W.A.R Results 2007-12

[TeddyBare]

Things that stuck out?

1. Dustin Brown he may be washed now, but he was a pretty good pest back in the day. That penalty differential is unexpected . I mean Wow
2. David Clarkson I guess I just didnt expect him to be bottom 5 in the entire NHL in passing.
3. Todd Bertuzzi I'm guessing he had maybe one of the best penalty differentials in the entire NHL peak Vancouver, but for him to turn around and be worst in the NHL once out of vancouver is surprising to me.

 

[Paul4587]

From a Ducks perspective I can’t really agree with anything that ranks Perry over Getzlaf overall unless it’s purely based on the isolated Hart season. Getz was the significantly better player over that time frame.

 

[SotasicA]

He was an enforcer who sucked at hockey. He played for the Kings for a while.

He also wasn't very good at fighting. More of a hugger than a puncher.

 

[Regal]

Seems strange to see Kane hardly mentioned except at the very end where he ranks 11th in total WAR.

This cutoff is right before Kane really started putting up big numbers in the regular season in the lockout shortened season. I would imagine a 12-13 to current season list would have him quite high in several categories

 

[NHL WAR]

Really wonder how Dustin Brown is so good at penalty differential.

Yeah, you expect it would be a small, skilled speedster leading the way.

 

[NHL WAR]

Would be nice to see stats like this for other seasons.

Sure would. I've still got 2013, 13-14 and 14-15 to go for forwards. Then I'd like to share a spreadsheet with the full results. Ultimately, adding defenseman and goalies to the mix is the goal.

 

[NHL WAR]

To me at least Carter seems good defensively. Interesting to see him in the worst defensive category. Strange.

I didn't watch enough of Jeff Carter to really remember how he looked defensively back then. Though, I will say that the only reason he cracks that bottom 5 is the amount of minutes he played. On a shift by shift basis, there will be many players rated worse.

 

[NHL WAR]

From a Ducks perspective I can’t really agree with anything that ranks Perry over Getzlaf overall unless it’s purely based on the isolated Hart season. Getz was the significantly better player over that time frame.

Fair enough. FWIW, Getzlaf was rated the 26th best in that time frame. On a per 82 game basis, Perry was at 4.1 WAR, Getzlaf 3.9. That is a wash. And they both would've been higher than that if the cutoff was 10-11 instead of 11-12.

 

[The Head Crusher]

Raitis Ivanans

literally never heard of that guy in my life.

Not surprising, never played in the NHL after Steve MacIntyre did this to him.



I am surprised to see Ethan Moreau that low, especially on defense. As I seem to recall he was always on our PK. But then again looking at our PK% we were not great.

 

[S E P H]

What exactly is WAR and what does it take into account to come into fruition? I think the MLB has something similar and the best players tend to have the highest WAR, but not sure what it's based off of?

 

[Paul4587]

Fair enough. FWIW, Getzlaf was rated the 26th best in that time frame. On a per 82 game basis, Perry was at 4.1 WAR, Getzlaf 3.9. That is a wash. And they both would've been higher than that if the cutoff was 10-11 instead of 11-12.

Again Getzy should be significantly higher than Perry. Without Getzlaf Perry wouldn’t have had nearly as many goals. I think maybe the model is undervaluing Getzlaf because of his pass first mentality. Because he was always the driver of the Ducks offense, Perry was more of a complimentary piece.

 

[NHL WAR]

What exactly is WAR and what does it take into account to come into fruition? I think the MLB has something similar and the best players tend to have the highest WAR, but not sure what it's based off of?

This should explain it: Kevin`s Corner: Wins Above Replacement
Basically, a player is compared to league average in a bunch of relevant statistics (goals, assists, penalties, faceoffs, etc). The stats are separated by game state (even strength, power play, penalty kill) and weighted differently. Then they are credited for their time on ice to account for the difference between an average player and a minimum salary, replacement level player. The results are expressed as wins in an attempt to measure the impact a player had on their team's record. So Alex Ovechkin's 9 WAR in 2007-08 is saying that the Capitals would've dropped from 43 wins to 34 if Joe Tweener took his spot on the top line.

