Confirmed with Link: [VAN/CAL] Canucks to acquire Lindholm (CAL) for Kuzmenko, Brzustewicz, Jurmo, 1st 2024, & Conditional 4th 2024

[wetcoast]

That's why some of us think he needs to work his way up from AHL or 4th line.

What kind of message does Tocchet send to the team if you just hand this guy a spot on the 1st/2nd line?

You are being sarcastic right?

Lindholm is going to get a top 6 spot and good MPG with excellent players.

 

[strattonius]

It's really easy to commit to saying there will be a regression next year when we are 1st place.

I think it's puzzling to look at this team and not think we will be fighting for 1st in the Pacific the next few years though.

We are having an everything goes right season but that isn't indicating we are a one and done.

 

[wetcoast]

They just cleared 5.5M off the books for next year and have a lot of free agents which gives them even more flexibility this summer. Just guessing who will be on this roster next season, let alone trying to project how they’ll perform is pretty difficult.


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Sure but that means they have 36 million to spend but only 11 players under contract.

They need a backup goalie, 4 Dmen to play with Hughes and Soucy and also need to resign EP.

I think the math works to resign Lindholm but there are a lot of moving pieces and questions still to play out here.

OEL cap penalty is 2.35m. It’s not some boogyman you can scare me with. The two subsequent years are the big ones. Next year is a pretty minor annoyance.

The thing is that the OEL cap hit for those next 2 years will affect the signings next year won't it?

Over 40m and open roster spots throughout the entire line-up. That’s the only thing we know for certain right now.

Also, this isn’t a career year for the last 5 players you listed. It’s also Joshua’s 2nd year in the league and Lafferty was tracking identically last season. You said the same thing about Miller two seasons ago…

sure but as much as things went wrong the last 2 years everything seems to be going right this year it would be prudent to expect a 10 point drop off next year.

Of course I think there will be some regression but where it will come from and what the roster look like? I have no idea.

That makes all of us.

 

[PuckMunchkin]

OEL cap penalty is 2.35m. It’s not some boogyman you can scare me with. The two subsequent years are the big ones. Next year is a pretty minor annoyance.

It is a thing that is getting worse than it was this year. Also the two years after that affect the contracts you are signing next summer if the contracts are longer than 1 year.

Over 40m and open roster spots throughout the entire line-up. That’s the only thing we know for certain right now.

You actually need to sign players there, and UFAs are not an efficient way to build.
Obviously they were able to do it this year with insane level of success. To expect this hit rate to continue is IMO unreasonable.

Also, this isn’t a career year for the last 5 players you listed. It’s also Joshua’s 2nd year in the league and Lafferty was tracking identically last season.

He is LITERALLY doubling his career shooting%.

You said the same thing about Miller two seasons ago…

I have been consistently wrong about Miller.

Of course I think there will be some regression but where it will come from and what the roster look like? I have no idea.

Sorry but... this isn't contributing anything to the conversation.

We all are making our predictions based on the information we currently have. With new information I will do my best to adjust my opinion.

TLDR;

As it currently stands, there are extremely loud statistical signs that we are due to regress. Also our cap situation is about to get a lot more tricky.

Also want to add;
I wont be shocked if our management actually pulls it off. They did incredible work post Kuzmenko extension ( and I feel they did an incredibly job addressing that mistake with the Lindholm trade). Pretty much every single move has been fantastic short & long term.

It's really easy to commit to saying there will be a regression next year when we are 1st place.

I think it's puzzling to look at this team and not think we will be fighting for 1st in the Pacific the next few years though.

We are having an everything goes right season but that isn't indicating we are a one and done.

I think it will be shocking levels of regression to the folk who are more optimistic about our future.

I would expect us to make the playoffs again tho. So I am not predicting one and done.

 

[HairyKneel]

Lots of teams have dead cap space. Be creative and find next years’ Lafferty’s, Joshua’s, Blueger’s, Cole’s etc. They might hit 110- 114 points this season. Next year it might be around a 98- 104 point team. It’s not a real great take to say there could be some regression. Ebbs and flows…. peaks and valleys. This team has all the ingredients to be competing for a cup for 5 to 7 years.

Some folks are so bitter that it seems more important to be right on a message board than for their “favourite” team to enjoy some success.

Enjoy the ride….. or don’t.

 

[Vector]

The thing is that the OEL cap hit for those next 2 years will affect the signings next year won't it?



sure but as much as things went wrong the last 2 years everything seems to be going right this year it would be prudent to expect a 10 point drop off next year.

That makes all of us.

