Proposal: (VAN/TOR) Jett Woo, Brendan Leipsic for Andreas Johnsson and Justin Holl

[GoodbyeLuongo]

You do realize the guys you listed are dramatic exceptions. Here is a list of every player taken between 31 and 45 between 2005 and 2012. I tiered them but also did it a year ago, pretty much everyone could debate the placement over 1 tier or so but it shouldn't be dramatic. Your odds of hitting on a 2nd rounder between 31 and 45 (this was done before a 31 was a first rounder) amounting to something of value (I'd say that is a top 9 forward or top 5 defender, or a fringe starter) is about 1 in 4, we got 24 players out of 105 who did that, but when you also factor in some of these guys were lost to waivers for nothing before they became something of value (so they didn't help the team that drafted them) its closer to 20%. So, I guess it depends if you think a 20% chance of being a viable NHLer that contributes a long-shot. I could add 2013 and maybe 2014 at this point, because after that its too early to even try to classify certain guys.


Superstar (0)

Star
PK Subban
Roman Josi

Top Line/Top Pairing/Starter
James Neal
Marc-Edouard Vlasic
Paul Stastny
Jake Allen (G)
Ryan O’Reilly
Justin Faulk

Top 6/Top 4/ fringe starer
Ondrej Pavelec (G)
Justin Abdelkader
Jeff Petry
Jakub Markstrom (G)
Slava Voynov*
Justin Schultz
Jakub Silverberg
Jon Merrill
Ryan Spooner

3rd liner/5th defender/backup
Michael Neuvirth
Jamie McGinn
Nikolay Kulemin
Patrick Wiercloth
Kyle Clifford
Alex Chiasson
Devante Pelle-Smith

4th liner/6th defender
Guillaume Latedresse
Anton Lander
Alex Petrovic
Patrik Nemeth

Outright bust
Brendan Mikkelsson
Tyler Plante (G)
Ryan Stoa
Tyler Chorney
Scott Jackson
Jeff Frazee (G)
Petr Kalus
Mike Sauer
Tomas Kana
Carl Sneep
Igor Makarov
Francoius Bouchard
Yuri Alexandrov
Bryce Swan
Andreas Nodl
Ondrej Fiala
Cory Emmerton
Mike Ratchuk
Riley Holzapel
TJ Brennan
Brett MacLean
Taylor Ellington
Josh Godfrey
Tommy Cross
Joel Gistedt (G)
Stefan Legein
Billy Sweatt
Simon Hjalmarsson
Michal Repik
Kevin Marshall
Eric Tangredi
Aaron Palushaj
Colby Cohen
Nicolas Deschamps
Corey Trivino
Corey Golubev
Eric O’Dell
Aaron Ness
Yann Sauve
Luke Adam
Zac Dalpe
Mikko Koskinen (G) (fringe, probably should be in back-up tier).
Landon Ferraro
Carl Klingberg
Chris Brown
Mat Clark
Drew Shore
Zach Buddish
Charles-Olivier Roussel
William Wrenn
Jeremy Morin
Tyler Pitlik
Jared Knight
John McFarland
Dalton Smith
Ludvig Rensfeldt
Brett Bulmer
Christian Thomas
Brad Ross
Sebastain Wannstrom

And I'm not saying you're incorrect. My gripe is that writing a player off to be nothing after being drafted six months ago is a little wild. Especially when someone like Dermott was drafted in literally the same radius as Woo.

 

[93LEAFS]

And I'm not saying you're incorrect. My gripe is that writing a player off to be nothing after being drafted six months ago is a little wild. Especially when someone like Dermott was drafted in literally the same radius as Woo.

I wouldn't write him off, my main point would be 2nd rounders becoming NHLers have the odds significantly against them. If people actually saw the actual odds of each selection hitting they would be astonished. Woo also doesn't really have the statistical profile of a guy expected to beat out the odds (D from the CHL who don't have above .6 ppg in their draft year have a significantly lesser chance of success than those above). Now, there are obvious exceptions such as Vlasic, Weber, or Letang.

I also think Durzi is a long-shot to be an NHLer, even Sandin has the odds against him.

 

[GoodbyeLuongo]

I wouldn't write him off, my main point would be 2nd rounders becoming NHLers have the odds significantly against them. If people actually saw the actual odds of each selection hitting they would be astonished. Woo also doesn't really have the statistical profile of a guy expected to beat out the odds (D from the CHL who don't have above .6 ppg in their draft year have a significantly lesser chance of success than those above). Now, there are obvious exceptions such as Vlasic, Weber, or Letang.

