Confirmed with Link: [VAN/DAL] Canucks acquire F Jason Dickinson for 2021 3rd Round Pick

[Hit the post]

There is zero chance that Dickinson receives an award high enough that the Canucks have the option to walk away from an arbitration award.

Hopefully the Canucks research this thread and go in with comparables that let the team lock him up for 2 years at 1.5m aav.

I’d normally say zero but in the arbitration case, we’ve got Mumbles & Weisbrod involved in the case.

 

[deckercky]

I'm not worried about Dickinson receiving too much in arb as him getting even 2 million might be taking a million away from offering it to EP or Hughes.



I agree Dallas did better than Avs on term but regardless I did not ever think Heiskanen would receive 8 plus per or Makar would get 9 plus prior to them getting it. I realize they are great players and probably 2 of the best at the position moving forward however with the flat cap I was under the impression salaries wouldn't rise as quickly as they have now.

I don't think Makar or Heiskanen really represent raises. There hasn't been young defencemen with their pedigree who has played so well, so fast since Doughty. Elite players get paid and everyone else will fight over the scraps.

Hughes' play last year was clearly a tier down from those two.

 

[82Ninety42011]

I don't think Makar or Heiskanen really represent raises. There hasn't been young defencemen with their pedigree who has played so well, so fast since Doughty. Elite players get paid and everyone else will fight over the scraps.

Hughes' play last year was clearly a tier down from those two.

I wholeheartedly agree however JP barry the agent for both Pettersson and Hughes is gonna push a different narrative. I have a feeling he's gonna negotiate both contracts inadvertently together. Meaning he's gonna push the two as a pair that runs the Canucks offense. I think we're gonna need to move out more cap to get them signed as I don't believe the pair come in together on a long-term deal under 17. Honestly, it probably will be higher. My guess is EP gets 10x8 and Huggy 7.5x8. If they go bridge could be lower but considering how salaries are going and when the cap does rise we need these guys signed so then we can add more later.

Edit, that Pearson signing looks worse every day now.

 

[iceburg]

I wholeheartedly agree however JP barry the agent for both Pettersson and Hughes is gonna push a different narrative. I have a feeling he's gonna negotiate both contracts inadvertently together. Meaning he's gonna push the two as a pair that runs the Canucks offense. I think we're gonna need to move out more cap to get them signed as I don't believe the pair come in together on a long-term deal under 17. Honestly, it probably will be higher. My guess is EP gets 10x8 and Huggy 7.5x8. If they go bridge could be lower but considering how salaries are going and when the cap does rise we need these guys signed so then we can add more later.

'

Of course he is but management has the right to have their own narrative:

For Hughes, the response is simply: "we really hope he gets to where you say he will but he hasn't quite shown it yet. So, now let's talk bridge"

For Pettersson: "We really think he will get to be a 100 point guy but there is a risk for us since he hasn't been there yet (insert comment on injuries potentially limiting his longterm upside if they want to go down that road - there a risk in this narrative). We're willing to talk long term but it needs to be reasonable and recognize that risk. otherwise we're looking at a bridge."

 

[82Ninety42011]

'

Of course he is but management has the right to have their own narrative:

For Hughes, the response is simply: "we really hope he gets to where you say he will but he hasn't quite shown it yet. So, now let's talk bridge"

For Pettersson: "We really think he will get to be a 100 point guy but there is a risk for us since he hasn't been there yet (insert comment on injuries potentially limiting his longterm upside if they want to go down that road - there a risk in this narrative). We're willing to talk long term but it needs to be reasonable and recognize that risk. otherwise we're looking at a bridge."

I hope you're right but Barry knows Canucks need them and has them over a barrel. I just wish this get's resolved shortly and doesn't drag into training camp or worse.

 

[iceburg]

I hope you're right but Barry knows Canucks need them and has them over a barrel. I just wish this get's resolved shortly and doesn't drag into training camp or worse.

