Confirmed with Link: [VAN/TBL] Cond. 1st ('20 / '21), 2019 3rd, Marek Mazanec for J.T. Miller

[CpatainCanuck]

Benning seems to love trading for or signing "meh" players. If you're going to give up a first rounder surely you could get someone better than JT Miller?

 

[CpatainCanuck]

Cap space has value. We saw that yesterday with the Marleau and Subban trades. Tampa needed to shed space and Benning still way overpaid.
It’s clear that the good GMs know that he will overpay once he makes up his mind to acquire a player. They just wait him out.
It’s like a game of poker. Benning is the guy at the table who’s eyes bug out and he starts to sweat when he has a good hand.
The rest of the table figured him out years ago.

 

[jigsaw99]

Benning seems to love trading for or signing "meh" players. If you're going to give up a first rounder surely you could get someone better than JT Miller?

1st and a 3rd*.

 

[Pavel96]

Guys get moved up and down the lineup all the time. Miller's ES production the last three seasons has been quite impressive given who he's played with.

Legitimate top 6 forwards in their prime are healthy scratches and regularly play on the 4th line (on a successful team with depth), and in the playoffs show no production and do not play in the top 6? Seems like the typical middle 6 winger that shows flashes of brilliance but never has the consistency to warrant being a legitimate top 6.

 

[kanuck87]

Legitimate top 6 forwards in their prime are healthy scratches and regularly play on the 4th line (on a successful team with depth), and in the playoffs show no production and do not play in the top 6? Seems like the typical middle 6 winger that shows flashes of brilliance but never has the consistency to warrant being a legitimate top 6.

Who's the worst player that you would consider to be a legitimate top-6 forward?

 

[CpatainCanuck]

Who's the worst player that you would consider to be a legitimate top-6 forward?

To be fair, even when missing a few games and being pushed out of Tampa's top 6 due to depth last year, his 47 points still tied him for 108th in forward scoring in the league. Technically there are 186 top-6 forwards in the league.

His 58 points the year before placed him 72nd in forward scoring, which means on the average team he'd be the 3rd highest scoring forward.

 

[Pavel96]

Who's the worst player that you would consider to be a legitimate top-6 forward?

Lol if you aren't going to answer my question what's the point in keeping this going. We'll have 4 years to watch this force fed top 6 winger. Now onto rebuilding the d.

 

[Blue and Green]

Legitimate top 6 forwards in their prime are healthy scratches and regularly play on the 4th line (on a successful team with depth), and in the playoffs show no production and do not play in the top 6? Seems like the typical middle 6 winger that shows flashes of brilliance but never has the consistency to warrant being a legitimate top 6.

You've picked one little piece of evidence that is contradicted by a mound of evidence about this player. 204 points in 4 seasons and doesn't hurt his team defensively = legit top 6 winger.

Geoff Courtnall (32 goals in 62 games at the trade deadline) was traded to the Oilers for the 1988 playoff run, got stapled to the 4th line and finished those playoffs with 0 goals, 3 assists in 19 games. Geoff Courtnall was before and continued to be for another decade thereafter a legit top-6 forward.

 

[kanuck87]

To be fair, even when missing a few games and being pushed out of Tampa's top 6 due to depth last year, his 47 points still tied him for 108th in forward scoring in the league. Technically there are 186 top-6 forwards in the league.

Yeah I mean that's kind of the point.

 

[Melvin]

We are talking about one of the greatest teams in history, who shuffled their lines around a lot because they were a historically elite team. Playing some games on the "4th line" in Tampa is hardly some indictment. He was a "healthy scratch" at the end of the season long after the Bolts had clinched and were resting guys for the playoffs. He played 75 games last year, missing a handful with injury and otherwise hadn't missed a game since 2014-15.

As far as I can tell he hasn't missed a playoff game since his rookie season.

 

[Pavel96]

You've picked one little piece of evidence that is contradicted by a mound of evidence about this player. 204 points in 4 seasons and doesn't hurt his team defensively = legit top 6 winger.

Geoff Courtnall (32 goals in 62 games at the trade deadline) was traded to the Oilers for the 1988 playoff run, got stapled to the 4th line and finished those playoffs with 0 goals, 3 assists in 19 games. Geoff Courtnall was before and continued to be for another decade thereafter a legit top-6 forward.

An entire season and multiple playoff runs is a tiny piece of evidence?

 

[kanuck87]

Lol if you aren't going to answer my question what's the point in keeping this going. We'll have 4 years to watch this force fed top 6 winger. Now onto rebuilding the d.

