UFC 244: Diaz vs Masvidal

[m9]

I don't know that it is USADA itself, but the whole situation is absolutely slimy. They aren't coming up with the picogram/pulsing effect for anyone but Jon Jones. Brock Lesnar hasn't been off steroids since he was in JR High School, but he was able to compete at UFC 200. I know you know all the examples, so I'll stop there, but if you make enough money for the UFC, they will bend the science to fit whatever story to let you fight. Like you said, if you're a prelim fighter, though, they (UFC/USADA/athletic commissions/whoever) don't give a **** and you're suspended for 2+ years. Changing the rules and punishments based on how much money you bring in is the definition of being slimy.

Sure, though as your last sentence described it's not the science that they are bending it's simply the application of the rule. I agree there is a science issue too, but that issue is that they don't really know what causes certain things to come up since there isn't enough data so in some cases (like the Jones pulsing thing) they are just taking their best guess.

It is been going around for a bit now that the UFC knows they screwed this up and are working to bump up the threshold so that most of these potential cases will simply not come up anymore. For example if the threshold for being flagged positive was .01, maybe now it will be .1 and that will eliminate most of the tainted supplements or "pinch of salt in a swimming pool" cases. The problem is that they're a sport that has built themselves on being clean and busting people and it's hard to admit that you went too far and now you have to walk it back.

 

[pistolpete11]

Sure, though as your last sentence described it's not the science that they are bending it's simply the application of the rule. I agree there is a science issue too, but that issue is that they don't really know what causes certain things to come up since there isn't enough data so in some cases (like the Jones pulsing thing) they are just taking their best guess.

It is been going around for a bit now that the UFC knows they screwed this up and are working to bump up the threshold so that most of these potential cases will simply not come up anymore. For example if the threshold for being flagged positive was .01, maybe now it will be .1 and that will eliminate most of the tainted supplements or "pinch of salt in a swimming pool" cases. The problem is that they're a sport that has built themselves on being clean and busting people and it's hard to admit that you went too far and now you have to walk it back.

The pulsing thing is bending science to me. That is not a widely accepted theory and far from being a fact, but they used it as a fact to allow Jones to fight. Not that I care, because even if Jones did re-ingest the turinabol, it wasn't enough to be giving him an advantage.

I don't understand how it is this hard to change the thresholds. They have plenty of data of UFC fighters alone that they have proven had tainted supplements let alone every other sport that USADA deals with. Set the threshold above that. Done. I wouldn't even make it public that the thresholds changed. Just stop suspending guys.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

If Nate doesn't fight you may as well either cancel the card or turn it into a free card because Gastelum VS Till is not in any way a PPV caliber main event.

You can't put 2 fighters that combined have lost their last 3 fights and make that a PPV main event

 

[pistolpete11]

If Nate doesn't fight you may as well either cancel the card or turn it into a free card because Gastelum VS Till is not in any way a PPV caliber main event.

You can't put 2 fighters that combined have lost their last 3 fights and make that a PPV main event

It would still be a good card IMO, but yeah, nothing even close to resembling a main event if Nate's not there.

 

[m9]

The only solution to save the card?

Interim BMF title fight.

 

[member 51464]

I am interested to see if Till has shown any improvement. Going up a class and getting knocked out again wouldn't bode well.

 

[Jasper]

I don't know why they would've shot down Leon Edwards if the main fight's not happening? Perfectly acceptable replacement. Making weight would be the only issue I could see unless Masvidal wouldn't take it but I doubt he'd turn it down.

 

[Avs_19]

Excellent news. Now we just have to hope Diaz still shows up.

 

[pistolpete11]

I don't know why they would've shot down Leon Edwards if the main fight's not happening? Perfectly acceptable replacement. Making weight would be the only issue I could see unless Masvidal wouldn't take it but I doubt he'd turn it down.

Yeah, I think weight would be the issue. He's a big dude for the division. He said he offered to be ready when the fight was made, but the UFC declined. Not sure why. The only thing I could think is if he's the replacement for Usman-Covington and the UFC was more confident that Nate-Masvidal would both show up compared to Usman-Covington.

Luckily, it's looking like it won't matter and we are going to get the fight we really want.

