Prospect Info: Vasili Podkolzin

Melvin

21/12/05
Sep 29, 2017
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Montreal, QC
My mistake, I am referring to the tool and it’s use.

I don’t think it’s fair or prudent that Melvin rejects all data points to date. Especially, when we have a tool that can aid in clarifying what he is doing.

I am happy with rejecting any conclusion that is based on a 12 game sample. Always and unequivocally, and NHLe is not a tool that helps you overcome the lack of data. In fact, since it itself is an estimate based on limited data, it actually muddies the water even more rather than providing any clarity.

Like I just don't see why you think that NHLe helps make a small sample more meaningful.
 
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Lindgren

Registered User
Jun 30, 2005
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2nd line is good news if he sticks.

i'd like this player to progress to the point where we quietly guarantee him a roster spot next year if he comes over. that's the only way he will sign and buy out his khl contract a year early.

that's a tall order, but i think he shows things that make it very feasible. he just needs to put up points.

I believe that we heard from his agent that a buy-out isn't possible. I think he said that such a move needs to take place 18 months before the end of the contract.
 

krutovsdonut

eeyore
Sep 25, 2016
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I am happy with rejecting any conclusion that is based on a 12 game sample. Always and unequivocally, and NHLe is not a tool that helps you overcome the lack of data. In fact, since it itself is an estimate based on limited data, it actually muddies the water even more rather than providing any clarity.

Like I just don't see why you think that NHLe helps make a small sample more meaningful.

we rarely absolutely and completely agree, so i'd like to take a moment and say we absolutely and completely agree.
 

krutovsdonut

eeyore
Sep 25, 2016
16,904
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I believe that we heard from his agent that a buy-out isn't possible. I think he said that such a move needs to take place 18 months before the end of the contract.

yeah, maybe a case of burning a year of elc and coming here late in the season so he gets two years of signing bonuses close together and a month of nhl salary on the expanded roster this season. sort of like an ncaa ufa deal.

it all depends on them being willing to promise him an nhl salary next season though.
 

VanJack

Registered User
Jul 11, 2014
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Well one thing about Podkolzin's current situation, is that if continues to bounce back and forth between the VHL and the KHL, getting less than 10 minutes with SKA St. Petersburg, then he'll be chomping at the bit to sign an NHL contract.

Almost guaranteed he'll be a Canuck by training camp of the '21-'22 season.
 

Lindgren

Registered User
Jun 30, 2005
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yeah, maybe a case of burning a year of elc and coming here late in the season so he gets two years of signing bonuses close together and a month of nhl salary on the expanded roster this season. sort of like an ncaa ufa deal.

it all depends on them being willing to promise him an nhl salary next season though.

As I said, that can't be done. He has a contract. He can't break it, as it's too late to provide the necessary advance notice. He'll be in Russia at least through this season and the next.
 

Bleach Clean

Registered User
Aug 9, 2006
27,056
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I am happy with rejecting any conclusion that is based on a 12 game sample. Always and unequivocally, and NHLe is not a tool that helps you overcome the lack of data. In fact, since it itself is an estimate based on limited data, it actually muddies the water even more rather than providing any clarity.

Like I just don't see why you think that NHLe helps make a small sample more meaningful.

The sample of includes his draft year data as well. Why only 12 games?

So based on your rationale here, what are your games played thresholds for Russian players?
 

krutovsdonut

eeyore
Sep 25, 2016
16,904
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As I said, that can't be done. He has a contract. He can't break it, as it's too late to provide the necessary advance notice. He'll be in Russia at least through this season and the next.

sorry, you may be right. i was assuming a july 1st termination date.

khl playoffs end late in april, so a khl contract presumably terminates in early may at the earliest. so 18 months before the end of the contract could be sometime this month.

here's an article suggesting it could be mid december though. still very early to make the commitment.

KHL contracts of Tkachyov and Nalimov terminated
 
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F A N

Registered User
Aug 12, 2005
18,735
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I am happy with rejecting any conclusion that is based on a 12 game sample. Always and unequivocally, and NHLe is not a tool that helps you overcome the lack of data. In fact, since it itself is an estimate based on limited data, it actually muddies the water even more rather than providing any clarity.

Like I just don't see why you think that NHLe helps make a small sample more meaningful.

Agreed. I don't understand why someone would simply accept conclusions without looking at the methodology and data used etc. to come to said conclusions.
 

Lindgren

Registered User
Jun 30, 2005
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sorry, you may be right. i was assuming a july 1st termination date.

khl playoffs end late in april, so a khl contract presumably terminates in early may at the earliest. so 18 months before the end of the contract could be sometime this month.

here's an article suggesting it could be mid december though. still very early to make the commitment.

KHL contracts of Tkachyov and Nalimov terminated

The notice would need to be given 18 months before the beginning of the final year of the contract, as I understand things. So the deadline passed some time ago.
 

Lindgren

Registered User
Jun 30, 2005
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that would be impossible with a 2 year contract.