I can answer your question, but I need a baseline on what you think legitimate top-6 forwards look like. Once I know that, I can find players within that range that have been demoted/healthy scratches.

 

[Hit the post]

I think it’s irrelevant whether he’s a legit 2nd line winger or not (I happen to think that he is and doesn’t need forcefed minutes with EP to prove that). The question should be whether one thinks it’s a good idea to be dealing a potential major asset (non lottery protected pick) for a complementary type of forward (regardless of how good he might be) on THIS team.

It does indicate to me Benning is going to sign a UFA D regardless of price (as he has nothing else of tangible value to trade really).

 

[Pavel96]

I can answer your question, but I need a baseline on what you think legitimate top-6 forwards look like. Once I know that, I can find players within that range that have been demoted/healthy scratches.

Fair enough. Some great points have actually been made but I guess it is just difference of opinion. To me, a legitimate top 6 winger in their prime, does not repeatedly play on any 4th line, and would not get traded twice in two years etc, especially if he was on a great contract? Technically though if he's scoring that well, relative to others, sure a case can be made that he is performing in a top 6 role. I am taking issue with the apparent certainty of success and consistency of performance that I see comes with being called top 6 winger.

 

[Pavel96]

I think it’s irrelevant whether he’s a legit 2nd line winger or not (I happen to think that he is and doesn’t need forcefed minutes with EP to prove that). The question should be whether one thinks it’s a good idea to be dealing a potential major asset (non lottery protected pick) for a complementary type of forward (regardless of how good he might be) on THIS team.

Exactly and I think the point I am making, due to my own fault, is getting lost in that.

 

[Blue and Green]

An entire season and multiple playoff runs is a tiny piece of evidence?

What was wrong with his season? 47 points averaging less than 15 minutes is quite good. When you're on a team as stacked as 2019 Tampa (or 1988 Edmonton), you might not play so far up the lineup.

 

[Pavel96]

What was wrong with his season? 47 points averaging less than 15 minutes is quite good. When you're on a team as stacked as 2019 Tampa (or 1988 Edmonton), you might not play so far up the lineup.

So far everyone has completely glossed over his playoff performances. And again, to me, a legitimate top 6 forward does not repeatedly play on a 4th line, even on a good team. But that's my definition of a "legitimate" top 6 player. I could call him "capable" of playing in a top 6, as he clearly is, but at this point it's just a game being played with words. Based on the statistics, relative to other players, he does appear to have performed like a top 6 player. Hopefully he does that constantly over the next 4 years.

 

[CpatainCanuck]

I am not a big fan of the trade, but truthfully, taking last year out of the equation, Miller has been one of the most consistently healthy and consistently producing players around:

2016/17: 82 gp, 22g, 34a, 56 points
2017/18: 82 gp, 23g, 35a, 58 points
2018/19: 82gp, 23g, 35a, 58 points

I can't claim to have watched Miller closely in past seasons, but statistically he is certainly a top-6 winger who produces consistent offence. By all accounts he is good defensively as well.

 

[PetterssonSimp]

I think that overall fans overrate the value of draft picks in terms of actually using it to select a player. Every year we think all these draft eligible forwards would develop into first line star players. But in reality you would be happy if your team which drafted a Newhook or a Krebs end up with a JT Miller type player. Heck even a reasonable and good projection of Podkolzin would be a 2nd like type who puts up close to 25 goals and 55 points while being a solid 200 foot player. At one time, Miller was that too 10 talent prospect who was drafted 11th overall.

And yet Miller over the course of his career has proven he isn’t a 1st line talent. I’ll take the maybe when you’re a team in the position of the Canucks where they’ve missed more playoffs than they’ve made in the passed 10 years.
You always bank on the player with 7 years of RFA and development years ahead of them when you’re a team in the position Vancouver is in.

Doing this sets this team up like Ottawa/Toronto when they were non playoff teams making playoff moves. The team was 2 years away from the playoffs at what was their current rate, now it could easily be 5 years before the team competes. It could very well be a whole new core of players as well by the end of those years

 

[Pavel96]

I am not a big fan of the trade, but truthfully, taking last year out of the equation, Miller as been one of the most consistently healthy and consistently producing players around:

2016/17: 82 gp, 22g, 34a, 56 points
2017/18: 82 gp, 23g, 35a, 58 points
2018/19: 82gp, 23g, 35a, 58 points

I can't claim to have watched Miller closely in past seasons, but statistically he is certainly a top-6 winger who produces consistent offence. By all accounts he is good defensively as well.

That all sounds great- because it actually is, but hasn't he been traded twice in two years now, while in his prime?

 

[PetterssonSimp]

So I woke up this morning blissful in how the first four rounds went and then seething at the this trade.

