Prospect Info: Under 25 y/o Sens Players Ranking #14 - Tie Breaker

[Xspyrit]

Let's have a bit of fun and change our minds since most of our best players got sold. Let's rank the young guys that have a chance to stick around through this "rebuild". Let's vote by who we think end up the best "when all is said and done". All factors have to be taken into account (skill, skating, hockey sense, potential, certainty, leadership, physicality, etc)

Ask yourself this question :

Who among this pool of players would I draft BPA? It's basically an organizational RE-DRAFT of all players under 25 y/o. Who are our most important assets, in order?


Under 25 y/o Sens Players Ranking

1- Thomas Chabot (D) 91.7%
2- Brady Tkachuk (LW) 37.3%
3- Erik Brännström (D) 70.8%
4- Drake Batherson (RW) 70.8%
5- Colin White (C/RW) 48.1 %
6- Logan Brown (C) 67.4%
7- Christian Wolanin (D) 61.2% (Tie-Breaker)
8- Jacob Bernard-Docker (D) 40.6%
9- Josh Norris (C) 34.1%
10- Alex Formenton (LW) 28.8%
11- Rudolfs Balcers (LW) 56.2% (Tie-Breaker)
12- Anthony Duclair (LW/RW) 33.3%
13- Christian Jaros (D) 53.3% (Tie-Breaker)
14-

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[stempniaksen]

Poor Tierney

 

[FolignoQuantumLeap]

Please stop voting for Tierney. What the hell.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Kiss this Tierney

 

[Six Assets]

Hogberg is carrying belleville to the playoffs, yet people still vote for tierney lmao

 

[swiftwin]

This is a joke. Tierney has to be in the top 10. Tierney has 48 points in the NHL, while also having the 2nd most PK minutes of any forward on the team, and we're voting in a bunch of nobodies.

 

[stempniaksen]

Hogberg is carrying belleville to the playoffs, yet people still vote for tierney lmao

Hogberg is like 4 months younger than Tierney. I know development isn't linear and goalies take longer, but we're really gonna vote the guy with 4 NHL games under his belt over the guy with 360+ games and 150+ points? Seems kinda nuts to me.

Potential is great, actual results are better.

 

[Six Assets]

Hogberg is like 4 months younger than Tierney. I know development isn't linear and goalies take longer, but we're really gonna vote the guy with 4 NHL games under his belt over the guy with 360+ games and 150+ points? Seems kinda nuts to me.

Potential is great, actual results are better.

So by your logic, Tierney should be ranked #1...

 

[swiftwin]

So by your logic, Tierney should be ranked #1...

I would put him #6 personally.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

This is a joke. Tierney has to be in the top 10. Tierney has 48 points in the NHL, while also having the 2nd most PK minutes of any forward on the team, and we're voting in a bunch of nobodies.

That settles it for me... Hogberg it is..... This is a about projection. I project Tierney has reached the top of his hill.. which is mediocre, while I chose to project Hogberg into a #1 G that wins games on his own... see how that works . Can you imagine Hogberg being a more valuable and important player than Tierney down the road? Y/N ? I say Y. Its the same with any of these rankings .. its not about this moment , its about what you project the player to be.

 

[stempniaksen]

So by your logic, Tierney should be ranked #1...

That's an oversimplification.

Hogberg was litteraly splitting time between the ECHL and AHL this time last year. He was a complete afterthought in the organization.

There are guys with very high upsides with relatively high floors that can and should surpass Tierney on the depth chart relatively soon. I'm really not convinced that half a season in the AHL of good play should move Hogberg this far up the list.

 

[DrakeAndJosh]

Can we just get Tierney out of the way please

 

[swiftwin]

That settles it for me... Hogberg it is..... This is a about projection. I project Tierney has reached the top of his hill.. which is mediocre, while I chose to project Hogberg into a #1 G that wins games on his own... see how that works . Can you imagine Hogberg being a more valuable and important player than Tierney down the road? Y/N ? I say Y. Its the same with any of these rankings .. its not about this moment , its about what you project the player to be.

Goalies are different. Goalies are more of a pass/fail thing, and you're looking at the probability of them becoming an NHLer as opposed to trying to project the potential of a skater.

For example, does Hogberg have the potential to become a starter? Absolutely. Will he become a starter? Less than 50% chance. There's no such thing as a sure bet when it comes to goalies.

