Confirmed with Link: [VAN/TBL] Cond. 1st ('20 / '21), 2019 3rd, Marek Mazanec for J.T. Miller

[CanaFan]

Feel free to look.

I've mentioned over and over again that I think fair value for a player like JT Miller is a pick in the 6-10 range, based on previous trades (Stepan, Hartman and Tatar).

You think 4 years of a 55 pt winger is worth a #6 pick???

That’s f***ing insane ...

 

[WetcoastOrca]

No, the point is that just throwing out names of guys we could draft with that pick is meaningless. By throwing out names like Pettersson and Boeser, is the argument that this pick guaranteed to end up being Pettersson or Boeser? If you're saying that it could be Pettersson or Boeser, well "could" has a wide range of outcomes.

Make a good argument.

I did make a good argument. I threw out the names of the people we drafted or should have drafted in the last five drafts with our first pick. Your rebuttal that we could just be giving up a Virtanen is beyond weak when in four out of the last five drafts we picked up or should have picked up a high impact player. You need to do much better than that I’m afraid.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

Feel free to look.

I've mentioned over and over again that I think fair value for a player like JT Miller is a pick in the 6-10 range, based on previous trades (Stepan, Hartman and Tatar).

If you think that a 6th pick is fair value for Miller then no wonder you’re happy with the trade. That’s a ridiculous overpayment plus the third round pick. It’s not even close.

 

[ProstheticConscience]

No, the point is that just throwing out names of guys we could draft with that pick is meaningless. By throwing out names like Pettersson and Boeser, is the argument that this pick guaranteed to end up being Pettersson or Boeser? If you're saying that it could be Pettersson or Boeser, well "could" has a wide range of outcomes.

Make a good argument.

The point is high 1st round draft picks are the most likely method of acquiring players with high upside like Pettersson or Draisaitl or any of the other stars of the game you can mention. Yeah, sure. A lot of the time they bust. Most draft picks never play in the NHL. But the real star players are overwhelmingly taken in the first round, and of those the highest percentage is overwhelmingly concentrated in the top 10 range. We still need those. The team I watched last year had a few good young players, a goalie standing on his head to eke out a few more loser points than the season before, and a shit ton of overpaid nothingness beyond that. The Canucks still need the kind of player that a high draft pick has the best chance of becoming. And more than a couple. The standard argument of mystery box << known commodity that always crops up when Benning throws draft picks away is getting very tiresome. Yeah, I like JT Miller. No problem whatsoever getting him. Massive problem with the price tag and the timing. I mean hey, I said earlier in this thread, look at what Gillis got Higgins for.

 

[MikeK]

I personally don’t think it’s s bad trade since at trade deadline teams give up similar assets for soon to be ufas. We traded for a 26 year old with 4 years left. He add a proven 2nd line winger to our line up right now.

Agreed. The idea that we could have gotten him for less just because TB is in cap crunch mode is BS in my opinion. Miller is a 26yr old top 6 forward on a very cap friendly contract by today's standards and with term. I don't have a problem with this deal at all. I think most people are freaking out because they assume Van will be another lottery team. If the 1st ends up being a 20something pick than this trade is solid.

 

[krutovsdonut]

i still hate the trade. we went from a team free to patiently rebuild according to the whims of fate to a team with a gun with its head to make the playoffs this year. that affects every decision we make.

i don't really care about jt miller as a player or whether it was market or not so much as the implications of acquiring a player on those terms.

i don't necessarily blame benning for the strategy. i can equally imagine the owner putting a gun to his head specifically to make this type of move, especially if the barrie deal was real and close.

but it does not really matter. this deal seals benning's fate unless he beats the odds. benning only gets one of the next two seasons at most to make the playoffs. this owner will panic if we are not there by christmas and benning will be gone as soon as they can find someone with a name willing to take the gig.

as for what happens now, the total lack of roster trades is what puzzles me. we have no roster or cap room to do what they seem to be doing.

 

[lawrence]

The teams that trade picks at the deadline are usually good and not the worst team in the league over the past 4 years.

Yes, I know what you mean, teams trying to add fire power for a playoff push or try to get in. But now we are trying to make this push from the start, and it’s not a ufa. I also understand the consequence, but it’s time for us to get better now. It was too much for just horvat boeser Petey to lead the offence.

 

[lawrence]

Agreed. The idea that we could have gotten him for less just because TB is in cap crunch mode is BS in my opinion. Miller is a 26yr old top 6 forward on a very cap friendly contract by today's standards and with term. I don't have a problem with this deal at all. I think most people are freaking out because they assume Van will be another lottery team. If the 1st ends up being a 20something pick than this trade is solid.

