Blue Jays Discussion: Well, We're Down 3-2 In The Series. Jays in 7.

[The Nemesis]

Cool article. Phrased in a bit of an awkward manner though, I believe the quote you attributed to Donaldson actually comes from Jeff Sullivan. Their actual Donaldson quote in there states the opposite: "When you have guys behind you, they’re going to be more apt to make mistakes in the strike zone." Longoria says the same thing. And all of the pitchers interviewed say that they're more likely to pitch around guys when there's no one on first or they're not afraid of the guy on deck...except Baumgardner who says he doesn't out of pride, but thinks he's being stupid by not doing it.

Something's weird. The author's assertion here is that a hitter will hit just as well with or without protection but that he WILL walk more with protection. But even if that's true, if a hitter hits just as well regardless but also walks more, doesn't that make him more valuable?

The article says that Sullivan's findings corroborate the statement from Donaldson. He said both things in one large quote that was picked up for this piece and split. here it is in its original form:

Josh Donaldson, Blue Jays infielder: “I think it’s like this: If you’ve been around a little bit, people are going to pitch to you the way they’re going to pitch to you. But when you have guys behind you, they’re going to be more apt to make mistakes in the strike zone. They’re going to be more aggressive throwing strikes, but not more aggressive throwing fastballs. They’re going to throw their pitches, but they’re going to throw them more for strikes.â€

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/players-view-does-lineup-protection-exist/

As for the second part, the target of the argument isn't overall value in a way that includes all manners of getting on base. It's that changes in how a batter is attacked that can be attributed to lineup protection theories are said to lead to improved offensive production. That Donaldson will get more hits, more HRs, more runs, and more RBIs because the threat of Bautista/Encarnacion behind him give him more good pitches to hit. The evidence shows that at best he might get some more walks. But, as is said at the end of the piece:

"While walks are good for an offense, the idea of protection rests on the idea that the first of the two great hitters will receive better pitches to hit. In this regard, Tango suggests that lineup protection does not exist: protection "merely increases the ratio of walks to non-walks without significantly affecting how well the hitter performs if he isn’t actually walked."

 

[Muston Atthews]

You may well be right, but that seems completely illogical. If a player's playoff performance can increase his value (ie Sandoval) then by all rights a poor playoff performance over an extended stretch (and Price is getting up there...8 playoff appearances do constitute a quarter of a full regular season for a pitcher) should also cost the player some money.

Sid may or may not be ultimately correct, but there's nothing illogical about his point.

Since you didn't see it:

Pablo Sandoval was going to get that deal regardless of what he did in the playoffs. He was the top third baseman going into FA and someone is always going to pay the top FA more than he's worth regardless of a SSS in the playoffs. Could it have helped? Sure. But he was getting a bloated (pun intended) contract due to the fact he was the top 3b FA. You're also comparing a pitcher to a position player. Price's 7 mediocre playoff starts aren't going to overshadow 10 years of work that he has provided stellar numbers in. He's a guy who will get you to the playoffs.

 

[Owen Wilson]

Roster question heading into the weekend...could the Jays replace Hawkins with Buerhle before game 6?

Why you ask?

Hawkins is not gonna see the rubber the rest of the season and since they're calling for ****** weather on the weekend, Buerhle could be a decent option if the game starts and then is delayed for a few hours

I guess Dickey could fill that role if needed but just wondering if you can replace a guy if not injured

 

[The Nemesis]

I know this is sort of OT, but I know a few pages back there was talk of just signing Estrada and maybe letting Price walk. If they let Price walk, is there any chance of getting Lincecum? Would he do better in the AL since he won't have to bat?

He hasn't been good for years. and his problems are in no way related to batting. His body is breaking down, quite possibly because his slight frame and perhaps some unlucky genetics meant he couldn't handle the excess wear of his funky, engineered mechanics and delivery. He doesn't stay healthy, his velocity is down almost 7mph from his high-water point, to the point that his fastball is now sub-90s (and his other pitches don't have that same adjustment, so the separation has shrunk). The overall effectiveness of his individual pitches has plummeted, his strikeout rates have trended straight down, and he was never a control guy so all those walks are coming back to haunt him now that he can't just mow batters down.

