accepted, since that doesn’t really require any speculation (which of course isn’t always the case, some GMs are dumb or sometimes they do other GMs or their players a favor). You can’t safely assume other offers were in the same range as Florida’s, since literally no proof of that exists. Speculate all you want, it’s not like you’re automatically wrong for speculation.

 

[scholl]

That was the smoke around the league, and it's not like Zito paid a 1st just for the hell of it. Up until those 2 trades, he was usually the one robbing other GMs in trades, so I don't think he turned into a pumpkin overnight. The 2021 playoffs earned Chiarot several additional millions. He was in high demand.

Cap situation in the league shows that several GMs don't know what they are doing. Honestly giving up any 1st round picks for rentals is the dumbest thing to do.

 

[letsgrowcactus]

Cap situation in the league shows that several GMs don't know what they are doing. Honestly giving up any 1st round picks for rentals is the dumbest thing to do.

There are some occasions when a 1st for a rental can be justified, but those are typically when a) it's sort of an audition to potentially re-sign the player (which it wasn't; we knew right away there won't be the cap space for it) or b) if you're a serious contender with plenty of playoff experience under your belt (which, again, we weren't).
We were a team with poor prospect pool, about to have no cap space, with very little playoff experience and with an interim coach in his first year, who Zito apparently didn't trust, otherwise he'd still be here. And yet we gave up a fortune on TDL for Chiarot and Giroux. It looked bad then and it's worse now.

 

[Dread Clawz]

What posts are you reading? Where did you infer that was my assumption? I have clearly and repeatedly stated that in the absence of evidence, you can’t just go making random assumptions up. I did say you can safely assume the best offer was accepted, since that doesn’t really require any speculation (which of course isn’t always the case, some GMs are dumb or sometimes they do other GMs or their players a favor). You can’t safely assume other offers were in the same range as Florida’s, since literally no proof of that exists. Speculate all you want, it’s not like you’re automatically wrong for speculation.

Ok so we don't know one way or the other. So Zito can't be criticized for making "a terrible trade".

Cap situation in the league shows that several GMs don't know what they are doing. Honestly giving up any 1st round picks for rentals is the dumbest thing to do.

So Tampa is dumb for winning 2 Cups in a row?

 

[Dr Beinfest]

Ok so we don't know one way or the other. So Zito can't be criticized for making "a terrible trade".

Holy jumping to conclusions, what in the world? He can’t be criticized for making an objectively bad trade because the realm of all possible outcomes contain select scenarios where other GMs may have wagered equal value? Sure, let’s go jump off a bridge, some others are thinking about doing it. Nobody can possibly criticize our objectively terrible decision, since others are talking about it.

 

[GermanPanther]

Swaggy- Barky-Tkachuk
Duke-Lundell-Reinhart
Luosty-Bennett- X (1.75 )
Lombo-Staal-Cousins
Deni/Hepo (1.1 M)

X can be White or another free agent.

Forsling-Ek
Gavrikov/Graves/Mayfield(5 M)-Montour
Mahura (1.2M)- Braun/Van Riemsdyk (1.5)
Kiersted

explain me short where your wanna include 4-5 new players with 5,336 Million rest in Cap with 2 RFA open. So lets say we loose another 2,3 million that opens 3 Million in Cap space.

For Roster
verhaege -Barkoc Tkachuk
duke-lundell-Reinhart
Luosty-bennet-White (arbitration rights)
Cousin-Lomberg - X

Defensman:
Ekblad-X
Forsling-Montour
Mahura(arbitration rights)-Kierstad

So 8 Million for a Top 4 Defensman. okay in that point you are right, that is enough. I oversaw the 5 Million Bonus Dead Cap from Yandle and Darling run out this Season. And that is the only thing i would do, and have cap open. But no excuses for what happend with the small roster.
Horny mostly known, duke was known, the Defensman adding had a great doing. Mahura surprising me. forsling and montour played well together.

24-25 is a complete different thing. Getting raises is something i would get in my mouth, when the Team preform that player with good game, doesnt see a better chance on a different Team.
make it easy, Duke reinhardt, Forsling, montour, lomberg, cousin, will all stay cause we play great and reached PO 3 concistent Years or on the track to that.
When we continue to play like current, and Carolina showed again where we are current. Then dont expect them to stay. All of them wanna play for a Cup and with what they show they get there chances elsewhere.

I wish and hope for this Franchise that player like Gildon Ludvig might take over spots the same way as Montour or Forsling or one of the draft from 22 make the Team till then.

Open Cap space means also new Player possible. but that for 2 Years. But dont guess about raising, when you dont see the right light in the End who attract Players, because the current way of changing show the wrong light.

By the Way from the changing culture point out and stats. the stats from last Season and this Season doesnt look much different. PK% near the same was only 35 better. PP 5% better last Season in, GF in a pace of 30 Goals less then last Year, Goals against in the Pace of 30-40 goals more then last Year.

So the changing i can see in game play(on Ice preformance), results and stats. None of them tells me we have the right one for it, it was a try but thats it.