West vs East records, Will there be a regression to cancel the difference?

[DL44]

The present discrepancy between the head-to-head machups isn't one i can recall ever being so one-sided.

We are generally through about 15% of the schedule and the difference looks quite astonishing to this point.

I love numbers and am one to follow trends for various stats so i'm in line with expectation on the regression to the mean. So i definitely don't think it will continue on the same present projection.

But the difference right now looks so... significant.

To what degree do the hardcore # guys feel we will see the regression?
i.e. all the way to general historical parity?
Or is there really something unique about the makeup of the conferences this year that will continue the with the discrepancy in play?

Is this another.. 'way too small of a sample size, nothing to see here' thing.. or something actually tangible?

West: 50-19-8, 108 pts
East: 27-41-9, 63 pts

Click to read more...

 

[Bear of Bad News]

What's the record at Western sites, and the record at Eastern sites?

(Stated differently - have more games been played at Western sites thus far?)

 

[DL44]

What's the record at Western sites, and the record at Eastern sites?

(Stated differently - have more games been played at Western sites thus far?)

I don't even know where to find the info broken down to that level.

But there are teams in both conferences that have made big swings to the other conference already... so i would assume that part is fairly balanced...

i.e. Col, Van, SJ, and Edm have all swung East on long roadies... and teams like Washington, NJD and the Rangers have swung West on their own long trips... and then everyone else in between.

But i can see how if the East has been travelling far more than the West for these game, it would help explain the discrepancy ..

 

[DL44]

I went thru the schedule manually (and missed one game).....

34 games in the West..
42 games in the East..

1 game missed somewhere along the line... but the the general point is seen.

Home ice edge slightly favors the East.

The record despite that, heavily favors the West. So that cancels that theory out a bit.

 

[Bear of Bad News]

Interesting - thanks!

I realize that I'm asking questions instead of giving answers (although hopefully the former lead to the latter). What percentage of the interconference schedule has been played so far?

(So if the East and West split the remaining games evenly, where would they stand?)

 

[Darth Joker]

The West really is significantly better this year. The west has more truly elite teams, and fewer hot garbage teams.

I don't think there's a huge difference between the mid-tier (5 through 10) teams of both conferences, but there is a big difference at the top and at the bottom.

So while I do think there will be some regression, it won't go all the way.

 

[tigervixxxen]

Wish I could link it but don't remember where I saw it that the West has won the head to head matchup for the last 12 years. So it is very likely that the West will win the series but I would expect the East to regress it back some. I wonder if the imbalance in the conferences is making a difference and West teams will play more games vs. the East. If the trend continues that the West has more good teams then they will all essentially end up playing an easier schedule than the East does.

 

[DL44]

Interesting - thanks!

I realize that I'm asking questions instead of giving answers (although hopefully the former lead to the latter). What percentage of the interconference schedule has been played so far?

(So if the East and West split the remaining games evenly, where would they stand?)

448 interconference games to be played.

77 (or 76) games have been played...

So actually 17% of the games have been completed..

Soooo..
175-175-21.. going forward for each conf in the remaining 371?...

Presently
(West: 50-19-8, 108 pts
East: 27-41-9, 63 pts)

 

[EVBetting Site]

There won't be a regression because we are already close to the mean. The West has been superior for nearly a decade now. There are simply better teams and better players in the West period. People think the best players play in the East because of scoring statistics, but the West, on average, is simply better period.

 

[Hammer Time]

The West has been stronger than the East in recent years, but a 63% win rate seems really high especially considering that the Wings just got "traded" for the Jets. Probably we'll see some regression and the year ends around a 55/45 split in favour of the West.

 

[wgknestrick]

It is pretty obvious to me that most of the West has embraced advanced stats when constructing their rosters, signing UFAs, drafting, etc. They value possession players who are generally positive career +- players. They also don't seem to have problems letting talented younger players play. (I am talking from a high level and I am aware that there may be single western team or player instances that contradict this)

This methodical way of thinking has filtered down to everything the western teams do. Strategies, coaching, drafting, UFA, etc. You are just seeing what happens when a majority of the teams follow a winning strategy compared to the eastern teams who still value (from a high level perspective again) fighters, "tough guys", agitators, veterans, grit, etc over what truly wins you hockey games.

Western teams are just mimicking CHI and DET and having success with it.

Eastern teams are trying to mimic BOS and PIT and realizing they may not have elite talents (Crosby, Chara, Malkin, Rask/Thomas) to rely on night after night while ignoring the bottom end of their rosters.

There has also been some major disappointments from a couple of teams in the East that aren't helping things. The Metro Division.

 

[Ollie Weeks]

What jumped out at me was that at this very moment, Western teams posses the top 4 records in the NHL, and the Eastern teams posses the worst 3 records, and if not for Edmonton, the worst 8.

 

[Ari91]

I think the West has more competitive teams than the East does so. I'd be surprised if it continued at the current pace but I do expect the West to finish more points against the East than vice versa.

 

[RewBicks]

Western teams are just mimicking CHI and DET and having success with it.

EGREGIOUS Chicago management trolling. Must have taken some serious statistical analysis to draft a core of Toews, Kane, Keith, Seabrook on a BPA basis over the course of years of suckage. And then to sign the best available FA (Hossa), who was coveted by every single team on the market, and was drawn to Chicago by the presence of the same players whom Chicago was capable of drafting due to those years of suckage.

