We should not blow it up and stay the course

[McGoMcD]

So I am going to throw this out there knowing I will probably get a lot of push back.

I don't think we should blow the team up, if a deal works for a key player then great, do it of course. However, Chia should go into the off-season not with the goal of blowing anything up and changing the total make up of the team. Chia should make marginal changes that address weaknesses. Add a D man of course, via FA or Trade. I am not saying we don't need any changes, but that we dont' need radical changes.

My reasons are pretty simple. This team will finish with 5-9 more points than it had last year. THe goal differential will improve by about 40 goals (-85 last year to -45 now). Given McDavid missed half the year and we have just a terrible stretch of bad luck with injuries none of this seems all that depressing.

Rebuilds take time and don't go as planned, the worse thing you can do is not recognize improvement when you have it. As long as the team is pointing up, then you don't make radical changes. As much as people want blood and change for change sake there is no reason for it.

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[Beerfish]

At this rate your rebuild will be ready when Hall and the boys are ready to retire.

This team for the last 10 years has mucked around with bottom end dmen and forwards, none of that works at all. In the end you win and lose with your best players.

The present group has 100% proven they cannot even improve enough after numerous years to be within eye sight of a playoff spot. Each year we are looking up at the ***** of teams with less talent, or the same talent but they actually get some results.

I applaud you for sticking to your guns, if the oilers do take this tact this summer the one big benefit will be I won't be on these boards to tick anyone off anymore with the negativity as I'll be totally checked out on this franchise.

Chia has the draft and a week of free agency to make massive changes to get some character on this team. The stand pat and hope all the draft picks get good is a fail strategy.

 

[McGoMcD]

At this rate your rebuild will be ready when Hall and the boys are ready to retire.

This team for the last 10 years has mucked around with bottom end dmen and forwards, none of that works at all. In the end you win and lose with your best players.

The present group has 100% proven they cannot even improve enough after numerous years to be within eye sight of a playoff spot. Each year we are looking up at the ***** of teams with less talent, or the same talent but they actually get some results.

I applaud you for sticking to your guns, if the oilers do take this tact this summer the one big benefit will be I won't be on these boards to tick anyone off anymore with the negativity as I'll be totally checked out on this franchise.

Chia has the draft and a week of free agency to make massive changes to get some character on this team. The stand pat and hope all the draft picks get good is a fail strategy.

Thats just it though, the rebuild won't take forever. If you get another 40 goal differential improvement next year and 7 more points in the standings the rebuild will be over. We will be competing for the playoffs. You have to recognize improvement when you see it. Why blow up a team that is trending up? That would be a big mistake.

 

[Mcnotloilersfan]

So I am going to throw this out there knowing I will probably get a lot of push back.

I don't think we should blow the team up, if a deal works for a key player then great, do it of course. However, Chia should go into the off-season not with the goal of blowing anything up and changing the total make up of the team. Chia should make marginal changes that address weaknesses. Add a D man of course, via FA or Trade. I am not saying we don't need any changes, but that we dont' need radical changes.

My reasons are pretty simple. This team will finish with 5-9 more points than it had last year. THe goal differential will improve by about 40 goals (-85 last year to -45 now). Given McDavid missed half the year and we have just a terrible stretch of bad luck with injuries none of this seems all that depressing.

Rebuilds take time and don't go as planned, the worse thing you can do is not recognize improvement when you have it. As long as the team is pointing up, then you don't make radical changes. As much as people want blood and change for change sake there is no reason for it.

The problem I have, is I'm used to hearing those stats about the team this year.

"This is our record since all-star break!" "Since player X and Y were healthy"

This 'core' wont win together.

Recognize that now, and we can deal them, completely fix the D, and have a pretty short rebuild/retool infront of us.

Ignore it, we hurt the development of the guys who aren't used to losing culture, and our old core assets will continue to depreciate in value.

 

[Mcnotloilersfan]

Thats just it though, the rebuild won't take forever. If you get another 40 goal differential improvement next year and 7 more points in the standings the rebuild will be over. We will be competing for the playoffs. You have to recognize improvement when you see it. Why blow up a team that is trending up? That would be a big mistake.

7 more points in the standings means nothing. All of these little stats mean nothing to me when we are still in the league basement.

I see a group of guys who just dont care. I want change

 

[McGoMcD]

The problem I have, is I'm used to hearing those stats about the team this year.

