Still not getting it, are you?
First of all, 48 points is #107 among forwards league-wide. That averages out to 4th best forward on a team. That's absolutely top 6 numbers. Is he a fantastic 2nd line player? Probably not, but he absolutely is an average 2nd line player. That's roughly the same amount of points as guys like Backlund (2nd line for Calgary), Tyler Johnson, Brandon Saad, Eric Staal, Brendan Gallagher, etc. "Oh, well he only got those points because he was on a **** team", you say? Well, no. He was also 4th in points among forwards on San Jose last season too. Again, well within top 6 numbers. To claim otherwise is a flagrant lie in order to twist the truth to fit your narrative.
Second of all, it's simply not fully probability versus potential. It's a combination of both. Yes Batherson and Brannstron are not a 100% guarantee to be better than Tierney, but they are pretty darn close to it, and absolutely should be ranked higher than Tierney. But someone like Abramov has the potential to be better than Tierney, but the probably is so low that Tierney absolutely should be well ahead of Abramov in this ranking.
Seriously, if we end up with 10+ players who are above 4th best scoring forward on the team (or defenseman equivalent), not including the guys we draft in the next two seasons with all the extra picks we got, it would be the greatest rebuild in all of sports history, and we'd have a 4+ cup dynasty on our hands.
edit: for the record, my ranking would be:
1. Chabot
2. Tkachuk
3. Batherson
4. Brannstrom
5. White
6. Tierney
7. Duclair
8. Wolanin
9. Jaros
10. Formenton
Sorry, late response but was super busy. What am I not getting? That Tierney is a top-6 forward and it's a fact? That's where we completely disagree, sorry if "I'm not getting that" by not adopting your opinion...
I know what 48 pts are, and he did well this season, particularly in the first 1/3 of the season but like I have been saying many times, it is
contextual. Any team giving top-6 minutes and opportunity to Chris Tierney will be in serious trouble and looking at a basement finish...
Backlund is not the greatest offensive player, but he is a beast defensively and a strong possession player. He brings a lot more to the table than Tierney, and is also a much better skater. Anybody would take Backlund over Tierney without even thinking and the Flames surely wouldn't make the swap unless they were really really tight with the cap. I also take all of Gallagher (30 goal scorer and a pest to play against), Staal (was a high end talent, way more impactful), Johnson, etc before him without hesitating.
I never ever said that "he only got those points because he was on a **** team". Are you sure it's me that is not "getting it"? I said it was contextual. A basement team,
particularly one that sold his 5 best players in the same season, will be forced to play many guys out of their depth. I think anybody can see that. Some guys will then get an opportunity they wouldn't otherwise. I mean, it's pretty logic
Anyway, it doesn't seem like you will change your way of thinking here but you will see soon enough that Chris Tierney can't be in the same conversation as those guys you named.
The Sharks had a massive forward depth problem last year. That's why they acquired Evander Kane. They only had Pavelski and Couture as clear cut top-6 forwards and an aging Thornton who only played 47 games (but had 36 Pts). Hertl was on the verge of breaking out and Meier was a pure rookie. Before they acquired Kane, Tierney was 5th in TOI/GP but only had a 0.49 PPG. I mean, it's decent but not top-6 level.
In terms of production, he was 8th in PPG or 7th if you don't include Kane's small sample size... Boedker and Labanc had better production and he was almost tied with Donskoi. I mean, are those guys top-6 players? No, they're all tweeners. Will produce low 2nd line numbers if given the opportunity but ideally on your 3rd line. But one thing important to not, most likely outmatched if playing against the other teams top lines (like that was the case for Tierney in Ottawa and as soon as Stone and Duchene were traded, Tierney really struggled)
http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?rep...8&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,1&sort=pointsPerGame
I'm really not "lying in order to twist the truth to fit your narrative", I'm telling you things exactly like they are.
If you want to believe Tierney is a top-6 forward, ok fine, but I really don't agree and it doesn't make me a liar.
Second of all, I never said that it's "simply probability versus potential", never ever once again. But I cannot explain everything in every post, because writing posts here takes some time and time is very precious. If you want to see my explanations, go make a research. This has been addressed multiple times.
And this is also a reason why I have Tierney above guys like Abramov and Hogberg (check my vote in this poll), they're too much of a question mark right now, even if the ability is there. Chlapik joined the same boat for me, he had a good start to this season but faded down the stretch.
But I absolutely have Brown (that you forgot in your list, unless you think he's a straight up bust), Norris, JBD and Wolanin becoming better NHL players than Chris Tierney.
For Duclair it was harder but he might have finally turned the corner with some maturity growth. He has so much more talent than Tierney. For Balcers and Formenton it's closer but I think they will because of speed, shot and skill, notably. Tierney is poor skater and has a muffin of a shot. Very good hockey sense and decent playmaking abilities, possibly the only 2 things that keeps him in the NHL. So Tierney is a good benchmark to evaluate players because he is the average of the average. lol
I'm saying that those 9 guys : Chabot, Tkachuk, Batherson, Brannstrom, Brown, White, Wolanin, JBD and Norris will all have better NHL careers than Tierney.
That is my position and I certainly have the balls to take that position. Worse case scenario, I was wrong who f***ing cares?
I extend on saying that I'm at least half confident that Duclair, Balcers, Jaros and Formenton will end up better. Could be others as well but I'm not making that claim right now.
Finally, as I have already said, it shouldn't be surprising to have 10 players better than Tierney. Chabot, Brown and White were already in the pool, Tkachuk just got drafted because Dorion's team sucked last year plus he got a steal in the draft in Batherson. That's already 5 guys and he traded in the recent past all of Erik Karlsson, Matt Duchene, Derick Brassard (formerly for Zibanejad), Ryan Dzingel, Mike Hoffman and Mark Stone. I mean, I hope there's good young players in the system lol
If it wasn't the case, Dorion would be an even bigger failure as a GM as this board is already painting. If Tierney is the best piece in the Karlsson deal, I would drive myself to Ottawa to kick him in the nuts.