Ah, there's the rub. The key to any negotiation is to "Care....but not that much". This was the mantra of Herb Cohen, considered to be one of the top negotiators globally at one time. His point, you need to be willing to walk away if the price is too high. And the opposing party needs to know and believe you are willing to walk away.

That uneasiness you are feeling that leads you to want to get this done sooner than later is exactly what JP Barry hopes Benning is feeling. JB needs to counter that by patience. By communicating, in subtle ways at first, that they are making alternative plans. Maybe, for example, trading EPs rights for Jack Eikel. Now, be clear, I would prefer not to do that deal. But if JP Barry believes that JB is willing to do such a deal if the ask gets beyond a certain point, it balances the playing field.

JP Barry does not have all the leverage. It just feels that way.

 

[RobertKron]

Ah, there's the rub. The key to any negotiation is to "Care....but not that much". This was the mantra of Herb Cohen, considered to be one of the top negotiators globally at one time. His point, you need to be willing to walk away if the price is too high. And the opposing party needs to know and believe you are willing to walk away.

That uneasiness you are feeling that leads you to want to get this done sooner than later is exactly what JP Barry hopes Benning is feeling. JB needs to counter that by patience. By communicating, in subtle ways at first, that they are making alternative plans. Maybe, for example, trading EPs rights for Jack Eikel. Now, be clear, I would prefer not to do that deal. But if JP Barry believes that JB is willing to do such a deal if the ask gets beyond a certain point, it balances the playing field.

JP Barry does not have all the leverage. It just feels that way.

I mean, he kind of does have all the leverage. The Canucks need EP far more than EP needs the Canucks. He may want to stay here, but there are exceedingly few scenarios in which negotiations fall apart that don't result in EP getting paid.

Conversely, there are almost no scenarios where this falls apart that don't involve the Canucks taking an enormous hit both in on-ice product as well as in the PR sphere. There's basically no situation where EP ends up leaving and it's not an absolute catastrophe for Benning. At some point, you can bluff all you want, but it would take a real idiot on the other side of the table not to see the reality of the situation.

Does that mean that they should just cave to whatever he wants? Obviously not - you still have to negotiate and try to get a situation that works for you, but we're kidding ourselves if we think that the team has any real significant power here.

 

[bandwagonesque]

I mean, he kind of does have all the leverage. The Canucks need EP far more than EP needs the Canucks. He may want to stay here, but there are exceedingly few scenarios in which negotiations fall apart that don't result in EP getting paid.

Conversely, there are almost no scenarios where this falls apart that don't involve the Canucks taking an enormous hit both in on-ice product as well as in the PR sphere. There's basically no situation where EP ends up leaving and it's not an absolute catastrophe for Benning. At some point, you can bluff all you want, but it would take a real idiot on the other side of the table not to see the reality of the situation.

Does that mean that they should just cave to whatever he wants? Obviously not - you still have to negotiate and try to get a situation that works for you, but we're kidding ourselves if we think that the team has any real significant power here.

The team does have significant power -- they control his rights. Sentences like "The Canucks need EP far more than EP needs the Canucks" don't really mean much. No player "needs" the team they play for. Contract negotiations are almost entirely driven by the player's performance and the degree of leverage the team actually has on paper, according to the terms of the CBA.

 

[RobertKron]

The team does have significant power -- they control his rights. Sentences like "The Canucks need EP far more than EP needs the Canucks" don't really mean much. No player "needs" the team they play for. Contract negotiations are almost entirely driven by the player's performance and the degree of leverage the team actually has on paper, according to the terms of the CBA.

Them controlling his rights means little as far as bullying negotiations here. They can't let him sit out, since Benning has just gone all in on this season. They've made him the face of the franchise, so any threat to just up and trade him to some unappealing location is realistically pretty hollow. Yes, they control his rights and could do all kinds of things with that, but those options bring a significant and real risk of costing Benning his job.

Keep in mind, also, that I’m replying to the idea that it’s a realistic scenario for Benning to gain leverage by pretending like he’s going to trade Pettersson for Eichel, or walk away from him and leave him unable to play. Those aren’t realistic scenarios, so they aren’t leverage.

