West vs East records, Will there be a regression to cancel the difference?

[Habsfunk]

There's no doubt that the West is better than the East this year, but Ottawa and Buffalo really skew the stats. They're a combined 3-18-3 against the West, which makes the disparity far worse than it is without those two teams. The West would still have a better record, but not that much better.

Does anyone care to calculate what the records are without Ottawa and Buffalo?

 

[Bear of Bad News]

There's no doubt that the West is better than the East this year, but Ottawa and Buffalo really skew the stats. They're a combined 3-18-3 against the West, which makes the disparity far worse than it is without those two teams. The West would still have a better record, but not that much better.

Does anyone care to calculate what the records are without Ottawa and Buffalo?

If they're 3-18-3 against the West, then it sounds like you've already got the records without Ottawa and Buffalo.

The West has bad teams, too.

 

[Habsfunk]

If they're 3-18-3 against the West, then it sounds like you've already got the records without Ottawa and Buffalo.

The West has bad teams, too.

Not all losses are created equally these days. I was just hoping someone would know off hand if the Buffalo and Ottawa wins were in OT or not.

 

[DL44]

Not all losses are created equally these days. I was just hoping someone would know off hand if the Buffalo and Ottawa wins were in OT or not.

That was an easy check that took less than a min on ESPN.

The 3 wins:

Buf beat SJ and LA in a SO
Ott beat Pho in OT.

 

[OpethNJD]

All I care about in regards to east vs west is the stanley cup final. And I know the west won the last few cups but they haven't exactly run the east team out of the buildings

 

[DL44]

All I care about in regards to east vs west is the stanley cup final. And I know the west won the last few cups but they haven't exactly run the east team out of the buildings

There is no doubt that the best team to come out of the East is always comparable to the best to come outta the West at the end of the year.

This data just represents the overall strength differences throughout the conferences head-to head.

So people should rest assured we'll always get a solid final at the end of the yr...

 

[DL44]

Update

198/448 gms: 44% of the schedule done.

West: 123-53-22, 268 pts, 0.677, 62% W%
East: 75-96-27, 177 pts, 0.447, 38% W%

Since last update:
West: 20-10-5, 45pts, 0.643
East: 15-15-5, 35 pts, 0.500

The points are still gathering in the West, but at a slower rate, now a 91 pt difference.

============================

163/448 gms : 36% of the schedule
West: 103-43-17, 223 pts, 0.684 pt %, 63% W%
East: 60-81-22, 142 pts, 0.436 pt %, 37% W %
Pt Diff: 81 pts

138/448 gms: 31% of the schedule:
West : 86-38-14, 186 pts, 62% win%
East : 52-67-19, 123 pts, 38% win%
Pt Diff: 63 pts


121/448 gms: 27% of the schedule:
West : 76-33-12, 164 pts, 0.677 pt %, 63% winning%
East : 45-58-18, 108 pts, 0.446, 37% winning %
Pt diff: 56 pts

83/448 gms, 19% of the schedule:
West: 54-21-8, 116 pts, 0.699, 65% W%
East: 29-45-9, 67 pts, 0.404, 35% W%
Pt diff: 49 pts

 

[DL44]

East is Alive!

3-1-0 on Tues, dec 17
4-1-0 on Thur
0-0-1 on Fri
2-1-1 on Sat
1-0-0 on Sun
3-2-0 on Mon, dec 23

EAST is 13-5-2 Since the last update.. not bad at all.

 

[odin1981]

Wouldn't suprise me if at end of the year its a 55-45 split favoring the west at all.

 

[Bure All Day]

Wouldn't suprise me if at end of the year its a 55-45 split favoring the west at all.

this would greatly surprise me, considering how much of a disparity there was at the start.

 

[Garbage Goal]

The Flyers just came off of wins against several West teams (mostly Canadian) while only losing to Colorado in a *mostly* Western road trip. So that will probably help a bit. I think they went 3-1 or 4-1 against the West in that trip discounting the fact that a lot of them came from the shootout.

