Confirmed with Link: [VAN/NYI] Canucks acquire F Anthony Beauvillier, F Aatu Raty, Conditional 1st in ‘23 or ‘24 for F Bo Horvat (25% Retention) - Part II

[4Twenty]

@racerjoe

Would you provide your list of centres in order until you hit Horvat my on the list?

You keep saying he’s not top 32 and it seems your methodology is based on points Per game? Is that correct?

How many seasons in the sample? Does ice time, quality of opposition, quality of linemates factor in?

Are you clipping the best shooting percentage spikes for all of the sample? Or just Horvat?

I await your answers.

 

[Rehabguy]

If you look at his numbers from the three seasons before this one, he's still full value as a goalscoring center even if he reverts to his prior rate. He's tied for 22nd in G/GP and is tied for 17th in raw scoring output in that same span. For points, he's tied for 39th in P/GP while being 31st for raw output. That's a 1st line center though not the typical pass-first version we're used to seeing.

I'm looking at both points per game and goals so I don't see where your argument is coming from here. Horvat's just outside of the top-32 in terms of pure points but I feel his goals offset that.

If we expand to looking at the top 96-forwards in the league it's not like his stats get less impressive. From 19-20 to 21-22, with the same filters as above, he's T35th in raw goals, T48th in goals per game, T67th in raw points, and T81st in points per game. He's full value as a first-line forward even excluding this season.

You guys really take out the calculators.

 

[RobertKron]

The contract isn't bad when you consider the Isles should get prime years for most of the deal. It's a big gamble for sure but not a desperate one like Miller's.

Even if Bo's prime is just a 50-60 points player that's still a 30/30 center who's amazing at faceoffs and impactful without the puck offensively. His two-way play is overrated and he can be a laborious skater, but he's not a turnover machine and he'll be supported by a much stronger defense in the Isles. As long as he sticks to his role he'll be a great addition for years even if slightly overpaid, and if they get more of 2022-23 Bo he might just be what the team needed to keep their competitive window open for longer.

I won't pretend to follow the Islanders closely, but my uneducated take is that Horvat is about as good a fit as they might find to play with Barzal, take face-offs, help him out with some of the C responsibilities, and play as a goal scoring power winger on the offensive side of the puck. No idea if that's what they're going to do with him, but he'd be a pretty damn appealing target if I were them.

 

[racerjoe]

If you look at his numbers from the three seasons before this one, he's still full value as a goalscoring center even if he reverts to his prior rate. He's tied for 22nd in G/GP and is tied for 17th in raw scoring output in that same span. For points, he's tied for 39th in P/GP while being 31st for raw output. That's a 1st line center though not the typical pass-first version we're used to seeing.

I'm looking at both points per game and goals so I don't see where your argument is coming from here. Horvat's just outside of the top-32 in terms of pure points but I feel his goals offset that.

If we expand to looking at the top 96-forwards in the league it's not like his stats get less impressive. From 19-20 to 21-22, with the same filters as above, he's T35th in raw goals, T48th in goals per game, T67th in raw points, and T81st in points per game. He's full value as a first-line forward even excluding this season.

The only thing there that seems to stand out as 1st line is goals... you can't say you look at both, when one clearly shows its not 1st line. Even in your words just outside 1st line numbers.

Larkin will get more because he’s a full year younger.

I don’t believe Horvat has set a market. 10% ish for this type of player is normal. Especially a C.

I won’t ask what 10% cap players are to you but whats the most cap you’d pay a player?

Project Pettersson to maintain his current production what’s that worth? Matthews in a couple years? McDavid?

I think you’re being very rigid and idealistic in your cap. That’s fair. I just think it’s undervaluing the players.

I should have worded set the market better. But for these two he sets a floor for sure, especially as the younger better player.

I agree prices are going up, that have never been my argument, and Petey will get more than 10%, McDavid will get whatever he wants... literally. Maybe he takes less but he could actually get what ever he wants up to league max.

