W.A.R Results 2007-12

By NHL WAR · Feb 8, 2020 · Updated Feb 8, 2020
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  1. NHL WAR

    NHL WAR Registered User

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    WARNING: The following contains material consisting of the statistical construct Wins Above Replacement. If such a topic is not your cup of tea, there are countless other threads to spend your time perusing.



    If you are still reading there is a decent chance you have seen me ramble on about WAR before, but if not the link above should fill you in. The numbers for all forwards seasons from 2007-08 to 2011-12 have been crunched and I would like to share the results.

    First off, here are the top 15 individual seasons from that time frame (all columns except WAR are measured in "goals" not wins):

    PlayerShootingPassingDefenceFaceoffsPenalty
    Differential
    Rep.WAR
    Alex Ovechkin (07-08)405106179
    Evgeni Malkin (11-12)27241-12148.8
    Alex Ovechkin (09-10)3019200148.5
    Henrik Sedin (09-10)542100148.2
    Pavel Datsyuk (07-08)725716158
    Sidney Crosby (09-10)2418-12-1157.8
    Henrik Zetterberg (07-08)2212424147.6
    Zach Parise (08-09)2411503137.4
    Pavel Datsyuk (08-09)1023423137.3
    Daniel Sedin (10-11)1722200137.2
    Nicklas Backstrom (09-10)82930-1157.1
    Jarome Iginla (07-08)248203157
    Alex Ovechkin (08-09)317-200167
    Joe Thornton (07-08)225413156.7
    Claude Giroux (11-12)824-214146.7

    Do note that it is highly unlikely that WAR is accurate down to the last decimal point. Zach Parise at 7.4 or Daniel Sedin's 7.2, for example, is a toss up.


    Next up is the cumulative leaders in each component of WAR. In this case, the units are again "goals" not "wins".

    ShootingPassingDefence
    BestAlex Ovechkin129Henrik Sedin153Pavel Datsyuk28
    Steven Stamkos81Joe Thornton118Dainius Zubrus16
    Marian Gaborik73Nicklas Backstrom99Johan Franzen16
    Jeff Carter72Ryan Getzlaf90Daymond Langkow16
    Jarome Iginla65Sidney Crosby87Jonathan Toews16
    Ilya Kovalchuk65Pavel Datsyuk86Patrik Elias15
    Rick Nash64Evgeni Malkin85Ryan Getzlaf13
    Sidney Crosby63Daniel Sedin78Patrice Bergeron12
    Phil Kessel62Martin St.Louis73Daniel Sedin11
    Corey Perry60Mike Ribeiro66Ryan Kesler11
    WorstCraig Adams-31Eric Nystrom-33Jeff Carter-15
    Travis Moen-34Cal Clutterbuck-35Ethan Moreau-15
    Jerred Smithson-38Travis Moen-35Scott Hartnell-16
    Scott Gomez-40David Clarkson-38Eric Staal-17
    Samuel Pahlsson-46Jerred Smithson-39Joffrey Lupul-20



    FaceoffsPenalty DifferentialReplacement
    BestManny Malholtra13Dustin Brown34Martin St.Louis78
    David Steckel11Martin St.Louis19Ilya Kovalchuk76
    Patrice Bergeron11Pavel Datysuk17Jarome Iginla74
    Antoine Vermette11Zach Parise15Anze Kopitar74
    Jonathan Toews10Jarome Iginla13Alex Ovechkin73
    Jarret Stoll9Erik Cole13Eric Staal73
    Rod Brind`amour9Darren Helm12Joe Thornton71
    Paul Gaustad9Anze Kopitar12Patrick Marleau70
    Ryan Kesler9Evgeni Malkin12Dany Heatley70
    Boyd Gordon7Rick Nash11Corey Perry69
    WorstOlli Jokinen-6Todd Bertuzzi-11
    Evgeni Malkin-7Ryan Getzlaf-12
    Mike Ribeiro-7Jarret Stoll-12
    Eric Staal-7Mike Knuble-12
    Andrew Cogliano-8Chris Neil-13



    Finally, here are the 25 most (and 5 least) valuable forwards over that time frame.

    RankPlayer07-12 WAR
    1Alex Ovechkin32.7
    2Pavel Datsyuk30.6
    3Daniel Sedin27.7
    4Sidney Crosby27.6
    5Evgeni Malkin27.5
    6Henrik Sedin26.8
    7Joe Thornton26.3
    8Henrik Zetterberg25.6
    9Jonathan Toews23
    10Martin St.Louis23
    11Patrick Kane21.6
    12Anze Kopitar21.5
    13Nicklas Backstrom21.1
    14Corey Perry19.8
    15Marian Hossa19.7
    16Jason Spezza19.6
    17Marian Gaborik19.2
    18Patrick Marleau18.7
    19Eric Staal18.6
    20Rick Nash18.5
    21Ilya Kovalchuk18.3
    22Joe Pavelski18.3
    23Steven Stamkos18.3
    24Patrik Elias18
    25Ryan Kesler17.9



    07-12 WAR
    Colton Orr-4.9
    Raitis Ivanans-4
    Jerred Smithson-3.9
    Ethan Moreau-3.6
    Travis Moen-3.4

    If you found this interesting, I have some more yearly best and worst data here: Forwards WAR Results from 2007-12.