Individually those are all troubling signs. Together they point to a player whose value at the MLB level is crashing at an astronomical rate.

 

[Daisy Jane]

this is some crazy St Lous Blues mojo ya'll

 

[Kurtz]

"While walks are good for an offense, the idea of protection rests on the idea that the first of the two great hitters will receive better pitches to hit. In this regard, Tango suggests that lineup protection does not exist: protection "merely increases the ratio of walks to non-walks without significantly affecting how well the hitter performs if he isn’t actually walked."

Ok, so Tango is saying that a player will get walked more if he doesn't receive protection. But otherwise, his hitting numbers won't change with or without protection.

So if that's the case, is he suggesting that you're better off not protecting your star hitter, because he'll draw more walks while his avg/slugging won't change? Or to my earlier point, that he's suggesting that the number of hits gained with protection will be offset by less walks?

 

[TootooTrain]

You may well be right, but that seems completely illogical. If a player's playoff performance can increase his value (ie Sandoval) then by all rights a poor playoff performance over an extended stretch (and Price is getting up there...8 playoff appearances do constitute a quarter of a full regular season for a pitcher) should also cost the player some money.

Again, the larger sample size is the regular season. The playoffs are such a toss up that any team would be willing to take the chance with their cy young ace. It's so difficult to make the playoffs in baseball let alone produce in them. Occasionally there will be a David Freese or a Sandoval that has a big playoff and milks it for all it's worth. Following up will be a GM willing to take a gamble on that production continuing. But there is not a GM alive that will think twice about giving a proven elite pitcher his money.

 

[Kurtz]

Since you didn't see it:
Pablo Sandoval was going to get that deal regardless of what he did in the playoffs. He was the top third baseman going into FA and someone is always going to pay the top FA more than he's worth regardless of a SSS in the playoffs. Could it have helped? Sure. But he was getting a bloated (pun intended) contract due to the fact he was the top 3b FA. You're also comparing a pitcher to a position player. Price's 7 mediocre playoff starts aren't going to overshadow 10 years of work that he has provided stellar numbers in. He's a guy who will get you to the playoffs.

Friend, I saw it, it's just that you wrote that Pablo was going to get that deal regardless of his playoffs...but then in the next sentence stated that his playoff performance(s) could have helped him get that deal. I didn't want to get into a whole debate by pointing out this contradiction.

 

[Kurtz]

Again, the larger sample size is the regular season. The playoffs are such a toss up that any team would be willing to take the chance with their cy young ace. It's so difficult to make the playoffs in baseball let alone produce in them. Occasionally there will be a David Freese or a Sandoval that has a big playoff and milks it for all it's worth. Following up will be a GM willing to take a gamble on that production continuing. But there is not a GM alive that will think twice about giving a proven elite pitcher his money.

Price will get paid big time. The question is if he blows tomorrow, will his pay be impacted. I say it might be. Look at it this way...the Dodgers will almost certainly be the highest bidder on either Greinke or Price. Greinke has a solid playoff record over close to 60 innings...Price has a terrible playoff record over the same. If, on that basis, the Dodgers decide to go with Greinke over Price...Price will lose some money. We won't know for sure until the off-season but it's absolutely fair to contemplate.

 

[Man Bear Pig]

Roster question heading into the weekend...could the Jays replace Hawkins with Buerhle before game 6?

Why you ask?

Hawkins is not gonna see the rubber the rest of the season and since they're calling for ****** weather on the weekend, Buerhle could be a decent option if the game starts and then is delayed for a few hours

I guess Dickey could fill that role if needed but just wondering if you can replace a guy if not injured

No, Buehrle isn't on the playoff roster. He's not an option at this point. Otherwise, you'd hear more talk about him. This really is a horrible scenario for the Jays; two left-handed pen arms, only 1 is any good and can go more than a batter or two and both are gone for the series it would appear. This is why Gibbons is so aggressive with Price, he has no other left-handed options.

