Value of: UFA John Carlson. Does he walk or Caps will lock him up?

[THE Green Man]

If I'm reading this right you're saying the Caps would have to pay more than anyone else in the league to sign JC? Why?

It's the same contract, players can only get the 8th year if they are resigning with a team- UFA's can only get a max 7 year deal.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Offseason - Armchair-GM - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Looks like I just created a cap compliant team

You did, but the problem is, if you suffer one injury you are COMPLETELY f***ed.

 

[hockeykicker]

You did, but the problem is, if you suffer one injury you are COMPLETELY ****ed.

We were without matt niskanen for over a month. They were fine

 

[GordieHoweHatTrick]

Incredible how some of these pending ufa's know how to peak at the right moment.

Suddenly van Riemsdyk keeps scoring goals as well.

A team's Stanley Cup window opens when most of its players are pending UFAs and closes once they're signed.

 

[ON3M4N]

I think Boston could be a wild card for Carlson. Boston could have around $20 million in cap space with no major holes to fill (outside of re-signing Chara) and the cap going up. The window for Boston to win with guys like Chara, Bergeron, Rask, Krejci and some other vets is shrinking, so maybe Sweeney tries to add Carlson and shop Carlo in a package for Chara's replacement.

After seeing how negotiations went with Pasta though, I doubt Boston offers the money that Carlson wants.

 

[CamPopplestone]

He will extend with Washington, but he should go to the market. Even if he just goes back to Washington July 1, he should see the offers. Under 30, right hand shot D whose great offensively and transitions the puck out of his zone well? There would be a bidding war. Players like that just don't hit the market

 

[hb12xchamps]

You did, but the problem is, if you suffer one injury you are COMPLETELY ****ed.

It was a 5 minute attempt at building a roster. Like I said in posts after that, I'm sure a front office could create a much better roster with a lot more time spent negotiating contracts and what not. Plus, this roster has Orpik being bought out and he ultimately could be moved. I also gave some guys more of a higher end cap hit in their deals (Kempny, Boyd, Bowey, etc.) and all could sign for less to create some breathing room.

 

[Melkor]

6 yrs, $40M or 7yrs $45M is a real value of Carlson as a playing unit. Sure, they'll need to add a bit for a bunch of years when hes been underpaid but overall no way that cap hit should go over 7. No way. Who pays that team enough attention the last 6-7 years, those know for sure - if its above 7, that contract is worse than Oshies. I'd even say if its 8-8,5 for 6-7 years it hits Lucic/Ryan territory.

 

[72hockey guy]

Lol, how dare you use his own argument to crush his logic

Except Its Not. it assumes no callups and no injuries. Which doesnt happen. All youve proven is you dont know hockey. Or understand how the cap works.

 

[HenriquesJawLine]

Caps should re-sign him but if the Devils sign him a right side of Carlson, Vatanen, Severson looks really good.

 

[hb12xchamps]

Except Its Not. it assumes no callups and no injuries. Which doesnt happen. All youve proven is you dont know hockey. Or understand how the cap works.

Just give it a rest. You clearly have your stance and most Caps fans clearly have a different stance. We get it, you’re the master of hockey operations and knower of all. So, which front office do you work for?

 

[trick9]

I think they give him 8M in a heartbeat. They better hope his camp agrees to sign that low, because there will be teams willing to pay more.

MacLellan just recently said that they'll do whatever they can to keep him, but if he wants to test the open market and gets 8m AAV offer from elsewhere, there is nothing they can do about.

That to me screams that they aren't willing to give him a blank check. Propably not near that 8 figure we keep hearing. He's a great low-end 1C that can log a ton of minutes if the rest of your D is terrible, but he's really only had 2 seasons where he has ever been close to being worth that number. It's not worth it to go above 7 AAV, assuming he wants full term.

Sucks if the Capitals lose him, sure. Maybe even the current window is over. I'll rather take that than hamper the next window with his new 8-year contract. They already did that huge mistake with Oshie but they might get away with that if they got compliance buy-out, but they aren't going to get another for John Carlson.

 

[Hockey down under]

He's -11 on a team that is +60 overall. He has the worst corsi on the team among regulars. He can't skate and he's become a very expensive pylon. why pray tell would anyone give up a pick for that, retained or otherwise?

The Caps can't afford to lose Carlson. They have 107k in cap space with Carlson, Kempny, Wilson and Grubauer to sign. Their expiring contracts counting Carlson are about 10 million

I see you've gone to another Capitals thread to start a new pissing match.

It's already been pointed out to you in the other thread that the Capitals are not +60 this year. It's also been pointed out to you what a stupid stat plus minus is.

One could easily look at Backstroms -4 and then Stephensons +13 and assume Stephenson is the better center. It's just a horrible stat that the league should stop keeping track of.

