We need to talk about Brendan Smith (Update: I jinxed him hard)

[dangledangledeke]

And that is the main problem so far. He's having stretches of really good games, playing out his offensive upside while not making big mistakes defensively.
But we all saw how fast that may change again - considering his late play vs. the Flyers e.g.

As good as he might be offensively, in far too many games he comes off as a defensive liability.
Contrary to Marchenko, who's proven to be pretty constant in regard to his performances. Just as you put it: Solid and reliable.

1 bad play the past month, second best d-man? You can't be serious.

Would you believe it if I told you he is best on our team in High Danger Scoring Chances For and Against? +3. The Next best, Mike Green, is -4.

If he was such a liability why is he at the top of our team in all the statistics that are proven to winning hockey games? And pointing out 1 bad event on the season isn't proof, it's an anomaly.

 

[Frk It]

Would you believe it if I told you he is best on our team in High Danger Scoring Chances For and Against? +3. The Next best, Mike Green, is -4.

I imagine the fact that he is given pretty much exclusively only easy assignments factors into that.

 

[ap3x]

the hooking penalty?

is that what you're referring too?

i hope not as i have seen dozens upon dozens of bad penalties taken at bad times by kronwall, let alone anyone else

Kronwall et. al take bad penalties at times, yes. But according to my perception not to that degree that Smith is. He's just not smart enough to avoid many of them. And that hooking penalty is a perfect example for that. Why on earth would you do that with as much left on the clock?

 

[PelagicJoe]

Smith is what he is: mostly garbage.

As far as this team goes, I'd rank the D as follows:

1. Kronwall
2. Green (Can be argued he is better than Nick this year)
3. Marchenko (he needs back in the lineup, and will be since Kronwall is out for at least a month.)
4. DDK
5. Quincey (probably tied with DDK really)
6. Ericsson
7. Smith
8. Kindl

 

[GoAwayDanCleary]

I imagine the fact that he is given pretty much exclusively only easy assignments factors into that.

He is what he is, a solid 3rd pairing defenseman. He does a great job in his role. Makes one or two bad mistakes even while playing good hockey and people go all crazy pretending like he's a terrible hockey player. I would much rather have Smith on my third pair than E or Q.

 

[newfy]

Smith is what he is: mostly garbage.

As far as this team goes, I'd rank the D as follows:

1. Kronwall
2. Green (Can be argued he is better than Nick this year)
3. Marchenko (he needs back in the lineup, and will be since Kronwall is out for at least a month.)
4. DDK
5. Quincey (probably tied with DDK really)
6. Ericsson
7. Smith
8. Kindl

Smith of this year is definitely not garbage, why dont you try looking at him without bias from years past?

Seriously the guy has played as one of Detroits top 4 D this year. The advanced stats tell us that and the eye test tells most people who dont hate him because he makes the odd bone head play.

People have these MOD (paraphrasing.. massive amounts of support) for Marchenko (who has played great) and Mike Green, even though their deployment is similar and Smith is at the very least getting similar results, I would argue better for the most part.

Sure hes not perfect but he adds a mean streak to the team, solid advanced stats, and even strength scoring as much as any other dman on the team. So what exactly is so "garbage" about him compared to these other guys who he is performing comparably with. I'm confident calling him a pretty solid #4 at this point

 

[Classicnamesup]

You broke his brain, thanks OP

 

[silkyjohnson50]

Why are some people ignoring the start of Smith's season? He was being benched for Kindl at times and rightfully so. He was bad. He had a 2-3 week stretch of real good play. And now he seems to be trending back down.

 

[PelagicJoe]

OK, so maybe he's slightly better than Big Rig? That puts him at 6 instead of 7.
He makes too many bone head plays that result in losses. (See that OT loss against NJ for example.)
Third pairing guy, ok. Solid? Not really.

 

[Flowah]

Smith of this year is definitely not garbage, why dont you try looking at him without bias from years past?

Seriously the guy has played as one of Detroits top 4 D this year. The advanced stats tell us that and the eye test tells most people who dont hate him because he makes the odd bone head play.

People have these MOD (paraphrasing.. massive amounts of support) for Marchenko (who has played great) and Mike Green, even though their deployment is similar and Smith is at the very least getting similar results, I would argue better for the most part.

Sure hes not perfect but he adds a mean streak to the team, solid advanced stats, and even strength scoring as much as any other dman on the team. So what exactly is so "garbage" about him compared to these other guys who he is performing comparably with. I'm confident calling him a pretty solid #4 at this point

I have to think the advanced stats just aren't there for defensemen yet. At least not for the defensive side.

Otherwise Smith is better than Kronwall and is anyone really going to take that position? ****, Ericsson is better than Kronwall at ES P/60. Kindl has the best Corsi AND is the best suppressor of high danger chances of all our d-men this season. Is that really what we're going with? When the stats are that far out of reality, you have to shelve them for a bit until you find something better.

 

[TheOtherOne]

Okay this has gone long enough.

Somebody explain the play to me. I don't remember much of what happened especially before the penalty itself.