 

[Man Bear Pig]

Price will get paid big time. The question is if he blows tomorrow, will his pay be impacted. I say it might be. Look at it this way...the Dodgers will almost certainly be the highest bidder on either Greinke or Price. Greinke has a solid playoff record over close to 60 innings...Price has a terrible playoff record over the same. If, on that basis, the Dodgers decide to go with Greinke over Price...Price will lose some money. We won't know for sure until the off-season but it's absolutely fair to contemplate.

His pay won't be impacted no matter how he pitches. You'd have to be a pretty awful GM to base a players salary on one game, or even a handful of games, which is how much Price has pitched in the post-season. He's getting $200 million from someone. Every off-season there's questions asked about these types of players and every year one GM comes forward and does it anyway regardless.

 

[TootooTrain]

Price will get paid big time. The question is if he blows tomorrow, will his pay be impacted. I say it might be. Look at it this way...the Dodgers will almost certainly be the highest bidder on either Greinke or Price. Greinke has a solid playoff record over close to 60 innings...Price has a terrible playoff record over the same. If, on that basis, the Dodgers decide to go with Greinke over Price...Price will lose some money.

One contract has little to do with the other. They're worth what a team is willing to pay.

I'm not arguing if this phenomena exists. I'm sure there's a GM out there that thinks about it. Frankly he'll be the one losing out on Price. It's that contracts are completely, utterly, absolutely, weighted on the regular season. Which is why I said it can help you, but it rarely hurts you.

 

[Mach85]

Price will get paid big time. The question is if he blows tomorrow, will his pay be impacted. I say it might be. Look at it this way...the Dodgers will almost certainly be the highest bidder on either Greinke or Price. Greinke has a solid playoff record over close to 60 innings...Price has a terrible playoff record over the same. If, on that basis, the Dodgers decide to go with Greinke over Price...Price will lose some money. We won't know for sure until the off-season but it's absolutely fair to contemplate.

There's word that the Dodgers are intent on going after Price AND re-signing Greinke. That's scary, but they'd better fix that bullpen as well.

 

[LaCarriere]

Roster question heading into the weekend...could the Jays replace Hawkins with Buerhle before game 6?

Why you ask?

Hawkins is not gonna see the rubber the rest of the season and since they're calling for ****** weather on the weekend, Buerhle could be a decent option if the game starts and then is delayed for a few hours

I guess Dickey could fill that role if needed but just wondering if you can replace a guy if not injured

You can't replace anyone unless somebody gets placed on the DL. You choose your 25 man roster at the start of each series from eligible players from the 40-man.

I suppose they could just put Hawkins on the DL, but I doubt they do that to him, knowing Gibby.

 

[Muston Atthews]

Friend, I saw it, it's just that you wrote that Pablo was going to get that deal regardless of his playoffs...but then in the next sentence stated that his playoff performance(s) could have helped him get that deal. I didn't want to get into a whole debate by pointing out this contradiction.

It's not a contradiction. I was answering your question as well as saying it was irrelevant.

Price will get paid big time. The question is if he blows tomorrow, will his pay be impacted. I say it might be. Look at it this way...the Dodgers will almost certainly be the highest bidder on either Greinke or Price. Greinke has a solid playoff record over close to 60 innings...Price has a terrible playoff record over the same. If, on that basis, the Dodgers decide to go with Greinke over Price...Price will lose some money. We won't know for sure until the off-season but it's absolutely fair to contemplate.

If we're going by your theory, the team that loses out on Greinke will give Price the same money.

 

[Cor]

There's word that the Dodgers are intent on going after Price AND re-signing Greinke. That's scary, but they'd better fix that bullpen as well.