 

[Catamarca Livin]

I hope you're right but Barry knows Canucks need them and has them over a barrel. I just wish this get's resolved shortly and doesn't drag into training camp or worse.

Petterson and Hughes did not have great years and they have not made big money yet. I think both sides are motivated to make a deal. If they sit it hurts them as well. I prefer Canucks to be negotiate strongly as these deals are based largely on projections not what they have done. Hughes has little leverage and Petterson must want to get back on ice. Both are going to do very well.

 

[BluesyShoes]

I wholeheartedly agree however JP barry the agent for both Pettersson and Hughes is gonna push a different narrative. I have a feeling he's gonna negotiate both contracts inadvertently together. Meaning he's gonna push the two as a pair that runs the Canucks offense. I think we're gonna need to move out more cap to get them signed as I don't believe the pair come in together on a long-term deal under 17. Honestly, it probably will be higher. My guess is EP gets 10x8 and Huggy 7.5x8. If they go bridge could be lower but considering how salaries are going and when the cap does rise we need these guys signed so then we can add more later.

Edit, that Pearson signing looks worse every day now.

How on earth does Petey get 10x8? Can you break that down annually? His current day production is 7-8M aav, and we are betting on him getting better. Landeskog got fair market value, and he's a captain and pwfd. If the remaining RFA years are around 8M, that means he's making close to 12M in his UFA years. That's not happening.

 

[bandwagonesque]

Them controlling his rights means little as far as bullying negotiations here. They can't let him sit out, since Benning has just gone all in on this season. They've made him the face of the franchise, so any threat to just up and trade him to some unappealing location is realistically pretty hollow. Yes, they control his rights and could do all kinds of things with that, but those options bring a significant and real risk of costing Benning his job.

Keep in mind, also, that I’m replying to the idea that it’s a realistic scenario for Benning to gain leverage by pretending like he’s going to trade Pettersson for Eichel, or walk away from him and leave him unable to play. Those aren’t realistic scenarios, so they aren’t leverage.

My point is that "bullying negotiations," in so far as this constitutes the two sides levelling or implying threats, doesn't actually happen that much and there's no evidence it's happening here. Cloak and dagger stuff does happen, but in general the course of negotiations are determined by the player's performance, the amount of actual leverage the team possesses by virtue of the player's free agent status, and what length of contract the player and agent want. This thread basically consists of posters saying this negotiation is fundamentally different somehow without supplying any real argument to support this. Pretty much all young stars are the faces of their franchise, and all those teams "need" them.

 

[iceburg]

I mean, he kind of does have all the leverage. The Canucks need EP far more than EP needs the Canucks. He may want to stay here, but there are exceedingly few scenarios in which negotiations fall apart that don't result in EP getting paid.

Conversely, there are almost no scenarios where this falls apart that don't involve the Canucks taking an enormous hit both in on-ice product as well as in the PR sphere. There's basically no situation where EP ends up leaving and it's not an absolute catastrophe for Benning. At some point, you can bluff all you want, but it would take a real idiot on the other side of the table not to see the reality of the situation.

Does that mean that they should just cave to whatever he wants? Obviously not - you still have to negotiate and try to get a situation that works for you, but we're kidding ourselves if we think that the team has any real significant power here.

Well we disagree then. I do see your point. But there has been absolutely no negotiation ever where one party had no options. They might not like the option but there is always an option. Again, in the words of Herb Cohen, "I care, but no that much". More often than not it's a perceived lack of options that leads one party to lose the deal.

Benning has to have a line and that line has to be defined by what is good for the club as a whole. That doesn't mean good for JB. He might end up losing his job. That doesn't mean avoiding immediate criticism and pain from the fans. Fans get emotional and you get a lot of "they have to sign EP". No they actually don't. They have to work towards a good deal for the club. If it's a bad deal for the club, don't sign. Of course that will mean some pain. But they have avoided greater pain in the process. It simply negotiations.

