USMNT Part X - Qatar Bound - Group B (England, Iran, Wales)

Bringer of Jollity

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Think this is a nice balance between having a reasonable challenge and also a chance to move on through group and even beyond, though the drama with England in the group will be off the charts. Hope the boys will be up for it.
 

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Not mentioned either is the path in knockouts is group A which includes Qatar. Even Netherlands as a 16 match would give a reasonable chance to move on.
USA is not beating Netherlands or Senegal. Might have a chance against Ecuador. No excuses against Qatar
 
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willy702

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Think this is a nice balance between having a reasonable challenge and also a chance to move on through group and even beyond, though the drama with England in the group will be off the charts. Hope the boys will be up for it.
Agreed, right perspective. This is an experience building year with these kids getting a good challenge from qualifying and the tournament. So much youth that needs a run through this to prepare for 2026 when the US could conceivably be a top 8 team if the youth pipeline fills up some more to challenge the current generation in spots. Add in home country advantage and who knows what could happen. Staying grounded for now but none of these teams seems daunting so I think this is the best situation possible for continued growth. Plus Berhalter gets his real shot, can he make this squad greater than the sum of its parts? If not we know he's getting replaced with a real world class level coach.
 

willy702

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USA is not beating Netherlands or Senegal. Might have a chance against Ecuador. No excuses against Qatar
Easy to be negative as you always are, but there is a reason why they play the games. No way the chance to advance is zero or even near it. Maybe they are 30% to get by Netherlands, close to 50% Senegal, little above 50% for Ecuador and Qatar. If Qatar makes it they will be a tougher team than anyone is thinking with home advantage.
 

Savant

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Easy to be negative as you always are, but there is a reason why they play the games. No way the chance to advance is zero or even near it. Maybe they are 30% to get by Netherlands, close to 50% Senegal, little above 50% for Ecuador and Qatar. If Qatar makes it they will be a tougher team than anyone is thinking with home advantage.
It’s not negativity. It’s reality. Netherlands are still one of the best teams in the world. Senegal is the best team in Africa and playing at a much higher level that USA. USA does not have anything for either of those teams.

Ecuador can go either way but they tend to find a way to advance. On a neutral field. USA probably beat Qatar but as the home team anything can happen I guess.
 
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Basement Cat

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Egypt just took Senegal to penalties. Egypt isn't better than the USMNT. It is feasibly that the USMNT can advance past Senegal. I'd put it at 60/40 in Senegal's favor.

And yes, you typically are a wet blanket.
 

Bringer of Jollity

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Egypt just took Senegal to penalties. Egypt isn't better than the USMNT. It is feasibly that the USMNT can advance past Senegal. I'd put it at 60/40 in Senegal's favor.

And yes, you typically are a wet blanket.
It's just inconsistent. We have "no excuses" to get out of the group, but we don't really have a chance against the teams we'd face in the knockout round. These are all very comparable teams in rankings and on paper.
 
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Basement Cat

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It's just inconsistent. We have "no excuses" to get out of the group, but we don't really have a chance against the teams we'd face in the knockout round. These are all very comparable teams in rankings and on paper.

That logic 100% feeds the negative nancy viewpoint.
 

Bringer of Jollity

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That logic 100% feeds the negative nancy viewpoint.
It's all bound up in the usual schtick around the current USMNT - We have an amazing, talented roster (because we have a whole bunch of guys in Europe now), MLS and our coach suck, we expect to get through group (because it's a high, but not unrealistic bar to put on GGG), but won't stand a chance beyond that (because our crap coach holds back our talent).

In actual reality, we have a talented, albeit young, inexperienced, inconsistent, and relatively uproven squad and an unproven coach who has had results in "less meaningful" competitions but had some letdowns during qualifying. This tournament is going to be a really good test for us on all fronts. We should expect to be competitive to get through group, we have a reasonable chance of doing so, and if we do that, there's no reason to suspect we're out of our depth in the early knockout round. The occasion might also get to us and we fall flat.
 

Savant

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Egypt just took Senegal to penalties. Egypt isn't better than the USMNT. It is feasibly that the USMNT can advance past Senegal. I'd put it at 60/40 in Senegal's favor.

And yes, you typically are a wet blanket.
Soccer math is not a thing. Also did you watch Egypt vs Senegal?

I don’t care if you think I’m a wet blanket. I’m going to call it like I see it. If anything I am more positive now because USA wasn’t making it out of a tougher group, and now they should at least be able to make is to KO stage, which is a reasonable goal.
 
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Savant

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It's just inconsistent. We have "no excuses" to get out of the group, but we don't really have a chance against the teams we'd face in the knockout round. These are all very comparable teams in rankings and on paper.
Netherlands and Senegal are significantly better than Iran, Scotland, Ukraine and Wales. I don’t think this is rocket science. FIFA rankings are also notoriously terrible.
 

Moncherry

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Senegal is getting incredibly overrated. They're not the powerhouse some are making them out to be.
 

Live in the Now

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Senegal is getting incredibly overrated. They're not the powerhouse some are making them out to be.

They're still significantly better than damn Iran, Wales, Scotland, and Ukraine. The two best players Wales has are washed up and they were in a bad group that they did well to mop up easy points in, but that's about it.
 
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GabeTravels

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I think it's a disappointment if they don't get out of the group.

It's not like 8 years ago when it was Germany, Portugal, and Ghana. I actually thought they did quite well there to get out of the group (and they actually should've won the Portugal game).

This time...I look at these opponents and say they should be getting points from all three, and winning at least 1 of the games.

They aren't easy, but outside of drawing Qatar, I think they got the "worst" Pot 1 team. Iran was a bit of a tough Pot 3 draw, but they're not favorites against the US by any stretch.