    During the all star break, I also ran the numbers for forwards this season. Here is the top 10:

    WAR
    DAVID.PASTRNAK (BOS)4.9
    NATHAN.MACKINNON (COL)4.9
    ARTEMI.PANARIN (NYR)4.8
    CONNOR.MCDAVID (EDM)4.7
    BRAD.MARCHAND (BOS)4.5
    AUSTON.MATTHEWS (TOR)4.2
    LEON.DRAISAITL (EDM)4.1
    JONATHAN.HUBERDEAU (FLA)4
    NIKITA.KUCHEROV (T.B)3.6
    EVGENI.MALKIN (PIT)3.6


    If you have any questions or data requests, I am happy to oblige.​
     
  2. Black Kevin

    Black Kevin Registered User

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    B-but... Don Cherry told me these soft euro fellas couldn't play:eek:

    edit. No but seriously, thanks for going through all that data. All I can say: Ovechkin is a f*cking freak!
     
    Last edited: Feb 8, 2020
  3. tsujimoto74

    tsujimoto74 Moderator

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    How does Eichel not crack the top 10 for this season? The Sabres might legitimately have <5 wins without him in the lineup, especially when you look at how many of his points have come on game-tying, go-ahead, and winning goals.
     
  4. SotasicA

    SotasicA Registered User

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    Huberdeau is legit.
     
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  5. TheMule93

    TheMule93 On a mule rides the swindler

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    i like this stat because it makes red wings players look good even though i dont know what it means
     
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  6. NHL WAR

    NHL WAR Registered User

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    To be honest, I asked myself the same thing. It is possible that the credit he gains for logging 22 minutes a night doesnt accurately offset the potential hit those minutes have on his per 60 rates. Additionally, as you pointed out, the importance of the goals he scores and the role he plays can't be perfectly captured by a calculation. That is why WAR is a starting point, not the be all end all. Regardless, he was 15th, behind Malkin by a pretty insignificant 0.4 WAR. I expect him to leapfrog a few guys by the end of the season.
     
  7. Vijo Morganstein

    Vijo Morganstein Registered User

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    I maintain there was a post-lockout big 4 of Ovi, Crosby, Malkin, and Datsyuk
     
  8. NHL WAR

    NHL WAR Registered User

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    This sentiment is probably shared by many of the people who cherry pick stats on this board. At least you have the honesty to say it. And yes, it really confirms how stacked those Red Wings teams were. The numbers for this year's team aren't quite so pretty, though
     
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  9. lottster14

    lottster14 Registered User

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    Not surprising Datsyuk is 2nd overall. Still crazy to me how he got drafted in the 6th round too
     
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  10. newfy

    newfy Registered User

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    To anyone who watched back then, even if he didnt have quite the offensive numbers f a couple other guys... no one controlled all aspects of the ice like Datsyuk out there. Not surprised hesas highly ranked as he was
     
  11. x Tame Impala

    x Tame Impala Registered User Sponsor

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    Seems strange to see Kane hardly mentioned except at the very end where he ranks 11th in total WAR.
     
  12. NHL WAR

    NHL WAR Registered User

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    Yeah, he just missed the cut in a few other lists. The consistency and above averageness across the board resulted in his high finish in total WAR.
     
  13. Jot

    Jot Registered User

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    So whats the flaw in this? Lists looks quite legit. Maybe adjustment for teammates?
     
  14. Brandon Reid

    Brandon Reid Registered User

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    The Sedins were so good.
     
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  15. NHL WAR

    NHL WAR Registered User

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    Thanks and yeah, more context in some components wouldn't hurt. Another worry is you can't be too sure of the quality of the source data for such things as shot attempts. Overall, though, I think it does a good job evaluating forwards, especially when given this large a sample size. The big challenge is creating a similar metric for defenseman.
     
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  16. McDNicks17

    McDNicks17 Moderator

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    Does WAR give less credit for secondary assists?

    Would explain Eichel's ranking a bit.
     
  17. tsujimoto74

    tsujimoto74 Moderator

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    One of the least talked-about star players out there. Barkov gets plenty of love (despite always showing up in "most underrated" discussions), but Huberdeau is legit flying under the radar.
     
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  18. NHL WAR

    NHL WAR Registered User

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    Yes, secondary assists receive about 20% less credit than primary. You are right, that would hurt Eichel a bit.
     
  19. ryan callahan

    ryan callahan Registered User

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    Really wonder how Dustin Brown is so good at penalty differential.
     
  20. Fantomas

    Fantomas Registered User

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    Would be nice to see stats like this for other seasons.
     
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  21. JoeyMickP

    JoeyMickP Registered User

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    This is generally how I judge things as well. I liked some names and their place on the lists therefore it must be ok.
     
  22. Breakers

    Breakers Registered User

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    Raitis Ivanans

    literally never heard of that guy in my life.
     
  23. GlitchMarner

    GlitchMarner Typical malevolent, devious & vile Maple Leafs fan

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    He was an enforcer who sucked at hockey. He played for the Kings for a while.
     
  24. Quid Pro Clowe

    Quid Pro Clowe Registered User

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    Part of why I love baseball is for these types of stats and analytics. Thank you, op. None of the names seem out of place, nor are there really any glaring omissions.
     
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  25. Sensators

    Sensators Registered User

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    To me at least Carter seems good defensively. Interesting to see him in the worst defensive category. Strange.
     

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