Besides, even Tierney is at the top of his hill (which is hard to believe considering this is a career year for him, and he's only 24), it's still better than the potential of these guys:
7- Christian Wolanin (D) 61.2% (Tie-Breaker)
8- Jacob Bernard-Docker (D) 40.6%
9- Josh Norris (C) 34.1%
10- Alex Formenton (LW) 28.8%
11- Rudolfs Balcers (LW) 56.2% (Tie-Breaker)

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Goalies are different. Goalies are more of a pass/fail thing, and you're looking at the probability of them becoming an NHLer as opposed to trying to project the potential of a skater.

For example, does Hogberg have the potential to become a starter? Absolutely. Will he become a starter? Less than 50% chance. There's no such thing as a sure bet when it comes to goalies.

Besides, even Tierney is at the top of his hill (which is hard to believe considering this is a career year for him, and he's only 24), it's still better than the potential of these guys:
7- Christian Wolanin (D) 61.2% (Tie-Breaker)
8- Jacob Bernard-Docker (D) 40.6%
9- Josh Norris (C) 34.1%
10- Alex Formenton (LW) 28.8%
11- Rudolfs Balcers (LW) 56.2% (Tie-Breaker)

See you are making my decision to go with Hogberg even more solid... Keep up the hot takes though..

 

[Six Assets]

That's an oversimplification.

Hogberg was litteraly splitting time between the ECHL and AHL this time last year. He was a complete afterthought in the organization.

There are guys with very high upsides with relatively high floors that can and should surpass Tierney on the depth chart relatively soon. I'm really not convinced that half a season in the AHL of good play should move Hogberg this far up the list.

not sure how a handful of ECHL games for hogberg means anything other than how badly belleville was managed last year.

 

[stempniaksen]

not sure how a handful of ECHL games for hogberg means anything other than how badly belleville was managed last year.

Tough to say how much the dysfunction in Belleville affected him. His AHL numbers didn't look great though (which again, could be a product of his environment).

It's just strange, because the argument against Tierney in these threads as typically been that he's "peaked", and yet somehow someone 4 months younger than him with (much) less of a track record is considered to have so much more potential. I could see the argument for a guy like Gus, who at least has 4 years of development time to catch up to Tierney, but the Hogberg love seems misplaced to me.

I've voted for Tierney for the last like 3 rounds though, so grain of salt.

 

[FolignoQuantumLeap]

Tierney is bad. He has maxed out as a player and we're unlikely to get the kind of production we got from him this year again. His production pretty much kept falling over the course of the year (hot October and January), which makes sense because of how many weaknesses are in his game.

Bad shooter, bad skater, bad defender. Not valuable to many teams unless you have the luxury of having a sheltered offensive 3rd line and choose to deploy your good players against top competition.

He'd be nice on a ELC but that's about where his value would lie. I'd say he's pretty much the embodiment of a replacement level player. Maybe worse.

Hogberg looks like he's ready to start games in the NHL. That's so much more valuable than a 3rd/4th line tweener. Then there's room for Hogberg to grow into a starter.

Its kind of like comparing Nilsson and Boedker. Sometimea Useful vs completely useless.

 

[Xspyrit]

This is a joke. Tierney has to be in the top 10. Tierney has 48 points in the NHL, while also having the 2nd most PK minutes of any forward on the team, and we're voting in a bunch of nobodies.

Have you read my posts in the last threads? Tierney had a career season, it was very contextual. The best comparison I made was thinking that Zack Smith was a 25 goals scorer because he did it in 2015-16

If, when all is said and done, he is Top-10 on that list, this rebuild would have been a TOTAL DISASTER. Might as well just rebuild all over once again. Keep only vets and trade every young player (even Chabot, Tkachuk, etc) for 2020 and future picks.

If that is the case (Tirnery top-10), Dorion would have been putrid at drafting and trading Bryan Murray's stars (Karlsson, Hoffman, Stone, Turris, Dzingel, Zibanejad, etc)

I mean, you trade all these players and can't have 10 young players better than Chris freaking Tierney? That'd be goddamn pathetic and would also be the nail in the coffin for my exodus.


EDIT : Also, the way your word your comment at the end shows that you really don't get the question... The question was NOT "please name players that are the most proven in the NHL". I mean, it's really not the purpose of this exercise. You don't need to make several polls to figure that out

Really no idea why some still don't get it.

 

[Xspyrit]

So by your logic, Tierney should be ranked #1...

GOOD QUESTION.

So people with that logic have to explain why did Brannstrom, Batherson, Brown, JBD, Norris, Formenton, Balcers, Jaros and even Wolanin all got voted in before Tierney?