My brain tells me to take a step back... Maybe I undervalue Miller. So, I go to look at numbers and cohorts.

So points per game... Let's see where he sits:

View media item 5643
Promise building. That's actually better than I thought. Ok... But I don't really know how many minutes he gets a game or how much he really plays on that TB powerplay last year. So.. was he being carried by those stars?

Let's start with the minutes... Maybe he's playing 25 minutes per game. Let's check his all situation points per 60 minutes (P/60):View media item 5645
Sweet baby Jesus... It isn't the minutes. In fact (getting excited), his productivity actually surpasses Boeser?! Maybe I was wrong... Maybe he was a diamond in the rough who was buried in that Bolts line-up!!! But my brain reminds me to check the situations he played in.

So, I go to his ESP/60 (even strength points per 60):

View media item 5639
And I cry a little inside... His points are inflated by ice time on the power play with Stamkos and Kucherov? Say it ain't so... The numbers must lie?! So, I race to his power play per 60 minutes... Trying to deny the logic that their has to be a correlative increase in PPP/60 if his ESP/60 is so low... And there it is:

View media item 5641
****!

I have done the opposite in trying to give myself comfort. The numbers show his points are largely a by-product of playing with Stamkos and Kucherov and that Lightning power play last year. Looking at the names around him, I ask myself... "Would you trade the value of a first (lottery protected for a year) at the deadline for the names around him based on even strength point production?" Nope. Not a first.

This is worse than I thought. We sold off the benefit of 3 years on the future pick ELC, the value of what could be a lottery pick, the value of our cap space... And we did so without more perfect information about whether the team is playoff competitive. And we did so when comparables are available in free agency?

Seriously. This deal is horrible. Benning got fleeced.

Source for media: QuantHockey.com

Been saying this for two whole mornings. Thanks for doing the work

 

[m9]

The thing that I think that people are missing is that the conditions on the pick dramatically decrease the odds of it being a top-15 pick. All that needs to happen for it NOT to be a top-15 pick is for the Canucks to make the playoffs in EITHER of the next two seasons. Is that a bet I would make? Probably not, but it's really not outlandish. You think there is a 0% chance the Canucks make the playoffs in the next two seasons? Of course not. So what is it then? If it's 50/50 then does the trade become acceptable?

Your last point is fair though. We would all like to see the team bargain hunt in free agency the way Gillis used to, I just take issue with people saying the trade is poor value. You can criticize the timing of the trade, in that the Canucks need to be closer to contention in order to expose themselves to this much risk (and I think people are overstating the amount of risk, see above,) but I don't buy that it's not a good trade value-wise.

I had a similar take on the Kesler trade, which I also thought was good value and shrewdly targetting an undervalued player on an excellent contract, but also was the wrong trade for them to make at the time because they should have been targetting futures who would now, five years later, be in their primes.

It's sad that we still believe the Canucks should be targetting futures though. In reality, this is a trade that *should* make a lot more sense, if the Canucks hadn't spun their wheels and mismanaged the last five years so catastrophically.

It's not really about Miller's value himself as this trade would make sense for a bunch of other teams in the league.

I felt similar to you about the Kesler trade under the thought that Bonino was a great contract they could move to acquire a better package or future 1st to a cap crunched team.

I think our only real difference is the level of risk as I think it's much higher based on the recent history of the team. There are too many scenarios where this can go bad.

Even under your own most optimistic probability you admit that it's a coin flip they make the playoffs next year. That means it's a coin flip (at best) where the Canucks fans are going into the 2020 season where they have missed the playoffs five years in a row and are staring at a Senators situation where they may be giving away a very high pick. You now have a frustrated and extremely anxious fanbase, all for a guy to play on your 2nd line. You are fine with a coin flip to determine that?

 

[yvrtojfk]

 

[PetterssonSimp]

So far everyone has completely glossed over his playoff performances. And again, to me, a legitimate top 6 forward does not repeatedly play on a 4th line, even on a good team. But that's my definition of a "legitimate" top 6 player. I could call him "capable" of playing in a top 6, as he clearly is, but at this point it's just a game being played with words. Based on the statistics, relative to other players, he does appear to have performed like a top 6 player. Hopefully he does that constantly over the next 4 years.

Middle 6 Tweener. I don’t know why people say he’s a legit Top6! If 14 mins a night is legit Top6 someone tell Virtanen’s agent, he’s signed for way too little.
Also this contract, is the new benchmark number for guys like virtanen who are capable of playing above Miller’s production in similar usage like top6 and PP times with the best players.

 

[TruGr1t]

This times 1 billion.