"This is our record since all-star break!" "Since player X and Y were healthy"

This 'core' wont win together.

Recognize that now, and we can deal them, completely fix the D, and have a pretty short rebuild/retool infront of us.

Ignore it, we hurt the development of the guys who aren't used to losing culture, and our old core assets will continue to depreciate in value.

Well they have been winning together more so than last year. That is improvement. In the face of brutal injuries, not bad.

I just see no reason the core is truly flawed, they just aren't as good as people hoped. But that doesn't mean you trade them, it just means we have to be patient. Things are trending up, stay the course.

 

[McGoMcD]

7 more points in the standings means nothing. All of these little stats mean nothing to me when we are still in the league basement.

I see a group of guys who just dont care. I want change

Thanks for this post, this is the post that I want to aim at. First of all I get the sentiment, but here is the thing. How do you see a group that doesn't care? How do you know big changes will result in anything better? We trade Hall, Nuge, Ebs ect we will get 70 cents on the dollar for every trade. We get worse and not better.

As much as the standings suck, there has been big improvement this year. 40 goal differential improvement is very substantial, i don't care what any one says.

 

[McJadeddog]

At this rate your rebuild will be ready when Hall and the boys are ready to retire.

This team for the last 10 years has mucked around with bottom end dmen and forwards, none of that works at all. In the end you win and lose with your best players.

The present group has 100% proven they cannot even improve enough after numerous years to be within eye sight of a playoff spot. Each year we are looking up at the ***** of teams with less talent, or the same talent but they actually get some results.

I applaud you for sticking to your guns, if the oilers do take this tact this summer the one big benefit will be I won't be on these boards to tick anyone off anymore with the negativity as I'll be totally checked out on this franchise.

Chia has the draft and a week of free agency to make massive changes to get some character on this team. The stand pat and hope all the draft picks get good is a fail strategy.

yup, this is me as well... if there isn't some major moves this summer, i'm done, just f'ing DONE... i'll check in to see how mcjesus is doing in the scoring leaderboard, and see where the team is in the standings, but i won't be following closely anymore... i gave them a decade of my life with nothing in return, i'm not giving them a +1 on that decade unless there is tangible evidence to think that this team can be competitive

 

[GMofOilers]

We dont really even need to change the core of this team. We need to insulate them with some leaders.

I think Hall and Eberle stay. I think Nuge and Yak get moved out for sure. I think we bring in a gritty top 6 player (Ladd). We also need way more experience on the back end.

Look at how many players have 0 playoff experience. Way to many of these guys dont know how to win at the NHL level. They were never taught. Im sure we are the least experienced team for playoff games played in the whole league. Well maybe Toronto has us.

 

[Jet Walters]

Thats just it though, the rebuild won't take forever. If you get another 40 goal differential improvement next year and 7 more points in the standings the rebuild will be over. We will be competing for the playoffs. You have to recognize improvement when you see it. Why blow up a team that is trending up? That would be a big mistake.

You know you're reaching when you start arguing the merits of a goal differential that is still at the bottom of the league.

All we need is a few defensemen and a few forwards. Adding guys like Korpikoski and Letestu up front and Reinhart and Fayne on D like we've seen every year is not going to cut it. To get what we need some "core" pieces will need to be traded. It's really that simple.

 

[McGoMcD]

You know you're reaching when you start arguing the merits of a goal differential that is still at the bottom of the league.

All we need is a few defensemen and a few forwards. Adding guys like Korpikoski and Letestu up front and Reinhart and Fayne on D like we've seen every year is not going to cut it. To get what we need some "core" pieces will need to be traded. It's really that simple.

don't see core pieces having to be moved, you have FA and the draft pick. Both are options to improve with out moving any one.

 

[Oilrider]

I agree to a certain extent. This team improved over the last few years for sure. Last year they were:
24W 44L 14OTL for 62PTS
This year:
30W 43L 7OTL for 67PTS with 2 games in hand.

Sekera is good as long as you didn't expect some sort of star Dman. Klefbom and Davidson have really shown they are legit NHL players, and their injuries have really hurt us. Our imrovements would be a lot more obvious with them in the lineup, especially considering how close they are to being in 25th as it is. Likewise with McDavid.