 

[deckercky]

How on earth does Petey get 10x8? Can you break that down annually? His current day production is 7-8M aav, and we are betting on him getting better. Landeskog got fair market value, and he's a captain and pwfd. If the remaining RFA years are around 8M, that means he's making close to 12M in his UFA years. That's not happening.

8x$10m is pretty much on point for what Pettersson should get on an 8 year deal. Maybe $9.5m.

Hughes is quite a bit lower given his position, the flaws in his game, and his weaker contractual status.

 

[RobertKron]

My point is that "bullying negotiations," in so far as this constitutes the two sides levelling or implying threats, doesn't actually happen that much and there's no evidence it's happening here. Cloak and dagger stuff does happen, but in general the course of negotiations are determined by the player's performance, the amount of actual leverage the team possesses by virtue of the player's free agent status, and what length of contract the player and agent want. This thread basically consists of posters saying this negotiation is fundamentally different somehow without supplying any real argument to support this. Pretty much all young stars are the faces of their franchise, and all those teams "need" them.

I don't disagree with much of this, but this situation is somewhat different in that Benning has just spent the past however many weeks indicating with words, and then showing with actions that he needs the team to make the playoffs this year, and that he's willing to create problems down the road in order to make it happen.

A typical scenario would be the agent asking for whatever, and the team coming back to say that it doesn't fit their budget structure and that they won't make a deal that compromises this. The threat, either implicit or explicit, is that they will let the player sit out and take the short term pain to make sure that they're structuring things the way they want to for the future. Example being like every single time Brian Burke has ever spoken about negotiations ever, and driving people to the airport and whatever other blowhard shit he's always on about. In this situation, though, Benning has basically spent the time since the season ended telling everyone who will listen that he wholeheartedly intends to be the one who blinks.

 

[RobertKron]

Well we disagree then. I do see your point. But there has been absolutely no negotiation ever where one party had no options. They might not like the option but there is always an option. Again, it the words of Herb Cohen, "I care, but no that much". More often than not it's a perceived lack of options that leads one party to lose the deal.

Benning has to have a line and that line has to be defined by what is good for the club as a whole. That doesn't mean good for JB. He might end up losing his job. That doesn't mean avoiding immediate criticism and pain from the fans. Fans get emotional and you get a lot of "they have to sign EP". No they actually don't. They have to work towards a good deal for the club. If it's a bad deal for the club, don't sign. Of course that will mean some pain. But they have avoided greater pain in the process. It simply negotiations.

From everything he has said and done since the end of the season, what makes you believe this? When it comes time to make things happen EP's camp isn't likely to ask for anything completely outlandish. As Bandwagonesque has pointed out, the general parameters of this deal are pretty established. Benning has shown a pretty clear willingness to create long-term headaches to make things happen this season, and his bosses pretty clearly want him to do this. Why would he suddenly start caring, but not that much now?

 

[iceburg]

From everything he has said and done since the end of the season, what makes you believe this? When it comes time to make things happen EP's camp isn't likely to ask for anything completely outlandish. As Bandwagonesque has pointed out, the general parameters of this deal are pretty established. Benning has shown a pretty clear willingness to create long-term headaches to make things happen this season, and his bosses pretty clearly want him to do this. Why would he suddenly start caring, but not that much now?

This is a completely different point from the leverage question. I do believe Benning has learned a little - but not that much
My expectation is that they'll sign a deal that is more favorable to EP. That is, EP/JP Barry will win the deal. But that's different from JB having no leverage. It's JB not realizing the level of leverage he has.

 

[RobertKron]

This is a completely different point from the leverage question. I do believe Benning has learned a little - but not that much
My expectation is that they'll sign a deal that is more favorable to EP. That is, EP/JP Barry will win the deal. But that's different from JB having no leverage. It's JB not realizing the level of leverage he has.

He basically has no leverage because he's spent the summer thus far making sure everyone knows he's completely unwilling to take advantage of it. He's spent the summer backing himself into the corner on the other side of the room from the levers.