 

[pistolpete11]

I give up on trying to understand the fight order for UFC 244. Now, on the Askren-Maia broadcast, they have Lee-Gregor as the first fight on the main card. I guess we'll see as it happens.

 

[m9]

I give up on trying to understand the fight order for UFC 244. Now, on the Askren-Maia broadcast, they have Lee-Gregor as the first fight on the main card. I guess we'll see as it happens.

They usually always follow what they show on TV as they advertise based on that, so I'd be surprised if Walker/Anderson isn't the featured prelim.

 

[Sheppy]

I hope Gregor dummies Lee.

 

[pistolpete11]

Anyone have any predictions?

Diaz-Masvidal - really a toss up for me. Masvidal has the power advantage, but Nate's got a chin. Nate has the ground advantage, but probably won't use it. Might come down to how Masvidal handles Nate's pressure. It's more of a hope, but I'll go with Nate by decision, but wouldn't be disappointed with a Masvidal win either.

Gastelum-Till - I got Gastelum by KO. I think he's a better boxer and has a better chin.

Wonderboy-Luque - It's too big of a jump up in competition, I think. Wonderboy's 1-3-1 in his last 5, but those are against top of the food chain type of guys. With all due respect, Wonderboy ain't Mike Perry. I'll go with Wonderboy via decision.

Lewis-Ivanov - Again, I think it's a pretty big step up in competition against one of the best who happens to have lost a few in a row. Lewis by KO.

Lee-Gregor - Once again, another step up in competition against a guy that has lost a few in a row. Just to remain intellectually consistent, I'll go with Lee, but I don't feel confident in that and I'll be rooting for Gregor.

Anderson-Walker - I imagine Anderson will try to use his wrestling, but I think Walker is just too dangerous. Walker by KO.

 

[m9]

Anyone have any predictions?

Diaz-Masvidal - really a toss up for me. Masvidal has the power advantage, but Nate's got a chin. Nate has the ground advantage, but probably won't use it. Might come down to how Masvidal handles Nate's pressure. It's more of a hope, but I'll go with Nate by decision, but wouldn't be disappointed with a Masvidal win either.

Gastelum-Till - I got Gastelum by KO. I think he's a better boxer and has a better chin.

Wonderboy-Luque - It's too big of a jump up in competition, I think. Wonderboy's 1-3-1 in his last 5, but those are against top of the food chain type of guys. With all due respect, Wonderboy ain't Mike Perry. I'll go with Wonderboy via decision.

Lewis-Ivanov - Again, I think it's a pretty big step up in competition against one of the best who happens to have lost a few in a row. Lewis by KO.

Lee-Gregor - Once again, another step up in competition against a guy that has lost a few in a row. Just to remain intellectually consistent, I'll go with Lee, but I don't feel confident in that and I'll be rooting for Gregor.

Anderson-Walker - I imagine Anderson will try to use his wrestling, but I think Walker is just too dangerous. Walker by KO.

Hard to argue with anything here.

I think Diaz/Masvidal is a complete toss-up in the cage, so I'll go with Diaz for out-of-cage reasons. He's fought in main events on massive cards before and while Masvidal is a veteran he's probably never had to go through all of this extra press/responsibilities like he has these last few weeks. You see it in sports all the time where a team "is just happy to be there" and since I really have nothing else to go on, I'll give Diaz the split decision based on that. I fully expect a 48-47 split decision either way.

Agreed on Gastelum/Till & Lewis/Ivanov.

Wonderboy/Luque is extremely interesting to me. Luque is 10-2 in the UFC including 10-1 in his last 11 fights, and his only loss in that streak is to Leon Edwards who is an elite guy in the division. He didn't look anything special on TUF and even lost his first fight in the UFC before going on his roll. The reason I am going with Wonderboy is that I just think Luque is a great matchup for him. Luque is ultra-tough but he gets hit and that's the worst trait to have vs Wonderboy.

I think Gregor is legit and I'll take him to win by submission. If he can't take Lee down though, look out as I think Lee wins this fight if it stays on the feet.

I'm not entirely sold on Johnny Walker yet, but I like this matchup for him.

 

[pistolpete11]

Hard to argue with anything here.