 

[DL44]

Since this isn't spurring any discussion, I'll just edit this post...

As of games thru Feb 2nd:

302/448 gms played: 67% of schedule

West: 167-97-38, 372 pts, 0.616 pt%, 55% W%
East: 135-129-38, 308 pts, 0.510 pt%, 45% W%
Pt Diff: 64 pts

Since last update:
W: 12-6-2, 26pts.
E: 8-9-3, 19pts.
60-40 split in games.

=======================
Jan 22, 2014, before the Chi-Det game is played today:

282/448 gms played: 63% of the schedule

West: 155-91-36, 346pts, 0.613 pt%, 55% W%
East: 127-120-35, 289pts, 0.512 pt%, 45% W%
Pt Diff: 57 pts

==================

265/448 gms: 59% of the schedule done.

West: 146-84-35, 327pts, 0.617, 55% W%
East: 119-115-31, 269pts, 0.508, 45% W%
Pt Diff: 58pts

ALREADY down to 55-45 split in wins... East has dominated for the last few weeks no question about it.

Since the last update:
East: 44-19-4
West: 23-31-13

East won 66% of the games since last update. On Fire.

============================

198/448 gms: 44% of the schedule done.

West: 123-53-22, 268 pts, 0.677, 62% W%
East: 75-96-27, 177 pts, 0.447, 38% W%
Pt Diff: 91 pts


163/448 gms : 36% of the schedule
West: 103-43-17, 223 pts, 0.684 pt %, 63% W%
East: 60-81-22, 142 pts, 0.436 pt %, 37% W %
Pt Diff: 81 pts

138/448 gms: 31% of the schedule:
West : 86-38-14, 186 pts, 62% win%
East : 52-67-19, 123 pts, 38% win%
Pt Diff: 63 pts


121/448 gms: 27% of the schedule:
West : 76-33-12, 164 pts, 0.677 pt %, 63% winning%
East : 45-58-18, 108 pts, 0.446, 37% winning %
Pt diff: 56 pts

83/448 gms, 19% of the schedule:
West: 54-21-8, 116 pts, 0.699, 65% W%
East: 29-45-9, 67 pts, 0.404, 35% W%
Pt diff: 49 pts

 

[MNNumbers]

Since this isn't spurring any discussion, I'll just edit this post...

As of games thru Feb 2nd:

302/448 gms played: 67% of schedule

West: 167-97-38, 372 pts, 0.616 pt%, 55% W%
East: 135-129-38, 308 pts, 0.510 pt%, 45% W%
Pt Diff: 64 pts

What's happening with this now?

 

[DL44]

353/448 games played: 77% of schedule

West: 190-119-44, 424 pts, 0.601 pt%, 54% W%
East: 163-145-45, 371 pts, 0.525 pt%, 45% W%
Pt Diff: 53 pts

Since last update at the 302 game mark (51gms):

West: 23-22-6, 52 pts, 45%
East: 28-16-7, 63 pts, 55%

East has continued to flip the script and has eaten up another 11 pts over the last 10% of the schedule.

This is quite fascinating. Simple regression... but what's behind it?
Is this a trend? Obviously this year it was extremely pronounced early on that prompted this thread.. but weird.

 

[Bear of Bad News]

Probably just random variations.

If I were forced to brainstorm a reason beyond that, could it be that West teams' travel schedules are catching up to them (my guess is that a hard travel schedule wears on you more in March than it does in October).

I'd really rather not pick something beyond randomness, however.

 

[DL44]

Probably just random variations.

If I were forced to brainstorm a reason beyond that, could it be that West teams' travel schedules are catching up to them (my guess is that a hard travel schedule wears on you more in March than it does in October).

I'd really rather not pick something beyond randomness, however.

I wonder if we saw a similar 1st half-vs-2nd difference back in the 09-10 season... the last time there was a compressed schedule... But that one only saw 18/82 games as East-West games... so any significant difference wouldn't of registered as it does now.

it might be a combination of 30/82 being East-West games + compressed schedule.