1) Probably not the way you think. They’ll probably limit their long-term contracts to key RFAs and a select few RFAs. Short term contracts, like with Cole, for the rest. Supplement the rest of the roster with ELCs and second-contract types.

2) A five win drop is reasonable but still would put them in the running for a conference spot or, at least, a wild card.

There’s just a lot of roster uncertainty. Doom-and-glooming right now is crazy. Especially when I think everyone expects at least a bit of a regression.

 

[PuckMunchkin]

1) Probably not the way you think. They’ll probably limit their long-term contracts to key RFAs and a select few RFAs. Short term contracts, like with Cole, for the rest. Supplement the rest of the roster with ELCs and second-contract types.

2) A five win drop is reasonable but still would put them in the running for a conference spot or, at least, a wild card.

There’s just a lot of roster uncertainty. Doom-and-glooming right now is crazy. Especially when I think everyone expects at least a bit of a regression.

Im not doom and gloom.

I am all in on them winning this season AND I am perfectly happy to have the current management running the team for a long while.

I'd be shocked if the Canucks weren't worse next year, but it will be because of the last two lines and not at all because of "PDO". The Canucks are generated a boatload of surplus value from the contracts they have. They won't be able to keep all of Lafferty, Joshua, Zadorov, and DeSmith, so the players they sign to fill out the rest of the roster will be crucial.

So you expect us to ice bottom sixers scoring at 20% next year?

 

[HairyKneel]

LOL he ^^^^ is the epitome of doom and gloom.

 

[God]

Im not doom and gloom.

I am all in on them winning this season AND I am perfectly happy to have the current management running the team for a long while.


So you expect us to ice bottom sixers scoring at 20% next year?

I very clearly did not say that.

 

[Vector]

Let’s not stawman, including myself here. We’re also getting very far afield of the thread topic.

 

[PuckMunchkin]

I very clearly did not say that.

Höglander 22,6%
Joshua 20,7%
Lafferty 20%
Suter 20%

This is what is blowing up our PDO.

This is why I brought this up when you said PDO would not be a reason we are likely to decline next year.

Let’s not stawman, including myself here. We’re also getting very far afield of the thread topic.

Sorry. We can continue this in what ever is the appropriate thread.
(I did not intend to strawman anyone and dont think anyone has straw manned me, just to be clear.)

I would say this is related to the current trade because, I find Lindholm as a rental completely justified for a team in our position not only because we are so good this year, but also because there are so many indicators we may not be contenders the next.

 

[Nucker101]

- PDO. I know its a curse word here, but its a real thing.
- Massive raises to key players.
- OEL cap penalty
- Career years for Miller, Boeser, Lafferty, Hughes, Demko, Pettersson, Joshua, Suter, Garland, Zadorov, DeSmith, Myers...

They’ll almost assuredly be a regression, but how much is the question.

 

[PuckMunchkin]

They’ll almost assuredly be a regression, but how much is the question.

It will take more of the wizardry we've seen this season and last summer.

 

[Nucker101]

It will take more of the wizardry we've seen this season and last summer.

For sure, which is asking a lot

 

[Ernie]

This is the dumbest argument. Let's look at some history:

The Canucks are on pace for 118 points and a +102 goal differential.

That goal differential has been topped just once in the modern era: last year by the Bruins, who ended up at +127 and 135 points. Oh, and a PDO of 103.6, so obviously we should take that President's Trophy back.

The next highest goal differential belongs to the Lightning in 2019, at +98 and 128 points. They rocked a PDO of 102, which is still pretty suspicious.

Those are two pretty good teams and they hold the #1 and #2 spots for total points in a season.

Know what else those juggernaut teams have in common? Take a quick guess...

 

[RobertKron]

This is the dumbest argument. Let's look at some history:

The Canucks are on pace for 118 points and a +102 goal differential.

That goal differential has been topped just once in the modern era: last year by the Bruins, who ended up at +127 and 135 points. Oh, and a PDO of 103.6, so obviously we should take that President's Trophy back.

The next highest goal differential belongs to the Lightning in 2019, at +98 and 128 points. They rocked a PDO of 102, which is still pretty suspicious.

Those are two pretty good teams and they hold the #1 and #2 spots for total points in a season.

Know what else those juggernaut teams have in common? Take a quick guess...

Almost Kevin Shattenkirk?

 

[Ernie]

Almost Kevin Shattenkirk?

Both teams hilariously lost in the 1st round - the Lightning got swept and the Bruins blew a 3-1 lead.