That said, this core simply isn't the right mix. We have drafted the best player available with our top picks, but that doesn't mean we have to keep them. Those players are more valuable to another team than they are to us. We need more defensively aware players, set up guys, and proven veteran leadership in the top 6, and top 4 on D. The thinking that anyone who is traded for, or signed needs to be with us forever, and the same age as the young core has been wrong from the start.
We have an abundance of goal scorers, but they can't score goals because they don't play the rest of the game, don't set each other up, don't battle, don't hit, don't grind, backcheck, etc.

A worse team on paper will win more games than this team because they don't have the other things it takes to win. I'd hold onto McDavid of course, and I'd try my hardest to keep Hall, but anyone else can go. That doesn't mean everyone needs to go either, but I wouldn't mind 2 or three of Eberle, Yakupov, RNH, Drai, Klefbom, Nurse, Reinhart, Davidson, Sekera, to be traded for the right immediate return. BTW, I mention the Dmen, not because we are so good defensively, or those players aren't good. But we have too many on the left side, and too much youth and "potential". We have lots of that, we need to balance some of it with good, experienced, and preferably right shot, D.

 

[McGoMcD]

We dont really even need to change the core of this team. We need to insulate them with some leaders.

I think Hall and Eberle stay. I think Nuge and Yak get moved out for sure. I think we bring in a gritty top 6 player (Ladd). We also need way more experience on the back end.

Look at how many players have 0 playoff experience. Way to many of these guys dont know how to win at the NHL level. They were never taught. Im sure we are the least experienced team for playoff games played in the whole league. Well maybe Toronto has us.

I agree with this, we need more leadership. We need to get older, simple as that. We are the youngest team in the NHL. If the rebuild is over, then we get older. We should not be the youngest team in the NHL again next year. Bring in a couple vets.

 

[tempest2i]

Thats just it though, the rebuild won't take forever. If you get another 40 goal differential improvement next year and 7 more points in the standings the rebuild will be over. We will be competing for the playoffs. You have to recognize improvement when you see it. Why blow up a team that is trending up? That would be a big mistake.

The Oilers stopped trending up sometime shortly after the start of February. That was the most important stretch of the season, with McDavid finally back from injury (and producing!).

You know what they did?

- lost 10 of 14 games
- scored 1 goal in 7 of those games.

I have a hard time believing that the team is "trending up" in any meaningful way.

 

[McJadeddog]

Thanks for this post, this is the post that I want to aim at. First of all I get the sentiment, but here is the thing. How do you see a group that doesn't care? How do you know big changes will result in anything better? We trade Hall, Nuge, Ebs ect we will get 70 cents on the dollar for every trade. We get worse and not better.

As much as the standings suck, there has been big improvement this year. 40 goal differential improvement is very substantial, i don't care what any one says.

yes, this is a big, big improvement... but its essentially ALL goaltending

our 5v5 CF% is 48.9% this year... it was 48.1% last year... our save% at evens is 91.58% this year, and last year was 90.19%... that save% difference of .0139% works out to 27.9 goals on 2008 shots against (which is what we have so far this year)... our play is essentially exactly the same, we just got better goaltending

 

[BoldNewLettuce]

No one wants to stay. No one cares if they're traded.

 

[McGoMcD]

yes, this is a big, big improvement... but its essentially ALL goaltending

our 5v5 CF% is 48.9% this year... it was 48.1% last year... our save% at evens is 91.58% this year, and last year was 90.19%... that save% difference of .0139% works out to 27.9 goals on 2008 shots against (which is what we have so far this year)... our play is essentially exactly the same, we just got better goaltending

Sure, Talbot played a big part, but with all our injuries. We did more than just improve in net. The team played better defence this year as a whole.

 

[missinthejets]

The Oilers stopped trending up sometime shortly after the start of February. That was the most important stretch of the season, with McDavid finally back from injury (and producing!).

You know what they did?

- lost 10 of 14 games
- scored 1 goal in 7 of those games.

I have a hard time believing that the team is "trending up" in any meaningful way.

basically the team hit the crapper when RNH was out and Klefbom continued to be out. Those two were huge losses and it took the team a long time to figure out a way to over come that, especially when a guy like Davidson was had been a nice surprise on the year got hurt as well. Too many injuries and too many rookies on D really did hurt the team this year and it's just being negative to deny that.

 

[bucks_oil]

don't see core pieces having to be moved, you have FA and the draft pick. Both are options to improve with out moving any one.

