Prospect Info: Vasili Podkolzin

[4Twenty]

You guys remember hearing Gillis comment on the state of Russian hockey when he was making his media rounds last spring? He said the games are really hard to evaluate because the players are way worse, lack skill and that it's not really a great league(s) for assessing talents.

All I'll say about Podkolzin is that St Petersberg has a world renowned skill development system (Daniel Bochner) and while games and production would be nice to see, I think as long as he can refine his skills he's going to be just fine.

I don't think he projects like a Tarasenko anyways, seems to me to have the skill profile of Brendan Morrow type. That will still be a valuable future asset IMO. It will be interesting to track the other players the Canucks had the opportunity to draft. So far Caulfield seems to be the only one blowing his draft position out of the water.

 

[MS]

You guys remember hearing Gillis comment on the state of Russian hockey when he was making his media rounds last spring? He said the games are really hard to evaluate because the players are way worse, lack skill and that it's not really a great league(s) for assessing talents.

All I'll say about Podkolzin is that St Petersberg has a world renowned skill development system (Daniel Bochner) and while games and production would be nice to see, I think as long as he can refine his skills he's going to be just fine.

I don't think he projects like a Tarasenko anyways, seems to me to have the skill profile of Brendan Morrow type. That will still be a valuable future asset IMO. It will be interesting to track the other players the Canucks had the opportunity to draft. So far Caulfield seems to be the only one blowing his draft position out of the water.

The Soderstrom/Heinola/Bjornfot trio of Scandanavian defenders are all looking great as well.

Podkolzin has always reminded me a lot of Evander Kane in terms of his style and skillset. Powerful straight-line player with a decent helping of skill.

 

[Melvin]

It's being treated as it has been.

...which is, absolutely worthless to help project an 18 year old player who has barely played in a system for which we have very little data.

 

[4Twenty]

The Soderstrom/Heinola/Bjornfot trio of Scandanavian defenders are all looking great as well.

Podkolzin has always reminded me a lot of Evander Kane in terms of his style and skillset. Powerful straight-line player with a decent helping of skill.

Oh yeah, I wouldn't count out the dman Dallas took out of the OHL too. But I don't think you can say outright that any of these guys willl turn out more valuable.

 

[Orca Smash]

This was a Judd bracket pick boys.

Do we know that? I have alot more faith in brackett compared to benning and weisbrod but with linden gone (I believe he appointed brackett), I had no idea who was making the final call this draft.

 

[lawrence]

Do we know that? I have alot more faith in bracket compared to benning and weisbrod but with linden gone (I believe he appointed bracket), I had no idea who was making the final call this draft.

like asking us how do we know, Juolevi is a benning pick. Did we ask that?

 

[Orca Smash]

like asking us how do we know, Juolevi is a benning pick. Did we ask that?

I dont really know where you are going with your question. I assume people felt that was a benning pick because benning was raving about him pre draft after seeing him in the wjc comparing his skillset to lidstrom. You would have to ask those people however.

 

[Bleach Clean]

...which is, absolutely worthless to help project an 18 year old player who has barely played in a system for which we have very little data.

The existence of NHLe for those leagues refutes your take here. If it was worthless, no statistician would attempt to create or to employ the values.

I understand what you are saying about games played and I respect your opinion. I think you are too quick to dismiss _all_ inferences here when translation methods exist. That does not follow.

I’ll leave this particular discussion here.

 

[F A N]

You do realize that every Russian player who signs an ELC will have an out clause to be able to go back to Russia rather than go to the AHL. Why go play for $70 K a year when they likely get a minimum of 5 times that in Russia.

Part of drafting Russians is that you better accept when you bring them over you have to play them in the NHL first. If they struggle, fine send them to the AHL, knowing that might be the last you ever see of them.

Tryamkin refused to report to Utica, played OK then went back to Russia anyways.

On the bright side, it seems that talented Russian forwards who aren't ready for the NHL at a young age could develop in Russia and star in the NHL at age 24+

 

[ChilliBilly]

On the bright side, it seems that talented Russian forwards who aren't ready for the NHL at a young age could develop in Russia and star in the NHL at age 24+

Agreed. I still expect Tryamkin back this year, I believe he will get some ice time in the Playoffs (if they can find the cap space). Podkolzin will be over after his season is over next year, and he's going to start out as a solid 2 way player who develops into at least a 25 -25 player in 3 - 4 years. Optimistic. (however I am also the one who said Jensen Schroeder Kassian could be the next WCE for the Canucks).

 

[Diversification]

Agreed. I still expect Tryamkin back this year, I believe he will get some ice time in the Playoffs (if they can find the cap space). Podkolzin will be over after his season is over next year, and he's going to start out as a solid 2 way player who develops into at least a 25 -25 player in 3 - 4 years. Optimistic. (however I am also the one who said Jensen Schroeder Kassian could be the next WCE for the Canucks).

While I think it's a bit premature to predict offensive output, I agree with your general sentiment. A player with his skillset is easily projectable as a regular forward in the NHL. He does so many things well that will endear him to coaches that it's very likely that he'll join the club in 21-22 in a bottom 6 role and work his way steadily up the depth chart, all the while earning himself time on the PK and PP. He kind of strikes me as a less offensively gifted JT Miller but with a better motor.

I don't however, see him as a 25 goal player. Maybe as a career highpoint. But certainly not on a regular basis.

