Speculation: Way too early Seider/Raymond extension predictions

[Indrid Cold]

I know it's early, but what's your best guest on contract extensions for these two.

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[GrindLinePod]

Give me Raymond on a bridge at 3x$5 and Seider an 8x$9.5

 

[Henkka]

We kind of had the same discussion already in here:

Do upcoming contracts for Seider and Raymond change the timeline?

Seider looks like a top 15 D already and will probably be looking for somewhere around 10M/season once his rookie contract is up. Raymond is a bit harder to predict but I don’t think it’s unreasonable to think he looks for around 6-7M after his rookie contract is up if he continues to develop on...

forums.hfboards.com

 

[kliq]

Give me Raymond on a bridge at 3x$5 and Seider an 8x$9.5

Ya, I’d probably agree to something similar. Obviously how this year plays out though will be a factor as well.

 

[GrindLinePod]

Ya, I’d probably agree to something similar. Obviously how this year plays out though will be a factor as well.

Yep, I'm going off of last season plus the way to early start this season.

 

[Henkka]

One thing, which is sure, is that both guys caphits are coming down thanks to sophomore jinx -styled production.

Last season Raymond produced full 82-game season with 0.70 ppg, and this current season has been 0.44 ppg.
2-seasons combined: 0.67 ppg. This is the current most important number.

Maybe best comparable for Raymond will be Tim Stützle, who has been scoring 0.73 ppg on last 2 seasons. If Stutzle got 8.3M for 8 years, Raymond should get ~9% less --> 1M less 7.3M with 8-year deal.

But I think Yzerrman will bridge him, and that will be much much cheaper. Something like 5.5-5.7M for Raymond

 

[Henkka]

Seider also isn't doing favors for himself.

Ice-time is down from last year 23:02 --> 21:55 avg mins.
Production is down after 82-game season, from 0.61 ppg to 0.22 ppg.
2-season avg: 0.57 ppg. This is the current most important number.

Quinn Hughes got 6-years, 7.85M after scoring 0.83 ppg on last 2 seasons. Seider is not anywhere close that prodiction, and Hughes has also logged higher minutes.

Rasmus Dahlin got 3-years, 6.0M after scoring 0.58 ppg on last 2 seasons. Seider is quite close this, with also total minutes.

One close comparable for Seider is also Noah Dobson, who scored 0.52 ppg on last 2 seasons. But his ice-time is lower (+19min), think it has big impact on defencemen contracts with production too.
Dobson got 3-year deal, with only 4.0M caphit.

So there's lower comparables and higher comparables. I think closest Seider comparable is that Dahlin-contract, and Yzerman will bridge him too. Maybe goes a bit longer for 5-years like he did with HEdman and gives a bit more money, like 6.5M.

8-year deal will come after that.

One thing is clear, Seider isn't a comparable for Cale Makar, until he starts producing like Cale Makar. Makar has scored 1.07 points per game on last 2 seasons, and Seider is currently only half of that.

Makar scored 0.88 points per game on his rookie season, and 1.00 per game on his 2nd season. His average after 2 seasons was 0.93 points per game.

 

[norrisnick]

I'll die on the hill that a 5 year deal for either is the absolute worst option. You do not take these kids directly to UFA.

 

[Indrid Cold]

Give me Raymond on a bridge at 3x$5 and Seider an 8x$9.5

I'd take that in a heart beat.

 

[Henkka]

Quite sure Seider can't get anyhow more than Quinn Hughes, if he doesn't start producing even near like Hughes did during his ELC.

0.75 points per game and 22:08 average ice-time.

You guys just think too much about Seider. He never sees 9.5M after ELC, until some better production will happen.

Problem is, that you guys know Seider is damn good. BUT, NHL contracts are too much based on production. Seider isn't enough productive to become expensive. He is damn effective for our team in general, but he is not productive. He will be a steal for years, maybe for a decade.

Just like Hedman, who is still a bargain for next 3 seasons.

 

[norrisnick]

Heiskanen and Chabot. Why would Lemieux look at any other comparables but those two?

 

[Pavels Dog]

Give me Raymond on a bridge at 3x$5 and Seider an 8x$9.5

I really don't see the purpose of a bridge unless you're worried about him not being as good as we hope/think.

If they're willing to go 8 years, you go 8 years. Cap will only go up so we could even give them something ridiculous like matching 10 million dollar contracts and it would probably look like a steal 3 years from now.

