Speculation: Way too early Seider/Raymond extension predictions

[Henkka]

Both estimations coming down...

Raymond last year 0.70 points per game, 0.59 this year. (16% drop on production)
Seider last year 0.61 points per game, 0.35 this year. (43% drop on production)

Raymond combined 2-seasons: 99 games, 29+38=67 points (0.68 ppg)
comparable Tim Stutzle 2-seasons: 95 games, 28+47=75 points (0.79 ppg)

So 0.79 ppg with equal ice-time and role was worth 8.35M for 8-years. Raymond being with 14% lesser production would pretty much mean 14% cheaper contract. So it's ~7.2M for 8 years.

But I don't think he deserves to go 8-year way, Yzerman will make a shorter bridge. Stutzle estimations for 3-4-5 year deals were between 6.0M - 6.7M. When cutting that 14% away, that would mean 5.2M-5.8M valued 3-4-5 year deal options for Raymond.

 

[RRhoads]

Also keep in mind that Stutzle is a center.

 

[Pavels Dog]

But I don't think he deserves to go 8-year way,

Locking Seider & Raymond up to 8 year deals is priority #1, #2 and #3. Priority #4 is cap hit.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

Why make a fair deal?

Teams that make fair deals will end to mediocrity.

You have to make BARGAIN DEALS to have success. The key is to be a bit unfair.

You make a fair deal because

1) Players talk and if you f*** them over, everyone will hear about it.
2) I think you're referencing stuff like MacKinnon and Josi as "be a little unfair". Those were a different time where Josi getting 24m guaranteed right now was a deal he was happy with and then he grew to be one of the best D in the league. MacKinnon was a 50-60 point C when he got his 6x6 contract. He was happy to get that and then exploded into one of the top 3 players in the league.
3) You make bargain deals for the guys down your lineup. You try to find the Kubalik who will give you $6M play for $2.5M salary. You do not press your superstars for bargains.

Now, for number 3 here, you can have the discussions and say "you do this and we can put more around you" which is I believe the key that Yzerman used in Tampa and Detroit used in his playing years. That's how you get a guy like Kucherov to sign for 9.5M after an MVP-level season or two. It's how you get Steven Stamkos to sign for 8x8.5. Also, you're not going cheap on them as Stammer got pretty much equivalent or more to stay in Tampa that he would have to leave in total.

 

[Henkka]

Locking Seider & Raymond up to 8 year deals is priority #1, #2 and #3. Priority #4 is cap hit.

Yzerman will disagree.

Now, for number 3 here, you can have the discussions and say "you do this and we can put more around you" which is I believe the key that Yzerman used in Tampa and Detroit used in his playing years. That's how you get a guy like Kucherov to sign for 9.5M after an MVP-level season or two.

This is the KEY.

Leave something on the table and you know that the team will be overall better. It's just if you snag 10% from every position of every contract. That will become a heck of a contender, if everyone is a bit, but equally underpaid.

Team before individual, this unselfish attitude = winning contender attitude. It's that simple.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

Yzerman will disagree.



This is the KEY.

Leave something on the table and you know that the team will be overall better. It's just if you snag 10% from every position of every contract. That will become a heck of a contender, if everyone is a bit, but equally underpaid.

Team before individual, this unselfish attitude = winning contender attitude. It's that simple.

But you don't walk into those discussions right now and try to pull that trick. You do that when you have a clear path to success and it's evident. Right now, it's way way too early for Yzerman to play that type of game with his guys. It worked in Tampa because they were on their way to winning Cups when he started. They weren't routinely outside of the playoffs.

 

[HisNoodliness]

But you don't walk into those discussions right now and try to pull that trick. You do that when you have a clear path to success and it's evident. Right now, it's way way too early for Yzerman to play that type of game with his guys. It worked in Tampa because they were on their way to winning Cups when he started. They weren't routinely outside of the playoffs.

He did sign Stamkos to a 5 year $7.5 million in 2011 before the team had really any of its current star power, and he was coming off consecutive 90 point, 50 and 40 goal seasons as a first overall pick. Sure when Yzerman played super hardball in renegotiations 5 years later, he had "we're probably going to win a cup if you help us afford to build the team," but there really wasn't much going for the Lightning besides Stamkos when he signed that 7.5 mil deal. Hedman didn't start nearly as hot as Stamkos, but Yzerman signed him to only 4 mil the year after.