I remember a breakaway alone on the goalie with seconds left on the clock and Smith out of desperation committed a penalty to stop the scoring chance, much like I would expect most defensemen to do in the same situation. Was it the greatest play ever? No. Lidstrom probably would have stole the puck cleanly and scored somehow. But with seconds left I'm just glad he prevented a goal one way or another.

Or is all the talk actually about whatever led to the scoring chance in the first place? I don't remember exactly what it was, but if Smith actually did something stupid that directly led to the chance, then I understand all the *****ing.

Remind me please, someone?

 

[GoAwayDanCleary]

I have to think the advanced stats just aren't there for defensemen yet. At least not for the defensive side.

Otherwise Smith is better than Kronwall and is anyone really going to take that position? ****, Ericsson is better than Kronwall at ES P/60. Kindl has the best Corsi AND is the best suppressor of high danger chances of all our d-men this season. Is that really what we're going with? When the stats are that far out of reality, you have to shelve them for a bit until you find something better.

I mean I think the eye test supports those stats pretty well. Smith does a solid job of driving possession, in large part because he is good in the neutral zone. He pinches well and is also great at defending his own blueline. He just anticipates the play pretty well through the NZ, Green does the same. Really I don't think Smith is that bad at coverage in the d zone as well. He'll have his moments but its not like he stands out for his awful defense.

Smith has this stigma around him that I really don't get. He makes some incredibly dumb decisions at times and deserves all the blame in the world for them. But for the most part he has a positive impact on the third pair.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

Okay this has gone long enough.

Somebody explain the play to me. I don't remember much of what happened especially before the penalty itself.

I remember a breakaway alone on the goalie with seconds left on the clock and Smith out of desperation committed a penalty to stop the scoring chance, much like I would expect most defensemen to do in the same situation. Was it the greatest play ever? No. Lidstrom probably would have stole the puck cleanly and scored somehow. But with seconds left I'm just glad he prevented a goal one way or another.

Or is all the talk actually about whatever led to the scoring chance in the first place? I don't remember exactly what it was, but if Smith actually did something stupid that directly led to the chance, then I understand all the *****ing.

Remind me please, someone?

He held the puck too long and attempted a pass as the last man back with seconds remaining.

One would point out in a game like that it actually takes two D-man to make it so we are coming out of the zone like that with seconds remaining. But Smith still cannot get that close to the other player and try the elevator pass over him. It was incredibly stupid. Press box material just for attempting it stuff.

Giving the penalty at that point was a necessity and he deserves no credit for it. Really it should have been a Penalty Shot, but they didn't call the one on Zetterberg early so they swallowed the whistle there.

It was a play he cannot make.

With that said and it was a play I would never like to see a NHL player make. At times the talk on Smith is he doesn't even belong in the league. It isn't like Kindl where he is washing out totally. That is kind of what the numbers crowd points to and the idea I doubt very much nobody has interest around the league. It isn't what we hoped but he isn't the pariah he is often made out to be. It is just his mistakes are magnified an awful lot around here and his solid plays not so much.

Last games was particularly bad though, there is no covering for that. I don't know what he is thinking there, it is a play you cannot make. Honestly probably the biggest bonehead thing he has done all season. I would have punished him for it if I was Blashill and Kronwall not gone down with sitting him for a game and I really do think he has played a lot better for a while now, but just totally unacceptable.

 

[The Zermanator]

He held the puck too long and attempted a pass as the last man back with seconds remaining.

One would point out in a game like that it actually takes two D-man to make it so we are coming out of the zone like that with seconds remaining. But Smith still cannot get that close to the other player and try the elevator pass over him. It was incredibly stupid. Press box material just for attempting it stuff.

Giving the penalty at that point was a necessity and he deserves no credit for it. Really it should have been a Penalty Shot, but they didn't call the one on Zetterberg early so they swallowed the whistle there.

It was a play he cannot make.

With that said and it was a play I would never like to see a NHL player make. At times the talk on Smith is he doesn't even belong in the league. It isn't like Kindl where he is washing out totally. That is kind of what the numbers crowd points to and the idea I doubt very much nobody has interest around the league. It isn't what we hoped but he isn't the pariah he is often made out to be. It is just his mistakes are magnified an awful lot around here and his solid plays not so much.

Last games was particularly bad though, there is no covering for that. I don't know what he is thinking there, it is a play you cannot make. Honestly probably the biggest bonehead thing he has done all season. I would have punished him for it if I was Blashill and Kronwall not gone down with sitting him for a game and I really do think he has played a lot better for a while now, but just totally unacceptable.

My position on Smith now is that his roster spot would be better spent on Ouellet or Jensen. Smith is what he is at this point, I suspect. Those two deserve a chance to prove they belong in Detroit's top 6-7.

That said he's still an adequately competent NHL defender. A number 5-6 on just about any team I would think.

 

[HIFE]

You have to wonder how much of Detroit's systems and structure can cover the weakness of a so-so hockey player. Hey it worked for Lashoff and Kindl! Smith has been insulated and brought up in a highly developed system that started with the Russians and now past the Lidstrom era. I think any D-man could prosper here. It's taken Green a few months to adapt but watching his play I think he's fitting in exceptionally well and is honestly enjoying Red Wings style of hockey.

