Speculation: Way too early Seider/Raymond extension predictions

[Henkka]

Limited sample size against low level competition, averaging around 15 minutes a game. If Walman/Oesterle pair was that good, Fester could just increase their ice time.

Regardless, Seider is the one that needs to be moved down, not Chiarot. Chiarot-Oesterle is not a first pair.


Edit: Maybe the easiest solution here is to just reduce ice time for Seider and Chiarot, and see how the other pairings do against tougher competition.

There's some really really tiny smaple sizes of different D-pairs at Natural stat trick. They'll play those extra shifts at games after special teams etc.

Regular pairs:
Chiarot - Seider, bad
Määttä-Hronek, good
Walman-Oesterle, good
Hägg-Lindström, bad

I just bring in here, which different pairs have good or bad statistics together:

Good:
Oesterle-Lindström, 65.5 xGF%
Chiarot-Hronek, 85.3 xGF% absolutely great, has only scored goals, and zero against.
Oesterle-Seider, 62.7 xGF%
Määttä-Seider, 61.2 xGF%
Määttä-Walman, 60.9 xGF%
Oesterle-Hronek, 68.4 xGF%, very good numbers
Määttä-Oesterle, 79.6%
Chiarot-Oesterle, 84.3%

Bad
Chiarot-Määttä, 26.9 xGF, no goals scored, only taken against.
Hägg-Oesterle, 26.3 xGF very bad
Walman-Seider 25.9 xGF%
Hägg-Seider 3.6 xGF% (worst)

So there's lots of good looking options, just avoid these four last ones. Hronek-Seider also has bad numbers, but I think 2 righties at same pair are not anyways a regular option on long run.

Because both Chiarot-Hronek and Määttä-Seider had promising positive numbers, I'd go with that solution. Keep that 3rd pair as it is, Walman Oesterle.

Chiarot - Hronek
Määttä - Seider
Walman - Oesterle

 

[Gniwder]

There's some really really tiny smaple sizes of different D-pairs at Natural stat trick. They'll play those extra shifts at games after special teams etc.

Regular pairs:
Chiarot - Seider, bad
Määttä-Hronek, good
Walman-Oesterle, good
Hägg-Lindström, bad

I just bring in here, which different pairs have good or bad statistics together:

Good:
Oesterle-Lindström, 65.5 xGF%
Chiarot-Hronek, 85.3 xGF% absolutely great, has only scored goals, and zero against.
Oesterle-Seider, 62.7 xGF%
Määttä-Seider, 61.2 xGF%
Määttä-Walman, 60.9 xGF%
Oesterle-Hronek, 68.4 xGF%, very good numbers
Määttä-Oesterle, 79.6%
Chiarot-Oesterle, 84.3%

Bad
Chiarot-Määttä, 26.9 xGF, no goals scored, only taken against.
Hägg-Oesterle, 26.3 xGF very bad
Walman-Seider 25.9 xGF%
Hägg-Seider 3.6 xGF% (worst)

So there's lots of good looking options, just avoid these four last ones. Hronek-Seider also has bad numbers, but I think 2 righties at same pair are not anyways a regular option on long run.

Because both Chiarot-Hronek and Määttä-Seider had promising positive numbers, I'd go with that solution. Keep that 3rd pair as it is, Walman Oesterle.

Chiarot - Hronek
Määttä - Seider
Walman - Oesterle

I agree, but the easier step is to just reduce Seider's ice time. He has not looked good.

 

[Gniwder]

I agree, but the easier step is to just reduce Seider's ice time. He has not looked good.

.... it's like Fester reads my posts, lol.


SKATERS G A +/- S PIM TOI H BS TA GA

Hronek 0 0 -2 1 0 22:39 2 2 0 2

Oesterle 0 0 0 1 2 20:02 1 1 0 0
Walman 0 0 0 1 0 19:08 1 1 0 0

Maatta 0 0 -1 0 0 18:58 0 1 0 0

Chiarot 0 0 -1 1 0 17:45 2 2 0 0
Seider 0 0 -1 0 0 17:29 0 4 0 1

 

[MBH]

Raymond's goal scoring is on par with last season - about 1 every four games.
His production is down from .69 to .60 points/game. I'd say that's not super surprising given the bouncing around lines this year.
His shots per game are down slightly.
His even strength scoring is down. PP production is up.

Kind of a wash - but a bit disappointing because you hope for growth.

Is Raymond gonna be a Pastrnak? Man, I wouldn't bet on that. But would what about an 8x$6.5M offer. Would he bite on that? Or is that insane?

On Moritz Seider, His points/game are down. His plus/minus is way worse.
His 5 on 5 production is pretty solid - even slightly better than last year.
His CF% and GF% are way worse.

The thing that makes Seider's numbers a bit worrying is that this team, so far, has been better than last year.