So I really do think that this is an Yzerman culture thing and he's going to try to start the "take a discount to build a winner" mentality immediately. I honestly think it's the right call because otherwise you run into "alright, I see why you want me to take a discount, but why'd you give Seider/Raymond such a juicy contract if you won't give it to me for performing at a similar level?" whenever we try to sign anyone else and start asking for a team friendly deal. It has to be a "we're a team-first, cap-friendly, no exceptions, kind of organization and that's how it's just going to be" if you want this to work.

 

[Henkka]

But you don't walk into those discussions right now and try to pull that trick. You do that when you have a clear path to success and it's evident. Right now, it's way way too early for Yzerman to play that type of game with his guys. It worked in Tampa because they were on their way to winning Cups when he started. They weren't routinely outside of the playoffs.

He did those short deals for EVERYONE at Tampa. Before Tampa was any kind of great team. I've written that damn list in here many times, and the history won't change.

Same will happen at Detroit. Same has already happened at Detroit. Yzerman still hasn't offered longer than 4-year deal for own team player like Mantha and traded Mantha away 6 months after the signing, for a shorter-deal guy. The short-deal bargain is always there. He goes that way. When the player is on a shorter deal, they want a better next deal, and they are hungry, more motivated.

For UFAs, Yzerman has gone 4 and 5 years with Chiarot and Copp. Those are his long-term deals. Proven vets.

8-year fair deal makes many players happy. They stop giving up 110%. I think Larkin deserves that, and his effort won't change no matter what the term is. Seider is the same, but his time will come after the next 4-5 year deal.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Yzerman will disagree.

We'll see. You seem to be using 10 year old examples. The league is changing constantly. We're seeing teams give out more and more long-term deals to young players because it has become the smart thing to do. Especially heading into some big cap increases in coming years.

Signing guys like Raymond or Seider to 4-5 year deals ensures that they will get massive, massive pay increases smack in the middle of our competitive window.

 

[Henkka]

We'll see. You seem to be using 10 year old examples. The league is changing constantly. We're seeing teams give out more and more long-term deals to young players because it has become the smart thing to do. Especially heading into some big cap increases in coming years.

Signing guys like Raymond or Seider to 4-5 year deals ensures that they will get massive, massive pay increases smack in the middle of our competitive window.

Yzerman examples from very near Detroit history is pretty short-term heavy. Those Tampa examples are old yeah, but in general it's starting to be a decade-long policy until proven othervise.

5-year deals for Raymond and Seider will give us huge compeitive advantage before their next deals. Larkin Cup window is on that timeline. I see Yzerman building for that window, not wo Raymond Seider window. They could their prime during that window, though.

I don't see a problem for those future big deals, because the cap is gonna rise like hell in few years. these tight years are problematic for others and that could open some Cup possibility sooner than expected.

I see us doing Tampa-style final-journey (2015) in next 2-3 years.

 

[norrisnick]

I'm starting #fireSteve if he gives either a 5yr deal leading them directly to UFA.

 

[haulinbass]

We'll see. You seem to be using 10 year old examples. The league is changing constantly. We're seeing teams give out more and more long-term deals to young players because it has become the smart thing to do. Especially heading into some big cap increases in coming years.

Signing guys like Raymond or Seider to 4-5 year deals ensures that they will get massive, massive pay increases smack in the middle of our competitive window.

I agree with taking chances on certain core pieces and signing to max term right away. We have no idea when and if this team is going to be a legit playoff contender. We likely will need those cap hits working in our favor in years 5-7 as you said. If we are going to be a contender, it's a good guess to assume those will be very critical cap years that could either work for or against us depending on what Yzerman does.

Unfortunately Henkka might be right in the sense that Yzerman could opt for shorter deals. He seems to fall on that conservative side until players have enough track record. If he does go that way, hopefully we have the leverage to barter cup friendly contracts the next go around. Sure seems like a plan that could blow up in our face though and really hurt our window that we potentially have a decade into reaching.

I think we will just have to see. I think it might depend a bit on what guys like Seider and Raymond do. Maybe they can be consistent enough by the end of their ELC that Yzerman will opt to go long-term.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Yzerman examples from very near Detroit history is pretty short-term heavy.

Because no players have been worth the 8-year investment. It's either been young players that need to prove themselves or veteran stopgaps.