@racerjoe

Would you provide your list of centres in order until you hit Horvat my on the list?

You keep saying he’s not top 32 and it seems your methodology is based on points Per game? Is that correct?

How many seasons in the sample? Does ice time, quality of opposition, quality of linemates factor in?

Are you clipping the best shooting percentage spikes for all of the sample? Or just Horvat?

I await your answers.

Why would I do what you did not? I have said I think Schenn is just about as perfect a comp as you can get, and his cap % today is $7.2 mil in todays cap.

I think yes pts are the easiest thing to judge, but yes hockey is more than points. All sorts of things come into a player evaluation.

It also seems to be the driver of the conversations people have been having here. Specifically when used in the way it has here to inflate his numbers. Tables did a fine job of showing numbers, and I have said already Bo is a good goal scoring Centre. He just isn't the 8th best in the league, and using a half season of those numbers to inflate where does fall is dishonest.

 

[Tables of Stats]

The only thing there that seems to stand out as 1st line is goals... you can't say you look at both, when one clearly shows its not 1st line. Even in your words just outside 1st line numbers.

It's like you didn't even read a word I wrote. He's clearly a first-line player in terms of points even when you exclude his current breakout season, if you include this season he's even more firmly cemented as a high-value first-liner on a team that needs goals and face-off wins.

 

[racerjoe]

It's like you didn't even read a word I wrote. He's clearly a first-line player in terms of points even when you exclude his current breakout season, if you include this season he's even more firmly cemented as a high-value first-liner on a team that needs goals and face-off wins.

Sorry I should have said first line centre...

 

[Tables of Stats]

Sorry I should have said first line centre...

I think even by that standard he's clearly in the conversation but I doubt we'll see eye to eye on this so I'll leave it where it stands.

 

[4Twenty]

The only thing there that seems to stand out as 1st line is goals... you can't say you look at both, when one clearly shows its not 1st line. Even in your words just outside 1st line numbers.



I should have worded set the market better. But for these two he sets a floor for sure, especially as the younger better player.

I agree prices are going up, that have never been my argument, and Petey will get more than 10%, McDavid will get whatever he wants... literally. Maybe he takes less but he could actually get what ever he wants up to league max.



Why would I do what you did not? I have said I think Schenn is just about as perfect a comp as you can get, and his cap % today is $7.2 mil in todays cap.

I think yes pts are the easiest thing to judge, but yes hockey is more than points. All sorts of things come into a player evaluation.

It also seems to be the driver of the conversations people have been having here. Specifically when used in the way it has here to inflate his numbers. Tables did a fine job of showing numbers, and I have said already Bo is a good goal scoring Centre. He just isn't the 8th best in the league, and using a half season of those numbers to inflate where does fall is dishonest.

On nhl.com Horvat is 34th in ppg for centres over the past 5 years. To me even just going by that puts him close enough to the arbitrary line of “first line centre”.

When you re-sort the same nhl.com 5 year split by toi/gm hes 13th overall.

Also 13th in goals. 7th in PP goals.

31st in EV strength points.

NHL Stats

The official source for NHL Stats including skaters, goalies, teams stats and more.

www.nhl.com

And no I’m not getting rid of this season. Even if you took 10 goals away he’s still a top player at a premium position whose current salary will be dwarfed in no time.

I can see why you think Schenn taking a retirement deal is the one you prefer. But I think that’s a situation where he left money to stay where he had won and is settled.

I find the constant discounting of his current season more dishonest than anything. It counts in the evaluation. Try to imagine it’s just numbers and not old #53 on blue.

 

[MS]

On nhl.com Horvat is 34th in ppg for centres over the past 5 years. To me even just going by that puts him close enough to the arbitrary line of “first line centre”.

When you re-sort the same nhl.com 5 year split by toi/gm hes 13th overall.

Also 13th in goals. 7th in PP goals.

31st in EV strength points.

NHL Stats

The official source for NHL Stats including skaters, goalies, teams stats and more.

www.nhl.com

And no I’m not getting rid of this season. Even if you took 10 goals away he’s still a top player at a premium position whose current salary will be dwarfed in no time.