I also think Durzi is a long-shot to be an NHLer, even Sandin has the odds against him.

And that's fair. But I don't agree with saying he has no chance to make the league when he's six months out of being drafted and obv our FO thought highly of him. And say what you will, they've hit big time on several draft picks, just gets overshadowed by the Virtanen pick and the slow development of Juolevi.

 

[innitfam]

I want to see how Woo turns out... no dice

 

[93LEAFS]

And that's fair. But I don't agree with saying he has no chance to make the league when he's six months out of being drafted and obv our FO thought highly of him. And say what you will, they've hit big time on several draft picks, just gets overshadowed by the Virtanen pick and the slow development of Juolevi.

Boeser is a legit pick, Pettersson looks to be a big pick, but he was also drafted at 5th overall. McCann is average for the range. Pretty much every other pick has to prove themselves, so their isn't really much of a track record. Until guys like Demko, Lind, and Gaudette show they can stick in the NHL you can't really say much about their picks. I'd say the Canucks have batted below average with Benning due to the two picks mentioned, but not as badly as some people think.

 

[connormcmuffin]

So why even have a round outside the first? If non first rounders aren't ever going to be future NHLers then we should just stop after one I guess. He was a high second rounder taken not even six months ago. To say that he's a long shot at best is absolutely ridiculous. Nikita Kucherov was a second rounder. So was P.K. And my goodness, Jamie Benn and Johnny Gaudreau were even later than that, how the heck did they even allow those guys to play pro hockey?

Sorry, I'm sure your team's 2nd round is oh so special and is worth 10 Kucherovs in proposals.... ffs the whining over a nothing prospect.

 

[GoodbyeLuongo]

Sorry, I'm sure your team's 2nd round is oh so special and is worth 10 Kucherovs in proposals.... ffs the whining over a nothing prospect.

Alright well I’m glad you seem to know exactly what our prospects will amount to. We should hire you as GM

 

[eviohh26]

Woo would be the 2bnd best prospect on leafs.lol this thread

 

[connormcmuffin]

Alright well I’m glad you seem to know exactly what our prospects will amount to. We should hire you as GM

I wouldn't have drafted Virtanen or Juolevi.

But tell me what will Woo be? Edify me and we can track which or us has a better grasp of reality.

And if you can address the original point, why does this nobody have trade value?

 

[canadianmagpie]

I wouldn't write him off, my main point would be 2nd rounders becoming NHLers have the odds significantly against them. If people actually saw the actual odds of each selection hitting they would be astonished. Woo also doesn't really have the statistical profile of a guy expected to beat out the odds (D from the CHL who don't have above .6 ppg in their draft year have a significantly lesser chance of success than those above). Now, there are obvious exceptions such as Vlasic, Weber, or Letang.

I also think Durzi is a long-shot to be an NHLer, even Sandin has the odds against him.

Woo wasn't drafted for his offensive production. He's a defensive defenseman and is usually utilized in a shutdown capacity. So only using his point production as a means of arguing he won't make the NHL makes no sense. If he plays for Canada at the WJC, he'll be given the PK minutes.

What most people have against the OP's proposal is that Woo is being treated as an "add-on" to "even up" the trade when I see him as the most valuable piece in the deal. Johnsson and Holl are dime a dozen players.

If you have so little faith in Durzi and Sandin, would you do both for Brandon Leipsic and Reid Boucher then? Both have shown they can play in the NHL and the other two haven't.

 

[connormcmuffin]

L

Woo wasn't drafted for his offensive production. He's a defensive defenseman and is usually utilized in a shutdown capacity. So only using his point production as a means of arguing he won't make the NHL makes no sense. If he plays for Canada at the WJC, he'll be given the PK minutes.

What most people have against the OP's proposal is that Woo is being treated as an "add-on" to "even up" the trade when I see him as the most valuable piece in the deal. Johnsson and Holl are dime a dozen players.

If you have so little faith in Durzi and Sandin, would you do both for Brandon Leipsic and Reid Boucher then? Both have shown they can play in the NHL and the other two haven't.

Lol, AJ is a fully developed prospect that graduated into the NHL. He's now developing as an NHL.

Woo has two levels of hockey to graduate from until he's in the same sentence as AJ.

