W.A.R Results 2007-12

NHL WAR

Registered User
Sep 29, 2018
959
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WARNING: The following contains material consisting of the statistical construct Wins Above Replacement. If such a topic is not your cup of tea, there are countless other threads to spend your time perusing.



If you are still reading there is a decent chance you have seen me ramble on about WAR before, but if not the link above should fill you in. The numbers for all forwards seasons from 2007-08 to 2011-12 have been crunched and I would like to share the results.

First off, here are the top 15 individual seasons from that time frame (all columns except WAR are measured in "goals" not wins):

PlayerShootingPassingDefenceFaceoffsPenalty
Differential
Rep.WAR
Alex Ovechkin (07-08)405106179
Evgeni Malkin (11-12)27241-12148.8
Alex Ovechkin (09-10)3019200148.5
Henrik Sedin (09-10)542100148.2
Pavel Datsyuk (07-08)725716158
Sidney Crosby (09-10)2418-12-1157.8
Henrik Zetterberg (07-08)2212424147.6
Zach Parise (08-09)2411503137.4
Pavel Datsyuk (08-09)1023423137.3
Daniel Sedin (10-11)1722200137.2
Nicklas Backstrom (09-10)82930-1157.1
Jarome Iginla (07-08)248203157
Alex Ovechkin (08-09)317-200167
Joe Thornton (07-08)225413156.7
Claude Giroux (11-12)824-214146.7
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Do note that it is highly unlikely that WAR is accurate down to the last decimal point. Zach Parise at 7.4 or Daniel Sedin's 7.2, for example, is a toss up.


Next up is the cumulative leaders in each component of WAR. In this case, the units are again "goals" not "wins".

Shooting Passing Defence
BestAlex Ovechkin129 Henrik Sedin153 Pavel Datsyuk28
Steven Stamkos81 Joe Thornton118 Dainius Zubrus16
Marian Gaborik73 Nicklas Backstrom99 Johan Franzen16
Jeff Carter72 Ryan Getzlaf90 Daymond Langkow16
Jarome Iginla65 Sidney Crosby87 Jonathan Toews16
Ilya Kovalchuk65 Pavel Datsyuk86 Patrik Elias15
Rick Nash64 Evgeni Malkin85 Ryan Getzlaf13
Sidney Crosby63 Daniel Sedin78 Patrice Bergeron12
Phil Kessel62 Martin St.Louis73 Daniel Sedin11
Corey Perry60 Mike Ribeiro66 Ryan Kesler11
WorstCraig Adams-31 Eric Nystrom-33 Jeff Carter-15
Travis Moen-34 Cal Clutterbuck-35 Ethan Moreau-15
Jerred Smithson-38 Travis Moen-35 Scott Hartnell-16
Scott Gomez-40 David Clarkson-38 Eric Staal-17
Samuel Pahlsson-46 Jerred Smithson-39 Joffrey Lupul-20
[TBODY] [/TBODY]



Faceoffs Penalty Differential Replacement
BestManny Malholtra13 Dustin Brown34 Martin St.Louis78
David Steckel11 Martin St.Louis19 Ilya Kovalchuk76
Patrice Bergeron11 Pavel Datysuk17 Jarome Iginla74
Antoine Vermette11 Zach Parise15 Anze Kopitar74
Jonathan Toews10 Jarome Iginla13 Alex Ovechkin73
Jarret Stoll9 Erik Cole13 Eric Staal73
Rod Brind`amour9 Darren Helm12 Joe Thornton71
Paul Gaustad9 Anze Kopitar12 Patrick Marleau70
Ryan Kesler9 Evgeni Malkin12 Dany Heatley70
Boyd Gordon7 Rick Nash11 Corey Perry69
WorstOlli Jokinen-6 Todd Bertuzzi-11
Evgeni Malkin-7 Ryan Getzlaf-12
Mike Ribeiro-7 Jarret Stoll-12
Eric Staal-7 Mike Knuble-12
Andrew Cogliano-8 Chris Neil-13
[TBODY] [/TBODY]



Finally, here are the 25 most (and 5 least) valuable forwards over that time frame.

