I think Poirier is the deserved favorite, but this is still a fight. A lot has been made of the calf kicks in the second fight, but I think just as important was the takedown. Conor got right up, but he still ended up having to clinch for like 3 minutes. That takes a little bit of pop off his punches and who knows, maybe that was enough to just flash Poirier instead of knocking him down or out when Conor did catch him. So this fight is basically the same as the last one to me. Poirier needs to survive early and drag Conor into deep water. Anything he can do to weigh on Conor is going to help in that. I don't think Conor can survive 5 rounds with Poirier, so this one is probably going to end by KO one way or another. I think and hope Poirier gets it done again.
I like Wonderboy in the co-main. Burns obviously has a massive advantage on the ground, but Wonderboy has only been taken down 7 times in his career and 5 of those were in 1 fight 9 years ago in his second UFC fight. Burns has a handful of sub wins, but given his BJJ pedigree, it's not all that many. Maybe he just fell in love with the KO, but I think part of it is just he doesn't have the takedowns to get it on the ground. So a weak wrestling game combined with great TDD from Wonderboy and I think this fight will stay on the feet. Burns has power, but he's just not technical enough to face a guy like Wonderboy.
The other main card fights are probably going to be shitty one way or another. The prelims are pretty good, though. Price-Pereira has fireworks written all over it. Would have been a good shot of energy leading into the main and co-main. I can't believe Condit has bounced back from a 5-fight losing streak. The layoff may have helped and taking a step back in competition certainly has helped, but still. I thought he was cooked. I don't know the guy Hall is fighting, but Luke Thomas is really high on him, so I'm looking forward to that one, too.