Speculation: UFA Contract projections from fans vs projections from experts (data)

[The Nuge]

I would have expected less than 7.5 with flat cap but more than he signed for. This may be an agent who has read the tea leaves based on last season and with the flat cap didn't see a pre-Covid market for wingers (even good ones) any time soon. If RNH is happy I'm happy for him.

Ya I was expecting more like 6-6.5 with the flat cap. Just 7.5 is a better number to use when looking at pre Covid contracts

 

[RebuildinVan]

What I do know is Phillip Danault is going to be wildly overpaid this summer

 

[My3Sons]

Ya I was expecting more like 6-6.5 with the flat cap. Just 7.5 is a better number to use when looking at pre Covid contracts

I'm guessing a number of second tier wings have gotten an initial lukewarm reception when discussing contracts for the upcoming season. I know that Palmieri wanted to stay in NJ but they could not find common ground. He's not a great player but as a steady 25-30 goal guy with some grit he can play on at least a second line for most teams. Pre-Covid I'm sure he would command a long contract at maybe 6 mil. Now, it will be interesting to see and if RNH signed ahead of that curve he was smart. He's an underrated player in the shadow of McDavid and Drai. At some point you figure EDM will get it together and RNH will be part of the solution. Props for a guy who wants to do that and props for signing a reasonable contract rather than holding up his team.

 

[The Nuge]

I'm guessing a number of second tier wings have gotten an initial lukewarm reception when discussing contracts for the upcoming season. I know that Palmieri wanted to stay in NJ but they could not find common ground. He's not a great player but as a steady 25-30 goal guy with some grit he can play on at least a second line for most teams. Pre-Covid I'm sure he would command a long contract at maybe 6 mil. Now, it will be interesting to see and if RNH signed ahead of that curve he was smart. He's an underrated player in the shadow of McDavid and Drai. At some point you figure EDM will get it together and RNH will be part of the solution. Props for a guy who wants to do that and props for signing a reasonable contract rather than holding up his team.

It’s certainly going to be very interesting to find out. Nuge was likely going to get a little more than the top 6 wingers on the market because he’s a natural center (he can center the second line if we pair up McDrai or if one of them is hurt) and a good PKer. Kind of like how Danault is being speculated at some really high numbers, compared to the similar wingers. But ya, Palmieri/Hall/Saad/etc might be awfully disappointed by the market. It’s the same reason why I’m decently optimistic Barrie ends up back in Edmonton

 

[My3Sons]

It’s certainly going to be very interesting to find out. Nuge was likely going to get a little more than the top 6 wingers on the market because he’s a natural center (he can center the second line if we pair up McDrai or if one of them is hurt) and a good PKer. Kind of like how Danault is being speculated at some really high numbers, compared to the similar wingers. But ya, Palmieri/Hall/Saad/etc might be awfully disappointed by the market. It’s the same reason why I’m decently optimistic Barrie ends up back in Edmonton

That's an excellent point about RNH playing center. Again, he's likely underrated by most folks who don't watch him regularly. If he played in a major hub city he'd get more appreciation.

 

[McSuper]

No, but how many 8 year deals have there been after those were set as the maximum term and how many have been near that average annual value? To me this looks like a disconnect between the term and the dollars. Usually I’d expect an 8 year term to be a big money contract like Stamkos or Stone or someone of that stature.

Not really . The NHL change the rules because of the 10 to 12 year deals . RNH wanted 6x6 and the Oilers have many needs so they wanted to get that down . They gave RNH what he wanted but got 2 extra years for 2.5 per to bring the cap down . Basically the same things team did with those 12 year deals . Give extra years to bring down the cap

 

[NYR94]

Teams will offer more years but a lower AAV

 

[My3Sons]

Not really . The NHL change the rules because of the 10 to 12 year deals . RNH wanted 6x6 and the Oilers have many needs so they wanted to get that down . They gave RNH what he wanted but got 2 extra years for 2.5 per to bring the cap down . Basically the same things team did with those 12 year deals . Give extra years to bring down the cap

That makes sense. 6x6 would be what I expected. In that context it was a good move for both sides. It's good to see players be reasonable and a team be reasonable rather than squeezing each other.

 

[Torontonian]

Some of the numbers from EW look correct, but others look totally off.

Montour @ 5x5 is way off,
Hyman @ 7 years 6.8m per is way off
Ceci @ 3 years 3.5m is off
Danaut @ 7 years 6.3m I believe is way off
Tatar @ 3 years 5.4m

I guess if its taking into account a rising cap over the years some might not be as bad, but still I think they projected a lot higher then what a player would make. I also think with the flat cap, you are going to see a lot more team friendly contracts for players because they want stability in a flat cap world.

 

[Mickey Marner]

Some of those EW values are crazy high.

 

[Toews2Bickell]

I wonder if the Capfriendly data was scraped or collected manually. Very impressive and a cool way to look at the “wisdom of the crowd” in action

always wondered how teams would do if they utilized 'fans' more and sort of tested out the widsom of crowd theory and drafted based on consensus ranking vs using a board their own internal scouts built...studies have shown that if you aggregate rankings/projections and compare accuracy versus a single projection that the crowd is more accurate on average...don't know if it would work as well for ufa market because contracts are signed based on future production so the aav/term implicity has production baked into it, idk if nhl teams have really figured out a scientific way to approach it, a lot of deals seem to be comparative analysis

 

[Bourne Endeavor]

6.3M for Danault? Oh, boy. That will be a disappointing contract before the ink even dries.

 

[banks]

The fan numbers are going to look pretty low. Using the Armchair GM simulator is for when your making an "I wish" type scenario. A user will almost always put in a low number to squeeze someone in.

There's no way some of those players go as cheap as the fan number projects. And understandably so.

 

[McShogun99]

To be fair, the fan consensus was off as well. It was a weird contract. It's almost like both sides figure he has five or six years left and then a couple of dead seasons at the end to lower the cap hit. I'll be curious what the payout structure is and if it is lopsided whether it eventually coincides with RNH hanging up his skates or going on LTIR.

I thought he was going to get 6-6.5 from Edmonton and 7-7.5 from another team.