If the goal is highest potential, fine. But if likelyhood of reaching that potential is important, imo Tierney is ahead of all those guys (maybe not Duclair, he's really starting to win me over). At the draft table, likelihood of reaching potential is always a huge factor. Otherwise you'd see very different draft orders.
The goal is to balance both potential and likelihood of reaching it. That's what BPA means, it's not just highest potential. There are tons of bust or boom players that go late in drafts, well after safer lower potential guys are long gone. And imo, when you put Tierney head to head with everyone left on the list, he wins that battle. Somebody out of them will probably beat the odds and become a better player than him, but I'm not picking one at random to slot ahead of him, and they certainly won't all pass him, rather the majority likely will never reach where he is now.
But that's the thing : never project a prospect based on mostly one factor. It takes several factors into account to properly evaluate what you have in a young player. I don't see why "likelihood of reaching potential" is a "huge factor". It's certainly a factor but far from being the only one when you take everything in consideration. I am currently looking for an equation that pro scouts usally use but I can tell you right away that they're looking at all this stuff :
- Skating : speed, acceleration, lateral mobility, a quick first step and balance, elusiveness
- Shooting : shot arsenal, accuracy, velocity, release, finish ability
- Quickness : ability to play at a high pace and make quick smart decisions
- Puckhandling : pure skill at handling the puck
- Poise : calmness, reaction when pressured, able to create space for himself, puck control in traffic, discipline, etc
- Hockey sense : decision making, vision, 3D space intelligence, anticipation
- Development curve : players like Batherson and Karlsson went through an exceptional development curve, that's why they were taken lower in the draft, people didn't expect them to become that good.
- Likelihood of reaching potential : safer vs boom/bust potential
- Competitiveness : is the guy a gamer or not? Some guys dropped a lot in drafts because of that
- Physical attributes : size, strength, body build, athleticism ability to protect the puck, intimidation factor?
- Leadership, set the example, attitude, other intangibles
- 200 feet play, small details, defensive awareness
- many more I haven't listed
I mean, there's a ton of things to consider when evaluating a hockey player. Of course, if a player has a very low likelihood of reaching potential, then he will be passed on, but we are not talking about longshot prospects here. That's why Miles Gendron isn't close to be in the poll options depite being a much much better skater than Chris Tierney. But guys like Duclair and Balcers already play in the NHL and you can see why they will be better than Tierney. I find to be a very average NHL player but luckily he has good hockey sense. If not, he would be a 4th liner/depth player. I can't think of one thing he does above average.
Conclusion, there's NO likelihood of reaching potential with Tirney because he already reached it, so of course it's easy to "project him" because wysiwyg, but the goal here is to have the balls to evaluate other players and project them vs their "likelihood of reaching potential".
If you vote Tierney, it's because you are convinced that no one else (that you rated higher in ability) will somewhat reach his potential and end up better, which would be terrible and means the Sens are in the bottom for several more years.
Anyway, a few good reads :
Draft Theory: On Risk and Reward - NHL Numbers
http://www.hockeyeasternontario.ca/docs/HP1_Player_Evaluation.pdf
The Art of Scouting