I can see why you think Schenn taking a retirement deal is the one you prefer. But I think that’s a situation where he left money to stay where he had won and is settled.

I find the constant discounting of his current season more dishonest than anything. It counts in the evaluation. Try to imagine it’s just numbers and not old #53 on blue.

Two titanic shifts have happened to Bo Horvat in the past couple years :

1) He actually figured out how he needs to play to be successful. I don't know how many times I said between 2017-2020 or so that this was a guy with a Jarome Iginla body and Jarome Iginla skillset who should be playing a dominant down low power game and using his strength and shot in high-danger areas, but instead had fallen in love with trying to be a dangly transition scorer constantly attempting highlight reel goals. In the last two years, he figured that out - the dumb turnovers trying to overstickhandle the puck have disappeared and he's playing a much simpler power/shooting game that plays to his strengths.

2) He finally got linemates. He spent several years playing with absolute dreck - Pearson, Virtanen, Roussel, Eriksson. Bottom-6 players. The best was Pearson who is a career 35 points/82 guy. What would a guy like Zibanejad look like getting buried in defensive minutes with those linemates? What would Horvat look like getting creamy offensive minutes with Panarin on his line?

 

[racerjoe]

People keep repeating things as if people aren't agreeing to what they are saying. Then using those things as why we disagree.

Bo has gotten better... yes
Salaries will go up... yes
discounting this year... half truth. Discounting his goal scoring that has already cooled off. Again where will he end?

With his numbers, specifically points I think that is probably an accurate assessment of where he actually is. As I have said a very good goal scoring 2C. That isn't a bad thing. It just also shouldn't be 10% of your Cap.

 

[Siludin]

Project Pettersson to maintain his current production what’s that worth? Matthews in a couple years? McDavid?

Claude Giroux 12.87% on his third contract would be where I evaluate Pettersson

Edit: this puts him at a ~$10.75m cap hit at a $83.5m cap, which is next year's cap and likely what it will be what the percentage is evaluated against when he re-signs (hopefully during the season).
In the above case, his % of the following season's cap (the first year the contract is active) would be a lower percentage of total cap. Capfriendly projects the 2024-2025 season to have a $87.5m cap, so $10.75m would be only 12.29% of $87.5. If you consider 12.87% of projected $87.5m cap, that would put Pettersson at a $11.26m cap hit.
So essentially anything between ~$10.75m-$11.26m cap hit would be his next contract probably. Anything less than that would be a bargain.

Edit 2: For some reason I always use Markus Naslund's $6m cap hit against the initial $39m '05/'06 cap as a barometer for contracts the Canucks sign. Naslund's $6m cap hit was 15.38% of the total cap

 

[rypper]

I would pretty easily give Pettersson 10-11m.

 

[VanJack]

Now that the Horvat contract has leaked out ($8.5m for eight years), the debate about trading him needs to be laid to rest.

That contract would have deep-sixed this capped out franchise for years if they'd ever entertained it. So I guess the only debate is the return the Canucks got. Because Horvat was leaving at the end of the season, regardless.

 

[Pastor Of Muppetz]

Two titanic shifts have happened to Bo Horvat in the past couple years :

1) He actually figured out how he needs to play to be successful. I don't know how many times I said between 2017-2020 or so that this was a guy with a Jarome Iginla body and Jarome Iginla skillset who should be playing a dominant down low power game and using his strength and shot in high-danger areas, but instead had fallen in love with trying to be a dangly transition scorer constantly attempting highlight reel goals. In the last two years, he figured that out - the dumb turnovers trying to overstickhandle the puck have disappeared and he's playing a much simpler power/shooting game that plays to his strengths.

2) He finally got linemates. He spent several years playing with absolute dreck - Pearson, Virtanen, Roussel, Eriksson. Bottom-6 players. The best was Pearson who is a career 35 points/82 guy. What would a guy like Zibanejad look like getting buried in defensive minutes with those linemates? What would Horvat look like getting creamy offensive minutes with Panarin on his line?