 

[Melvin]

The existence of NHLe for those leagues refutes your take here. If it was worthless, no statistician would attempt to create or to employ the values.
.

This is a bizarre take, akin to "Benning must know what he's doing because he's the gm."

 

[bandwagonesque]

The existence of NHLe for those leagues refutes your take here. If it was worthless, no statistician would attempt to create or to employ the values.

This is a last-ditch appeal to authority that you knew made no sense as you were writing it.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

Agreed. I still expect Tryamkin back this year, I believe he will get some ice time in the Playoffs (if they can find the cap space). Podkolzin will be over after his season is over next year, and he's going to start out as a solid 2 way player who develops into at least a 25 -25 player in 3 - 4 years. Optimistic. (however I am also the one who said Jensen Schroeder Kassian could be the next WCE for the Canucks).

Boy! That was a dumb prediction!
Especially when anyone could see they were clearly going to be playing second fiddle to Cassels, Hodgson and Dahlen.

 

[krutovsdonut]

a stat must be good because it exists? that might be the ultimate analytics hot take.

time for +/- to make a comeback i guess.

 

[4Twenty]

The existence of NHLe for those leagues refutes your take here. If it was worthless, no statistician would attempt to create or to employ the values.

I understand what you are saying about games played and I respect your opinion. I think you are too quick to dismiss _all_ inferences here when translation methods exist. That does not follow.

I’ll leave this particular discussion here.

You seem to be commtting an appeal to authority here.

 

[F A N]

JD Burke has a piece in the Athletic today. In it he references Mitch Brown who tracks every level of hockey (JD Burke's words). Quoting from the article: "...Podkolzin is dominating the KHL in the scant minutes he is playing. 'Podkolzin led one game I tracked in raw expected goal output playing about ten minutes total,' Brown told me. 'He's right near the top of SKA every time he gets that kind of ice-time."

 

[Bleach Clean]

This is a bizarre take, akin to "Benning must know what he's doing because he's the gm."

Ok, let’s put this another way: Is NHLe useless or useful as a projection tool?

If useless, I will concede the point.

If useful, and we have at least some data to make a projection, why dismiss it? That’s arbitrary.

Side question: How useful is the Potato by comparison?

 

[Billy Kvcmu]

He better gets more than 5 mins a game

 

[PuckMunchkin]

If he can't even get a point in the KHL I don't think he's even close to playing in the NHL. Let him finish up his contract over there then play him a year in the AHL.

While playing 4-5 shifts...

 

[Bleach Clean]

You seem to be commtting an appeal to authority here.

My mistake, I am referring to the tool and it’s use.

I don’t think it’s fair or prudent that Melvin rejects all data points to date. Especially, when we have a tool that can aid in clarifying what he is doing.

 

[PuckMunchkin]

JD Burke has a piece in the Athletic today. In it he references Mitch Brown who tracks every level of hockey (JD Burke's words). Quoting from the article: "...Podkolzin is dominating the KHL in the scant minutes he is playing. 'Podkolzin led one game I tracked in raw expected goal output playing about ten minutes total,' Brown told me. 'He's right near the top of SKA every time he gets that kind of ice-time."

This is what my... *gasp* EYE TEST... led me to believe.

I had NO CLUE why he wasnt getting more ice.

 

[krutovsdonut]

2nd line is good news if he sticks.

i'd like this player to progress to the point where we quietly guarantee him a roster spot next year if he comes over. that's the only way he will sign and buy out his khl contract a year early.

that's a tall order, but i think he shows things that make it very feasible. he just needs to put up points.

 

[Melvin]

Ok, let’s put this another way: Is NHLe useless or useful as a projection tool?

If useless, I will concede the point.

If useful, and we have at least some data to make a projection, why dismiss it? That’s arbitrary.

Side question: How useful is the Potato by comparison?

It's useful when there is enough data for it to be useful. You can't project anything based on 12 games of data or 11 games when the prospect was getting 3 shifts in a game. That's not "arbitrary" it's just statistics. Every estimate comes with error bars and the usefulness of the estimate is determined in part by the width of the error bars.

One of my problems with NHLe is that he presents it to four decimal places, when it is nowhere near that precise. In reality "0.5708" would be better described as "between 0.5 and 0.6" depending on the underlying data. In this case, the uncertainty is so high that your translation is going to be something like "between 1 and 20 points." You tell me, is that useful?

There is no black and white, this is useful for all situations or, this is never useful. It doesn't work that way. I was very specific in saying it is not useful for this application. And no, neither is the potato.

We just don't have enough data. The eye test is almost certainly going to fare better than any statistical analysis with this data.

 

[thekernel]

2nd line is good news if he sticks.

i'd like this player to progress to the point where we quietly guarantee him a roster spot next year if he comes over. that's the only way he will sign and buy out his khl contract a year early.

that's a tall order, but i think he shows things that make it very feasible. he just needs to put up points.

Let him play out his deal. The longer we wait to get him on an ELC, the better it bodes for our future. If we can time it to expire at the same time as the Myers deal, we should be able to keep the entire main core together. One year earlier and it's much more awkward, since Bo will likely be due for a raise (Miller and Ferland will expire too, although it's a little early to be concerned about that). Of course, it's all contingent on how much we're paying Petey/Q/Boeser/Demko/Gaudette at that point, but waiting the extra year will make it that much easier to fit it all together.

But if he's really that gung-ho about making the NHL next season, I say don't stand in his way. Standing in his way is generally a bad idea