Player Discussion Victor Olofsson (2014, 181st) - Part II (Heading to UFA, Playing at the WCs)

[slip]

Think William Karlsson one year deal. A show me it’s a not fluke.

We can't afford a show me bridge contract with VO. If he finishes the season with close to 70 points, and then does it again next year, we're looking at a fat contract between 6-7 million with some decent term. I'd prefer a three year deal between 3-4 million per season.

 

[joshjull]

We can't afford a show me bridge contract with VO. If he finishes the season with close to 70 points, and then does it again next year, we're looking at a fat contract between 6-7 million with some decent term. I'd prefer a three year deal between 3-4 million per season[/B

That wouldn’t be a bad deal at all. Not sure his camp would go for it though. Plus he’d be a free agent in 3 years. If he is the real deal I’d rather lock him in for more years.

 

[sabrebuild]

I feel like this could be a good opportunity to lock in a core piece on a sweetheart deal. He's at that age where maybe you offer a 5 or 6 year deal at 5+ Million and get his camp to bite and lock him up through his prime.

I've never been more convinced that he's going to be a consistent force for us, after seeing how much he's developed in the last few months. He does just about everything well in the offensive zone, and is fairly solid defensively.

It's quite a situation for our GM to figure out. I think Victor and Montour are core-ish pieces. Each are worth extending into their late 20's/early 30's IMO. For whatever reason, I'm not as sold on Sam long term. I know he's a good player, but there's something that just bothers me about his game. Is he someone that is worth selling high on and trading for a different type of winger?

The way he produces is extremely replicable. He can be a 20 goal guy mostly off the pp alone for the next 5 years.

They need some great deals if this team ever makes the leap to contender.

Right now they are paying full price or more on every contract other than Reinhart and Dahlin and those are going to be rough.

Take a smart calculated risk. For once. Get a steal botts.

 

[sabrebuild]

Think William Karlsson one year deal. A show me it’s a not fluke.

The concern I would have about the Karlsson deal, which I think was smart by Vegas, was that Karlsson's first season there was incredible, both in terms of how the team played and how he personally went from a career Johan Larson, to Selke caliber 40 goal guy. I mean it was such a deviation from who he was.

With Olofsson, I think a bridge burns you bad, like Subban in Montreal. This is who VO is. A goal scoring machine, with a laser one timer. Its who he was in Sweden for back to back pro seasons. It's who he was last year in Rochester and in Buffalo for a minute.

He is square in the middle of his prime, by most standards for nhl players. Let's say he finishes this year with 65 points and 30ish goals. We sign him to a one year prove it deal at 3 mil or so.

What are the circumstances where he doesn't earn a long term deal at least in the 5-6 million range?

Probably injury, but outside of that??? It would be odd to take him off Jack's wing or the pp with how effective he is and how his skills fit perfectly. Maybe he has a cold streak and just hits 20 goals and then we have another issue, but that seems pretty unlikely.

The flip side of that is what happens if he continues on his path of continued improvement and drops a ppg with 35-40 goals? That's not crazy given his success to date.

And then that bridge deal is going to cripple your team as you pay him and Dahlin huge deals.

Unless there is a plan to move Skinner or Reinhart for immediately useful players.

Sometimes the conservative choice is taking the early gamble.

 

[Bendium]

I love what Olofsson has brought to us so far.....but, I think his point production is a product of being given the most prime spot on the team, both at 5v5 and the PP. Last year it was Skinner in that role, and he produced even more than Olofsson. Putting Skinner on the second line reduces his potential effectiveness, which you are paying him top dollar for, and inflating Olofssons stats and worth, setting you up to overpay him as well. Put Olofsson and Reinhart on the second line where they belong, and let them produce the second line stats they should be paid for. You will get more overall out of the players and the dollars you are spending.

 

[mechaworm]

Last year it was Skinner in that role, and he produced even more than Olofsson.

He did not. Skinner put up 63 points, Olofsson is on pace for 75.

I agree with your general point about contract-year guys with Eichel.

 

[Snippit]

I love what Olofsson has brought to us so far.....but, I think his point production is a product of being given the most prime spot on the team, both at 5v5 and the PP. Last year it was Skinner in that role, and he produced even more than Olofsson. Putting Skinner on the second line reduces his potential effectiveness, which you are paying him top dollar for, and inflating Olofssons stats and worth, setting you up to overpay him as well. Put Olofsson and Reinhart on the second line where they belong, and let them produce the second line stats they should be paid for. You will get more overall out of the players and the dollars you are spending.

At this rate we’re basically paying Eichel multiple times

 

[joshjull]

The concern I would have about the Karlsson deal, which I think was smart by Vegas, was that Karlsson's first season there was incredible, both in terms of how the team played and how he personally went from a career Johan Larson, to Selke caliber 40 goal guy. I mean it was such a deviation from who he was.