Scary is an understatement.

Kershaw, Greinke, Price.

That's more than insane. Those are arguably the best 3 pitchers in the game today (regular season wise anyways). If not, they are all at least in the top 6.

 

[Mach85]

Scary is an understatement.

Kershaw, Greinke, Price.

That's more than insane. Those are arguably the best 3 pitchers in the game today (regular season wise anyways). If not, they are all at least in the top 6.

I guess their response to the bullpen imploding is to just have the starter go 9 each time out

 

[LaCarriere]

Price is going to get ~30M a year, it's just a matter of if it's for 6, 7 or 8 years.

Teams are already lining up with their individual offers, they are just waiting for the season to end.

There's going to be too many teams bidding for him, for his post season to matter.

 

[trellaine201]

Roster question heading into the weekend...could the Jays replace Hawkins with Buerhle before game 6?

Why you ask?

Hawkins is not gonna see the rubber the rest of the season and since they're calling for ****** weather on the weekend, Buerhle could be a decent option if the game starts and then is delayed for a few hours

I guess Dickey could fill that role if needed but just wondering if you can replace a guy if not injured

No you can't.

 

[Owen Wilson]

No you can't.

From what I'm reading, you can but would hav to put Hawkins on the DL which would also make him ineligible for the WS if they get there.

I thought I saw somewhere that he was having elbow issues

 

[The Nemesis]

Ok, so Tango is saying that a player will get walked more if he doesn't receive protection. But otherwise, his hitting numbers won't change with or without protection.

Won't change significantly. There's likely to be some change, including possibly some infinitesimal increase. But whatever change exists is so small as to be significantly insignificant (and largely indistinguishable from standard random fluctuations)

So if that's the case, is he suggesting that you're better off not protecting your star hitter, because he'll draw more walks while his avg/slugging won't change? Or to my earlier point, that he's suggesting that the number of hits gained with protection will be offset by less walks?

That's not really the point of the piece. The intent was never to prove what was the optimal situation with regards to how protection does/doesn't work. The intent was to address the age-old baseball axiom that lineup protection affords hitters that have it a better chance to produce and/or more good opportunities to produce because of the changes to a pitcher's strategy caused by the batter on deck. Or there's also the somewhat tacit suggestion that the inverse is also true: that a batter with bad protection (like the pitcher hitting behind them) will have their opportunities downgraded in quality and/or quantity.


So the conclusion ultimately is that this widely-held belief about the nature of protection is completely false. There might be an uptick in walks because of it, but that ultimately those added walks don't come with a corresponding improvement in offensive production on balls that the batter puts into play. you might see some more strikeouts too, yes. But something like wOBA won't change overall, and again, balls hit into play are not significantly better or worse for the player regardless of protection factors.

 

[The Nemesis]

Price is going to get ~30M a year, it's just a matter of if it's for 6, 7 or 8 years.

Teams are already lining up with their individual offers, they are just waiting for the season to end.

There's going to be too many teams bidding for him, for his post season to matter.

This is spot on. The teams that would pay him less because of his playoffs are a non-factor since they will simply be drowned out by the teams that don't care about the playoff record and are paying for David Price: cy young calibre pitcher.

 

[Loosie]

From what I'm reading, you can but would hav to put Hawkins on the DL which would also make him ineligible for the WS if they get there.

I thought I saw somewhere that he was having elbow issues

It has to be a legit injury issue. Besides Buehrle has said he doesn't pitch out of the pen. He's NOT getting added to the roster.

 

[Habsawce]

I hope they have an offer and how they're going to negotiate ready, and don't spend a bunch of time figuring out if AA will be the GM or not.

 

[LaCarriere]

It has to be a legit injury issue. Besides Buehrle has said he doesn't pitch out of the pen. He's NOT getting added to the roster.

Does it? I'm sure they could just say he has shoulder/wrist soreness or something.

Does the league actually medically review the player when placed on the DL?