Here, Bo was playing 2C behind Pettersson, and in Boudreau's 'run and gun' system, he flourished.

He will be the 1C in NY, and will certainly have quality line mates, but he'll also be facing the oppositions best checking lines...The Islanders also have a fairly conservative defensive structure.

It will certainly be interesting to see if he can maintain his scoring touch on his new team.

 

[arttk]

@racerjoe

Would you provide your list of centres in order until you hit Horvat my on the list?

You keep saying he’s not top 32 and it seems your methodology is based on points Per game? Is that correct?

How many seasons in the sample? Does ice time, quality of opposition, quality of linemates factor in?

Are you clipping the best shooting percentage spikes for all of the sample? Or just Horvat?

I await your answers.

Do you honestly believe there are 30 1C in this league?
There are a bunch of 2Cs playing on the 1st line because there aren’t enough 1Cs around and there are like a handful of teams that have like 2 1Cs like Edmonton and Pitts.

I wouldn’t really stack tank centers and assume a center that is ranked like 20ish is automatically a 1C because there has to be 32 1C in this league. I mean do you think Arizona, Anaheim, Nashville, St. Louis, Philly, Chicago, Montreal have actual 1C playing for the right now or they are crap partly because they have a 2C filling in for a true 1C.

Hell I don’t think people think Nuge is a 1C and he’s having a monster year.

 

[vanarchy]

The fact that Horvat put the Canucks on his 16 team No-Trade list shows the level of animosity between the 2 sides.

What a ridiculous post. Some of you guys just say anything

 

[F A N]

Two titanic shifts have happened to Bo Horvat in the past couple years :

1) He actually figured out how he needs to play to be successful. I don't know how many times I said between 2017-2020 or so that this was a guy with a Jarome Iginla body and Jarome Iginla skillset who should be playing a dominant down low power game and using his strength and shot in high-danger areas, but instead had fallen in love with trying to be a dangly transition scorer constantly attempting highlight reel goals. In the last two years, he figured that out - the dumb turnovers trying to overstickhandle the puck have disappeared and he's playing a much simpler power/shooting game that plays to his strengths.

2) He finally got linemates. He spent several years playing with absolute dreck - Pearson, Virtanen, Roussel, Eriksson. Bottom-6 players. The best was Pearson who is a career 35 points/82 guy. What would a guy like Zibanejad look like getting buried in defensive minutes with those linemates? What would Horvat look like getting creamy offensive minutes with Panarin on his line?

That's been the point I've been making without your analysis.

After years of incredibly consistent goal scoring from season to season, there has been an undeniable uptake in Horvat's goal scoring. He's now had back to back 30+ goal seasons. Does that drive a re-rating here? In terms of goal scoring, I think it should.

Prioritizing Miller over Horvat made sense from the perspective that management thinks Miller is a better C than Horvat and management saw this as a 2 year retool. They might have also thought that they could re-sign Horvat for ~$7M AAV give or take.

Horvat is a good player. I don't know any one of us here who saw him as a #1C. Heck, I don't think the majority here saw him as 1B type C who can anchor the 2nd line on a championship level club (despite Horvat's clutch playoff scoring in the past). As such, we didn't value him has a player the Canucks should do everything to keep and Horvat started climbing up the goal scoring charts his price did go up. We can't keep everybody and the Canucks chose to keep someone else.

Personally, I think Horvat has a bit of Kesler in him. I don't think giving him better linemates (except perhaps an elite playmaking left winger) will do a whole lot for Horvat.

 

[Rehabguy]

I’m of the mindset that you allocate the appropriate cap space based upon what everyone understands are your team’s greatest needs. If two players of equal skill fit the bill just take the cheaper of the two. For many teams including the Islanders Horvat fit their greatest needs and there was so one else available to fill that role. It’s all supply and demand and his asking price was fair. It’s basic economics really. You don’t deny your team the opportunity to compete for the Stanley Cup by making such ridiculous rules in your head as some of you are doing that you shouldn’t spend more than 10% of your cap on someone like Horvat even though he may fulfill your teams greatest needs. That’s just plain stupid- really, it is.

