W.A.R Results 2007-12

[Henkka]

Always just mind-boggling, how good defensively Pavel Datsyuk was.

Wonder how many points he left on the table, when he was doing that Super-Selke work. Could you WAR guys do some estimation?

Like, being more offensive (like at next level of those defensive guys, not on his own level) how many more points could he have collected?

 

[Plural]

Always just mind-boggling, how good defensively Pavel Datsyuk was.

Wonder how many points he left on the table, when he was doing that Super-Selke work. Could you WAR guys do some estimation?

Like, being more offensive (like at next level of those defensive guys, not on his own level) how many more points could he have collected?

It's incredibly hard to even guess. Dats had unorthodox style and I don't really see how one could separate his defensive game from offensive. Picking pockets and dangling opponents were often fluid plays which might have started as more offensive or defensive plays and ended in the opposite spectrum.

Some more or less simplistic styles like Lehtinen for example would be easier to differentiate since they played conventional defensive game that's more easily separated from offense.

 

[Henkka]

It's incredibly hard to even guess. Dats had unorthodox style and I don't really see how one could separate his defensive game from offensive. Picking pockets and dangling opponents were often fluid plays which might have started as more offensive or defensive plays and ended in the opposite spectrum.

Some more or less simplistic styles like Lehtinen for example would be easier to differentiate since they played conventional defensive game that's more easily separated from offense.

Can you separate the negative value of bad defence from best "offensive-only" forwards? Then reverse that in Datsyuk's case?

Just get some ballpark, that how many points he did lost, when his team gained that better defence.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Wonder how many points he left on the table, when he was doing that Super-Selke work.

Being good defensively doesn't hinder offensive production.

 

[VoluntaryDom]

If you go by some analytics, Ovechkin is RANCID defensively (which I think he kind of is tbh) and unimpressive at even strength.

A lot of my analytics friends make fun of him.

Based on these numbers, have other measures underrated his overall impact or do analytics people simply undervalue being a shoo-in for 50 goals?

well for one he wasnt always this bad defensively, so 07-12 is different numbers. secondly i dont know how @NHL WAR 's model measures defense and his page where he probably explains it is blocked on my school computer.

 

[wetcoast]

Not surprising Datsyuk is 2nd overall. Still crazy to me how he got drafted in the 6th round too

Not really as he was a project when drafted and people forget how long it took him to make an impact.

I say this as a huge fan of his and appreciate how underrated he is at times.

 

[NHL WAR]

Always just mind-boggling, how good defensively Pavel Datsyuk was.

Wonder how many points he left on the table, when he was doing that Super-Selke work. Could you WAR guys do some estimation?

Like, being more offensive (like at next level of those defensive guys, not on his own level) how many more points could he have collected?

I am not exactly sure how you could capture this statistically. You could probably get an estimate from watching video, but that would be very time consuming.

I guess if he weren't so great defensively, he would have a higher ratio of offensive to defensive zone starts. That would gain him a few points. It also has to be considered that his defensive wizardry gained him some points because Detroit didn't spend much time in their own end with him on the ice.

I think it is fair to say he would have cracked 100 points in both 2007-08 and 2008-09 if he was more offensively-orientated. I might look into it a bit more at another time to get a more exact range.

WAR lacks the familiarity of points, but it does show when a player's all around game overcomes their relatively lesser offense. Such as Datsyuk having a WAR in 08-09 with 97 points than Malkin with 113. Does that mean you can say Datsyuk could have scored 114+ points that year? Not neccessary, but it shows he had the same type of impact.

 

[NHL WAR]

well for one he wasnt always this bad defensively, so 07-12 is different numbers. secondly i dont know how @NHL WAR 's model measures defense and his page where he probably explains it is blocked on my school computer.

Delta corsi and expected goals against. League average, quality of teammates and zone starts are considered. Takeaways and blocked shots per corsi against are also a small factor.