Indeed. I'll see if I can find the agent's comments for you. He was basically saying it wasn't possible with Podkolzin's contract.

Edit: I looked and couldn't find it (though I found a few assertions by reporters such as Dhaliwal that there is no way out of the contract). It's possible I was thinking of comments Tryamkin's agent made. Either way, I believe there is virtually nothing the Canucks can do to get Podkolzin over before his contract expires. If for some reason his team defaults on payments, that would be a different matter, but there's no indication there's a chance of that happening.
 
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Melvin

21/12/05
Sep 29, 2017
15,198
28,055
Montreal, QC
The sample of includes his draft year data as well. Why only 12 games?

So based on your rationale here, what are your games played thresholds for Russian players?

To be clear, there are two different things here: The data about the league and the data about the player.

I don't think we have enough of *either* to be able to set a reasonable expectation for this player this year, unfortunately. If he plays 60 games there then we might have *something* but it's still going to be very wide, where, like, if he only has 20 points then that is bad and if he has 70 points then that is good but anything in between is going to be a shrug IMO.

And I don't think "quality" of the league is a one-dimensional metric as you want to boil it down to either, as we've discussed before.
 

mathonwy

Positively #toxic
Jan 21, 2008
19,133
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Guess he couldn't handle the increased workload. Time to worry boys.
ogMGpcR.gif


BUST
 

mriswith

Registered User
Oct 12, 2011
4,207
7,451
Really? This entire thread.

I check this thread regularly because I'm interested in game highlights and other updates on his actual playing, and the thread has primarily been moaning and hand wringing theatrics by people who don't watch him and sometimes don't even grasp his situation and are certainly not providing any new insight.

Like, read this, last page first post:

Him not playing much tells us a lot about where his development is at. Right now I’d peg his development this year as borderline disasterous.

Francesco needs to employ every tool in his toolbox to get Pod over here. The Aquilini family must have connections amongst the Russian oligarchs that run the KHL.

Every sentence is dramatic and absurd and most of this thread has been roughly this level of dialogue.

I’d like an example of this as well. Let’s have it @mriswith.
Ok sure we'll bring you in. I wasn't going to specifically call you out because you're not the worst, but you're no shining beacon yourself. This is going to be a hit and run though, because I have no interest in continuing to participate in the problem by bloating this thread with more theatrics than this.

Motor and board play are fine to project a bottom6 upside, but the production is not there. That’s the key attribute he is missing, no matter the context

"Key attribute he's missing no matter the context". Like 5 games post draft for a top KHL team playing 4 min a night, "no matter the context", jfc. Whether you intended it this way or not it comes across as dramatic.

There are some who also understand NHL equivalency rates and the relative strength of each leagues. He should be dominating the MHL and should be having at least a mixed performance in the VHL. He’s not doing that.

It’s time to park the excuses and look at his progression for what it is. Right now, he does not appear to project as a top6 forward, and that’s not good.
Ridiculous, dramatic, stat watching.

I don’t think it’s the minutes, I think it’s him. Podkolzin is a busy player that doesn’t produce. Usually, that’s the type of player on the lower end of the forward corps.

I wasn’t bullish on this draft, but remained cautiously optimistic. That is slowly eroding with time.
Ridiculous, dramatic, stat watching.

I get as Canucks fans we're generally pessimistic and neurotic about any sign of weakness in prospects but this thread is bloated with hyperbolic hand wringing non-content. All these assumptions about what a handful of games mean immediately post draft are as premature as a kid his age at prom. Worse, it's hard to track what he's actually doing as any real content gets buried.

And now I'm out and back to lurking.
 

bandwagonesque

I eat Kraft Dinner and I vote
Mar 5, 2014
7,152
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Agreed. I don't understand why someone would simply accept conclusions without looking at the methodology and data used etc. to come to said conclusions.
Because those conclusions are ones they would prefer to believe.
 
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Melvin

21/12/05
Sep 29, 2017
15,198
28,055
Montreal, QC
So no examples of anyone "freaking out" then?

I mean, you interrupted an interesting conversation about data to whine about some posts you didn't like two pages ago? Really? And while whining about hyperbole you don't see your own hyperbole in describing these posts as "freaking out?" Really?

Please do go back to lurking if that is your only contribution to the dialogue.
 

mriswith

Registered User
Oct 12, 2011
4,207
7,451
So no examples of anyone "freaking out" then?

I mean, you interrupted an interesting conversation about data to whine about some posts you didn't like two pages ago? Really? And while whining about hyperbole you don't see your own hyperbole in describing these posts as "freaking out?" Really?

Please do go back to lurking if that is your only contribution to the dialogue.
Declarations of this year as disastrous, the contingent desperate to pull him out of russia and put him on our ahl team with no track record of actually developing players, and declaring his projection solved and he's a third liner at best based on a handful of games immediately after being a consensus top 10 draft pick qualify as freaking out in my books. And if you find repeating yourself 9 times to someone an "interesting conversation" that you're now unhappy was "interrupted" by a one liner, well, I can't help you there either.
 

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