Prospect Info: Under 25 y/o Sens Players Ranking #11

[The Worst One]

I agree .. he has shown sporadic nice moves with the puck but his overall effectiveness is meh. I would not hesitate parceling him in a trade to get a piece we need.

I completely disagree. Talk about hot take of the year. Balcers can and will develop into solid top 6 winger. He just has to get stronger and be more assertive with the puck. He is only 21 and surely will get better.

 

[Mark Stones Spleen]

Voted Balcers.

He's going to be a good one, but he should still be in the AHL playing big minutes and regular PP shifts.

 

[TkachukNorris79]

I still see so much of Hoffman in Balcers... Going with him.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

I think Wolanin is overrated. He is closer in age as Duclair/Tierney than the 18-20 year old kids and way further along his development curve. I hope I am wrong but his curve is closer to Widenan's.

I think he's already better than Wideman. He's just getting started at the NHL level.

 

[Sensmileletsgo]

Tierney will likely go on to have a better NHL career then almost all the players left, and some of the players picked before him. He is the safe pick, but not the exciting one.

 

[Sensmileletsgo]

I think Wolanin is overrated. He is closer in age as Duclair/Tierney than the 18-20 year old kids and way further along his development curve. I hope I am wrong but his curve is closer to Widenan's.

He is older and further along in his development but based on his small sample size I think he will likely be a better player then anyone remaining. I am very high on Wolanin though and haven’t watched enough of our prospects to give a proper assessment.

 

[Micklebot]

I think Wolanin is overrated. He is closer in age as Duclair/Tierney than the 18-20 year old kids and way further along his development curve. I hope I am wrong but his curve is closer to Widenan's.

Wideman was 25 and a half before he cracked an NHL roster, Wolanin turned 24 10 days ago, and is in 25 games is only 6 pts back of the career high Wideman took 76 games to reach.

Wolanin is a far superior skater to Wideman, and has better size. Their AHL production is pretty similar, in both cases it is very good, but as noted, Wolanin doesn't have the red flags that Wideman did which commonly limits players potential for transitioning that production over to the NHL level.

I've got much higher hopes for Wolanin than Wideman, or a guy like Wiercioch. The biggest hurdle for Wolanin is going to be the defensive side of course, but he's also going to have to fight for icetime with Chabot and Brannstrom which could limit his impact here.

 

[Xspyrit]

Tierney will likely go on to have a better NHL career then almost all the players left, and some of the players picked before him. He is the safe pick, but not the exciting one.

Better NHL career than most because they won't all reach their potential but it's weird how Tierney is overrated on this board. I mean, usually players get bashed or adulated here, there's no in between.

But the reality is that he is NOT a top-6 forward, the way Pageau is not a top-6 forward but is capable of producing 2nd line numbers when given the opportunity (remember Pageau 43 pts season when he played with Stone half a season?). They're both ideally 3rd line centers, except that Tierney is not a defensive specialist like Pageau, but he is a bit better offensively. In the end, IMO, Tierney has to be traded while his value is at his peak, because many youngsters will show that they have more offensive ability in the near future. IMO, it's useless to keep both Tierney and Pageau (who is not even 2 years older)

In summary, I doubt that all of Balcers, Abramov, Duclair, Veronneau, Chlapik, Crookshank, Davidsson fail to become better than Tierney. I know it's hard to predict which will succeed but I'm voting a few of them before Tierney, at least Balcers and Duclair, Abramov too.

Then you also have Jaros and some goalies who have an outside chance. Some might consider Lajoie too.

 

[Icelevel]

People like this balcers guy eh?

 

[SpezDispenser]

Jaros. I can never get one of these polls to go the way I vote lol. I might as well abstain.

 

[Micklebot]

In summary, I doubt that all of Balcers, Abramov, Duclair, Veronneau, Chlapik, Crookshank, Davidsson fail to become better than Tierney. I know it's hard to predict which will succeed but I'm voting a few of them before Tierney, at least Balcers and Duclair, Abramov too.