 

[DL44]

I was thinking of maybe updating this weekly to follow the trend.

Present:

West: 54-21-8, 116 pts, 0.699
East: 29-45-9, 67 pts, 0.404

West has 63.3% of the points handed out, the East with 36.7%

83/448 gms played. 19% of the schedule.


Upcoming this week:

Leafs @ Flames : East: W
Wings @ Canucks : East: W

Ducks @ Bruins : East: W, West: OTL

Blues @ Panthers : West: W
Habs @ Wild : West: W
Wings @ Flames East : W

Ducks @ Sabres : West W
Blues @ Lightning : East W
Leafs @ Canucks : West W
Habs @ Avs : West W
Wings @ Oilers : East W

East wins the above week : 6-5-0, 12 pts
West : 5-5-1, 11pts
7/11 games played in the West. Wings with 3 road wins.

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

Leafs and Lightning doing their part.....a combined 10-2 vs the West.

 

[odin1981]

The atlantic division has more than done their part it is the metro that is sucking and bringing the w/l/otl record down.

 

[cptjeff]

The most convincing explanation I've heard is that it's systemic bias due to time shifts- due to biological rhythms, it's far easier to adjust going west to east than it is east to west, and players on western teams are more experienced at handling time shifts regardless. If it was really about a skill disparity, the effect would be nowhere near this consistent year to year, and you would expect to see the east on top some years, even if it was a long term trend. You'd see tremendous fluctuation year to year. But you don't, and the obvious conclusion from that is that there's an external factor at play. When West teams are playing in the east, the're playing earlier in the day than they're used to. When East teams are playing in the West, they're playing much later in the evening than they're used to.

 

[Puckstuff]

It should be division vs division not conference vs conference... and on these terms atlantic makes out very well, metro is a joke.

 

[habsfanatics*]

How many of those games saw the East/West playing games back to back?

 

[DL44]

The most convincing explanation I've heard is that it's systemic bias due to time shifts- due to biological rhythms, it's far easier to adjust going west to east than it is east to west, and players on western teams are more experienced at handling time shifts regardless. If it was really about a skill disparity, the effect would be nowhere near this consistent year to year, and you would expect to see the east on top some years, even if it was a long term trend. You'd see tremendous fluctuation year to year. But you don't, and the obvious conclusion from that is that there's an external factor at play. When West teams are playing in the east, the're playing earlier in the day than they're used to. When East teams are playing in the West, they're playing much later in the evening than they're used to.

So then the easy confirmation of theory if the teams are indeed generally of equal quality would be:
Games in the East would slightly favor the East (your basic home ice advantage only)
Games in the West would greatly favor the West due to the factors you've listed.

Should be a VERY easy historical analysis for anyone who has access to those specific stats - use the last few decades or more of data to eliminate sample size too.. Unfortunately I don't.
or wouldn't this of historically effected the Stanley Finals as well?
(obviously not lately, since the NHL has recently gone with a flat 5pm EST start for all 7 games.. (brilliant move by the way - for consistency and ratings))

 

[Era of Sanity]

Can anyone post what the east-west record has been like in recent years leading up to this one?

 

[Bryz4shiz]

Its interesting that the West has so consitently been better than the east considering they are the ones losing hours when they travel across the country.

 

[Chris Hansen]

EGREGIOUS Chicago management trolling. Must have taken some serious statistical analysis to draft a core of Toews, Kane, Keith, Seabrook on a BPA basis over the course of years of suckage. And then to sign the best available FA (Hossa), who was coveted by every single team on the market, and was drawn to Chicago by the presence of the same players whom Chicago was capable of drafting due to those years of suckage.

That's not untrue, but Chicago has filled out the rest of their roster with players that fit the "possession" bill.

 

[hawksfan79]

EGREGIOUS Chicago management trolling. Must have taken some serious statistical analysis to draft a core of Toews, Kane, Keith, Seabrook on a BPA basis over the course of years of suckage. And then to sign the best available FA (Hossa), who was coveted by every single team on the market, and was drawn to Chicago by the presence of the same players whom Chicago was capable of drafting due to those years of suckage.

Lucky to get Kane and Toews? Absolutely, but consider this:

Keith 2002 2nd round pick (54)
Seabrook 2003 1st round pick (14)
Wisniewski 2002 5th round pick (156)
Burish 2002 9th round pick (282)
Crawford 2003 2nd round pick (52)
Byfuglien 2003 8th round pick (245)
Barker 2004 1st round pick (3) TOTAL BUST
Bolland 2004 2nd round pick (32)
Bickell 2004 2nd round pick (41)
Brouwer 2004 7th round pick (214)
Skille 2005 1st round pick (7) TOTAL BUST
Hjalmarsson 2005 4th round pick (108)

This is all before Toews and then Kane, so they had building block pieces already established. Add in a few shrewd trades (Sharp and Versteeg), and FA signings (Havlat, Hossa, Campbell (albeit overpaid), Niemi). While Kane and Toews were the main driving factor, Hawks got a lot of help from non 1st round draft picks, I think you're selling them short.


As for the thread topic....

It really seems like this year the power is in the west, I expect the east to catch up a little bit, but there is a definite disparity in the relative strength of the conferences this year.