 

[MBH]

We'll see. You seem to be using 10 year old examples. The league is changing constantly. We're seeing teams give out more and more long-term deals to young players because it has become the smart thing to do. Especially heading into some big cap increases in coming years.

Signing guys like Raymond or Seider to 4-5 year deals ensures that they will get massive, massive pay increases smack in the middle of our competitive window.

Not only that.
It creates the Larkin contract. Seider's new deal would start at 27. Raymond's at 26.
Realistically, they're probably worth it for the first 3-4 years of that deal, but then you've got a pretty brutal back 2-3 years, mostly likely.
An 8 year deal means you're making the same kind of decision at 29-30.
At that point, you're a bit deeper into the player's career.
8 year contracts should almost definitely be a no-go.
You might have enough back-side of the peak data to know that anything over 4 years is ridiculous.

Originally, i thought Holland's deal to Larkin was perfect. But I didn't realize how fast the league was going to lean towards young players getting paid.

In someway, that bridge deal is looking smarter and smarter.
Ideally, you'd want that monster money contract to go from what? 23-31? 24-32?
Probably depends on the player.

So what about Seider - 2x8.5
Raymond - 2x.7.5
-
And then get them their prime time deals the next year.
You've extended your grip on their prime until 32-33 years old.

You've got to something to avoid 8 year deals starting at 30-years old.

 

[Henkka]

Tough to nitice, how Lucas Raymond has been our worst forward in last 8 games.

This is a 5-on-5 sample of last 8 games, when the roster has been pretty same. Czarnik is the only 1 game guy in here. Others have at least 7 games.

It was interesting, how the Kubalik-Larkin-X 1st line played their worst game of the season against Sabres, when Raymond was moved there. And all other 2-3-4 lines worked pretty well.

Can't say much else than sophomore jinx is real. Seider is also at as deep waters.

Realism is, that these two kids are our biggest underachievers at the moment. Maybe we are expecting too much from them, but it is what it is.

Hope they will figure everything out soon.

 

[SwedeChristoffer]

Tough to nitice, how Lucas Raymond has been our worst forward in last 8 games.

This is a 5-on-5 sample of last 8 games, when the roster has been pretty same. Czarnik is the only 1 game guy in here. Others have at least 7 games.

View attachment 615425

It was interesting, how the Kubalik-Larkin-X 1st line played their worst game of the season against Sabres, when Raymond was moved there. And all other 2-3-4 lines worked pretty well.

Can't say much else than sophomore jinx is real. Seider is also at as deep waters.

Realism is, that these two kids are our biggest underachievers at the moment. Maybe we are expecting too much from them, but it is what it is.

Hope they will figure everything out soon.

I guess you can find anything if you look for it. Why did you choose that particular number of games? 8?

To me Raymonds season has gone like this: 7 first games, crap. 13 next games one of the best forwards on the team (only Larkin has more points, only first line has better xGF%). Then he has had 2 games where ha has been crap again, so bad that it drags down your 8 game sample.

 

[norrisnick]

I guess you can find anything if you look for it. Why did you choose that particular number of games? 8?

To me Raymonds season has gone like this: 7 first games, crap. 13 next games one of the best forwards on the team (only Larkin has more points, only first line has better xGF%). Then he has had 2 games where ha has been crap again, so bad that it drags down your 8 game sample.

Hennka gets twitchy if there are double digit data points.

 

[Henkka]

I guess you can find anything if you look for it. Why did you choose that particular number of games? 8?

I wrote it already.

The roster has been almost identical for last 7-8 games. No injuries and not much line suffling. That caused some messy data at earlier part of the season.

It just caught in my eye, when Raymond was at 2nd line, everybody blaimed how it "is so bad because of Copp and how Larkin belongs to 1st line". When Raymond gets moved to 1st line, it becomes our worst line. And Copp goes to 3rd line and he has no problem with production. Also the new 2nd line gets easily positive numbers vs. Buffalo. Only line with negative numbers was Kubalik-Larkin-Raymond.

After these mutual eye-test feelings I went to watch data from latest games. This time, from last 8 games and I was surpriced that Raymond is the worst 5-on-5 player on xGF%.

No any agenda in here, just telling the truth by numbers. Raymond is struggling.

 

[Henkka]

This is also the goal count from last 8 games at defence. 5-on-5.