I have little doubt that one of these guys will probably surpass Tierney eventually, the issue is that when you try to set the odds one at a time, Tierney pretty much always comes ahead. It's like when you set the odds for the SC winner before the season starts; the field as a whole always had better odds than the cup favourite, but doesn't mean you should rank somebody in the field ahead of the cup favourite, if that makes any sense.

 

[Xspyrit]

I have little doubt that one of these guys will probably surpass Tierney eventually, the issue is that when you try to set the odds one at a time, Tierney pretty much always comes ahead. It's like when you set the odds for the SC winner before the season starts; the field as a whole always had better odds than the cup favourite, but doesn't mean you should rank somebody in the field ahead of the cup favourite, if that makes any sense.

But obviously, the goal of this exercise, like when Pronman or other experts make their prospect lists, is to project as best as possible to determine who is going to end up the best player.

When teams make their pick at the draft table, sometimes they go for the "safer pick" (to get at least an average player) but most of the time they go BPA and try to hit a homerun.

The goal here is to go BPA.

Is Tierney the best player available? Doubt it. Yes he is farther in his development than everyone else, but in terms of overall ability, I don't think he is the best at all. Sure, a guy like Duclair, who has more ability in his left foot, might not end up better than Tierney but it won't be because of skill/talent.

Tierney is actually probably at his peak already and I would bet quite a lot that this season will be his best offensively. IMO, he is a good 3rd liner, not a top-6 forward and I have said it since he was acquired, a Pageau-level player.

In the 2013 prospects rankings, Pageau was voted before Stone, Hoffman and Dzingel. We have a tendency on this board to go with the conservatory safer pick.

 

[Micklebot]

But obviously, the goal of this exercise, like when Pronman or other experts make their prospect lists, is to project as best as possible to determine who is going to end up the best player.

When teams make their pick at the draft table, sometimes they go for the "safer pick" (to get at least an average player) but most of the time they go BPA and try to hit a homerun.

The goal here is to go BPA.

Is Tierney the best player available? Doubt it. Yes he is farther in his development than everyone else, but in terms of overall ability, I don't think he is the best at all. Sure, a guy like Duclair, who has more ability in his left foot, might not end up better than Tierney but it won't be because of skill/talent.

Tierney is actually probably at his peak already and I would bet quite a lot that this season will be his best offensively.

If the goal is highest potential, fine. But if likelyhood of reaching that potential is important, imo Tierney is ahead of all those guys (maybe not Duclair, he's really starting to win me over). At the draft table, likelihood of reaching potential is always a huge factor. Otherwise you'd see very different draft orders.

The goal is to balance both potential and likelihood of reaching it. That's what BPA means, it's not just highest potential. There are tons of bust or boom players that go late in drafts, well after safer lower potential guys are long gone. And imo, when you put Tierney head to head with everyone left on the list, he wins that battle. Somebody out of them will probably beat the odds and become a better player than him, but I'm not picking one at random to slot ahead of him, and they certainly won't all pass him, rather the majority likely will never reach where he is now.

 

[topshelf15]

Jaros should be here,a developing two way RHD .....Is a very important asset for this team

 

[Xspyrit]

If the goal is highest potential, fine. But if likelyhood of reaching that potential is important, imo Tierney is ahead of all those guys (maybe not Duclair, he's really starting to win me over). At the draft table, likelihood of reaching potential is always a huge factor. Otherwise you'd see very different draft orders.

The goal is to balance both potential and likelihood of reaching it. That's what BPA means, it's not just highest potential. There are tons of bust or boom players that go late in drafts, well after safer lower potential guys are long gone. And imo, when you put Tierney head to head with everyone left on the list, he wins that battle. Somebody out of them will probably beat the odds and become a better player than him, but I'm not picking one at random to slot ahead of him, and they certainly won't all pass him, rather the majority likely will never reach where he is now.