Gotten him for less? What? Tampa could have gotten him for more at a trade deadline ! Did people forget what Vegas had to give up for Tatar, what Winnipeg traded for to get vessey? They traded first rounders for pending ufas.

 

[kanuck87]

If you think that a 6th pick is fair value for Miller then no wonder you’re happy with the trade. That’s a ridiculous overpayment plus the third round pick. It’s not even close.

The market says that he's roughly worth a pick in this range. I'm not making this up based on my own personal feelings. My personal feeling tells me 6-10 is too much, but I can't argue with the facts.

 

[Addison Rae]

Yes, I know what you mean, teams trying to add fire power for a playoff push or try to get in. But now we are trying to make this push from the start, and it’s not a ufa. I also understand the consequence, but it’s time for us to get better now. It was too much for just horvat boeser Petey to lead the offence.

I don’t disagree with any of this, still wouldn’t do this deal though.

 

[Fraser28]

Anything inside the Top 10 is major overpayment. 11-15 is slight overpayment. 16-20 is fair value. 21-31 is a steal.

I'm personally confident enough that it will be in the 11-20 range to not be too nervous. I'm just happy to have a better team to watch immediately. Honestly, I don't care if it's not the perfect outcome two years from now. I'm ready for some good games to watch in 2019-20.

 

[VanJack]

If some Canucks fans are bent out of shape at the fact that the Canucks surrendered a first rounder in either 2020 or '21 for four years of J.T Miller, imagine what Leafs fans must be thinking? The Carolina Hurricanes basically got the same deal, in exchange for taking the remaining year of Patrick Marleau's contract.

But because the Leafs are in cap-hell, they basically didn't have much choice. Now that's REALLY a case of flushing a future first rounder.

 

[krutovsdonut]

You think 4 years of a 55 pt winger is worth a #6 pick???

That’s ****ing insane ...

that's pretty close if the contract is good and you actually get 4 years. the odds of getting a player like that at six are not that great.

the issue is whether the team is in a position to use the 55 point guy.

 

[Pavel96]

So he's going to come play with Petterson on the top line, have a career year and look great? He is a legit top 6 winger? Maybe?

https://www.espn.com/nhl/story/_/id...nd-pastrnak-landeskog-mackinnon-rantanen-more

"In ranking the best lines in the NHL, there's also what we'll call the Tampa Bay Lightning problem.
Last season, Nikita Kucherov and Steven Stamkos played with Vladislav Namestnikov, and things were pretty good. Then Vlad was traded, J.T. Miller joined the line, and things were not as good. "

And then there is this taken from a 2018-19 season preview:

"The player with question marks is JT Miller, and, because of that, his chart is most interesting here. He was hovering around average third-line performance with the Rangers until the trade. After the trade, he immediately spiked and climbed into comfortable second-line range by the end of the year. Even acknowledging that players can get hot for lots of reasons, it seems pretty clear that playing on Tampa’s top line sparked an improvement in Miller’s output."

"That leaves Miller positioned to have a career year. He signed an expensive extension this summer to keep him Tampa for another five years. Don’t be surprised if finding a home with Kuch and Stammer makes that contract look like a bargain."

So he was signed and expected to play on the first line, and score a career high in points, but played 75 games and got 47 pts? And he was moved off the first line going into the playoffs for a 21 year old in his second year and regulated to centering the fourth line, as to coincide with the 'expensive extension' he signed?

Tampa Bay Lightning 2018-2019 season preview: The top six forwards


So if you play him with Stamkos and Kucherov (Like Tampa did right after they traded for him) he performs like an average second liner, while playing on Tampa's top line (of all teams). I'm sure Petterson will match Stamkos' paltry 86 points that season (in his second year in the NHL) but who will provide Kuchorov's offence that brought in 100 pts and helped make JT look like a second liner?

 

[Phenomenon13]

i still hate the trade. we went from a team free to patiently rebuild according to the whims of fate to a team with a gun with its head to make the playoffs this year. that affects every decision we make.

i don't really care about jt miller as a player or whether it was market or not so much as the implications of acquiring a player on those terms.

i don't necessarily blame benning for the strategy. i can equally imagine the owner putting a gun to his head specifically to make this type of move, especially if the barrie deal was real and close.

but it does not really matter. this deal seals benning's fate unless he beats the odds. benning only gets one of the next two seasons at most to make the playoffs. this owner will panic if we are not there by christmas and benning will be gone as soon as they can find someone with a name willing to take the gig.

as for what happens now, the total lack of roster trades is what puzzles me. we have no roster or cap room to do what they seem to be doing.

I agree with most of what you said here.

I think the value is fine but the overall picture and direction of the team is the problem. It's sign of how the management team sees us. I don't believe we have the assets to be a contender yet. I believe we can be a playoff team which means mediocrity. We've now positioned ourselves as a win-now team. It's a big risk because we could be like the former Calgary Flames: too bad to be a cup threat and too good to be a lottery team.