I think Diaz/Masvidal is a complete toss-up in the cage, so I'll go with Diaz for out-of-cage reasons. He's fought in main events on massive cards before and while Masvidal is a veteran he's probably never had to go through all of this extra press/responsibilities like he has these last few weeks. You see it in sports all the time where a team "is just happy to be there" and since I really have nothing else to go on, I'll give Diaz the split decision based on that. I fully expect a 48-47 split decision either way.

Agreed on Gastelum/Till & Lewis/Ivanov.

Wonderboy/Luque is extremely interesting to me. Luque is 10-2 in the UFC including 10-1 in his last 11 fights, and his only loss in that streak is to Leon Edwards who is an elite guy in the division. He didn't look anything special on TUF and even lost his first fight in the UFC before going on his roll. The reason I am going with Wonderboy is that I just think Luque is a great matchup for him. Luque is ultra-tough but he gets hit and that's the worst trait to have vs Wonderboy.

I think Gregor is legit and I'll take him to win by submission. If he can't take Lee down though, look out as I think Lee wins this fight if it stays on the feet.

I'm not entirely sold on Johnny Walker yet, but I like this matchup for him.

Good point about Masvidal not really being in the spotlight like this before. Although, Nate never really was before Conor and it worked out OK for him. If I had to bet, I'd bet it doesn't effect Masvidal, but you're right. It's an unknown with him and not with Nate.

With Luque, there's certainly no shame in losing to Edwards and 10-1 in the UFC is still 10-1, but he hasn't beat anyone near as good as Wonderboy. A split decision over Perry, an absolute war with Barberena, etc. just don't give me any type of confidence that he can beat a former title challenger like Wonderboy. Although, Wonderboy is coming off his first KO loss. You never know how that's going to effect a guy. Especially at 36.

My gut says Gregor is going to win, too, but with how bad I am at picking fights, I thought I'd use consistent logic. So I'm sticking with Lee.

 

[I am not exposed]

My predictions in bold:

Diaz-Masvidal - I actually think Masvidal takes this easily.

Gastelum-Till

Wonderboy-Luque

Lewis-Ivanov

Lee-Gregor

Anderson-Walker

 

[Avs_19]

I'm bit of a Diaz homer so that could be playing a role but I'm picking Nate to get it done. I think his main issue when going up against a bigger/stronger fighter is going to be with grappling more so than dealing with the power from punches. Masvidal's wrestling is a little underrated but I'm not expecting him to go that route so Nate should be able to fight his fight. I'll go with a decision win.

I was already picking Gastelum because I think he's a better all around fighter and now I read that Till had visa issues and isn't even getting into NY until tomorrow so that makes me like Gastelum's chances even more.

I'll go Luque, Lewis, and Lee in the other main card fights.

I like Walker as well but I'll be surprised and very impressed if he makes it look as easy as his previous fights. Anderson can be a tough style match up for a lot of people, including Walker. I think he's pretty legit already but beating Anderson would really reinforce that.

I've seen a couple people in the media mention how there maybe should've been more on this card because it's MSG but I think it's great. It goes at least six deep in terms of fights with pretty high level fighters and then there are interesting prospects like Shahbazyan and Dawodu on the prelims as well.

 

[Deen]

Diaz-Masvidal

Gastelum-Till

Wonderboy-Luque

Lewis-Ivanov

Lee-Gregor

Anderson-Walker

 

[m9]

He's extremely raw, but Jairzinho Rozenstruik is another interesting prospect on this card. He has extremely heavy hands but will be in tough vs a savvy vet like Arlovski.

 

[pistolpete11]

I'm bit of a Diaz homer so that could be playing a role but I'm picking Nate to get it done. I think his main issue when going up against a bigger/stronger fighter is going to be with grappling more so than dealing with the power from punches. Masvidal's wrestling is a little underrated but I'm not expecting him to go that route so Nate should be able to fight his fight. I'll go with a decision win.

I was already picking Gastelum because I think he's a better all around fighter and now I read that Till had visa issues and isn't even getting into NY until tomorrow so that makes me like Gastelum's chances even more.

I'll go Luque, Lewis, and Lee in the other main card fights.

I like Walker as well but I'll be surprised and very impressed if he makes it look as easy as his previous fights. Anderson can be a tough style match up for a lot of people, including Walker. I think he's pretty legit already but beating Anderson would really reinforce that.