 

[pvr]

Seems strange to see Kane hardly mentioned except at the very end where he ranks 11th in total WAR.

“... the numbers for all forwards seasons from 2007-08 to 2011-12”, which begins with both Kane and Toews rookie year.

 

[Amazinmets73]

Update?

 

[NHL WAR]

Update?

Expect a 2007-2019 forwards post next week. Then I'll start on defenseman

 

[JESSEWENEEDTOCOOK]

Really wonder how Dustin Brown is so good at penalty differential.

He is elite at flopping

 

[Amazinmets73]

Awesome; can't wait!

 

[Merrrlin]

This matches the eye test pretty damn well.

	WAR
DAVID.PASTRNAK (BOS)	4.9
NATHAN.MACKINNON (COL)	4.9
ARTEMI.PANARIN (NYR)	4.8
CONNOR.MCDAVID (EDM)	4.7
BRAD.MARCHAND (BOS)	4.5
AUSTON.MATTHEWS (TOR)	4.2
LEON.DRAISAITL (EDM)	4.1
JONATHAN.HUBERDEAU (FLA)	4
NIKITA.KUCHEROV (T.B)	3.6
EVGENI.MALKIN (PIT)	3.6

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Drai below Panarin, Mackinnon, Pasta and Matthews

 

[Kranix]

Not surprising, never played in the NHL after Steve MacIntyre did this to him.



I am surprised to see Ethan Moreau that low, especially on defense. As I seem to recall he was always on our PK. But then again looking at our PK% we were not great.

I think he played one more game the next season after that.

 

[Amazinmets73]

This matches the eye test pretty damn well.

	WAR
DAVID.PASTRNAK (BOS)	4.9
NATHAN.MACKINNON (COL)	4.9
ARTEMI.PANARIN (NYR)	4.8
CONNOR.MCDAVID (EDM)	4.7
BRAD.MARCHAND (BOS)	4.5
AUSTON.MATTHEWS (TOR)	4.2
LEON.DRAISAITL (EDM)	4.1
JONATHAN.HUBERDEAU (FLA)	4
NIKITA.KUCHEROV (T.B)	3.6
EVGENI.MALKIN (PIT)	3.6

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Drai below Panarin, Mackinnon, Pasta and Matthews

Where did you find those stats?

 

[Whoshattenkirkshoes]

Pavel Datsyuk was criminally underrated and clearly still is. For some weird reason I like it that way.

 

[Whoshattenkirkshoes]

It’s a shame we only won one cup with the Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Lidstrom core. Secondary scoring never showed up outside of Franzen occasionally. We never had our DSP or Bickell to score clutch goals when the big guys weren’t dominating.

But we had Dan Cleary. Those were the days

 

[Whoshattenkirkshoes]

Again Getzy should be significantly higher than Perry. Without Getzlaf Perry wouldn’t have had nearly as many goals. I think maybe the model is undervaluing Getzlaf because of his pass first mentality. Because he was always the driver of the Ducks offense, Perry was more of a complimentary piece.

Look Getzlaf was a BEAST. His issue was he took nights off. When he was on his game he was elite.



A true hockey person knows this

 

[Paul4587]

Look Getzlaf was a BEAST. His issue was he took nights off. When he was on his game he was elite.



A true hockey person knows this

Perry took more nights off and wasn’t as good when he was on.

A true hockey person knows this.

 

[BeastoftheEast85]

List actually looks valid over this period. Crosby at first looks a little low but makes sense as you could reasonably say Malkin was an equal player over this period which this shows. Good to see Elias make the cut. Even in his 30s was fantastic player and certainly one of the mister underrated in the league.

 

[Whoshattenkirkshoes]

Perry took more nights off and wasn’t as good when he was on.

A true hockey person knows this.

For sure. I’m just talking Getzlaf. He had a bigger “switch”

 

[Henkka]

He is elite at flopping

He should try high-jumping!