It's unbelieveabe how those 2 pairs are so great and have all the puck luck, when Chiarot-Seider is taking all the goals in.

All 3 pairs together are positive as consensus, but still crazy how one can be so bad and those other 2 so overly good.

Walman still hasn't been on the ice for single goal scored at this season.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

View attachment 615552

This is also the goal count from last 8 games at defence. 5-on-5.

It's unbelieveabe how those 2 pairs are so great and have all the puck luck, when Chiarot-Seider is taking all the goals in.

All 3 pairs together are positive as consensus, but still crazy how one can be so bad and those other 2 so overly good.

Walman still hasn't been on the ice for single goal scored at this season.

They need to change the pairs.

Walman - Seider
Chiarot - Oesterle/Lindstrom

 

[SwedeChristoffer]

I wrote it already.

The roster has been almost identical for last 7-8 games. No injuries and not much line suffling. That caused some messy data at earlier part of the season.

It just caught in my eye, when Raymond was at 2nd line, everybody blaimed how it "is so bad because of Copp and how Larkin belongs to 1st line". When Raymond gets moved to 1st line, it becomes our worst line. And Copp goes to 3rd line and he has no problem with production. Also the new 2nd line gets easily positive numbers vs. Buffalo. Only line with negative numbers was Kubalik-Larkin-Raymond.

After these mutual eye-test feelings I went to watch data from latest games. This time, from last 8 games and I was surpriced that Raymond is the worst 5-on-5 player on xGF%.

No any agenda in here, just telling the truth by numbers. Raymond is struggling.

And I'm just telling you that you are using the numbers incorrectly. Because Raymond hasn't struggled for 8 games. He has struggled for 2.

In the first 6 of those 8 games Raymond is behind only first line and Bertuzzi in xGF%, and only Perron and Larkin scored more points than his 6.

Then comes the Leafs and the Sabres game and he has a by far worst xGF% of 25% and 0 points.

Thus the data ia actually saying that Raymond has struggled the past 2 games, and prior to that he has been playing well for the past 13 games.


Personally I liked the 2nd line of Bertuzzi - Copp - Raymond, it was a bit up and down (essentially every other game they were crap, and every other game they were the best line). Shame that they broke it up because I thought they actually had potential.

 

[Gniwder]

They need to change the pairs.

Walman - Seider
Chiarot - Oesterle/Lindstrom

Dude..... I'd rather see Amber Heard shitting her bed.

Let's not let the stats deceive us into thinking Oesterle or Walman are good enough to handle first pair matchups. It's gonna have to be the second pair that gets broken up.

Quite frankly, none of it will help until Seider plays like last season. If he's injured then they should sit him out and play Lindstrom. I think he is.... you don't go from elite level leveraging to looking like DDK any other way.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Dude..... I'd rather see Amber Heard shitting her bed.

Let's not let the stats deceive us into thinking Oesterle or Walman are good enough to handle first pair matchups. It's gonna have to be the second pair that gets broken up.

Quite frankly, none of it will help until Seider plays like last season. If he's injured then they should sit him out and play Lindstrom. I think he is.... you don't go from elite level leveraging to looking like DDK any other way.

Walman has been playing pretty good, my dude. Quick puck movement, getting in passing lanes, and defending the rush well. He's pretty much been doing what the Chiarot-Seider pairing has not been doing well.

 

[Gniwder]

Walman has been playing pretty good, my dude. Quick puck movement, getting in passing lanes, and defending the rush well. He's pretty much been doing what the Chiarot-Seider pairing has not been doing well.

Limited sample size against low level competition, averaging around 15 minutes a game. If Walman/Oesterle pair was that good, Fester could just increase their ice time.

Regardless, Seider is the one that needs to be moved down, not Chiarot. Chiarot-Oesterle is not a first pair.


Edit: Maybe the easiest solution here is to just reduce ice time for Seider and Chiarot, and see how the other pairings do against tougher competition.

 

[Detroit Knights]

Walman has been playing pretty good, my dude. Quick puck movement, getting in passing lanes, and defending the rush well. He's pretty much been doing what the Chiarot-Seider pairing has not been doing well.

Walman has been a pleasant surprise. There was a lot of hype on the boards, as far as waiting for him and us needing him, but I kept my reservations. Anything had to be better than Hagg tbh. But watching Walman has been great and keeping stability on the third line with Oesterle that everyone hates (seems like).