Stressing about whether Lafferty is going to shoot 20% next year is not seeing the forest for the trees.

The Lightning "regressed" and didn't win the President's Trophy again but as a consolation prize won back to back Cups and made another Finals appearance in the next 3 seasons.

 

[MS]

- Career years for Miller, Boeser, Lafferty, Hughes, Demko, Pettersson, Joshua, Suter, Garland, Zadorov, DeSmith, Myers...

What on earth?

Garland is literally having the worst season of his career since his rookie year.

Pettersson is having the same season as last year but has looked worse doing it.

Suter is basically hovering around his career numbers.

Lafferty's numbers are pretty much identical to last year.

Zadorov had 14 goals last year and you're calling this his career year?

DeSmith's numbers are below his career averages and his GSAA won't catch the best 2 seasons of his career.

Demko has the best numbers of his career but I'd say that's more a function of the vastly improved team defense and that he was more impressive in 20-21 and 21-22.

 

[bandwagonesque]

The flaw in the "everyone is having a career year" thing is that it's statistically impossible for that to be due largely to chance. If it's rare for players to shoot over 20%, then it's not a random aberration when 5 or 6 guys on the same team are doing it. Sure, there's probably a degree of luck involved and if you ran the season 100 times this would probably be in the top 10 outcomes, but the fact that this consistently good outcome across so many variables seems so unlikely is evidence that it can't be explained by chance, not that it's bound to be explained by chance.

 

[strattonius]

And also yeah a lot of our bottom 6'ers are shooting the lights out; But if they weren't and were only shooting average would that put our goal differential at +25 instead of +55? I doubt even that dramatic since bottom 6'ers aren't shooting volume anyways.

It's obvious that even though our PDO is through the roof, our sh% is absurdly high, and our goaltenders have the best numbers of their career that we are still a very good team. Don't really see the point in discussing how next year we won't have as much luck.

 

[RobertKron]

And also yeah a lot of our bottom 6'ers are shooting the lights out; But if they weren't and were only shooting average would that put our goal differential at +25 instead of +55? I doubt even that dramatic since bottom 6'ers aren't shooting volume anyways.

It's obvious that even though our PDO is through the roof, our sh% is absurdly high, and our goaltenders have the best numbers of their career that we are still a very good team. Don't really see the point in discussing how next year we won't have as much luck.

By vague estimate, if you drop Suter, Hoglander, Lafferty, and Joshua's S% down to 12% the team is still at like +40 or something.

 

[arttk]

There's a handful of posters who expect a big drop off next season. "Nowhere close" to this years results is a quote. @PuckMunchkin

They never thought this was possible in the first place. That’s what happens when one gets too close minded.

Remember when a bunch of guys said all Suter, Bluegad, Soucy, Laf wouldn’t move the needle? Turns out creating one of the best 3rd and 4th line is pretty damn impactful.

 

[AlainVigneaultsGum]

 

[arttk]

And also yeah a lot of our bottom 6'ers are shooting the lights out; But if they weren't and were only shooting average would that put our goal differential at +25 instead of +55? I doubt even that dramatic since bottom 6'ers aren't shooting volume anyways.

It's obvious that even though our PDO is through the roof, our sh% is absurdly high, and our goaltenders have the best numbers of their career that we are still a very good team. Don't really see the point in discussing how next year we won't have as much luck.

We had like 3-4 insane blowout games contributing to like 20ish of that +55. Remove those games and our record would still be pretty much the same.

Edit: 4 games contributed to +25

What on earth?

Garland is literally having the worst season of his career since his rookie year.

Pettersson is having the same season as last year but has looked worse doing it.

Suter is basically hovering around his career numbers.

Lafferty's numbers are pretty much identical to last year.

Zadorov had 14 goals last year and you're calling this his career year?

DeSmith's numbers are below his career averages and his GSAA won't catch the best 2 seasons of his career.

Demko has the best numbers of his career but I'd say that's more a function of the vastly improved team defense and that he was more impressive in 20-21 and 21-22.

What is this? Facts?

 

[AlainVigneaultsGum]

What on earth?

Garland is literally having the worst season of his career since his rookie year.

Pettersson is having the same season as last year but has looked worse doing it.

Suter is basically hovering around his career numbers.

Lafferty's numbers are pretty much identical to last year.

Zadorov had 14 goals last year and you're calling this his career year?

DeSmith's numbers are below his career averages and his GSAA won't catch the best 2 seasons of his career.

Demko has the best numbers of his career but I'd say that's more a function of the vastly improved team defense and that he was more impressive in 20-21 and 21-22.