This contract may also bind us against the Hughes and Petterson contracts that are about to come up.

 

[Buresflyingelbow]

The age/cap/style of play and term all make this a very good deal. He signed this in a market where they do not have a state tax and had a clause in his contract where it it was a NMC after this year.
Tampa actually pulled a fast one on him and after seeing what Hayes got at the deadline and in free agency how could you not like this deal?
The conditions on the first make this a equal trade and not a fleecing. Points per 60 with 47 points on just over 14 min a game is a great stat line and I’ll bet he reaches 70 playing here with a physical presence seeing as he had 115 hits last year.

It’s what we needed in our top 6 and he will produce lined up beside Pety or Horvat.

 

[RandV]

Gotten him for less? What? Tampa could have gotten him for more at a trade deadline ! Did people forget what Vegas had to give up for Tatar, what Winnipeg traded for to get vessey? They traded first rounders for pending ufas.

Prices change depending on the time of the season, and really it's all about leverage. Right now Tampa didn't have the luxury to wait till the trade deadline, they needed to clear a guy so they can resign Point. And with free agency right around the corner and teams trying to manage that and their RFA's while getting under the cap it should be a buyers market right now. If Benning was willing to trade to acquire salary there's a number of options he could have gone after: Zucker, Subban, Ristolainen, Barrie, etc, or just use the space on a cap dump like Marleau.

We'll never know who else was asking but it's extremely unlikely that Tampa had more options than we did.

 

[kanuck87]

The point is high 1st round draft picks are the most likely method of acquiring players with high upside like Pettersson or Draisaitl or any of the other stars of the game you can mention. Yeah, sure. A lot of the time they bust. Most draft picks never play in the NHL. But the real star players are overwhelmingly taken in the first round, and of those the highest percentage is overwhelmingly concentrated in the top 10 range. We still need those. The team I watched last year had a few good young players, a goalie standing on his head to eke out a few more loser points than the season before, and a **** ton of overpaid nothingness beyond that. The Canucks still need the kind of player that a high draft pick has the best chance of becoming. And more than a couple. The standard argument of mystery box << known commodity that always crops up when Benning throws draft picks away is getting very tiresome. Yeah, I like JT Miller. No problem whatsoever getting him. Massive problem with the price tag and the timing. I mean hey, I said earlier in this thread, look at what Gillis got Higgins for.

I agree that this wasn't the right time to be trading upside for a known commodity, and that's why I wouldn't make this trade if I were the GM, but ultimately I'm fine with the trade based on the expected value of that draft pick, because Miller is going to make this team better.

 

[PetterssonSimp]

If you think that a 6th pick is fair value for Miller then no wonder you’re happy with the trade. That’s a ridiculous overpayment plus the third round pick. It’s not even close.

And here I though asking for 4th and 16th from the Avs for Horvat was high! Who knew I could ask for more. Clearly that guy. But not me

 

[krutovsdonut]

as for value, there are a ton of posts out there questioning miller as a person and player. nobody loves the guy. at best they respect his talent and production, but wish he was more consistent and committed.

i did not want barrie because i saw him as an interim measure. a points guy but not a core guy. somebody who holds up a bad team. i see miller as the same thing but less helpful, and we paid more for him than i would have paid for barrie. if that was market we should have sucked it up and gone another way.

he is not someone i would target with my job on the line. i'd have gone for subban if that was the situation.

 

[holy]

JT Miller is one of those generic players who I've heard of but know nothing about.

 

[kanuck87]

You think 4 years of a 55 pt winger is worth a #6 pick???

That’s ****ing insane ...

I'm open to being wrong. What do you think Miller's value is and what evidence is there that suggest so?

 

[RealityCheck22]

The people that are fine with this trade pretty much same the same thing, it will make the Canucks more competitive and closer to the playoffs. Which is exactly why you don't make this trade. You don't give up a first to become more competitive. You give up a first to complete a top 5 team. Put it over the top.

This type of trade just ensures mediocrity. 16th place hell over and over.

 

[PetterssonSimp]

I'm open to being wrong. What do you think Miller's value is and what evidence is there that suggest so?

I’ve seen Tampa fans say a 25-31 overall first. So basically what the Canucks could have gotten if they’d taken on Marleau and then subsequently traded that 1st for Miller. But that’s so many moving parts and names that Dim would have gotten confused

 

[RealityCheck22]

I’ve seen Tampa fans say a 25-31 overall first. So basically what the Canucks could have gotten if they’d taken on Marleau and then subsequently traded that 1st for Miller. But that’s so many moving parts and names that Dim would have gotten confused

It needs to be written down on paper and stuff to help him figure it out