 

[4Twenty]

People keep repeating things as if people aren't agreeing to what they are saying. Then using those things as why we disagree.

Bo has gotten better... yes
Salaries will go up... yes
discounting this year... half truth. Discounting his goal scoring that has already cooled off. Again where will he end?

With his numbers, specifically points I think that is probably an accurate assessment of where he actually is. As I have said a very good goal scoring 2C. That isn't a bad thing. It just also shouldn't be 10% of your Cap.

Why not answer any of the questions?

“Shouldn’t be 10%” - give us more insight pal. What’s a 10% C. How high would you go?

The real dumb thing about this weird hardline is the cap moves. What’s 10% on year one shrinks every subsequent season.

Any who let’s wait and see like you did for this retool on the fly that’s ending in a tank.

Do you honestly believe there are 30 1C in this league?
There are a bunch of 2Cs playing on the 1st line because there aren’t enough 1Cs around and there are like a handful of teams that have like 2 1Cs like Edmonton and Pitts.

I wouldn’t really stack tank centers and assume a center that is ranked like 20ish is automatically a 1C because there has to be 32 1C in this league. I mean do you think Arizona, Anaheim, Nashville, St. Louis, Philly, Chicago, Montreal have actual 1C playing for the right now or they are crap partly because they have a 2C filling in for a true 1C.

Hell I don’t think people think Nuge is a 1C and he’s having a monster year.

Follow along art it’s your buddy joe with the hard line top 32 thing. I agree it’s a red herring. Listing players like that is dumb. Especially by points. I couldn’t give two shits whether he fits into a weird top 32 thing at all. I actually avoided responding to his claim numerous times because I knew someone like you would come at me for the response.

He ranks players l by position then by ppg. I think it’s simplistic and dismisses too much.

The dumbest part of it all is only Horvat gets his best season docked because of shooting%. But none of the list racer wanted came even close to the same level of scrutiny. It’s called stacking the deck.

Joe won’t even identify what a 10% of the cap centre is. He won’t mention if he also ranks defensman by ppg.

It’s just bad faith.

My thoughts are here.

Agree to disagree. Peace bros.

 

[ChilliBilly]

well this thread has sure become a waste of time. tiresome.

 

[604]

The fact that Horvat put the Canucks on his 16 team No-Trade list shows the level of animosity between the 2 sides.

The fact that you think this is a fact is amazing!

Can you please name your source so we can ignore them in the future?

 

[m9]

I filtered the stats for the last 3 seasons by centers and, excluding players with less than 100 games played over that span, Horvat is tied for 32nd in terms of P/GP; 29th in terms of raw points scored. In terms of goalscoring, he's tied for 9th in G/GP and tied for 6th in terms of actual goals scored. He logs big minutes and wins faceoffs as well. It feels dishonest to say that he doesn't score enough to be a 1st line center.

I like this 3-year framing, it feels pretty accurate in terms of what you see with the eye test as well.

My biggest question in all of this isn't whether or not the Canucks should have signed him (probably not, given where they are at) or how good Bo has been the last few years (borderline #1 center by most metrics) or even if this contract is fair is comparison to past contracts (probably, can see both sides). I think some good points have been raised about him trending up overall and his weak linemates in the past.

I just have major questions if he will be as productive of a player over this next contract. I think that you need to be very comfortable paying Bo as a 60pt player for the bulk of this contract because that's what it will end up being. If you're good with that then this contract is fine.

 

[Just A Bit Outside]

Really looking forward to reading posts about Horvat for the next 8yrs.

 

[m9]

Really looking forward to reading posts about Horvat for the next 8yrs.

It's literally the Horvat trade thread

 

[Just A Bit Outside]

It's literally the Horvat trade thread

Beau and Raty are people too...