 

[NHL WAR]

Again Getzy should be significantly higher than Perry. Without Getzlaf Perry wouldn’t have had nearly as many goals. I think maybe the model is undervaluing Getzlaf because of his pass first mentality. Because he was always the driver of the Ducks offense, Perry was more of a complimentary piece.

Teammates connected at the hip are one thing the model can't account for. One reason that it isn't perfect. That's why you still have to watch the games to identify who is the straw that stirs the drink on each line.

 

[Scandale du Jour]

Crosby being fifth despite missing close to a 100 games during that time frame means that he was freaking dominant when playing?

 

[NHL WAR]

Crosby being fifth despite missing close to a 100 games during that time frame means that he was freaking dominant when playing?

Yes. He was on pace to have more than 10 WAR in both 2010-11 and 2011-12.

 

[LarKing]

It’s a shame we only won one cup with the Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Lidstrom core. Secondary scoring never showed up outside of Franzen occasionally. We never had our DSP or Bickell to score clutch goals when the big guys weren’t dominating.

 

[Amazinmets73]

This is great. Is there any info for defenseman? If so I'd like to request the top 10 defenseman of the past 10 years and the highest WAR year by a dman

 

[NHL WAR]

This is great. Is there any info for defenseman? If so I'd like to request the top 10 defenseman of the past 10 years and the highest WAR year by a dman

Thanks. Unfortunately I have nothing for defenseman at this point. I do plan on it, though, and will be sure to post the results. Same goes for goalies.

 

[Machinehead]

If you go by some analytics, Ovechkin is RANCID defensively (which I think he kind of is tbh) and unimpressive at even strength.

A lot of my analytics friends make fun of him.

Based on these numbers, have other measures underrated his overall impact or do analytics people simply undervalue being a shoo-in for 50 goals?

 

[NHL WAR]

Based on these numbers, have other measures underrated his overall impact or do analytics people simply undervalue being a shoo-in for 50 goals?

Yes and no. I do think some circles undervalue consistency ( such as scoring 50 every year). A statistic that measured the similarity of a player's performance game to game and season to season would be insightful, IMO.

As for other metrics underrating his performance, it depends what season you're looking at. If it doesnt give top marks to 2007-10 Ovi, yeah there is something wrong. I don't think it is wrong to rate modern day Ovi as more of a second tier star, though. Particularly if the stat is looking at the efficiency of the results, not just the bulk totals. This same stat only had him as the 19th best forward from 2015-19. Granted, 2016-17 was an off year for him.

His overall play has slipped, but scoring goals is the most important thing in hockey and he is still the most dependable lamp lighter.

 

[Demandedace]

If you go by some analytics, Ovechkin is RANCID defensively (which I think he kind of is tbh) and unimpressive at even strength.

A lot of my analytics friends make fun of him.

Based on these numbers, have other measures underrated his overall impact or do analytics people simply undervalue being a shoo-in for 50 goals?

Anyone who says Ovechkin is unimpressive at even strength has an opinion that you shouldn’t pay any attention to

 

[Amazinmets73]

Thanks. Unfortunately I have nothing for defenseman at this point. I do plan on it, though, and will be sure to post the results. Same goes for goalies.

Awesome, I can't wait. I'm very curious as to the overall value of defenceman in comparison to fowards, particularly defensive defenseman. My belief is that we will find that strong offense/weak defense is always more valuable than the reverse, even for defenseman.

It's widely believed forwards are the best players (I'd agree) and d-men play D simply because they can't play offense.

 

[K Fleur]

If you go by some analytics, Ovechkin is RANCID defensively (which I think he kind of is tbh) and unimpressive at even strength.

A lot of my analytics friends make fun of him.

Based on these numbers, have other measures underrated his overall impact or do analytics people simply undervalue being a shoo-in for 50 goals?

This is the nerdiest thing I've ever read on HF

 

[Machinehead]

This is the nerdiest thing I've ever read on HF

That's because they're all f***ing nerds.

@DominicBoltsFan you're a nerd.

 

[The Wizard of Oz]

Great content! I recommend posting it in the History of Hockey board for more opinions and discussion. I’d say the most surprising name on the list is Langkow ranked top 5 on defense. Under the radar guy who I can’t remember ever being considered a selke contender. Looks like his best season was a top 9 finish.