Btw, Capitals can keep Carlson at 8 million and remain cap compliant. You've had someone write it up and put it in front of you and you still seem incapable of understanding that.

He's even done it at the very lowest amount the cap is expected to rise to. The cap is going anywhere from 78-82 million next year. Heaven forbid the cap only goes up to 78, the Capitals can make a trade for cap space.

 

[peterthegreat12]

As a Caps fan, I don't really want him back because we are going to over pay him.

He points up big points but for a d-man at that price, his actual ability to play defense is highly questionable.

 

[Filthy Dangles]

Question for cap fans.

Besides @ 5v4, is Carlson even a better defenseman than Matt Niskanen?

Niskanen is a stud and underrated imo.

 

[jaric1862]

To all caps fans, i have a question that im curious about. Does Carlson seem like a player who would have a steep decline when he's 32-35? Is he a good skater?

 

[angry pirate]

Carlson being the highest paid at any point is hilarious.

It's the nature of sports contracts. I think Kirk Cousins is the highest paid QB in the NFL not because he's the best, but because of the timing that he went to Free Agency. Carlson will be the same. Especially if there is larger than usual growth with the salary cap. Inflation and Market Growth.

here it comes I proved you were wrong and now you try and trash the isles, good luck with your 22 man roster dodo, anyone with half a brain will tell you, youre crazy

you countered nothing other than you wont give Carlson what he wants and that you think a roster can go shorthanded all season and not have even a single injury

i'll leave it to others to explain why youre clueless

You're the one that is completely out to lunch on this one. The Caps aren't going to sacrifice Carlson so that they can resign Tom Wilson or Kempny. If they need room, they'll trade Wilson. But they probably don't even need room. Cap by all reports is going to 80 Million next year. Wilson at 3 Million, and Carlson at 8x8 give the Caps 5 Million to sign 5 players. Will they be tight? Yes. But they only have like 15k in free space this year and they are fine. And that's without trading/buying out Orpik.

Injuries don't matter really, if it's short term they'll go to one of their extra skaters on their roster, and if it's longer term they'll put somebody on the IR and be allowed to exceed the cap. In all liklihood the Caps retain Carlson easily if they so choose. The biggest issue with low cap will be buying at the deadline.

 

[Rabid Ranger]

As a Caps fan, I don't really want him back because we are going to over pay him.

He points up big points but for a d-man at that price, his actual ability to play defense is highly questionable.

It seems like no one wants to sign anyone that is productive.

 

[peterthegreat12]

It seems like no one wants to sign anyone that is productive.

Love the productivity but playing on a PP with Ovechkin/Backstrom/Kuznetsov helps pad his stats. At the heart of it though, don't want to pay 8 million for a d-man who isn't above average in his own zone.

 

[trick9]

Love the productivity but playing on a PP with Ovechkin/Backstrom/Kuznetsov helps pad his stats. At the heart of it though, don't want to pay 8 million for a d-man who isn't above average in his own zone.

He's solid in his own end. Not Doughty-like but a guy you can trust out there against anyone with a solid partner. Better defensively than some of the guys people call #1D's.

My reason for not wanting that contract is that he's not this good every season. PP helps him this season but he doesn't need that be productive. He led all D's in ESP few years back when he wasn't on the 1st PP unit. If you sign him for 8 years he'll propably give you few seasons where he is worth that, but he's also going to have some bad years where he is worth nowhere near that. With that kind of term you are locked for long time and i don't see a scenario where you can get rid of that without buying him out, if he struggles. On top of that you'll never know how he is going to decline over time. He's never been a great skater and has been pretty durable throughout his career but you'll never know. 8 years for him after this season is a massive gamble, and i can't see it paying off. Maybe if the salary was somewhere between 6-7 AAV, but not above 7, and certainly not for 8.

 

[Kalost]

Would love him on the Oilers, but he s most likely staying with the caps

 

[Pyrophorus]

The Leafs should definitely, do more than kick tires on him

 

[Iceman]

It's the nature of sports contracts. I think Kirk Cousins is the highest paid QB in the NFL not because he's the best, but because of the timing that he went to Free Agency. Carlson will be the same. Especially if there is larger than usual growth with the salary cap. Inflation and Market Growth.

...but that means he has to be in the vicinity to begin with. I'm probably more pro-Carlson than most of this board but I still don't think he should be close to that salary.

 

[Filthy Dangles]

Poll added.

 

[lifelonghockeyfan]

I really don't see there are many: 1. Teams that could offer real big money 2, Teams/cities that Carlson wants to play live. Gotta think Carlson would prefer to stay on a competitive team like Washington. If not there is spot for him in New Jersey and maybe even Isles, If he's looking at seven deal max, does it really matter if he accept 6.75 or 8.0m. He should go where he thinks he will be happy.