How would Smith fare being thrown on another team beside Detroit? He is a decent hockey player I'm sure there are teams that would have him on a 3rd pair? But still I question how he'd play for another team or if he'd even stick.

It will be 12 years since Smith was drafted in the 1st round(27th overall). At 27 it's safe to say we know what he is I don't expect a massive breakout in performance. It's fair to consider him a letdown based on expectations and for how long he's been groomed by the organization. I don't know I like him as a 3rd pairing but he is easily replaceable.

 

[SoupGuru]

I mean I think the eye test supports those stats pretty well. Smith does a solid job of driving possession, in large part because he is good in the neutral zone. He pinches well and is also great at defending his own blueline. He just anticipates the play pretty well through the NZ, Green does the same. Really I don't think Smith is that bad at coverage in the d zone as well. He'll have his moments but its not like he stands out for his awful defense.

Smith has this stigma around him that I really don't get. He makes some incredibly dumb decisions at times and deserves all the blame in the world for them. But for the most part he has a positive impact on the third pair.

Smith is not that good in the neutral zone. His pinching is awful. In fact, his ability to read the play is virtually non existent. I don't see him defending his blue line very well either since, as I mentioned, his ability to read the play is suspect at best. Defensive positioning is not something Smith is acquainted with. The only thing he's really decent at is finding open ice in the O-zone and rotating down into the play but he's been having trouble finishing the plays that he's gotten involved with.

I don't really know what Smith you're talking about. If there were a stat called "bad pinches that lead to odd-man rushes", Smith would certainly lead the team.

 

[TheOtherOne]

He held the puck too long and attempted a pass as the last man back with seconds remaining.

Ok, thanks, that was the part I missed. It sounded like everyone was just referring to the hooking penalty on its own.

 

[dangledangledeke]

In the exact same Philly game, Smith made a play on what would have been a 3 on 1 by pressuring the puck carrier breaking into the zone and forcing him into the boards, taking away all of his options. This directly resulted in us retrieving the puck and exiting the zone.

I don't see anyone talking about this moment, why?

As for discounting his small scoring surge - you can't do that. You can't take away someones positives just to make your argument sound better just like you can't discount a players negatives attributes.


Just for fun, who do you believe these skaters are?

 

[Classicnamesup]

Because small good plays are expected from NHL players. A giveaway on the blue line as the last man back with 15 seconds left in a tied game are bigger plays. If he had gone end to end we would be discussing that but he didn't, he nearly lost the point and took a penalty at the same time.

 

[Flowah]

Just for fun, who do you believe these skaters are?

Doesn't matter because I know who our best skater is in all those categories.

You guess it. Jakub Kindl.

If you're going to use these stats to say Smith is good, you need to find a way to explain Kindl. Either Kindl is also very good, or the stats are flawed for measuring defensive effectiveness, or there is a confounding measure we aren't using or accounting for.

 

[dangledangledeke]

So, if Brendan Smith creates more offense, drives more possession, prevents other teams offense as well as or better than - but makes 1 bad play every 20 games in comparison to the rest of the defense, should we sit him? Because for 19 of those 20 games he is only making a positive impact on the game. That's 95% of the time. That's pretty awesome.

 

[Flowah]

So, if Brendan Smith creates more offense, drives more possession, prevents other teams offense as well as or better than - but makes 1 bad play every 20 games in comparison to the rest of the defense, should we sit him? Because for 19 of those 20 games he is only making a positive impact on the game. That's 95% of the time. That's pretty awesome.

First of all, it's far more than 1 bad play out of every 20. You really think he only makes one bad play every 20 games? He has more bad *games* than that every 20 games, to say nothing of bad plays.

Second, you're dodging the question. Kindl exceeds Smith in all those measures. So what about Kindl? I'm looking at war-on-ice.com right now.

Kindl is better than Smith in CF% Rel, CF%, CF60, CA60. Not just that he's better at scoring chances. SCF% Rel, SCF%, SCF60, SCA60.

So what exactly is your answer to that? Either you're missing something big or we should be playing Kindl on top pair right now.

 

[Pavels Dog]

So, if Brendan Smith creates more offense, drives more possession, prevents other teams offense as well as or better than - but makes 1 bad play every 20 games in comparison to the rest of the defense, should we sit him? Because for 19 of those 20 games he is only making a positive impact on the game. That's 95% of the time. That's pretty awesome.

If it was 1 bad play every 20 games it would be okay. It's really, really not for Brendan. At his best he limits it to maybe 1 awful play per 5 games, but that's during good stretches. Sometimes it's every game, sometimes every period.

Advanced stats are garbage when it comes to d-men. Heck they are mostly garbage when you look at individual players at all imo, but do you ever wonder how guys like Smith or Cody Franson can be advanced stats darlings? It's NOT because they are elite d-men.

 

[ap3x]

Wonder where that myth of "1 bad play in 20 games" is coming from.

 

[chances14]

he's doing good if he doesn't make one bad play per period