With Olofsson, I think a bridge burns you bad, like Subban in Montreal. This is who VO is. A goal scoring machine, with a laser one timer. Its who he was in Sweden for back to back pro seasons. It's who he was last year in Rochester and in Buffalo for a minute.

He is square in the middle of his prime, by most standards for nhl players. Let's say he finishes this year with 65 points and 30ish goals. We sign him to a one year prove it deal at 3 mil or so.

What are the circumstances where he doesn't earn a long term deal at least in the 5-6 million range?

Probably injury, but outside of that??? It would be odd to take him off Jack's wing or the pp with how effective he is and how his skills fit perfectly. Maybe he has a cold streak and just hits 20 goals and then we have another issue, but that seems pretty unlikely.

The flip side of that is what happens if he continues on his path of continued improvement and drops a ppg with 35-40 goals? That's not crazy given his success to date.

And then that bridge deal is going to cripple your team as you pay him and Dahlin huge deals.

Unless there is a plan to move Skinner or Reinhart for immediately useful players.

Sometimes the conservative choice is taking the early gamble.

1) Olofsson was never this player in Sweden. He wasn't even this player we see at the moment in the first month of this season.

2) As for being in his prime, everything about Olofsson to date is an outlier to NHL norms. I'm not sure how much they can tell us about his possibilities going forward for that reason.

3) I'm thinking one year "prove it" deal because that's what I think Botts will do. I don't have a problem with a longer term deal.

4) But what does that longer term deal look like? Olofsson's camp will have a say in this. If he puts up 30-ish goals and 65 or so points. Would they take 5 or 6 mil on a long term (4+ years) deal? I believe he only has 2 RFA years left (@dotcommunism is that correct?). So any long term deal will be buying mostly UFA years. Guys who are 27yrs old (when he would be a free agent) with 30g 65pts can easily get more than 5 or 6 mil in free agency with the way the market is going.

 

[joshjull]

I love what Olofsson has brought to us so far.....but, I think his point production is a product of being given the most prime spot on the team, both at 5v5 and the PP. Last year it was Skinner in that role, and he produced even more than Olofsson. Putting Skinner on the second line reduces his potential effectiveness, which you are paying him top dollar for, and inflating Olofssons stats and worth, setting you up to overpay him as well. Put Olofsson and Reinhart on the second line where they belong, and let them produce the second line stats they should be paid for. You will get more overall out of the players and the dollars you are spending.

Its not quite the same thing. Skinner was already well established as one of the best 5v5 goal scorers before he got here.

 

[dotcommunism]

Olofsson is eligible for unrestricted free agency in 2023. So a three year deal takes him right up to UFA.

 

[Gubbhornet]

1) Olofsson was never this player in Sweden. He wasn't even this player we see at the moment in the first month of this season.

2) As for being in his prime, everything about Olofsson to date is an outlier to NHL norms. I'm not sure how much they can tell us about his possibilities going forward for that reason.

3) I'm thinking one year "prove it" deal because that's what I think Botts will do. I don't have a problem with a longer term deal.

4) But what does that longer term deal look like? Olofsson's camp will have a say in this. If he puts up 30-ish goals and 65 or so points. Would they take 5 or 6 mil on a long term (4+ years) deal? I believe he only has 2 RFA years left (@dotcommunism is that correct?). So any long term deal will be buying mostly UFA years. Guys who are 27yrs old (when he would be a free agent) with 30g 65pts can easily get more than 5 or 6 mil in free agency with the way the market is going.

Give him term and a ok salary and he will sign. When you are a former 7th rounder 24 y.o. late bloomer you don't expect top dollar contract and will settle for security. If he is at 60 points by the end of the season, give him $4M for 5 years. If he at 70, give him $5M.

 

[joshjull]

Give him term and a ok salary and he will sign. When you are a former 7th rounder 24 y.o. late bloomer you don't expect top dollar contract and will settle for security. If he is at 60 points by the end of the season, give him $4M for 5 years. If he at 70, give him $5M.

I hope this happens.

 

[joshjull]

Olofsson is eligible for unrestricted free agency in 2023. So a three year deal takes him right up to UFA.

So a two year bridge is still in play and 3 years of RFA can help drop the cost a bit more of any longer term deal. Nice.

 

[Bendium]

Its not quite the same thing. Skinner was already well established as one of the best 5v5 goal scorers before he got here.

I will have to reframe my argument. I did not intend to compare Olofsson and Skinner with each other as much as to use them as an example of the production increase that comes with playing on Jacks wing. Jeff is being paid for that production, so let him produce on Jacks line. Half of Jacks goals this year have come from him making zone entry and sniping a corner. His wingers who hand him the puck in the neutral zone are getting assists for not doing anything special. Any winger playing in that spot on the neutral zone wall will get handed those points. Inflating Olofsson's production by playing him in that position is not a good way to get true production statistics, and is a good way to set yourself up to overpay for him on his next contract.

 

[Fjordy]

I’m not sure that a deal with a bridge is a very good idea, maybe it’s better to lock it for a long time, so as not to overpay later?