The UEFA winner was most disappointing, and the wild card in the group. None of them are pushovers, though I think the US should be favored against Scotland and Ukraine. Wales is definitely the toughest of the bunch, but even then, I'd say the US would be likely to get a point.


It'll come down to the wire as usual. Don't think we'll get the benefit of Germany thumping Portugal this time.
 

Basement Cat

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My early prediction is draw the first match (regardless which Euro it is) and draw against England, with everything on the line in a tricky matchup against Iran. Like a few have said, this group poses a great balance of competition. It’s tough enough where I’ll be impressed with them getting through, but also “meh” enough where I’ll be really disappointed if they don’t. It’s a good test for this young squad.
 

willy702

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It's all bound up in the usual schtick around the current USMNT - We have an amazing, talented roster (because we have a whole bunch of guys in Europe now), MLS and our coach suck, we expect to get through group (because it's a high, but not unrealistic bar to put on GGG), but won't stand a chance beyond that (because our crap coach holds back our talent).

In actual reality, we have a talented, albeit young, inexperienced, inconsistent, and relatively uproven squad and an unproven coach who has had results in "less meaningful" competitions but had some letdowns during qualifying. This tournament is going to be a really good test for us on all fronts. We should expect to be competitive to get through group, we have a reasonable chance of doing so, and if we do that, there's no reason to suspect we're out of our depth in the early knockout round. The occasion might also get to us and we fall flat.
Exactly. I don't get the complaints about the coach either. He's not there to develop the young stars, that's on their club teams. He created a flexible system to handle Mexico and the types of teams seen in Concacaf. That and getting exposure for more young talents to get transfered to Europe is his task Who knows what he comes up with at the WC, it's a whole different situation. If he fails then he's done but it's not as if a more proven foreign coach was going to take the squad 2 or 3 rounds further. If he succeeds in a vastly different situation then maybe we do have a foundational coach going forward.
 

gary69

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By contrast with the mood here I'm not thrilled with the draw. We still have a good shot of advancing. It's not a group of death but it does have probably the most parity of any of the 8 groups assuming Wales wins the playoff as they should. Iran is the best team in the AFC and it's almost a home game for them. Wales has top flight talent in Bale and Ramsey, and England is England. Not saying we can't get results off them, we certainly can, but it's not going to be an easy time for them at all.

I believe of all 8 groups Group B has the best cumulative FIFA Ranking with England at 5, US 15, Iran 21, and Wales 18. Scotland and Ukraine would be fodder but Wales *should* handle either (though watch FIFA rig it for Ukraine because of politics).

Those rankings are partly garbage and in no way reflective of the real current standard of these teams. Obviously any rating that has not one, but two Concacaf teams ahead of recently crowned African champions Senegal, who also got through a difficult qualification, are not telling the truth. So those cumulative rankings are useless in this case.

That said, obviously USA is quite cabable of advancing from this group.
 

Bringer of Jollity

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Exactly. I don't get the complaints about the coach either. He's not there to develop the young stars, that's on their club teams. He created a flexible system to handle Mexico and the types of teams seen in Concacaf. That and getting exposure for more young talents to get transfered to Europe is his task Who knows what he comes up with at the WC, it's a whole different situation. If he fails then he's done but it's not as if a more proven foreign coach was going to take the squad 2 or 3 rounds further. If he succeeds in a vastly different situation then maybe we do have a foundational coach going forward.
Largely stems back to his hiring and nepotism (or "nepotism," depending on your persuasion in this regard) and him being an MLS guy. Tactically, the jury's out for me, but I think he has actually done a great job of bringing in a large number of different players, cycling out a lot of the pieces that didn't really work anymore while bring in a lot of young guys, and also doing a job with the dual nationals. We've seen him make some mistakes, also make some adjustments, and the big test will obviously be in November. I also think there are some misperceptions of what we're going to see as coach of the USMNT. I don't see us NOT hiring an American going forward, and unless the next guy's name is Jesse Marsch, it's probably going to be an MLS guy with no European coaching experience from the annals of US Soccer.
 

willy702

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Largely stems back to his hiring and nepotism (or "nepotism," depending on your persuasion in this regard) and him being an MLS guy. Tactically, the jury's out for me, but I think he has actually done a great job of bringing in a large number of different players, cycling out a lot of the pieces that didn't really work anymore while bring in a lot of young guys, and also doing a job with the dual nationals. We've seen him make some mistakes, also make some adjustments, and the big test will obviously be in November. I also think there are some misperceptions of what we're going to see as coach of the USMNT. I don't see us NOT hiring an American going forward, and unless the next guy's name is Jesse Marsch, it's probably going to be an MLS guy with no European coaching experience from the annals of US Soccer.
Sad but true. I could see the case to get a real star coach for 2026 with where the team will be and having the pressure to deliver then. But I do note how many USMNT guys got showcased for transfer and I understood that was a big part of the focus in recent years. I don't know if Dike or Pepi are out of MLS yet if not for this. I can also see why Acosta is pissed he could not get to Europe either. If this cycle gets Ferreira a European deal then it's mostly mission accomplished. Only 2-3 older MLS guys should be around and let's hope they keep it that way.
 

Savant

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Senegal is getting incredibly overrated. They're not the powerhouse some are making them out to be.
Overrated compared to what exactly? Powerhouse compared to whom? All I’m saying that they are the best team in Africa and they are outright better than USA. I stand by both of those things.
 

DanielPlainview

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Any chance they’d try Reyna up top? Something like:

6904D44A-A909-4ECA-A343-FC2D8BE87C48.jpeg
 

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