Most valuable piece, Woo doesn't even have an impressive ceiling to project.

Defensive defenseman, aka career AHLer

 

[93LEAFS]

Woo wasn't drafted for his offensive production. He's a defensive defenseman and is usually utilized in a shutdown capacity. So only using his point production as a means of arguing he won't make the NHL makes no sense. If he plays for Canada at the WJC, he'll be given the PK minutes.

What most people have against the OP's proposal is that Woo is being treated as an "add-on" to "even up" the trade when I see him as the most valuable piece in the deal. Johnsson and Holl are dime a dozen players.

If you have so little faith in Durzi and Sandin, would you do both for Brandon Leipsic and Reid Boucher then? Both have shown they can play in the NHL and the other two haven't.

The thing is, even defensive defenceman can generally produce offense at the WHL level. I remember thinking the exact same stuff with Luke Schenn. Or the same arguments made for Gudbranson. Someone like Vlasic wasn't great in his draft year but exploded in his D+1, something Woo isn't tracking towards.

No, because I value them more, and we have no real need for Reid Boucher or Leipsic considering what the Leafs have. My general point was that Woo's odds of becoming an NHLer of value isn't very high, if you look at track record of his pick range and the track record of CHL defenders who don't put up offense.

 

[canadianmagpie]

The thing is, even defensive defenceman can generally produce offense at the WHL level. I remember thinking the exact same stuff with Luke Schenn. Or the same arguments made for Gudbranson. Someone like Vlasic wasn't great in his draft year but exploded in his D+1, something Woo isn't tracking towards.

No, because I value them more, and we have no real need for Reid Boucher or Leipsic considering what the Leafs have. My general point was that Woo's odds of becoming an NHLer of value isn't very high, if you look at track record of his pick range and the track record of CHL defenders who don't put up offense.

What a surprise! The Canucks have no need for Johnsson or Holl so why would we give up on a young prospect who's 11 games into his season in a tougher league than the QMJHL (which Vlasic averaged about a point a game). The Canucks have no need of AHL players like Holl or Johnsson right now, so why trade Woo who is 11 games into a season (yet that's long enough for you to say he hasn't tracked upwards). So why wouldn't you take the Canuck AHL players for your recent 2nd round draft picks?

Offering the Canucks Holl and Johnsson is the equivalent of the Leafs Kero and Boucher. You say you have no use for those two, the Canucks have no use for Holl and Johnsson.

L

Lol, AJ is a fully developed prospect that graduated into the NHL. He's now developing as an NHL.

Woo has two levels of hockey to graduate from until he's in the same sentence as AJ.

Most valuable piece, Woo doesn't even have an impressive ceiling to project.

Defensive defenseman, aka career AHLer

Yeah, his 1 assist in 10 games is just screaming that he can play in the NHL and at age 23 too! He's an AHL player based on stats and is 5 years old than Woo. I think you'll soon see Woo in the AHL and Johnsson demoted. Then they'll be in the same league.

So any defensive defenseman (Tanev, Vlasic, Russell, etc.) have no business being in the NHL then? They are all defensive defensemen. The argument that you're trying to make that defensive defensemen = career AHLer, I just laugh at how stupid that sounds.

 

[93LEAFS]

What a surprise! The Canucks have no need for Johnsson or Holl so why would we give up on a young prospect who's 11 games into his season in a tougher league than the QMJHL (which Vlasic averaged about a point a game). The Canucks have no need of AHL players like Holl or Johnsson right now, so why trade Woo who is 11 games into a season (yet that's long enough for you to say he hasn't tracked upwards). So why wouldn't you take the Canuck AHL players for your recent 2nd round draft picks?

Offering the Canucks Holl and Johnsson is the equivalent of the Leafs Kero and Boucher. You say you have no use for those two, the Canucks have no use for Holl and Johnsson.

Except I never disputed the proposal. My point was to expect Woo as a likely NHLer is faulty based on the information at hand. Woo has tracked downwards offensively since December of 2017. Sandin was also our recent first rounder. You took issue with me saying that a defensive defenseman doesn't have to put up point totals in junior. I don't think that belief holds, and I don't think he has more than a 20% chance to be an NHLer in a role of value (top 4 defender in his case, even a top 5 one).

You do realize Kris Russell had high-end offensive numbers in junior. Tanev is basically a 1% chance of a guy who profiles like he does at 18 to become an NHLer. Vlasic exploded offensively in his draft plus 1 season. Since you are disputing my claims. How likely do you think it is that Woo becomes a top 4 defender?