 

[sincerity0]

He’ll be 25 at the start of next season. Why not bridge 3yr or buy a year or two of UFA. A 3-5yr deal takes him to his 28-30 seasons. I would not want to go longer than that. If he pushes for something like 7-8 years then Buffalo needs to get a good AAV.

I really like Olofsson as he’s steadily progressed as a prospect. I’m a bit skeptical to pay a high cap at term for him off of one good AHL and one good NHL season. At worst he can be signed for an affordable bridge contract and walk as a 28 year old UFA.

 

[Kyndig]

Olofsson may partially be a product of Eichel but he's also producing at a rate far higher than Reinhart over the point streak (the turning point in Olofsson own game.) Olofsson is sitting in 19th and Reinhart is in 82nd in points per game over that 17 game stretch. Olofsson seems to keep getting better as well and Reinhart is well...the same Reinhart you see every season.

I think you should lock Olofsson up long term if you can. With the way Eichel and Olofsson are playing together now Olofsson's points will probably be even higher next season.

 

[itwasaforwardpass]

Tuch and Colin White recently got $4.75mil for 6/7 years coming off RFA with ~1 solid season.

If we sign Olofsson for more than 2 years I would hope it would be on a similar deal.

 

[sabrebuild]

1) Olofsson was never this player in Sweden. He wasn't even this player we see at the moment in the first month of this season.

2) As for being in his prime, everything about Olofsson to date is an outlier to NHL norms. I'm not sure how much they can tell us about his possibilities going forward for that reason.

3) I'm thinking one year "prove it" deal because that's what I think Botts will do. I don't have a problem with a longer term deal.

4) But what does that longer term deal look like? Olofsson's camp will have a say in this. If he puts up 30-ish goals and 65 or so points. Would they take 5 or 6 mil on a long term (4+ years) deal? I believe he only has 2 RFA years left (@dotcommunism is that correct?). So any long term deal will be buying mostly UFA years. Guys who are 27yrs old (when he would be a free agent) with 30g 65pts can easily get more than 5 or 6 mil in free agency with the way the market is going.

1) by this player, I mean an offensive scorer. He was that guy in Sweden. Has he continued to get better, absolutely. Has he continued to be more well rounded, absolutely. Not saying he was an nhl quality player 5 years ago, rather the skills and the progression has been very linear.

2) I think its absurd to think that because someone is a late round pick, or relatively older as nhl player at the start of their career, that it means they are too difficult to project as every other nhler as it relates physically. By every metric, nhl players and men in general, physically peak in their early twenties.

Even if we assume he is a unicorn, mart st louis style, all the more reason to lock him up long term.

3) we can only hope Botts has the courage to get a long term deal done.

4) The devils in the detail. Part of the benefit of trying to go long term is that some players prefer security rather than risk taking. Agents know that too. What kind of guy is Olofsson? Idk. Maybe he is like Arviddson and would take a 6-7 year deal around 4-5 a year. Maybe he wants to take a shot for a bigger deal. Bit at some point we need some good long term deals and a good gm needs to be able to do that from time to time.

I'd be comfortable giving him the Okposo deal if he'd go for it.

I think he has the style and ability to be a better fit than Skinner, he just gets how to be a finisher from distance and his playmaking has been more than good enough to keep him dangerous.

 

[SharkInABoloTie]

As GMJB, point at Arvidsson and cross your fingers you can get something similar

 

[La Cosa Nostra]

I give VO a 8 year big $ deal before I give Sam one. Sam has been soft and average all year. If he didn't play 20+ mins a night with Eichel he would struggle to have better then a .5 ppg.

VO has been our 2nd best forward ainec.

Hopefully Botts can pull offer something like 8/50 or 7/45.5

 

[Zman5778]

Olofsson is eligible for unrestricted free agency in 2023. So a three year deal takes him right up to UFA.

So a 2 year bridge makes a ton of sense for both sides involved. And we even have a recent benchmark for a deal like this with the Sam deal. 2 years, $3-4 mil per. Seems easy enough.

 

[dortt]

Give him term and a ok salary and he will sign. When you are a former 7th rounder 24 y.o. late bloomer you don't expect top dollar contract and will settle for security. If he is at 60 points by the end of the season, give him $4M for 5 years. If he at 70, give him $5M.

what if he goes > ppg? Do we give him 6-7 then?

 

[Royal Thunder]

I give VO a 8 year big $ deal before I give Sam one. Sam has been soft and average all year. If he didn't play 20+ mins a night with Eichel he would struggle to have better then a .5 ppg.

VO has been our 2nd best forward ainec.

Hopefully Botts can pull offer something like 8/50 or 7/45.5

I agree, i would be more comfortable paying VO long term than Sam.

 

[mechaworm]

I'm very comfortable paying Sam long term because we know exactly what he is.

I'm less comfortable paying Olofsson long term, but I'm more optimistic about what he can become.