West vs East records, Will there be a regression to cancel the difference?

[youvegotit]

Can anyone post what the east-west record has been like in recent years leading up to this one?

Well last year their were 0 east-west games and the years prior the scheduling was such that there were far fewer east-west games (each team had 10 instead of the current 32 games for the west teams and 28 games for the east teams). Furthermore, teams only played in one cross conference division each year so they only played any given team from the other conference once every three years. Which makes it difficult to draw any conclusions given the small sample size.

I don't think the current format will continue very long as fans of teams in the West will be outraged when their team misses the playoffs whilst getting 100+ points when some team in the East makes it in with <90 points.

 

[cptjeff]

So then the easy confirmation of theory if the teams are indeed generally of equal quality would be:
Games in the East would slightly favor the East (your basic home ice advantage only)
Games in the West would greatly favor the West due to the factors you've listed.

Should be a VERY easy historical analysis for anyone who has access to those specific stats - use the last few decades or more of data to eliminate sample size too.. Unfortunately I don't.
or wouldn't this of historically effected the Stanley Finals as well?
(obviously not lately, since the NHL has recently gone with a flat 5pm EST start for all 7 games.. (brilliant move by the way - for consistency and ratings))

During the finals, both teams are on the same schedule, so the effect would be minimal.

 

[MISC*]

And this is why the top 16 teams should get in to the playoffs.

Pacific will have beast teams missing.

 

[Hammer Time]

What would be interesting would be to look for West vs. East records from 1981 onwards and seeing if there's been a consistent trend of the West winning more games.

If so, there's probably a bias towards western teams (maybe they're more used to travel and various start times?) in the scheduling itself. If it's only been the last few years, then it's probably just because the West has simply had the better teams in recent times.

 

[Master_Of_Districts]

What would be interesting would be to look for West vs. East records from 1981 onwards and seeing if there's been a consistent trend of the West winning more games.

If so, there's probably a bias towards western teams (maybe they're more used to travel and various start times?) in the scheduling itself. If it's only been the last few years, then it's probably just because the West has simply had the better teams in recent times.

East/Wales was generally better from 1981 - 1999. I have the data somewhere.

 

[TheJudge]

If the season were to end prior to todays games, there is only 1 eastern conference team that would have a playoff spot in the western conference - pittsburgh.

That's just insane imo.

 

[Hammer Time]

East/Wales was generally better from 1981 - 1999. I have the data somewhere.

Looking through NHL standings from the 80s, the Wales had a higher average point total than the Campbell every season 1982-1989. In other words, a majority of inter-conference matchups every season went to the Wales. And this despite the existence of an Edmonton dynasty.

In the 90s the conferences were about equal in quality, and only from 2000 onwards was the West dominant.

 

[danishh]

it looks considerably more even if you eliminate the senators, who simply blew on both a usa-pac road trip and then a 'western' homestand.

Ottawa is 1-6-2 vs the west this year.
and
Ottawa is 6-0-2 vs the east this year.

excluding the sens games,
West: 42-19-7, 91 pts
East: 26-41-7, 59 pts

still a 3:2 points advantage for the west, but not nearly as bad as it looks with ottawa in the picture.

 

[Kyle McMahon]

it looks considerably more even if you eliminate the senators, who simply blew on both a usa-pac road trip and then a 'western' homestand.

Ottawa is 1-6-2 vs the west this year.
and
Ottawa is 6-0-2 vs the east this year.

excluding the sens games,
West: 42-19-7, 91 pts
East: 26-41-7, 59 pts

still a 3:2 points advantage for the west, but not nearly as bad as it looks with ottawa in the picture.

But the same can be said for Edmonton, who is responsible for 25% of the East's wins over the West. The West is 33-4-4 against the Metro if you remove Edmonton. Beyond belief, really.

But as has been pointed out, the East/Wales was generally stronger for most of the 80's and 90's. That's why I don't buy the circadian rhythms argument as the explanation for Western superiority. The teams are just plain better. Defensive play still rules the day, and always has. Even in the high-flying 80's and early 90's, where you might suspect offense was the key to victory, the Wales produced better defensive teams in general and it led to a winning record against the Campbell.

 

[Starbuds]

The West is just making up for last year.

 

[TCL40]

I think there is another cycle that comes into play.

Sucking and getting several years worth of high draft picks.

Also, the East has a lot of truly awful teams this season but the West isn't superior to the top East teams. I think the Bruins have one loss and it was a 1 goal game to the Avalanche. Also, most of the Bruins games against West teams involved the Bruins playing the back half of a back to back with travel while their opponent was waiting in Boston. Bruins haven't played any West teams away yet.

 

[Kyle McMahon]

I think there is another cycle that comes into play.

Sucking and getting several years worth of high draft picks.