Going by that "logic", it should be :

1- Chabot
2- Tkachuk
3- White
4- Duclair
5- Jaros
6- Tierney
etc

(which would be freaking pathetic for a rebuild, like worse than the Oilers, if it's even possible)

I would put him #6 personally.

Did you read the OP or you really think that Tierney is going to end the 6th best player on that list?

And you call Dorion a genius? Gosh, that's one of the most ridiculous things I have ever seen on HF

Dorion traded all these players since he arrived and Chris Tierney is the 6th best player he ends up with?

Zibanejad, Turris/Duchene, Hoffman, Karlsson, Dzingel, Stone

OUCH.

Besides, even Tierney is at the top of his hill (which is hard to believe considering this is a career year for him, and he's only 24), it's still better than the potential of these guys:
7- Christian Wolanin (D) 61.2% (Tie-Breaker)
8- Jacob Bernard-Docker (D) 40.6%
9- Josh Norris (C) 34.1%
10- Alex Formenton (LW) 28.8%
11- Rudolfs Balcers (LW) 56.2% (Tie-Breaker)

Wolanin has more skill in his little toe than Chris Tierney in all his body. Skates better, shots better, a lot more offensive flair, just quicker in general. The only only only thing that keeps Tierney in the NHL is good hockey sense. His tools are average at best.

If almost every player highlighted here don't end up better than Tierney, Sens fans have to be really worried about the future and are in for darkness for another good 5 years.

That's an oversimplification.

Hogberg was litteraly splitting time between the ECHL and AHL this time last year. He was a complete afterthought in the organization.

There are guys with very high upsides with relatively high floors that can and should surpass Tierney on the depth chart relatively soon. I'm really not convinced that half a season in the AHL of good play should move Hogberg this far up the list.

I actually voted Tierney here because I'm not sold on Hogberg yet. I have him as a decent backup like Nilsson. Also, it's impossible to compare skaters and goalies (saying that because of your other comment), I have entirely stopped doing that a few years ago. With time, I realized that you just can't have them in the same discussion. It's almost like a different sport.

 

[swiftwin]

Have you read my posts in the last threads? Tierney had a career season, it was very contextual. The best comparison I made was thinking that Zack Smith was a 25 goals scorer because he did it in 2015-16

If, when all is said and done, he is Top-10 on that list, this rebuild would have been a TOTAL DISASTER. Might as well just rebuild all over once again. Keep only vets and trade every young player (even Chabot, Tkachuk, etc) for 2020 and future picks.

If that is the case (Tirnery top-10), Dorion would have been putrid at drafting and trading Bryan Murray's stars (Karlsson, Hoffman, Stone, Turris, Dzingel, Zibanejad, etc)

I mean, you trade all these players and can't have 10 young players better than Chris freaking Tierney? That'd be goddamn pathetic and would also be the nail in the coffin for my exodus.


EDIT : Also, the way your word your comment at the end shows that you really don't get the question... The question was NOT "please name players that are the most proven in the NHL". I mean, it's really not the purpose of this exercise. You don't need to make several polls to figure that out

Really no idea why some still don't get it.

I think you're going to be disappointed if you believe we have 10 top-6/top-4 U25 players in our system right now. Tierney is already a top-6 forward.

"A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush"

 

[Xspyrit]

I think you're going to be disappointed if you believe we have 10 top-6/top-4 U25 players in our system right now. Tierney is already a top-6 forward.

"A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush"

OK. I see where the problem is

Who in their right mind (a NHL team) will play Chris Tierney in their top-6 outside of last place teams like the Sens this year?

And if we don't have 10 top-6/top-4 U25 players in our system right now after trading Zibanejad, Turris/Duchene, Hoffman, Karlsson, Dzingel, Stone, then the pundits are right : Dorion is really the worst manager of all time (after Milbury I guess)

And Chabot, Brown, White, Wolanin, Jaros, Hogberg, Daccord and Chlapik were drafted under Murray, so all that Dorion would have amassed in 3 years and several MAJOR trades would be :

Tkachuk (because his team finished 2nd last)
Brannstrom (traded 26 y/o Mark Stone to get him)
Batherson (at least still good at drafting)
JBD (at least still good at drafting)
Norris (traded 27 y/o Erik Karlsson to get him)
Formenton (at least still good at drafting)

and don't know who else acquired by Dorion you value? Tierney I guess

 

[swiftwin]

OK. I see where the problem is

Who in their right mind (a NHL team) will play Chris Tierney in their top-6 outside of last place teams like the Sens this year?