I applaud your optimism… I really do. I really hate the idea of seeing us cut bait on any of these guys, but…

But I think your reasoning is a bit flawed. Last year we were able to improve +40 in goal differential because we made some significant changes. We made a complete overhaul to the coaching staff, a new starting goalie, made a complete overhaul to the bottom six, added a generational centerman for 40 games, added a potential #1C for 60 games, replaced antique defensemen with younger upstarts.

HUGE changes, which are not repeatable (we don’t have another chance to add a McDavid, even half a McDavid). Yes we improved +40 in goal differential, but we STILL have another +80 goals to go in order to be a contender (look at the contenders, all +40 in goal differential, not –40 as we currently are).

You’ve done the bottom six, you’ve done the goalie, you’ve done the elite center depth, in fact you’ve already partly fixed the D… only two RD away from what would be the obvious changes.

How are you going to bridge the gap?

Are two strong RD’s going to change the dynamic so much that we’ll gain 80 goals differential?

That’s where people are coming from. The Ebs, the Nuge, the Halls of this world have not given you the confidence that they aren’t part of the problem. Everyone can see that Ebs is a cerebral player. How does a cerebral player like Ebs end up on the wrong side of the puck/his check when our goal-light is on? Hall is among the fastest skaters in the league… and he’s similarly too far away from the decisive defensive play when it matters.

We find ourselves in these situations because motivation is LOW, or they won’t LISTEN, or they don’t CARE. It’s ok to have a couple of guys like this… they bring game-breaking capability. But… we still have huge holes that need to be addressed and one way to address them is to change the complement of forwards in favor of top D.

Some of these guys have got to go… but hopefully not for pennies on the dollar.

 

[McGoMcD]

basically the team hit the crapper when RNH was out and Klefbom continued to be out. Those two were huge losses and it took the team a long time to figure out a way to over come that, especially when a guy like Davidson was had been a nice surprise on the year got hurt as well. Too many injuries and too many rookies on D really did hurt the team this year and it's just being negative to deny that.

Ya, I think pouliot also hurt more than any one gives him credit. He was the one vet in the top 6 that really brought his game just about every night. He left a hole as well.

 

[Beerfish]

basically the team hit the crapper when RNH was out and Klefbom continued to be out. Those two were huge losses and it took the team a long time to figure out a way to over come that, especially when a guy like Davidson was had been a nice surprise on the year got hurt as well. Too many injuries and too many rookies on D really did hurt the team this year and it's just being negative to deny that.

Teams are never totally healthy so get used to pulling that excuse out. Each year I watch as other teams have injuries as well and somehow find a away not to totally fall on their *****.

As for the good old goal differential being used as some great indicator, we are still 2nd last in the league in the department with all the usual juggernauts ahead of us such as Toronto, Buff, Columbus, Arizona, Carolina, New Jersey.

This team is not magically getting better as it is, will the team be improved next year if we stand pat? Yup, becasue of one player, McDavid, that's it.

We have assets (would have had more if we didn't toss some away on a 5/6 dman). They have had their 'year of evaluation', they should know what we need. Time to friggin be a real GM/front office and make moves.

 

[TheRebuild]

I too think we're just a several pieces away from seriously competing.
Drew Doughty, Duncan Keith, and maybe... a Crosby or Ovechkin.

 

[McPuritania]

We need to move out most of the core, but not for picks, and prospects. Legit NHL'ers only.

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

I honestly do agree with some of what you're saying, it's too exhausting to try an justify. We'll see change in the offseason, to what degree, we have no idea.

I only know 2 things. Cam Talbot is a starting goalie, finally they have one. And Connor McDavid is simply amazing.

 

[Oilrider]

basically the team hit the crapper when RNH was out and Klefbom continued to be out. Those two were huge losses and it took the team a long time to figure out a way to over come that, especially when a guy like Davidson was had been a nice surprise on the year got hurt as well. Too many injuries and too many rookies on D really did hurt the team this year and it's just being negative to deny that.

This is true, but it doesn't mean that this core is the right mix either. And it shows where we need to make sure we have depth: D and C. Had it not been for injuries to McDavid, Klefbom, and RNH, this team could be on the playoff bubble, but I still think they are outside looking in. Much better in the standings, maybe 20th in the league, but still with glaring weaknesses that need to be addressed.

Trade both Yakupov and Eberle, and one of Nurse, Klefbom, and Davidson for proven D and get big veteran leaders who play twoway hockey, and know that they need to get the puck to McD and Hall via trades or signings.

If we don't see a significant player, other than a rookie, on O and D, this team is a bottom 10 team again, as best case scenario.