 

[iceburg]

He basically has no leverage because he's spent the summer thus far making sure everyone knows he's completely unwilling to take advantage of it. He's spent the summer backing himself into the corner on the other side of the room from the levers.

As I said in my first post on the subject, there are always options. The is no such thing as no leverage, just degrees of leverage. And more typically people have more leverage than they realize. But the emotional side of negotiations lies about that.
But now we're just repeating our points

 

[Hit the post]

As I said in my first post on the subject, there are always options. The is no such thing as no leverage, just degrees of leverage. And more typically people have more leverage than they realize. But the emotional side of negotiations lies about that.
But now we're just repeating our points

aka 'iceburg's' interpretation of taoism.

 

[bandwagonesque]

I don't disagree with much of this, but this situation is somewhat different in that Benning has just spent the past however many weeks indicating with words, and then showing with actions that he needs the team to make the playoffs this year, and that he's willing to create problems down the road in order to make it happen.

A typical scenario would be the agent asking for whatever, and the team coming back to say that it doesn't fit their budget structure and that they won't make a deal that compromises this. The threat, either implicit or explicit, is that they will let the player sit out and take the short term pain to make sure that they're structuring things the way they want to for the future. Example being like every single time Brian Burke has ever spoken about negotiations ever, and driving people to the airport and whatever other blowhard shit he's always on about. In this situation, though, Benning has basically spent the time since the season ended telling everyone who will listen that he wholeheartedly intends to be the one who blinks.

I understand all these concepts. I'm saying that the effect they will actually have (and historically have had in most other negotiations) is probably minor and that these descriptions of what Benning has supposedly communicated though his behaviour have been exaggerated to the point where they no longer resemble what he actually said or did.

 

[BluesyShoes]

8x$10m is pretty much on point for what Pettersson should get on an 8 year deal. Maybe $9.5m.

Hughes is quite a bit lower given his position, the flaws in his game, and his weaker contractual status.

How do you break it down though? I can't see him getting 10M. He's not worth 10M in any of the seasons he has played, he's not even a PPG player in any of his seasons. I get the hype, but a lot of that is his crazy goal streak in his rookie season and the Calder. Next season, he's worth 7.5M IMO, and I'd say that's fair on a 3 year bridge. How does that AAV climb up to 10M over eight years? He has shown no indication of being worth 12.5M in actual salary, that is McDavid money.

 

[BluesyShoes]

I'd offer Petey 8.75 x 8 and Hughes 7.25x8 or 6.25 on a bridge, they aren't worth any more than that.

 

[rypper]

McDavid signed his deal more then 4 years ago though. The cap will eventually go up and so will salaries. Someone will surpass McDavid's deal eventually. If there wasn't a flat cap it might have already happened.

 

[deckercky]

How do you break it down though? I can't see him getting 10M. He's not worth 10M in any of the seasons he has played, he's not even a PPG player in any of his seasons. I get the hype, but a lot of that is his crazy goal streak in his rookie season and the Calder. Next season, he's worth 7.5M IMO, and I'd say that's fair on a 3 year bridge. How does that AAV climb up to 10M over eight years? He has shown no indication of being worth 12.5M in actual salary, that is McDavid money.

I agree on 3 years at $7.5M. After writing that post, I ran some numbers compared to Barzal and Aho, who are very comparable to Pettersson (Barzal's numbers are slightly behind the other two).

Factoring in his qualifying offer, Barzal is assured $31M over his 4 RFA years ($7.75M average).

Realistically, Pettersson and Aho likely earn$0.25-0.5M extra per RFA year ($32-33M/4), so Aho's UFA year is worth slightly over $10M, but Aho is gambling on a third big contract by taking only 5 years. By taking a shorter contract, Aho likely earns more by signing a third contract at 28.

Running those numbers, I think a fair 8 year contract is probably in the 9.25-9.5M range:

4 RFA years averaging $8M AAV plus 4 UFA years averaging $10.5M = $74M/8 years ($9.25M AAV). The team should be willing to pay a slight premium to get the player to commit to the team through his prime for $9.5M AAV.