 

[Henkka]

Heiskanen and Chabot. Why would Lemieux look at any other comparables but those two?

Yzerman is a smart man. Smarter than Claude f***ing Lemieux. He will avoid all those 8-year deals, because the comparables with 5 years deals are all underpaid.

Most of those 8-year deals are paid for potential, and some of them have half-busted. The AAVs are inflated, for no reason. They look overpaid and just forget offering 8-years. The timing is the thing to fool agents. Offer only terms where are mostly underpaid contract comparables. If those are found from like 2-year 5-year and 6-year options, offer only them.

 

[norrisnick]

Yzerman is a smart man. Smarter than Claude f***ing Lemieux. He will avoid all those 8-year deals, because the comparables with 5 years deals are all underpaid.

Most of those 8-year deals are paid for potential, and some of them have half-busted. The AAVs are inflated, for no reason. They look overpaid and just forget offering 8-years. The timing is the thing to fool agents. Offer only terms where are mostly underpaid contract comparables. If those are found from like 2-year 5-year and 6-year options, offer only them.

Based on what exactly?

 

[bedtime20]

Seider 8.5-9.8 x 8
Raymond 7.5-8.7 x 8

 

[GrindLinePod]

I really don't see the purpose of a bridge unless you're worried about him not being as good as we hope/think.

If they're willing to go 8 years, you go 8 years. Cap will only go up so we could even give them something ridiculous like matching 10 million dollar contracts and it would probably look like a steal 3 years from now.

I'm going based on last season plus his start but after last night it seems like he should be warmed up. I had him at around 70ish points on the season and if he gets that they should lock him up for this offseason.

 

[Number1RedWingsFan52]

Give me Raymond on a bridge at 3x$5 and Seider an 8x$9.5

Both deals are very fair, And i could see both deals going down next summer.

 

[MBH]

Yzerman is a smart man. Smarter than Claude f***ing Lemieux. He will avoid all those 8-year deals, because the comparables with 5 years deals are all underpaid.

Most of those 8-year deals are paid for potential, and some of them have half-busted. The AAVs are inflated, for no reason. They look overpaid and just forget offering 8-years. The timing is the thing to fool agents. Offer only terms where are mostly underpaid contract comparables. If those are found from like 2-year 5-year and 6-year options, offer only them.

A smart man understands 8-year deals make more sense to 21-22 year-olds than they do 28 year olds.

If you only sign Seider to a 4 year deal, by the time you're any good, you're going to get stuck paying 30-50% more for those peak years.

Take Cale Makar.
How much more would he get this off-season than he got in 2021/
He got 6x9m.
Right now, after winning the cup, the Norris and Conn Smythe.

He'd be getting $12.5M a year or more.

So if you're sure about these kids, lock them up now. 8 years.

 

[Henkka]

Both deals are very fair, And i could see both deals going down next summer.

Why make a fair deal?

Teams that make fair deals will end to mediocrity.

You have to make BARGAIN DEALS to have success. The key is to be a bit unfair.

 

[norrisnick]

Why make a fair deal?

Teams that make fair deals will end to mediocrity.

You have to make BARGAIN DEALS to have success. The key is to be a bit unfair.

Because when players spend half a decade as "the most underpaid player in the NHL" they take it personal and cash in at the next opportunity.

 

[Baaaaaaaaaaaaah]

Lock them up for 8 each. $$'s should be close they arent far off from each other IMO.

 

[Number1RedWingsFan52]

Moritz Seider anywhere between 8 x $9,500,000 to 8 x $10,000,000.

Lucas Raymond 8 x $8,350,000 similar to the Tim Stutzle deal.

 

[NickH8]

Because when players spend half a decade as "the most underpaid player in the NHL" they take it personal and cash in at the next opportunity.

Huge lesson I learned in negotiation class in business school. When there's a long term relationship you've gotta make a deal that makes BOTH sides happy. Otherwise it'll bite you in the ass. I'd honestly rather pay Seider 8 mil instead of 5 or 6 (I have no idea what numbers Henkka was specifically talking about I am at a late Halloween party and cranked on Jameson. The liquor is doing the math right now.)

 

[Gniwder]

They'll get less than Kubalik, lol.

 

[Perfect Human]

Seider 8x7.5-8.2
Raymond 8x6.3-7.1