I've seen a couple people in the media mention how there maybe should've been more on this card because it's MSG but I think it's great. It goes at least six deep in terms of fights with pretty high level fighters and then there are interesting prospects like Shahbazyan and Dawodu on the prelims as well.

Those people are idiots

It would have been severely lacking a main event if Nate fell through, but as long as that fight happens, it's a great card. Still worth watching even if Nate did fall through.

I'm curious why you're picking Luque (or anyone is really)? He's obviously a tough dude and his fights are super fun, but a split decision win against Perry to beating Wonderboy just seems like a massive leap. I just have a hard imagining anything other than Wonderboy piecing him up. As @m9 said, he gets hit a lot and he hasn't faced a striker like Wonderboy yet. That's not a good combination. If Wonderboy loses, it might be the end of the road for him. Doesn't seem like the kind of guy to keep on fighting just to fight. Wouldn't be the first time I was wrong, but I dunno.

Interesting about Till. That sucks.

I agree about Walker. I think it's going to be a tougher fight for him. He's probably going to get taken down or at least pushed up against the cage a bunch, but if he can fight through that, he's the real deal. Honestly, it might be the best thing for him to have a tough fight. He ain't going into the cage and KOing Jones in the first round. You don't want the first time you're in deep water against that guy.

 

[Avs_19]

Those people are idiots

It would have been severely lacking a main event if Nate fell through, but as long as that fight happens, it's a great card. Still worth watching even if Nate did fall through.

I'm curious why you're picking Luque (or anyone is really)? He's obviously a tough dude and his fights are super fun, but a split decision win against Perry to beating Wonderboy just seems like a massive leap. I just have a hard imagining anything other than Wonderboy piecing him up. As @m9 said, he gets hit a lot and he hasn't faced a striker like Wonderboy yet. That's not a good combination. If Wonderboy loses, it might be the end of the road for him. Doesn't seem like the kind of guy to keep on fighting just to fight. Wouldn't be the first time I was wrong, but I dunno.

Interesting about Till. That sucks.

I agree about Walker. I think it's going to be a tougher fight for him. He's probably going to get taken down or at least pushed up against the cage a bunch, but if he can fight through that, he's the real deal. Honestly, it might be the best thing for him to have a tough fight. He ain't going into the cage and KOing Jones in the first round. You don't want the first time you're in deep water against that guy.

Honestly, Wonderboy/Luque is almost a pick em so I'm taking the younger, more aggressive, and more active Luque but there are also a few things that make me hesitant to pick Wonderboy. He's almost 37, coming off of his first KO loss, has only fought twice in the last two years, and doesn't have a reach advantage in this fight. While Luque does get hit quite a bit, Wonderboy isn't always an aggressive striker. I'll add this though, while Wonderboy did get KO'd pretty badly, he was winning that fight up to that point so it's not like he looked terrible against Pettis. I'm just going the other way with this fight though.

 

[pistolpete11]

Honestly, Wonderboy/Luque is almost a pick em so I'm taking the younger, more aggressive, and more active Luque but there are also a few things that make me hesitant to pick Wonderboy. He's almost 37, coming off of his first KO loss, has only fought twice in the last two years, and doesn't have a reach advantage in this fight. While Luque does get hit quite a bit, Wonderboy isn't always an aggressive striker. I'll add this though, while Wonderboy did get KO'd pretty badly, he was winning that fight up to that point so it's not like he looked terrible against Pettis. I'm just going the other way with this fight though.

I don't think being aggressive is the recipe for success against Wonderboy. If he goes rushing in, that's playing right into Wonderboy's hands.

Wonderboy is also used to fighting only a couple times a year. After getting KO'ed, 7 months off is probably better for him, too.

He might not have the reach advantage on paper, but the way he fights, I think he will effectively have the reach advantage.

I do wonder about coming off his first KO after fighting for so many years (including kick boxing). It's definitely a question, but guys do come back from it and he's taken plenty of time.

I guess we'll see.

 

[m9]

I saw Masvidal is quite a big favorite now. Has anyone seen a good style breakdown to explain why? I don't really get it.

 

[Suxnet]

It's a bit of a tossup for me, but I think I'll go with Masvidal with the UD.

 

[darko]

I saw Masvidal is quite a big favorite now. Has anyone seen a good style breakdown to explain why? I don't really get it.

I think Diaz will beat him.