Also, the East has a lot of truly awful teams this season but the West isn't superior to the top East teams. I think the Bruins have one loss and it was a 1 goal game to the Avalanche. Also, most of the Bruins games against West teams involved the Bruins playing the back half of a back to back with travel while their opponent was waiting in Boston. Bruins haven't played any West teams away yet.

What, all two of them? The West could reasonably claim 8 of the top 10 teams in the NHL right now.

 

[Jagged Ice]

Where can one find current numbers of east vs. west to date?

 

[DL44]

Where can one find current numbers of east vs. west to date?

I've only done it manually.
On NHL.com you can break down the standings with "Vs East" and "Vs West".


121/448 Inter-conference games played : 27% of the schedule done.

West : 76-33-12, 164 pts, 0.677 pt %, 63% winning%
East : 45-58-18, 108 pts, 0.446, 37% winning %



Slight regression can be seen since last update after 19% of the schedule,

83 games/448
West: 54-21-8, 116 pts, 0.699 pt%, 65% W%
East: 29-45-9, 67 pts, 0.404 pt%, 35% W%

So since the last update (38 games) the conference records have been:

West: 22-12-4, 48 pts, 0.632 pt%, 59% W%
East : 16-13-9, 41 pts, 0.539 pt%, 41% W%


So the West still gained another 7 pts on the East over the last 38.


=================
EDIT:
as of the gm Nov 19th:

138 gms
West : 86-38-14, 186 pts, 62% win%
East : 52-67-19, 123 pts, 38% win%

63 more pts sitting in the West standings than the East

 

[Pominville Knows]

As of right now every single playoff team in the West has more points than the leader in the East. Now that is a stat!

 

[Patman]

Yeah, the gap is fairly wide, I think it'd be unlikely for it to fall back. I don't quite recall the past seasons (last season being noted) but I recall that the west was slightly stronger, generally.

 

[MNNumbers]

Yeah, the gap is fairly wide, I think it'd be unlikely for it to fall back. I don't quite recall the past seasons (last season being noted) but I recall that the west was slightly stronger, generally.

Agreed. Also, it is of note that the new schedule matrix makes for 67% more games between conferences (old = 30x18 or 540. new = 28x32 or 896) All those extra games means that if there is a difference in quality between east and west, it will show up MORE in the standings.

 

[DL44]

After the games of Dec 3rd:

163 gms played of 448.. 36% of the schedule

West: 103-43-17, 223 pts, 0.684 pt %, 63% W%
East: 60-81-22, 142 pts, 0.436 pt %, 37% W %

81 more points sitting in the West standings now.



Presently 81pts after 36% of the schedule.
Still expecting some regression... but didn't see any since the last update. West went 17-5-3.

-------------

Summary of the updates:


83/448 gms, 19% of the schedule:
West: 54-21-8, 116 pts, 0.699, 65% W%
East: 29-45-9, 67 pts, 0.404, 35% W%
Pt diff: 49 pts

121/448 gms: 27% of the schedule:
West : 76-33-12, 164 pts, 0.677 pt %, 63% winning%
East : 45-58-18, 108 pts, 0.446, 37% winning %
Pt diff: 56 pts

138/448 gms: 31% of the schedule:
West : 86-38-14, 186 pts, 62% win%
East : 52-67-19, 123 pts, 38% win%
Pt Diff: 63 pts

163/448 gms : 36% of the schedule
West: 103-43-17, 223 pts, 0.684 pt %, 63% W%
East: 60-81-22, 142 pts, 0.436 pt %, 37% W %
Pt Diff: 81 pts

 

[tarheelhockey]

Yeah, the gap is fairly wide, I think it'd be unlikely for it to fall back. I don't quite recall the past seasons (last season being noted) but I recall that the west was slightly stronger, generally.

I don't think it's a matter of closing the gap completely, but rather a matter of whether the pace will revert back to its historic trend.

This year has been bizarrely one-sided. I'm at a loss to explain it, even in terms of one conference being stronger than the other. Even right now, the West is on a 4-game win streak involving 8 different teams. It just seems to defy any kind of trend or pattern other than the conference split, especially when you consider the teams that switched conferences:

Team | Last Year | This Year
Columbus|24-17-7|3-5-0
Detroit|24-16-8|4-4-3
Winnipeg|24-21-3|7-2-1

^ These are the exact same teams playing the exact same opponents, only difference is the conference changed. How does that happen?

 

[DL44]

I don't think it's a matter of closing the gap completely, but rather a matter of whether the pace will revert back to its historic trend.

This year has been bizarrely one-sided. I'm at a loss to explain it, even in terms of one conference being stronger than the other. Even right now, the West is on a 4-game win streak involving 8 different teams. It just seems to defy any kind of trend or pattern other than the conference split, especially when you consider the teams that switched conferences:

Team | Last Year | This Year
Columbus|24-17-7|3-5-0
Detroit|24-16-8|4-4-3
Winnipeg|24-21-3|7-2-1

^ These are the exact same teams playing the exact same opponents, only difference is the conference changed. How does that happen?