In a normal schedule, we may never see it this significant...

 

[DL44]

409/448 games played: 91% of the schedule.

West : 223-136-50, 496 pts, 0.606 pt%, 55% W%
East : 186-174-49, 421 pts, 0.515 pt%, 45% W%
Pt Diff: 75 pts


Since last update (56 games):
West: 33-17-6, 72 pts, 59% W%
East: 23-29-4, 50 pts, 41% W%

 

[hatterson]

http://www.shrpsports.com/nhl/stand.htm shows standings, including interconference records, at a specific date.

I chose Jan 15th because that's about half the season and it was simpler than trying to find a true half each year. Since the lockout here's the East vs. West records prior to Jan 15th and at the end of the season.

Year|East @ Jan 15|West @ Jan 15|West Pts adv|East @ end|West @ end|West pts adv|Change in 2nd half
05-06|59-50-16|66-44-15|13|71-62-17|79-52-19|18|W + 5
06-07|37-43-13|56-30-7|32|68-63-19|82-48-20|29|E + 3
07-08|34-43-13|54-28-6|36|67-67-16|83-53-14|30|E + 6
08-09|65-73-16|89-49-16|48|129-113-28|141-103-26|22|E + 26
09-10|72-75-17|92-53-19|42|115-118-37|155-87-28|71|W + 29
10-11|79-72-25|97-54-25|36|128-107-35|142-88-40|33|E + 3
11-12|82-60-25|85-57-25|6|134-99-37|136-93-41|8|W + 2

Interesting to note that in every year except 08-09 and 09-10 the records were very close (<6 points gap) between east and west post Jan 15th.

Also in the last compressed schedule year (09-10) although the west didn't keep up the same pace as the first half, they still dominated the East in the second half.

The cumulative points advantage the West has held in the first half of years is 213 points. The cumulative points advantage they've had the the end of years is 211 meaning the East has, in whole, actually performed 2 points better than the West in the 2nd half of seasons.

If we look at conference records (counting large advantages as a win, small as a tie) we see that in the first half the West has a 5-2 or 6-1 record (depending on if you want to call 13 large). However in the second half the record is even at 1-1-5.

 

[odin1981]

Wouldn't suprise me if at end of the year its a 55-45 split favoring the west at all.

You should listen to this guy he knows what he is talking about .

 

[DL44]

426/448 games played: 95% of the schedule.

West : 234-142-50, 518 pts, 0.608 pt%, 55% W%
East : 192-180-54, 438 pts, 0.514 pt%, 45% W%
Pt Diff: 80 pts


Since last update (17 games):
West: 11-6-0, 22 pts, 65% W%
East: 6-6-5, 17 pts, 35% W%


Final update in 22 games. But the overall numbers will not change... 55-45 split this season as odin1981 told us.


So with the playoff bars virtually equal despite the pt discrepancy, where are the extra 80ish points being hoarded?

In the top 7 - Western Conf has 46 more points there.
In the bottom 3 - Western Conference has 24 more points sitting there.
Then the East has 6 teams in their middle pack.. and the West 4... so ~10 more pts spread among the middle 4 western teams....

The middle classes of each conference are pretty equal.. which basically represents the Playoff bar.



=================================

409/448 games played: 91% of the schedule.

West : 223-136-50, 496 pts, 0.606 pt%, 55% W%
East : 186-174-49, 421 pts, 0.515 pt%, 45% W%
Pt Diff: 75 pts


Since last update (56 games):
West: 33-17-6, 72 pts, 59% W%
East: 23-29-4, 50 pts, 41% W%

 

[odin1981]

It would be much more interesting to guess if ties where still in the NHL. That would throw the variables a bit.

It was pretty plain to see the trend of early in the year being unsustainable. Granted there could be a +- of 2-3 % but coming to a number when there are only 2 results as long as you don't have a bias isn't that hard given how many games of data there is.