 

[canadianmagpie]

Except I never disputed the proposal. My point was to expect Woo as a likely NHLer is faulty based on the information at hand. Woo has tracked downwards offensively since December of 2017. Sandin was also our recent first rounder. You took issue with me saying that a defensive defenseman doesn't have to put up point totals in junior. I don't think that belief holds, and I don't think he has more than a 20% chance to be an NHLer in a role of value (top 4 defender in his case, even a top 5 one).

You do realize Kris Russell had high-end offensive numbers in junior. Tanev is basically a 1% chance of a guy who profiles like he does at 18 to become an NHLer. Vlasic exploded offensively in his draft plus 1 season. Since you are disputing my claims. How likely do you think it is that Woo becomes a top 4 defender?

There's a risk that he doesn't, you can't tell the future and neither can I. We can agree to disagree on the potential of Woo to be a NHLer. Does putting up numbers in juniors mean you have a better shot of being a top player in the NHL, no. However, it does mean they are more likely to be given a shot there.

You asked about my opinion of Woo being a top 4 defender, I don't know. Though I know it's better odds than Holl and Johnsson would be an effective contributor in the NHL. At 23, Johnsson is an AHLer and Holl (26) is not even someone who would be the 2nd or 3rd callup from Utica. I'd rather take a shot on Woo potentially panning out to be a solid defenseman than two guys that would be stuck in Utica for the rest of their careers.

 

[93LEAFS]

There's a risk that he doesn't, you can't tell the future and neither can I. We can agree to disagree on the potential of Woo to be a NHLer. Does putting up numbers in juniors mean you have a better shot of being a top player in the NHL, no. However, it does mean they are more likely to be given a shot there.

You asked about my opinion of Woo being a top 4 defender, I don't know. Though I know it's better odds than Holl and Johnsson would be an effective contributor in the NHL. At 23, Johnsson is an AHLer and Holl (26) is not even someone who would be the 2nd or 3rd callup from Utica. I'd rather take a shot on Woo potentially panning out to be a solid defenseman than two guys that would be stuck in Utica for the rest of their careers.

They absolutely do. Its pretty much proven there is a correlation. How strong it is is debatable, and it doesn't mean everyone who does will. No one can tell the future, but we can use prior history and evaluation of someone to attempt to handicap the odds of it. I've simply shown guys drafted in Woo's range hit at maybe a 1 in 5 rate of becoming something of value before they hit waivers.

I also think you are sleeping on Johnsson. He looks to be a guy who can be a contributing 3rd liner if given a shot. I would think its quite debatable that Woo has a better chance of being a contributing NHLer than Woo. Woo just has a longer time-frame to make that assessment, which may give him more value.

 

[canadianmagpie]

They absolutely do. Its pretty much proven there is a correlation. How strong it is is debatable, and it doesn't mean everyone who does will. No one can tell the future, but we can use prior history and evaluation of someone to attempt to handicap the odds of it. I've simply shown guys drafted in Woo's range hit at maybe a 1 in 5 rate of becoming something of value before they hit waivers.

I also think you are sleeping on Johnsson. He looks to be a guy who can be a contributing 3rd liner if given a shot. I would think its quite debatable that Woo has a better chance of being a contributing NHLer than Woo. Woo just has a longer time-frame to make that assessment, which may give him more value.

1 assist in 10 games averaging 10 minutes a game. What has Johnsson done to be given that shot?

I also call bullshit on your point argument. There are just as many guys who dominate juniors who can't put it together in the NHL. Prime example is Angelo Esposito, ripped up the QMJHL, couldn't hack it in the NHL. The players who make the NHL usually have good numbers in juniors and the AHL, but some can be late bloomers. He's only played 11 games this season thus far, likely starting most of his shifts in the defensive zone so points will be limited, playing on a team that's basically around the .500 mark. I'd rather see what Woo can do in the next 5 years than to give up on him 6 months after he was drafted.

 

[93LEAFS]

1 assist in 10 games averaging 10 minutes a game. What has Johnsson done to be given that shot?

I also call bull**** on your point argument. There are just as many guys who dominate juniors who can't put it together in the NHL. Prime example is Angelo Esposito, ripped up the QMJHL, couldn't hack it in the NHL. The players who make the NHL usually have good numbers in juniors and the AHL, but some can be late bloomers. He's only played 11 games this season thus far, likely starting most of his shifts in the defensive zone so points will be limited, playing on a team that's basically around the .500 mark. I'd rather see what Woo can do in the next 5 years than to give up on him 6 months after he was drafted.