Maybe the low level of travel lulls the eastern teams to a certain level that throws them off when they suddenly have a bigger trip and flight to do.
Maybe that's why TB has done ok vs the West.. being from florida, they're used to a little more travel than their eastern counterparts.. and they're a decent team.

Based on just that theory, the East should have superior record vs the Cen than the Pac. (a quick look at the standings, and that theory is blown outta the water... teams in the East have had quite a bit more success in general vs the Pac than they have vs the Cen)

And that still wouldn't explain losing as much as they do on home ice.

At the end of the day... it just simply seems to be a flat out difference in conference strength.

So now it's just a matter of observing and measuring what that difference is by yr's end..

 

[DL44]

the East is -81pts after 36% of the schedule.

On pace for:-225 with zero regression.

Let's guess a regression of some sort and be conservative and say it ends up to be a difference of 180 pts.. 180 more points in the West than the East at yr's end...

180 pts spread over 14 teams = 13 pts/team bonus. Higher end teams with more.. lower end teams with less... leaving the mid teams at the playoff bar with around +13...

are be able to guesstimate an approximate playoff bar with that number in mind??

if a typical yr the playoff bar is 92-95 pts... how will an additional 180 points in the conference skew the line?


Is it as simple as ~93 +/- ~13 pts to be the predicted playoff bar??
i.e a playoff bar in the East of around 80-83
and in the West around 105-108?

Is that what we are to expect this yr?

 

[Bear of Bad News]

One quick comment (without going into too much detail) - if we assume your conclusion that the West has 180 more points in it than the East at season's end, then (counting from the middle) it would be +90 for the West and -90 for the East.

I believe that you've got those doubled in your end result.

 

[DL44]

One quick comment (without going into too much detail) - if we assume your conclusion that the West has 180 more points in it than the East at season's end, then (counting from the middle) it would be +90 for the West and -90 for the East.

I believe that you've got those doubled in your end result.

THAT"S why it looked so bloody extreme to me... Thank you!

For a month or so I've been expecting a yr end of a West @ 100-102 and East of 88-90... was wondering why when i ran these numbers today it looked so extreme.

Ok, sooo the early prediction still looks reasonable then...
with the numbers above:

West around 98-102... East around 86-89

Should be noted...
+90 in the West = +6.4/team (14 teams)
-90 in the East = -5.6/ team (16)

So the East bar would theoretically not be as lowered as much as the West would be increased... if all was else was equal.

 

[Kale Makar]

the East is -81pts after 36% of the schedule.

On pace for:-225 with zero regression.

Let's guess a regression of some sort and be conservative and say it ends up to be a difference of 180 pts.. 180 more points in the West than the East at yr's end...

180 pts spread over 14 teams = 13 pts/team bonus. Higher end teams with more.. lower end teams with less... leaving the mid teams at the playoff bar with around +13...

are be able to guesstimate an approximate playoff bar with that number in mind??

if a typical yr the playoff bar is 92-95 pts... how will an additional 180 points in the conference skew the line?


Is it as simple as ~93 +/- ~13 pts to be the predicted playoff bar??
i.e a playoff bar in the East of around 80-83
and in the West around 105-108?

Is that what we are to expect this yr?

It could happen, but it is really a small chance... I mean, the highest point total any team has had and missed the playoffs is 95. The chance of that total being upped by maybe 2 or 3 points wouldn't be very unusual, all of those records are broken eventually. But it shouldn't change that drastically, going from 95 to 104+... That just shouldn't really happen.

 

[MNNumbers]

It could happen, but it is really a small chance... I mean, the highest point total any team has had and missed the playoffs is 95. The chance of that total being upped by maybe 2 or 3 points wouldn't be very unusual, all of those records are broken eventually. But it shouldn't change that drastically, going from 95 to 104+... That just shouldn't really happen.

My math would go like this:
Currently, approximately 25% of games are 3-pt games. Therefore, in every 4 games, 9 points are available. An even (.500) record would thus be 4.5pts/4games, or 1.11pts/gm.
1.11pts/gm = 91pts for a season.

If the west ends up with 180 more points than the east, then the west will be 90 pts total more than .500, and the east 90 pts less.

As in a prior post, that is 6.4 pts/team in the west, and 5.6 pts/team in the east.

Let's assume the last team into the playoffs in each conference is at exactly .500 BEFORE we account for the conference difference. Then, the last team in in the
WEST = 97 pts
EAST = 85 pts

Alternative version:
West - Van is currently the first team out. They average 1.17 pts/game, or 96 pts for a season.
East - Philadelphia and Carolina are currently first team out. Each averages 1.00 pts/gm, or 82 pts for a season.