And if we don't have 10 top-6/top-4 U25 players in our system right now after trading Zibanejad, Turris/Duchene, Hoffman, Karlsson, Dzingel, Stone, then the pundits are right : Dorion is really the worst manager of all time (after Milbury I guess)

And Chabot, Brown, White, Wolanin, Jaros, Hogberg, Daccord and Chlapik were drafted under Murray, so all that Dorion would have amassed in 3 years and several MAJOR trades would be :

Tkachuk (because his team finished 2nd last)
Brannstrom (traded 26 y/o Mark Stone to get him)
Batherson (at least still good at drafting)
JBD (at least still good at drafting)
Norris (traded 27 y/o Erik Karlsson to get him)
Formenton (at least still good at drafting)

and don't know who else acquired by Dorion you value? Tierney I guess

You really don't get it, do you?

I believe all these players have the potential to be better than Tierney.

However, all these players' (except for Tkachuk/Chabot/White) probability of becoming at least as good at Tierney is lower than Tierney's (Because Tierney's probability of being as good as Tierney is 100%).

Honestly though, if Formenton became a 48pt player while being a team leader in PK minutes, I'd be very happy. That would be better than Carl Hagelin, which IMO is a good comparable for Formenton.

As is typical around here, you're massively overrating our B and C level prospects.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

You really don't get it, do you?

I believe all these players have the potential to be better than Tierney.

However, all these players' (except for Tkachuk/Chabot/White) probability of becoming at least as good at Tierney is lower than Tierney's (Because Tierney's probability of being as good as Tierney is 100%).

Honestly though, if Formenton became a 48pt player while being a team leader in PK minutes, I'd be very happy. That would be better than Carl Hagelin, which IMO is a good comparable for Formenton.

As is typical around here, you're massively overrating our B and C level prospects.

And as is typical around here .. you stand alone on an island, where you are right and everyone else is wrong.

 

[Xspyrit]

You really don't get it, do you?

I believe all these players have the potential to be better than Tierney.

However, all these players' (except for Tkachuk/Chabot/White) probability of becoming at least as good at Tierney is lower than Tierney's (Because Tierney's probability of being as good as Tierney is 100%).

Honestly though, if Formenton became a 48pt player while being a team leader in PK minutes, I'd be very happy. That would be better than Carl Hagelin, which IMO is a good comparable for Formenton.

As is typical around here, you're massively overrating our B and C level prospects.

No, I'm just looking at Tierney for what he is and that is NOT a top-6 forward (like you said). No other team in their right mind will play him as a top-6 forward, unless they want to finish last.

And you clearly didn't read other threads, this has been discussed ad nauseam. It's about TAKING POSITION, which of these players will end up better than Tierney? Even Batherson and Brannstrom are not 100% guaranteed, but yet they still got voted at the top because people took position and are confident they will end up better than Tierney. If you don't believe anybody else will, then sure, you can vote Tierney. But it's the same for ALL prospects, except "blue chippers" no one is guaranteed of anything.

Finally, what are your thoughts on Dorion's work if you believe only 5 will end up better than Tierney? 3 of them were acquired in the Murray era (Chabot, Brown, White), another (Brannstrom) acquired in a trade for a Murray player (Stone) and the last one (Tkachuk) acquired 4th OA because Dorion destroyed Murray's team

So who's your top-5 in front of Tierney (since you said he'd be 6th)??? I'm assuming it's the 5 guys named above.

I mean, Dorion traded Zibanejad, Turris/Duchene, Hoffman, Karlsson, Dzingel, Stone and all he has to show better than Tierney is Erik Brannstrom? That's freaking terrible. I have been very critical of Dorion but certainly not as harsh as many on this board, but you're kind of directing me to that extreme.

EDIT : I'm not a gambler at all but I'd gladly bet that at least 10 guys in the system end up having a better career than Chris Tierney

Chabot, Tkachuk and White are a given
Brannstrom, Batherson and Wolanin very very likely
Brown, JBD and Norris should too, rather easily

That's 9 guys already. Then Formenton, Jaros, Balcers, Duclair, Chlapik, Abramov and several other guys have a chance, some have a good chance.

 

[coladin]

Tierney needs to work on his conditioning/work ethic. Not my kind of player and I think he faded badly due to possibly playing more than he is used to. I am expecting him to be much better next season. He has some good attributes but watching him I found a lot of times lack of consistent effort