But that's the thing : never project a prospect based on mostly one factor. It takes several factors into account to properly evaluate what you have in a young player. I don't see why "likelihood of reaching potential" is a "huge factor". It's certainly a factor but far from being the only one when you take everything in consideration. I am currently looking for an equation that pro scouts usally use but I can tell you right away that they're looking at all this stuff :

- Skating : speed, acceleration, lateral mobility, a quick first step and balance, elusiveness
- Shooting : shot arsenal, accuracy, velocity, release, finish ability
- Quickness : ability to play at a high pace and make quick smart decisions
- Puckhandling : pure skill at handling the puck
- Poise : calmness, reaction when pressured, able to create space for himself, puck control in traffic, discipline, etc
- Hockey sense : decision making, vision, 3D space intelligence, anticipation
- Development curve : players like Batherson and Karlsson went through an exceptional development curve, that's why they were taken lower in the draft, people didn't expect them to become that good.
- Likelihood of reaching potential : safer vs boom/bust potential
- Competitiveness : is the guy a gamer or not? Some guys dropped a lot in drafts because of that
- Physical attributes : size, strength, body build, athleticism ability to protect the puck, intimidation factor?
- Leadership, set the example, attitude, other intangibles
- 200 feet play, small details, defensive awareness
- many more I haven't listed

I mean, there's a ton of things to consider when evaluating a hockey player. Of course, if a player has a very low likelihood of reaching potential, then he will be passed on, but we are not talking about longshot prospects here. That's why Miles Gendron isn't close to be in the poll options depite being a much much better skater than Chris Tierney. But guys like Duclair and Balcers already play in the NHL and you can see why they will be better than Tierney. I find to be a very average NHL player but luckily he has good hockey sense. If not, he would be a 4th liner/depth player. I can't think of one thing he does above average.

Conclusion, there's NO likelihood of reaching potential with Tirney because he already reached it, so of course it's easy to "project him" because wysiwyg, but the goal here is to have the balls to evaluate other players and project them vs their "likelihood of reaching potential". If you vote Tierney, it's because you are convinced that no one else (that you rated higher in ability) will somewhat reach his potential and end up better, which would be terrible and means the Sens are in the bottom for several more years.

Anyway, a few good reads :

Draft Theory: On Risk and Reward - NHL Numbers
http://www.hockeyeasternontario.ca/docs/HP1_Player_Evaluation.pdf
The Art of Scouting

 

[Mark Stones Spleen]

If the goal is highest potential, fine. But if likelyhood of reaching that potential is important, imo Tierney is ahead of all those guys (maybe not Duclair, he's really starting to win me over). At the draft table, likelihood of reaching potential is always a huge factor. Otherwise you'd see very different draft orders.

The goal is to balance both potential and likelihood of reaching it. That's what BPA means, it's not just highest potential. There are tons of bust or boom players that go late in drafts, well after safer lower potential guys are long gone. And imo, when you put Tierney head to head with everyone left on the list, he wins that battle. Somebody out of them will probably beat the odds and become a better player than him, but I'm not picking one at random to slot ahead of him, and they certainly won't all pass him, rather the majority likely will never reach where he is now.

Totally fair points. I just feel if that's the logic for Tierney, then he should be ahead of Norris/Formenton/JBD as well then.

 

[Micklebot]

Totally fair points. I just feel if that's the logic for Tierney, then he should be ahead of Norris/Formenton/JBD as well then.

To me the difference is rhose guys have much higher floors than the remaining prospects and higher ceilings than guys like Balcers who are in the big show.

Its all pretty subjective, tjere is no right answer

 

[Xspyrit]

Totally fair points. I just feel if that's the logic for Tierney, then he should be ahead of Norris/Formenton/JBD as well then.

Exactly, even Batherson, Brown and Branstrom while we're at it.

If the "proven factor" is that much important that it trumps everything else, the ranking should be more something like that :

1- Chabot
2- Tkachuk
3- White
4- Tierney
5- Wolanin
6- Duclair
7- Balcers
8- Jaros
9- Lajoie
10- Batherson
11- Chlapik
12- Formenton
13- Brown
14- Veronneau
15- Paul
16- Hogberg
17- Brannstrom
18- Abramov


That being said, yes it's true that Balcers doesn't have the same "shine" as those guys (Batherson, Branstrom, Norris, JBD...) but I think the problem with the whole Tierney debate is that he is overrated because he's pacing 50 pts this year. On pretty much every other team or in a different situation, he's a ~30-40 pts guy, aka a good 3rd liner.