Seider has been a good player. But it's more of a mixed bag and there's a lot of sloppiness/erraticness that we didn't see last year.

I wonder if we could get Seider at 8x$7.5M.

Those contracts for Seider and Raymond might pose some WTF moments early... but I think they could look like steals in 3-4 years.

 

[MBH]

He did those short deals for EVERYONE at Tampa. Before Tampa was any kind of great team. I've written that damn list in here many times, and the history won't change.

Same will happen at Detroit. Same has already happened at Detroit. Yzerman still hasn't offered longer than 4-year deal for own team player like Mantha and traded Mantha away 6 months after the signing, for a shorter-deal guy. The short-deal bargain is always there. He goes that way. When the player is on a shorter deal, they want a better next deal, and they are hungry, more motivated.

For UFAs, Yzerman has gone 4 and 5 years with Chiarot and Copp. Those are his long-term deals. Proven vets.

8-year fair deal makes many players happy. They stop giving up 110%. I think Larkin deserves that, and his effort won't change no matter what the term is. Seider is the same, but his time will come after the next 4-5 year deal.

None of Yzerman's long term pieces have have been up for contracts - so you can't credibly act like you know how he'll do it.

Make the 8-year deals now. These should be the highest paid deals of these players' careers because this is when they'll be most valuable.
22-29. The prime years.

Hopefully we have our cups by 29 and then it really doesn't matter what happens.
If not you're setting yourselves up for Price/Huberdeau disaster deals

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

None of Yzerman's long term pieces have have been up for contracts - so you can't credibly act like you know how he'll do it.

Make the 8-year deals now. These should be the highest paid deals of these players' careers because this is when they'll be most valuable.
22-29. The prime years.

Hopefully we have our cups by 29 and then it really doesn't matter what happens.
If not you're setting yourselves up for Price/Huberdeau disaster deals

What.
Did he or did he not sign Steven Stamkos (a full UFA mind you) to an 8x8.5M contract?
Did he or did he not sign Viktor Hedman to a full-term deal?

There is boatloads of evidence on how Yzerman handles his negotiations, but you choose not to look at it.

That's all well and good if you want to lock them up now... but

1) Players see what other players are getting. You don't get the cheap long term deal anymore because Toronto's guys got money and term. McDavid got money and term. This isn't the era where Roman Josi signs a 4M contract for long term. Also, perhaps Lucas Raymond or Moritz Seider or their agents might look at UFA and say "that's when I can get my big payday, even if it's from Detroit".

2) Or... you sign one or both to a bridge of a year or two, they stay pretty steady in their development and you get them for roughly the same cap percentage two years from now as you do now. Why would you want to waste cheap years of a long term deal on a team that you don't think is any good?

and lastly? Price and Huberdeau are ludicrously terrible choices for "disaster deals". Huberdeau is still a top flight wing and Carey Price is literally the reason that Montreal has been ANYTHING at all in the past decade. Hell, he almost backstopped a crazily undertalented Habs roster to the Cup in the COVID year. You could have pointed out any deals like I don't know... Jeff Skinner... and you focused on ones signed by good players who have performed well?

 

[MBH]

What.
Did he or did he not sign Steven Stamkos (a full UFA mind you) to an 8x8.5M contract?
Did he or did he not sign Viktor Hedman to a full-term deal?

There is boatloads of evidence on how Yzerman handles his negotiations, but you choose not to look at it.

That's all well and good if you want to lock them up now... but

1) Players see what other players are getting. You don't get the cheap long term deal anymore because Toronto's guys got money and term. McDavid got money and term. This isn't the era where Roman Josi signs a 4M contract for long term. Also, perhaps Lucas Raymond or Moritz Seider or their agents might look at UFA and say "that's when I can get my big payday, even if it's from Detroit".

2) Or... you sign one or both to a bridge of a year or two, they stay pretty steady in their development and you get them for roughly the same cap percentage two years from now as you do now. Why would you want to waste cheap years of a long term deal on a team that you don't think is any good?

and lastly? Price and Huberdeau are ludicrously terrible choices for "disaster deals". Huberdeau is still a top flight wing and Carey Price is literally the reason that Montreal has been ANYTHING at all in the past decade. Hell, he almost backstopped a crazily undertalented Habs roster to the Cup in the COVID year. You could have pointed out any deals like I don't know... Jeff Skinner... and you focused on ones signed by good players who have performed well?

Right.
Carey Price;
Year 5 now.
$50.25M
154 games.
So that's $300,000 a game.
75 wins. So about $600,000 a win
2.66 GAA and a .911 sv pct.
Year 5.
In three of those seasons he's played 25 games or less.

That's not value.

That's what happens when you sign 30 years to 8 year deals.

Huberdeau's new $10.5M deal hasn't even started yet and Flames fans already have buyer's remorse.
21 games 4-9-13.

What a disaster. That's the kind of contract that spells rebuild.