RankPlayer07-12 WAR
1Alex Ovechkin32.7
2Pavel Datsyuk30.6
3Daniel Sedin27.7
4Sidney Crosby27.6
5Evgeni Malkin27.5
6Henrik Sedin26.8
7Joe Thornton26.3
8Henrik Zetterberg25.6
9Jonathan Toews23
10Martin St.Louis23
11Patrick Kane21.6
12Anze Kopitar21.5
13Nicklas Backstrom21.1
14Corey Perry19.8
15Marian Hossa19.7
16Jason Spezza19.6
17Marian Gaborik19.2
18Patrick Marleau18.7
19Eric Staal18.6
20Rick Nash18.5
21Ilya Kovalchuk18.3
22Joe Pavelski18.3
23Steven Stamkos18.3
24Patrik Elias18
25Ryan Kesler17.9
[TBODY] [/TBODY]



07-12 WAR
Colton Orr-4.9
Raitis Ivanans -4
Jerred Smithson-3.9
Ethan Moreau-3.6
Travis Moen-3.4
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

If you found this interesting, I have some more yearly best and worst data here: Forwards WAR Results from 2007-12.

During the all star break, I also ran the numbers for forwards this season. Here is the top 10:

WAR
DAVID.PASTRNAK (BOS)4.9
NATHAN.MACKINNON (COL)4.9
ARTEMI.PANARIN (NYR)4.8
CONNOR.MCDAVID (EDM)4.7
BRAD.MARCHAND (BOS)4.5
AUSTON.MATTHEWS (TOR)4.2
LEON.DRAISAITL (EDM)4.1
JONATHAN.HUBERDEAU (FLA)4
NIKITA.KUCHEROV (T.B)3.6
EVGENI.MALKIN (PIT)3.6
[TBODY] [/TBODY]


If you have any questions or data requests, I am happy to oblige.​
 

tsujimoto74

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May 28, 2012
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How does Eichel not crack the top 10 for this season? The Sabres might legitimately have <5 wins without him in the lineup, especially when you look at how many of his points have come on game-tying, go-ahead, and winning goals.
 

NHL WAR

Registered User
Sep 29, 2018
959
1,176
How does Eichel not crack the top 10 for this season? The Sabres might legitimately have <5 wins without him in the lineup, especially when you look at how many of his points have come on game-tying, go-ahead, and winning goals.

To be honest, I asked myself the same thing. It is possible that the credit he gains for logging 22 minutes a night doesnt accurately offset the potential hit those minutes have on his per 60 rates. Additionally, as you pointed out, the importance of the goals he scores and the role he plays can't be perfectly captured by a calculation. That is why WAR is a starting point, not the be all end all. Regardless, he was 15th, behind Malkin by a pretty insignificant 0.4 WAR. I expect him to leapfrog a few guys by the end of the season.
 

NHL WAR

Registered User
Sep 29, 2018
959
1,176
i like this stat because it makes red wings players look good even though i dont know what it means

This sentiment is probably shared by many of the people who cherry pick stats on this board. At least you have the honesty to say it. And yes, it really confirms how stacked those Red Wings teams were. The numbers for this year's team aren't quite so pretty, though
 
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x Tame Impala

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Aug 24, 2011
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Seems strange to see Kane hardly mentioned except at the very end where he ranks 11th in total WAR.
 

NHL WAR

Registered User
Sep 29, 2018
959
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Seems strange to see Kane hardly mentioned except at the very end where he ranks 11th in total WAR.

Yeah, he just missed the cut in a few other lists. The consistency and above averageness across the board resulted in his high finish in total WAR.
 

NHL WAR

Registered User
Sep 29, 2018
959
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So whats the flaw in this? Lists looks quite legit. Maybe adjustment for teammates?

Thanks and yeah, more context in some components wouldn't hurt. Another worry is you can't be too sure of the quality of the source data for such things as shot attempts. Overall, though, I think it does a good job evaluating forwards, especially when given this large a sample size. The big challenge is creating a similar metric for defenseman.
 
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McDNicks17

Moderator
Jul 1, 2010
41,588
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Ontario
To be honest, I asked myself the same thing. It is possible that the credit he gains for logging 22 minutes a night doesnt accurately offset the potential hit those minutes have on his per 60 rates. Additionally, as you pointed out, the importance of the goals he scores and the role he plays can't be perfectly captured by a calculation. That is why WAR is a starting point, not the be all end all. Regardless, he was 15th, behind Malkin by a pretty insignificant 0.4 WAR. I expect him to leapfrog a few guys by the end of the season.

Does WAR give less credit for secondary assists?

Would explain Eichel's ranking a bit.
 

Quid Pro Clowe

Registered User
Dec 28, 2008
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Part of why I love baseball is for these types of stats and analytics. Thank you, op. None of the names seem out of place, nor are there really any glaring omissions.
 
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Sensators

Registered User
Sep 15, 2009
1,124
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To me at least Carter seems good defensively. Interesting to see him in the worst defensive category. Strange.
 

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