He is what he is at the moment. Probably will be until he plays with better players. So with that said, for once, people who are saying 'wait and see' are most likely right. Though thats not to say they wouldn't be saying that regardless, there is a fair amount of posters who simply cannot judge until just about everybody has seen the player for years at the pro level and it's become very obvious to just about anybody, usually due to their lack of actual ability to judge a prospect.
There are two periods that have a big impact on a prospects chances in the nhl, that is their D+1 and their first year pro (ahl/nhl) - Thats not to say that they need to be very impactful out of the gate in their first year AHL/NHL but you should be able to get another fairly accurate read if they have the tools and their likeliness to reach their potential
Russia does make it hard to see the likeliness but because he has played in a pro league, he has a pro type of game. It's pretty easy to see his issues.
And we will see if these continue to be issues when he's playing with better players. Basically we have to wait until the next stage, which will be the NHL (preseason, etc / perhaps doesn't play in the AHL)
Podkolzin's issues is that he has very low scoring hockey IQ, he also doesn't possess an accurate shot. Podkolzin relies on passing. He is going to be a 20g60 a player type of player (if he reached potential) and those 20g being drives to the net, garbage goals. Or he improves on his shot, who knows at this point. But based on his skillset now. His g/a ratio will probably be something like that.
Podkolzin has high passing IQ, however at lower levels, this is lost on teammates. He makes very quick passes and very creative passes.
He would get a few more goals too if he didn't get into positions to only accept higher iq hockey passes, he thinks because that's where he would pass to, thats where he should go, which is not the case. His teammates make the easy passes. The obvious ones.
These teams he's playing on might be a higher level than say, CHL/US College Hockey but it appears (which would be further evident by their draft positions), that they lack the creative offensive players, or at least his teams do. I watched the Russian team in the CHL/Russia series in November and it was the same thing. You just felt like the game is going to be 2-1. Russia didn't do all that well in that tournament, no surprise there.
With that said, he should be able to adjust and goto those spots to get the easy passes and should be able to adapt, this obviously needs to be a concern. He's not simplifying his game to match the league/team hes on. The changes would be much more obvious to a high offensive iq player
IMO if he becomes a good player, it'll be in the mold of Bo horvat, etc - well rounded straight line player who is good at puck protection, lacking high offensive iq, etc - which most of us predicted already
Generally players who have to rely on high iq passing at lower levels don't succeed in the NHL, however based on his puck protection/size/strength and defensive awareness. He has a pretty solid shot.
It reminds me of the struggles of smart d men in the AHL, there are a lot of d men who say playing in the AHL is harder than the NHL because other players do as you'd expect/want. NHL is more structured and at a high level, do your job and your teammates will be there to finish it off.