Nothing is guarenteed. But, if you don't think points play a part in the probability of being an NHLer you are simply ignoring facts. Esposito lucked out playing with Radulov at 16 and his point totals imploded without him and that caused him to slip. You know who had the highest PPG in Esposito's draft year among draft eligibles in the CHL that year, a guy by the name of Patrick Kane. I honestly can't think of many elite NHLers who didn't put up big numbers in junior if you are looking at forwards like your Esposito example. It is basically Jamie Benn and to a lesser extent Marchand, and if you want to stretch the term elite than a guy like ROR. Being an elite point producer in junior doesn't guarantee to be an elite NHL producer, but not being one significantly reduces the likelihood of being one. No one can examine the future, but you can look at probabilities.

Great, I'm not saying trade for him. But, point production has proven to have a significant effect on the likelihood of CHL defenders making an impact in the NHL. There are exceptions, generally late bloomers, but that isn't the case with Woo who was a high-draft pick into the WHL. The other thing is that any CHL defender who projects as an NHLer who was a high-pick is going to be used heavily and in all-situations.

 

[ottomaddox]

That's really not the same thing. With the Rask/Raycroft thing Toronto had depth at the position with Rask/Pogge and thought Raycroft was a starting goalie now. They were trying to jump the time table, which to use a comparison with Vancouver/Benning would be like the Gustav Forsling for Adam Clendening trade.

For the suggestion of Vancouver trading Woo for Johnson, Woo is a fine prospect that still needs time and Johnson is a fine depth winger that is ready now but it just doesn't make sense because Vancouver is extremely shallow in D prospects but overflowing with depth players. You don't trade from a position of weakness to get something you already have in abundance.

No. The comparison had to do with the fact that Rask was recently drafted.

 

[connormcmuffin]

What a surprise! The Canucks have no need for Johnsson or Holl so why would we give up on a young prospect who's 11 games into his season in a tougher league than the QMJHL (which Vlasic averaged about a point a game). The Canucks have no need of AHL players like Holl or Johnsson right now, so why trade Woo who is 11 games into a season (yet that's long enough for you to say he hasn't tracked upwards). So why wouldn't you take the Canuck AHL players for your recent 2nd round draft picks?

Offering the Canucks Holl and Johnsson is the equivalent of the Leafs Kero and Boucher. You say you have no use for those two, the Canucks have no use for Holl and Johnsson.



Yeah, his 1 assist in 10 games is just screaming that he can play in the NHL and at age 23 too! He's an AHL player based on stats and is 5 years old than Woo. I think you'll soon see Woo in the AHL and Johnsson demoted. Then they'll be in the same league.

So any defensive defenseman (Tanev, Vlasic, Russell, etc.) have no business being in the NHL then? They are all defensive defensemen. The argument that you're trying to make that defensive defensemen = career AHLer, I just laugh at how stupid that sounds.

1 more NHL point than Woo will ever get. AJ was a beast in the SHL a better league that Woo has ever played in during those development years.

Your blind hate is cute.

Keep your prospect, I don't care, AJ is the only regular NHL in this proposal.

And the odds of becoming a stellar 'defensive defenseman' is what? There are back 15 in the NHL if that, Woo is going to become one of them? He had all the attention of scouts in his draft year being a projected 1st round pick and was exposed. Woo's stock is garbage.

 

[DownGoesMcDavid]

Jett Woo looked awesome in the 2 game WHL vs Russia mini series.

His skating is very dynamic and his physical presence will be valuable.

Good chance Jett makes team Canada WJC .

Zero chance Canucks trade him at this point in his development especially since Defence is a need in the prospect pool.

 

[Vancouver Canucks]

Eh, borderline no.

 

[Leaf Fans]

Alright well I’m glad you seem to know exactly what our prospects will amount to. We should hire you as GM

Don't hire me. My plan would be to exchange all the good players and prospects on the Cunucks for our bad and mediocre one.

 

[Go Wings]

Why trade Andreas Johnsson I thought he was going to win the calder eh Leaf fans

 

[Liferleafer]

Why trade Andreas Johnsson I thought he was going to win the calder eh Leaf fans

Looks at the standings.....shrugs.....moves to the next thread.